May 3, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
19-20*  ?
43%
29%
20%
3%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 224
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:00 AM
Another interesting RAS Puzzle, the arrangement promises us several ways to 'Cut our Way' to a Dozen Points; how many ways, let us count the ways . . . nevermind: that's a good homework assignment.

If it were Our Crib, we could simply Toss (5 J) into our Crib (that was the Offensive Option yesterday, remember?) but sadly, it's not our Crib today. Is RAS trying to confuse us? Oh, it's worse than that: I'm afraid he's trying to educate us!

Okay, we have several ideas today: Toss (8 J), Toss (2 J), Toss (2 8). I tend to like these in the order listed, and so let's stop there, because breaking up the RUN or unleashing a 5 Card seems not worth analyzing, not while we're on First Street.

The chance to get a helpful Cut increases greatly when we hold the Four-Card RUN, and Toss (8 J) seems like a reasonably safe discard, considering the alternatives. With 11 Club Suits unaccounted for, that means the Dealer has an 11 DIV 46 equals 0.23913 or about a 24% chance of hitting that Cut for Nobs. Let's not worry about that (did you think it was 25%? Be honest!), for as they say: "Misplaced Precision Stifles Initiative" (a good concept to remember, in Cribbage and in Life).

What if I simply said that Keep (2 3 4 5) not only represents our best Expected Average for our Hand today, but that simultaneously, the corresponding Toss (8 J) represents the safest of the three aforementioned Discard Choices on most Crib Value Charts by about eight to ten places (out of ninety-one possible discards)?

Let's not over-think this one! Toss (8 J), and after the rather unfortunate Jack Cut let's lead our Trey Today (only because I like the alliteration). We might also consider leading the 4 Card. Or the Deuce. That about covers it, I think.

Notice that that woeful, misbegotten Jack Cut immediately TRIPLES our Opponent's lead on the board, from One Hole to Three Holes! Also remember: Misplaced Precision . . .
JQT says: One other factor we should keep in mind prior to the Cut is that both a 7 Card Cut and a 9 Card Cut not only MINIMIZE our own Hand Score, but either of these Cuts could very likely be helpful to the 8 Card we sent packing 'over the board' today. The Jack Cut is possibly as bad, since it only adds one (more) point to our Hand than those other two Cuts (7 Card and 9 Card), and not only did we also throw a Jack, but 'His Heels' (or maybe you call it, "Nibs" depending on your upbringing and your ZIP Code) might conspire to help the Dealer more than any other Cut! Therefore, a case can be made for leading the 4 Card and pegging a bit more defensively as a result of that Jack Cut, as well. When we are Pone, we should always be mindful of potential Cuts that might simultaneously diminish our own potential, while also possibly 'amplifying' the strength of our Opponent's Crib.
JQT says: Correction: The Jack Cut ... adds TWO (more) points to our Hand than those other two Cuts (7 Card and 9 Card) [not one (more) point, as stated] but (aside from the fact that I cannot do basic arithmetic at 5 a.m.) the logic is still applicable.
Eolus619 says: thx John...good advice on positional awareness
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:39 AM
I'm averse to discarding Jacks to my opponent, maybe this is a bias I need to overcome? If the X card had been a Q or K, then I would have kept the four card run.

I suspect mine will be a lone voice today, but I'd like to try 2-3-5-J (4-8) on for size despite the fact 3-4-5-J (2-8) starts with an extra point.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:41 AM
That would be nine cards earns us a dozen. We should be ok if we peg accordingly. Start with the middle of the run on lead. dec
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Monday 5:46 AM
J 8 to dealer’s crib seems to be the least helpful throw for him whilst retaining a good hand.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 6:03 AM
What I felt like doing. Will look forward to the comments and numbers on today's possible discards.
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 6:28 AM
A gut reaction. Wondering whether 2-8 or 2-J is actually a better toss? What to lead? If I lead the 3 or 4 and the dealer pairs it, that's a pegging war that I'll lose. Lead the 2 then ditch the 5 when possible.
MiketheExpert
1093 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Monday 6:51 AM
Almost didn't realize it was the opponent's crib. don't like keeping a single 5 that's not working for me. If the face card was a Q or K, then I would very likely throw it with the 8, but not so with the J. Why not keep 1 point more in your starting hand, with an additional chance to get an extra point with 11 cut cards in the deck. 2 8 is a good throw into the opp's crib. J cut rewards us for keeping this in our hand. We are already behind almost a full cycle at the beginning of the game, so use a safe strategy for pegging here and don't give up too many.
MiketheExpert says: Would also like to add, the only cut that doesn't improve your hand at all here is a 9. And it is not only the 11/46 chance of me getting an extra point, but the same chances of giving the crib that extra point by throwing the J which makes me hesitate just that much more when J's are involved.
Eolus619 says: Mike...your toss avoids the self inflicted disaster of dealer sending a 2-3 or 5-J to own crib...feeling more remorseful as I ponder my 8-J toss and found this while trying to solve my "bug' [not cured yet] about how Hal "thinks" which is a question you asked several days ago HAL_1700 uses an unvarying strategy - OPTIMAL - whereas HAL_1800 uses board position to determine its strategy for discarding and pegging. Unlike HALSCRIB for the PC which exhaustively computes all possible pegging sequences for all possible hands, both HALs are rule-based for pegging decisions because of time and space limitations. all the best
MiketheExpert says: Thanks for the insight Eolus. Interesting to see the results over time with these 2 strategies...Clearly HAL_1800 has a more advanced computation and adapts and chooses differently depending on the game situation. In the long run it *should* work better in the long run, providing it changes its strategy appropriately. The *statistics* don't seem to bear that out, and we know that always using an "optimal" strategy, although won't give you the best result all the time, is certainly better than using the "wrong" strategy in a given situation. Maybe this means it is worthwhile to avoid playing the (supposedly) inferior HAL_1700 in rated game situations, as opposed to the more advanced incarnation. Certainly causes some food for thought :)
Eolus619 says: i will say this about both ...there is a much higher frequency of high scoring hands than one would expect in face to face live play...and FOR SURE..either version often starts first hand with a total score of over 16 ..regardless if Hal is dealer on n/d..have come to expect being as much as 16-20 points behind after first hand is counted
Eolus619 says: i have lost track of how many times I have lost a game as dealer, with score in the range 111*-105, holding enough for me to go out and having n/d score at least 16 to win on first count
JQT says: Usually, we have a bias to remember such events as these better than we remember all of the times we did simply as we expected to do, which is win from such a Relative Position. However, if this is really happening to you a LOT, notice that if you could simply score maybe half-a-dozen more points during those prior 111 Holes, that you could actually "surrender" around TWICE THAT MUCH to your Opponent, and yet WIN by pegging out as the Dealer from Hole 117 or Hole 118! That is a facet of the game which is well within your ability to control; conversely, having Pone get dealt a Sixteen-Point Hand in Cribbage is NOT something over which you will ever have *any* control. Keep working actively on your Positional Awareness, starting at Hole Zero!
Eolus619 says: very good counsel indeed ...thx
Eolus619
1312 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 6:57 AM
... First the pegs...19-20*..29*-36...44-46*...best to start working on trying to turn position to our advantage by hole 70. Now Ras..geeez..with this puzzle the potential discards 8-J, 2-8 & 2-J are all vulnerable to the top ten most frequent dealer discards to own crib. It’s like you have been paying attention to your own empirical evidence these last 80 years or so! I get James observation about tossing Js across the board ( he may very well be “right” today) but the 2-3-4-5 run gets help from all the ranks ..13/13...btw...dealer sending a J to own crib is troublesome with this cut but if a 2-3 was sent ..yikes ..and I will need a designated pegger to help me from self destructing with this closely bunched keep.
Eolus619 says: from Ras..ten most frequent dealer discards to own crib in order 1-10 ..7/8,2/3,6/9,6/7,A/2,A/3,6/8,8/9,7/9 & Q/K
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 7:11 AM
2345 improves on any cut, and the 8J does not work well with each other, although agree with others in a reluctance to throw a Jack. 3458 would be my second choice as a possible 14 hand, but not to throw 2J. Actually 28 could also be relatively safe, and only a 9 would not help 345J. So in short a tremendous puzzle that maybe boils down to personal style.
SallyAnn3
881 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Monday 12:13 PM
It's early, so I thought of keeping the run and trying to outpeg them, but then went this way since I held one of the 5's away from the toss


SallyAnn3
881 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Monday 12:15 PM
It's early, so I thought of keeping the run and trying to outpeg them, but then went this way since I held one of the 5's away from the toss


Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 4:51 PM
I think it's between 3-4-5-J (2-8), 3-4-5-8 (2-J) and 2-3-4-5 (8-J):

3-4-5-J: 5pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = 0pt

3-4-5-8: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = +¼pt

2-3-4-5: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -½pt

Potential:

3-4-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/1012pts with 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 19 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-4-5-8: Improves with 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10/12/14pts with 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 23 cuts.

2-3-4-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if it is third deal and both of us have underperformed.. If opponent scores 14pts or more they will be target to reach 44pts or more the deal after next. So I'll play Defense and try to keep them as short as possible.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well but playing Defense I think 3-4-5-J will peg slightly best.

Summary:

3-4-5-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt and although it does not have the most cuts for improvement it has 23 cuts for 8-14pts. 2-3-4-5 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-12pts but even so I don't think it will catch up the ¾pt to 3-4-5-8. So I'll throw 2-J.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:59 PM
At 19-20* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
2-3-4-5_____8.57+(-2.67)+(-4.58)=1.32____56.0____45.8
3-4-5-J_____8.20+(-2.63)+(-4.53)=1.04____52.4____44.1
3-4-5-8_____8.09+(-2.91)+(-4.56)=0.62____53.2____44.0

Defense______L8 %____L9 %
2-3-4-5_______51.3____33.5
3-4-5-J_______51.0____35.5
3-4-5-8_______51.5____35.6

2-3-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.28pt. It is also slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
3_____________________2.43
2_____________________2.30
4_____________________2.29
5_____________________1.88
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 8:21 PM
HalscribCLX says it all for me this day. Am thinking defense when looking at the pegs and these six cards, once seeing the starter card will shift gears upwards (dealer got two pegs for turning that Jack and it matches my discard for a pair), lead the trey, and take pegs as offered.
Ras2829 says: The cribbot came up with a different picture than the hand described. That sounds like something more fitting for me. Suppose the puppet master pulled the wrong string?