May 3, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
19-20*  ?
43%
29%
20%
3%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 224
JQT
3069 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:00 AM
Another interesting RAS Puzzle, the arrangement promises us several ways to 'Cut our Way' to a Dozen Points; how many ways, let us count the ways . . . nevermind: that's a good homework assignment.

If it were Our Crib, we could simply Toss (5 J) into our Crib (that was the Offensive Option yesterday, remember?) but sadly, it's not our Crib today. Is RAS trying to confuse us? Oh, it's worse than that: I'm afraid he's trying to educate us!

Okay, we have several ideas today: Toss (8 J), Toss (2 J), Toss (2 8). I tend to like these in the order listed, and so let's stop there, because breaking up the RUN or unleashing a 5 Card seems not worth analyzing, not while we're on First Street.

The chance to get a helpful Cut increases greatly when we hold the Four-Card RUN, and Toss (8 J) seems like a reasonably safe discard, considering the alternatives. With 11 Club Suits unaccounted for, that means the Dealer has an 11 DIV 46 equals 0.23913 or about a 24% chance of hitting that Cut for Nobs. Let's not worry about that (did you think it was 25%? Be honest!), for as they say: "Misplaced Precision Stifles Initiative" (a good concept to remember, in Cribbage and in Life).

What if I simply said that Keep (2 3 4 5) not only represents our best Expected Average for our Hand today, but that simultaneously, the corresponding Toss (8 J) represents the safest of the three aforementioned Discard Choices on most Crib Value Charts by about eight to ten places (out of ninety-one possible discards)?

Let's not over-think this one! Toss (8 J), and after the rather unfortunate Jack Cut let's lead our Trey Today (only because I like the alliteration). We might also consider leading the 4 Card. Or the Deuce. That about covers it, I think.

Notice that that woeful, misbegotten Jack Cut immediately TRIPLES our Opponent's lead on the board, from One Hole to Three Holes! Also remember: Misplaced Precision . . .
james500
2842 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:39 AM
I'm averse to discarding Jacks to my opponent, maybe this is a bias I need to overcome? If the X card had been a Q or K, then I would have kept the four card run.

I suspect mine will be a lone voice today, but I'd like to try 2-3-5-J (4-8) on for size despite the fact 3-4-5-J (2-8) starts with an extra point.
dec
5237 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 4:41 AM
That would be nine cards earns us a dozen. We should be ok if we peg accordingly. Start with the middle of the run on lead. dec
RubyTuesday
707 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 5:46 AM
J 8 to dealer’s crib seems to be the least helpful throw for him whilst retaining a good hand.
dgergens
829 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 6:03 AM
What I felt like doing. Will look forward to the comments and numbers on today's possible discards.
Gougie00
4624 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 6:28 AM
A gut reaction. Wondering whether 2-8 or 2-J is actually a better toss? What to lead? If I lead the 3 or 4 and the dealer pairs it, that's a pegging war that I'll lose. Lead the 2 then ditch the 5 when possible.
MiketheExpert
34 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Monday 6:51 AM
Almost didn't realize it was the opponent's crib. don't like keeping a single 5 that's not working for me. If the face card was a Q or K, then I would very likely throw it with the 8, but not so with the J. Why not keep 1 point more in your starting hand, with an additional chance to get an extra point with 11 cut cards in the deck. 2 8 is a good throw into the opp's crib. J cut rewards us for keeping this in our hand. We are already behind almost a full cycle at the beginning of the game, so use a safe strategy for pegging here and don't give up too many.
Eolus619
333 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Monday 6:57 AM
... First the pegs...19-20*..29*-36...44-46*...best to start working on trying to turn position to our advantage by hole 70. Now Ras..geeez..with this puzzle the potential discards 8-J, 2-8 & 2-J are all vulnerable to the top ten most frequent dealer discards to own crib. It’s like you have been paying attention to your own empirical evidence these last 80 years or so! I get James observation about tossing Js across the board ( he may very well be “right” today) but the 2-3-4-5 run gets help from all the ranks ..13/13...btw...dealer sending a J to own crib is troublesome with this cut but if a 2-3 was sent ..yikes ..and I will need a designated pegger to help me from self destructing with this closely bunched keep.
Jazzselke
1784 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 7:11 AM
2345 improves on any cut, and the 8J does not work well with each other, although agree with others in a reluctance to throw a Jack. 3458 would be my second choice as a possible 14 hand, but not to throw 2J. Actually 28 could also be relatively safe, and only a 9 would not help 345J. So in short a tremendous puzzle that maybe boils down to personal style.
SallyAnn3
334 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Monday 12:13 PM
It's early, so I thought of keeping the run and trying to outpeg them, but then went this way since I held one of the 5's away from the toss


SallyAnn3
334 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Monday 12:15 PM
It's early, so I thought of keeping the run and trying to outpeg them, but then went this way since I held one of the 5's away from the toss


Coeurdelion
4539 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 4:51 PM
I think it's between 3-4-5-J (2-8), 3-4-5-8 (2-J) and 2-3-4-5 (8-J):

3-4-5-J: 5pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = 0pt

3-4-5-8: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = +¼pt

2-3-4-5: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -½pt

Potential:

3-4-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/1012pts with 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 19 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-4-5-8: Improves with 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10/12/14pts with 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 23 cuts.

2-3-4-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if it is third deal and both of us have underperformed.. If opponent scores 14pts or more they will be target to reach 44pts or more the deal after next. So I'll play Defense and try to keep them as short as possible.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well but playing Defense I think 3-4-5-J will peg slightly best.

Summary:

3-4-5-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt and although it does not have the most cuts for improvement it has 23 cuts for 8-14pts. 2-3-4-5 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-12pts but even so I don't think it will catch up the ¾pt to 3-4-5-8. So I'll throw 2-J.
HalscribCLX
4285 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:59 PM
At 19-20* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
2-3-4-5_____8.57+(-2.67)+(-4.58)=1.32____56.0____45.8
3-4-5-J_____8.20+(-2.63)+(-4.53)=1.04____52.4____44.1
3-4-5-8_____8.09+(-2.91)+(-4.56)=0.62____53.2____44.0

Defense______L8 %____L9 %
2-3-4-5_______51.3____33.5
3-4-5-J_______51.0____35.5
3-4-5-8_______51.5____35.6

2-3-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.28pt. It is also slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
3_____________________2.43
2_____________________2.30
4_____________________2.29
5_____________________1.88
Ras2829
4089 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 8:21 PM
HalscribCLX says it all for me this day. Am thinking defense when looking at the pegs and these six cards, once seeing the starter card will shift gears upwards (dealer got two pegs for turning that Jack and it matches my discard for a pair), lead the trey, and take pegs as offered.