June 8, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118*-114  ?
64%
9%
7%
6%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 233
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:12 AM
Keep two points to start and keep the peggers.
JQT says: We could only count those Two (or ANY) Points AFTER Pone has scored First Hand Show, and therefore, while the ability of the 9 Card PAIR to PEG is possibly very significant today, the actual scoring of our Hand (as we're the Dealer) shall most likely never occur. This may indeed be the best pegging hand, but our task today is to peg THREE HOLES, and NOT to peg the MOST POSSIBLE. This is NOT an easy puzzle!
Rosemarie44 says: I agree with your analysis.
Rosemarie44 says: As you stated in paragraph 6 and your summation, it is important to score early and that is best done with a variety of cards
JQT says: As Pone is farther away from being able to reliably go out with First Hand Show, say perhaps if Pone were at Hole 111 as opposed to Hole 114, then holding Two Points vis the PAIR of 9 Cards begins to have real merit. Then, I might Keep (4 9 9 K) or maybe even Keep (9 9 Q K); if we didn't then get that "go" and self-PAIR those 9 Cards, now we might instead be able to actually *defend* during the pegging, and survive to show our Hand. But I would *still* be primarily holding such cards for the PEGGING scenario and not the scoring potential, as it would be exceedingly rare to first not peg more than One Hole AND THEN ALSO not score ANY points in BOTH the Hand and Crib! I've seen it happen, and I've had it happen to me, but a big Double-Zero Total after pegging the prerequisite One Hole as the Dealer is actually very seldom seen. Just imagine being at Hole 119 after pegging a few and scoring a ZERO Hand, and then flipping over a Crib with 'Nothing but Nobs' in it! Those are the kinds of Cribbage Endgames in which I snap a photo or take a screenshot at the end, and then place in my Cribbage Endgame Battle folder: it's thus kind of a 'Cribbage Game Graveyard' of failed attempts.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:22 AM
7+4 = 11, 7+9 = 16.
Keep both nines as Pone is less able to have any of their own. Even less so now a third has been cut.
JQT says: Pone may indeed be dealt various concoctions of (5 5 X X X X) and thus could get all 'jammed up' by the commonly-used "Magic Eleven" and/or "Sweet Sixteen" tactics, but: Pone will AVOID falling for these IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. Pone however will have the awful burden of trying to hold onto AT LEAST Seven Points, which might make your strategy a viable one. But I do believe your premise here does involve having Pone being dealt a rather poor selection of cards; but hey, look what WE picked up today!
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:37 AM
Prefer to keep one of each here over the double 9-not a great chance to run the nines for 3 at the end of pegging so the value is in keeping the picture -would obviously pair a 7 or 9 lead here as we have backups to both but would be very hesitant to match a 4 lead here
JQT says: Having NOT looked at any other postings until AFTER my own was made: This is a very good and succinct encapsulation of what I proceeded to 'blabber on' about (below), although I would definitely POUNCE upon a 4 Card Lead and PAIR the living daylights out of it! Pone's most common motivation(s) when leading a 4 Card involve the fact that only another 4 Card can score upon it, and that it normally 'chases away' a 5 Card Reply; although today, if we had a 5 Card, it would allow us to maybe 'squeak by' and WIN spectacularly at a Final Score of perhaps (121-119)!
mrob2199 says: JQT I would normally agree with you about a 4 match but with this particular hand we really have 3 horrendous reply options if Pone does indeed have a 2nd 4-better to play the 7 and see where the play progresses IMO
JQT says: If we can get to Hole 120 by allowing (120-120) at a Count of Twelve, granted: we may not win the battle for the "go," but since we can bring the Count up over Fifteen (I would play our King for a Count of Twenty-Two), I think the benefits slightly outweigh the risks; because the risk of NOT PAIRING means that we might passively never peg more than a single point.
Eolus619 says: Rob…so the logic is …Pone leads 4…you reply with a seven ..making the score 11..…Pone decides to reply with a four ..15/2….you reply with your four scoring two for a pair..is this your thinking ?
Eolus619 says: and upon further thinking about this .what hand configuration . that included pairs, would you be inclined to keep ..thx
SallyAnn3 says: Yay! I held it the same way. This is a sign that I am going to beat you in Brookline (am waking up from my dream now lol)
mrob2199 says: LOL Sally -yes Bruce that’s my thinking on that
Eolus619 says: thx Rob
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:39 AM
Needing to score just Three Points to WIN as the Dealer seems like an advantageous position, especially since Pone is Seven Points away from that same goal, and this gives us plenty of 'wiggle room' to peg as we must.

It also means that Pone has such a high certainty of 'closing the gap' with First Hand Show, that it compels us to end this game during the pegging. Therefore, nothing matters about our Hand Score or our Discard Decision or our Crib, other than how it affects our PEGGING.

And then, we look at our splendid arrangement of AWFUL CARDS! We do enjoy the aspect that, since having been dealt NO Jacks, we have a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance that a Jack shall be the Cut Card, ensuring our VICTORY, since unless Pone can peg out FIRST, the Dealer shall *always* peg at least One Hole for either a "go" or for Last Card.

But this is an Ugly Pegging Arrangement! Egads. These cards were not only born in the Cribbage Ugly Tree, but in addition, they hit every branch on the way down! Let's carry on, anyway.

Pone has the burden of leading, and so we have the first "swing at the bat" in order to score and put points on that board! This is very important because, just as when we Cut a Jack, if we can score Two Points with our FIRST CARD PLAYED, we shall essentially clinch VICTORY, as we shall also still have that One Point coming our way in ALL cases.

The benefit of being able to score FIRST is maximized by not only holding as many unique cards as possible, but possibly holding cards that could score with the most frequency. For example, a 7 Card scores upon either a 7 Card or an 8 Card Lead, and in fact all cards ranked Five and Higher have this 'duplicitous' nature.

Since we have been dealt TWO 9 Cards, there might be some inclination to Toss (9 9), as it's plain to see that the odds that the Dealer was even dealt a 9 Card are now halved. However, since a 9 Card *also* can score upon a 6 Card Lead, it's not such an easy calculation to Toss (9 9). We are almost certain (read the above) NOT to need the Points from the 9 Card PAIR, and so it's likely we shall discard at least ONE of those 9 Cards, but we shouldn't throw away BOTH of them too readily.

In fact, a very strong case could be made for holding the 9 Card PAIR, and it is as follows: as the pegging draws near its completion, often a "go" will ensue such that one player "plays out" the remainder of his or her cards, and then, if the other player is still holding a Higher-Ranking PAIR, this is a very well-known technique that can somewhat reliably score Three Points!

We may even wish to discard our 4 Card in order to maximize the chances of such a play occurring. For a wise opponent will indeed retain some "small" cards today, but a rookie might hold ONLY "small" cards! But I like to assume we are up against the strongest opposition here at "Hand of the Day." And this end-of-pegging PAIR idea may have some merit, if not today, some other day. I feel therefore that it is not however our best option here and now.

Let's examine why holding one 9 Card may make sense today: in Cribbage, all Ten Cards (or "X") have a rank or "Count" equal to Ten, and thus, both our Queen and King, aside from being able to PAIR a Queen or King, respectively, can in addition only score upon a 5 Card Lead. Not only is this a DUPLICATION in coverage, but holding onto BOTH of these Ten Cards would entail retaining cards of low pegging value.

But Pone is HIGHLY MOTIVATED to hold such cards today in order to minimize our pegging, and so a Queen or especially a King could actually surprise us (and our Opponent!) and be the actual 'goal getter' and game winner today! Still, I believe that holding ONE of our 9 Cards (with its possible potential for a 7-8-9 Run) is probably more valuable than one of those Face Cards. But which one?!

Pone would likely opt to retain a King as opposed to a Queen, and so this would bring me to believe that Toss (9 Q) is the best option today. After the 9 Card Cut, we might almost wish we had decided to Toss (9 9) after all, but that 9 Card Cut just may induce Pone into leading a 6 Card or a 9 Card.

Aside from our very solitary 4 Card, we have no other "small" cards, and so unless we can score upon the Lead Card, or score VERY EARLY, our chances of winning this game may be in jeopardy.
Eolus619 says: John…with this board position what keep, that included pairs , would you be inclined to hold
JQT says: Only very High Value PAIRS make absolute sense here, such as (A A), (3 3), and perhaps (5 5), where we might use them both to attempt 'taking a 'swing' at (15=2). However, backed into a corner, as I indicate (above), if we were dealt say (9 T J Q K K) or some such group of high-ranking cards, I might Keep (9 T K K) in order to try to self-PAIR at the end of the pegging. Or if I had (7 7 8 T K K), I might just try Keep (8 T K K), since the 8 Card 'covers' any 7 or 8 Card Lead, and then I could try to PAIR my own Kings. (If I needed Four Points, I would lean toward retaining a RUN, or a potential RUN, however.) These are simply 'off the cuff' examples and probably not ideal, but playing against strong Cribbage Programs in such positions has shown me the power of sometimes being able to self-PAIR at the end of the pegging when three points are needed to WIN (or to get in position to increase the odds of Winning).
Eolus619 says: Thank you!
Eolus619 says: Thank you!
Eolus619 says: Yikes. Your reply was worth only two TY!
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:16 AM
Pair the King . Best chances are involved in that 7-9 or the miracle fifteen for five. dec
Eolus619 says: congrats dec on climbing back in to the ecribbage top ten…nice win % 56.9
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:40 AM
The discussion above regarding the pairing of the 4 lead to me is is a very intriguing one. When I started playing competitively, I polled the best players about today's exact scenario: 3 points out as the dealer. Most said you might not get another chance for 2 points, so you should pair the initial lead. Over the years, some players, as Rob mentions, say not so fast. Of course, if you are 4 points or more out, you have no choice. But 2 or 3 points away is where a crucial decision is required. The cut card, the composition of your 3 remaining cards,the speed in which the first card is played, and the body language of your opponent can all be considered. So these factors may provide a different answer depending on what you onbserve.
Jazzselke says: ...observe.
Eolus619 says: Congrats on ACC Silver 2/3 last night .
Jazzselke says: Thanks. We had a great match!
mfetchCT425 says: Congrats both of you!
Eolus619 says: thx Mike…wondering if in cribbage there is an equivalent to a hockey assist ..as i feel i propelled him in to the finals !
SallyAnn3 says: WTG on SILVER last night :)
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:56 AM
First things first …congrats to Jazz on his ACC Silver last night. I extended him to three games but fell 121-115. And dec has managed to climb back into the ecribbage top ten rankings. Congrats to him.

From my notes , several top players have approached this type of hand with …”one of each” with spacing if possible. ..so that is my keep today. Valuable discussion about paring a four lead. Thx to the commenters for that.
Eolus619 says: actually most cribbage players would not use a knife ( a paring one at that) to discard ..better make it PAIRS ..or JAT might accept PEARS
Eolus619 says: geez ,what meant …JQT..what a morning
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:04 AM
"One of the each" like my friend Claude would say. The opponent is too close and I need to peg out. What a mess of cards but the opponent won't be able to figure out what I have either. Attack anything that presents itself.

BTW, new computer and eCribbage refuses to load. Something about drivers harmful to my computer. Susan is happy. No more online cribbage for a while.

4th day in a row of 90 degree temps in northern Massachusetts.
mfetchCT425 says: Hi Greg, you can reach out to Damien Blond, creator of eCribbage. In the past, he has been helpful to me with fixing connectivity issues.
Eolus619 says: hello..if you are using Windows ..you should be able to override that” “warning “ .
SallyAnn3 says: Greg: when you get the green launch button, RIGHT click on it and go down the menu to choose "open in incognito window"
SallyAnn3 says: Soemtimes, it is the JAva updates that lock you out. This is the way that I have to launch now (it will all be grayed out, but the buttons are still in the bottom left corner). It's best to keep a shortcut on your desktop of the launcher.
scottcrib says: I keep a shortcut of the java link on my desktop and it works great. Just right click on it and select Open.
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:16 AM
I would normally hold one of each in this situation, but I had this sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that if I held 4-7-9-K (9-Q in crib), that I would cut a card that wouldn’t help hand or crib-and I peg only one, and fall short even after pone was short. Maybe too much “if” scenarios and should have gone with my first inclination of holding one of each.

Great discussion above on the pairing of the 4 lead. I usually like being aggressive in these situations, but I definitely see Rob’s point above with the particular cards we have today. Very difficult decisions that could make the difference between qualifying in a main tournament or missing by one win and signing up for the consolation tournament. What a great card game!!
Eolus619 says: so…Pone leads a four ..and you reply with ?….thx
Eolus619 says: my thinking is ..Pone leads 4..my reply is a seven ..Pone , if holding another four plays it for 15 and then I pair it (less risk now ) for two
JQT says: If you play this Crazy Game long enough . . . Oh My, yes! I have seen any number of occasions in which (and I have even logged several via Print Screens on my seldom-used Facebook pages) a game and a position such as this one GOES ON TO YET ANOTHER DEAL! We could actually be favored today at (118*-114), and land a fortuitous (31=2), and then suddenly find ourselves NOT favored at (120-119*)! It Happens.
MiketheExpert says: So, one point in favour of keeping the K that I discovered (although I would still keep the (4799) as shown in my evaluation, is the 4 lead that has been talked about. This would enable me to think about playing off a 4 lead if I was also holding a face card, as well in conjunction with the 7. The sad truth, however, with the score being the way it is, it is very risky to play off any responses and leave yourself just short of pegging out. So, I think I would most likely have to pair the 4 lead regardless, and even then I still have some hope as this leaves n/d at 120...We are therefore tied 120-120, leaving next pt to win..Here, we may slightly rather having a face card, but my bet is that now we are likely to lose the game before we can score our go. This is a similar reason to why I tossed the face to begin with. If I kept the Q or K, and he chose to lead with one, being THREE away from pegging out, I feel I would be forced to take a chance by pairing one of those...But now the difference is an automatic loss if n/d has the 3rd one for trips.
JQT says: I would tend to agree, going from (118-114) to (120-120) and likely being the next player who could score, it would seem to be if not ideal, at least a scenario in which we stood having a chance over our own destiny. Passing up the initial PAIR means it could go from (118-114) to (118-116) and now, even if we do score that PAIR "on the rebound," with a score at maybe (120-116), we could *still* lose quite easily after saying "go" to a Pone that self-PAIRS or plays a RUN and a "go" in succession. And while I normally admonish not being patient, at Hole 118 is where my patience typically has completely run out!
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:20 AM
I threw Q K as I just liked the look of the hand afterwards. Not a very scientific reason!
MiketheExpert
1122 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:20 AM
Your best chance here would appear to be throw Q K. Keep your magic 11 and keep at least 2 pts in your hand in case you cannot peg out and live to see the count of your hand. If you keep either the Q or K and pone starts by leading them, you do not want to be put into the situation where you may have to pair one of these leads, as this may cause you to lose the game immediately (121-120) if he has the 3rd to score his 7. Not so with the 9, have no worries about pairing an opening lead of 9, even he has another one, you will keep a 4 for the win. I would technically like to keep 4 different ranks if possible, but once again the face cards do not do much for you here, and then you will be forced to leave 0 pts in your hand. Even if n/d happens to lead a 5, you have a pretty good cover with the 7. A face card to make the count 22 will leave you with a 9 for 31 to peg out, and I think this keep gives you as many bases as you can cover.
MiketheExpert says: It is true here that the odds of winnng probably don't change much if it makes it to the count of n/d hand anyway, and your odds of getting zeroed on BOTH hand and crib are miniscule anyway...so it is MORE not about the fact that you would keep 0 points in your hand that you should worry about, but that there is not a great amount of added benefit here to keeping the Q or K (at least in my opinion). All things considered, I would still usually like to keep 4 different ranks if one of the 4 were any other card.
JQT says: And, there is always the slight but REAL risk of landing a (31=2) "on the nose" after a "go" during which we might very well, unwittingly and simultaneously, surrender our ability to secure 'Last Card,' and thus we could come up 'short' at Hole 120 by using a "Magic Eleven" or a "Sweet Sixteen." For this reason, scoring any PAIR, plus our obligatory Last Card or "go," beats hitting (31=2) 'on the nose' in such positions as Dealer at Hole 118. (From one who has been there, and done that, and cried a river of tears upon the tee shirt...)
MiketheExpert says: I've got another food for thought...Let's say in fact you had to decided to keep your 9 pair (tossing the Q K), how would you proceed if pone in fact does lead a face card here. (4 7 9 9). Which of these 3 ranks would you play? I would honestly lean towards playing the 4 next. Yes, you are bringing the count to under 15, however you could have an increased opportunity for self-pairing here at the end. Let's say he pairs your 4 or plays an A for 15. THEN next you follow with the 7, making the count 22. If he only has face cards left, you go on to play the 9 for 31. HOWEVER, if he has small cards left, you may be able to run him out, as you cannot play your remaining 9's. Then you play your pair of 9's at the end of play to score your 3 points. In some ways to me, that is why this holding is almost better to me than holding the face card and having to pair him from the beginning, as it risks losing on his next response.
JQT says: All good points I believe: eventually, we I think we must admit that any arguments or disagreements over how to peg properly here are actually disguised agreements about the fact that we were simply dealt a lousy hand today.
MiketheExpert says: I'm not too surprised to see the results with HalsCrib and Coeurdelion that holding 4 different values wins the day with them, as far as technically pegging out for 3 points, it will win the day. 4 7 9 9 gives you the next best chances for peg out, however I took some other factors into my decision, namely the chances of n/d pegging out to win right away among the lead of a Q or K, and I guess I factored in some slight hope as well that if you were unable to peg out, you would still have chance, however small to make it to your hand count, albeit it would be very difficult to hold pone to under 7 points with pegging and hand score, however I've seen much crazier things happen. So even so, I'll stick to my original plan and keep (4 7 9 9 ) here. This is a great endgame learning example submitted by Andy, and I thoroughly enjoyed the discussions today. Keep them coming! :)
MiketheExpert says: 114 for n/d, this was the exact right score for n/d to have with my 118 to make the decision so tough! :) If he had 1 pt less (113), I would be keeping the 4 different cards, as at this point he is far enough back than I am willing to take that extra risk of pairing the Q or K on opening lead..If he was at 116, there is virtually no chance of making it to your hand count, and so I am only considering the chances of pegging out, which would lead me to the same conclusion! Keep the 4 different cards. Crazy game of numbers cribbage is sometimes, how the exact specific score will change your mindset in these endgame scenarios! :) That's part of the beauty of the game, in my opinion!
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:46 AM
Kept the 9, threw the K.
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:00 AM
I would pair a 4 if led by pone.
scottcrib says: I'm not real clear on why keeping the K is better than the Q. I guess if pone is playing defensive (assuming they have enough to go out), then they are probably keeping the K and maybe that's why we should as well.
JQT says: From Pone's perspective, holding a Queen might allow either: T-J-Q or J-Q-K to be pegged; holding a King only allows the latter. Therefore, if Pone is dealt both Queen and King, there is a BIAS to retain the King, as it's (perhaps only nominally) thought to be a bit safer. Of course, Pone knows that we know this as the Dealer, and so some clever players do gravitate toward holding a Queen in such instances. This is especially important when two players are very familiar with one another, and therefore, such imaginative, psychological 'Spy vs. Spy' Cribbage Psy-Ops has probably cost more than one marriage...
scottcrib says: Thanks John.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:20 AM
My choice of strategy is aggressive offense. Have a real dilemma here as there is only one card among these six that has high peggin value, and no four cards here average more than 1.5 pegs. Dealer needs three pegs to win although there is a chance that n/d could be limited to 6 holes. What are odds of holding n/d to no more than 6? That's 1 of 6. With these cards, dealer pegging three is about 1/3. So will go for the pegs. Will take the first two pegs offered. If n/d does not have a fist full of X-pointers, might keep the King as an escape card in preference to any other. So got to use a bit of reverse psychology here to hold that in preference to the Queen. I see no difference in the potential peg total for 4-7-9-Q and 4-7-9-K, both being far short of three pegs on average. Not much chance to play 9-9 back to back; so having a fourth card (K) ought to add just a bit of pegging value.
Ras2829 says: Andy (muesli64) has provided so many fine end-game puzzles on this site for years. This is a wonderful example of that. Thanks much Andy!
Ras2829 says: The HalscribCLX dealer pegging percentages reflect the dealer average of 3.5 for pegging with all sets of cards. Could it be? Cribbage Prof query just ran and the Prof shows with these cards, choosing on offense pegging strategy the greatest number of pegs is gained by 4-7-9-K and 4-7-9-Q and that number is 1.5. Sorry HalscribCLX, think the Prof pegging numbers are based on these six cards specifically and that matches my scant data.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:39 PM
Heads-up:

Monica's tournament tomorrow(June 9) 11am PDT

Fun, free, 6 games.

Hard to win - but a nice group there, usually 70-ish players.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:41 PM
I don't think we can hope that Pone will peg/hold less than 7pts so I think we must look to peg 3pts. I think we need to keep 4 different cards while 4-7-9-Q has a magic eleven.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:44 PM
At 118*-114 playing an Optimal strategy (cautious offense) for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s are:

Optimal_________Our Peg Out %
4-7-9-Q_____________65.7
4-7-9-K_____________65.7
4-7-9-9_____________59.1
7-9-Q-K_____________58.0
7-9-9-Q_____________57.3
7-9-9-K_____________56.2
4-7-Q-K_____________53.3
4-9-9-K_____________52.5
4-9-9-Q_____________52.5
4-9-Q-K_____________50.7
9-9-Q-K_____________47.4

4-7-9-X is best for Our Chances of Pegging Out so I'll throw a 9-X.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:44 PM
GNXXXVI
127 votes

Joined: August 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:41 PM
yup