June 8, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118*-114  ?
64%
9%
7%
6%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 233
Rosemarie44
1894 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:12 AM
Keep two points to start and keep the peggers.
james500
2884 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:22 AM
7+4 = 11, 7+9 = 16.
Keep both nines as Pone is less able to have any of their own. Even less so now a third has been cut.
mrob2199
678 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:37 AM
Prefer to keep one of each here over the double 9-not a great chance to run the nines for 3 at the end of pegging so the value is in keeping the picture -would obviously pair a 7 or 9 lead here as we have backups to both but would be very hesitant to match a 4 lead here
JQT
3111 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:39 AM
Needing to score just Three Points to WIN as the Dealer seems like an advantageous position, especially since Pone is Seven Points away from that same goal, and this gives us plenty of 'wiggle room' to peg as we must.

It also means that Pone has such a high certainty of 'closing the gap' with First Hand Show, that it compels us to end this game during the pegging. Therefore, nothing matters about our Hand Score or our Discard Decision or our Crib, other than how it affects our PEGGING.

And then, we look at our splendid arrangement of AWFUL CARDS! We do enjoy the aspect that, since having been dealt NO Jacks, we have a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance that a Jack shall be the Cut Card, ensuring our VICTORY, since unless Pone can peg out FIRST, the Dealer shall *always* peg at least One Hole for either a "go" or for Last Card.

But this is an Ugly Pegging Arrangement! Egads. These cards were not only born in the Cribbage Ugly Tree, but in addition, they hit every branch on the way down! Let's carry on, anyway.

Pone has the burden of leading, and so we have the first "swing at the bat" in order to score and put points on that board! This is very important because, just as when we Cut a Jack, if we can score Two Points with our FIRST CARD PLAYED, we shall essentially clinch VICTORY, as we shall also still have that One Point coming our way in ALL cases.

The benefit of being able to score FIRST is maximized by not only holding as many unique cards as possible, but possibly holding cards that could score with the most frequency. For example, a 7 Card scores upon either a 7 Card or an 8 Card Lead, and in fact all cards ranked Five and Higher have this 'duplicitous' nature.

Since we have been dealt TWO 9 Cards, there might be some inclination to Toss (9 9), as it's plain to see that the odds that the Dealer was even dealt a 9 Card are now halved. However, since a 9 Card *also* can score upon a 6 Card Lead, it's not such an easy calculation to Toss (9 9). We are almost certain (read the above) NOT to need the Points from the 9 Card PAIR, and so it's likely we shall discard at least ONE of those 9 Cards, but we shouldn't throw away BOTH of them too readily.

In fact, a very strong case could be made for holding the 9 Card PAIR, and it is as follows: as the pegging draws near its completion, often a "go" will ensue such that one player "plays out" the remainder of his or her cards, and then, if the other player is still holding a Higher-Ranking PAIR, this is a very well-known technique that can somewhat reliably score Three Points!

We may even wish to discard our 4 Card in order to maximize the chances of such a play occurring. For a wise opponent will indeed retain some "small" cards today, but a rookie might hold ONLY "small" cards! But I like to assume we are up against the strongest opposition here at "Hand of the Day." And this end-of-pegging PAIR idea may have some merit, if not today, some other day. I feel therefore that it is not however our best option here and now.

Let's examine why holding one 9 Card may make sense today: in Cribbage, all Ten Cards (or "X") have a rank or "Count" equal to Ten, and thus, both our Queen and King, aside from being able to PAIR a Queen or King, respectively, can in addition only score upon a 5 Card Lead. Not only is this a DUPLICATION in coverage, but holding onto BOTH of these Ten Cards would entail retaining cards of low pegging value.

But Pone is HIGHLY MOTIVATED to hold such cards today in order to minimize our pegging, and so a Queen or especially a King could actually surprise us (and our Opponent!) and be the actual 'goal getter' and game winner today! Still, I believe that holding ONE of our 9 Cards (with its possible potential for a 7-8-9 Run) is probably more valuable than one of those Face Cards. But which one?!

Pone would likely opt to retain a King as opposed to a Queen, and so this would bring me to believe that Toss (9 Q) is the best option today. After the 9 Card Cut, we might almost wish we had decided to Toss (9 9) after all, but that 9 Card Cut just may induce Pone into leading a 6 Card or a 9 Card.

Aside from our very solitary 4 Card, we have no other "small" cards, and so unless we can score upon the Lead Card, or score VERY EARLY, our chances of winning this game may be in jeopardy.
dec
5280 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 5:16 AM
Pair the King . Best chances are involved in that 7-9 or the miracle fifteen for five. dec
Jazzselke
1817 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:40 AM
The discussion above regarding the pairing of the 4 lead to me is is a very intriguing one. When I started playing competitively, I polled the best players about today's exact scenario: 3 points out as the dealer. Most said you might not get another chance for 2 points, so you should pair the initial lead. Over the years, some players, as Rob mentions, say not so fast. Of course, if you are 4 points or more out, you have no choice. But 2 or 3 points away is where a crucial decision is required. The cut card, the composition of your 3 remaining cards,the speed in which the first card is played, and the body language of your opponent can all be considered. So these factors may provide a different answer depending on what you onbserve.
Eolus619
372 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 5:56 AM
First things first …congrats to Jazz on his ACC Silver last night. I extended him to three games but fell 121-115. And dec has managed to climb back into the ecribbage top ten rankings. Congrats to him.

From my notes , several top players have approached this type of hand with …”one of each” with spacing if possible. ..so that is my keep today. Valuable discussion about paring a four lead. Thx to the commenters for that.
Gougie00
4669 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:04 AM
"One of the each" like my friend Claude would say. The opponent is too close and I need to peg out. What a mess of cards but the opponent won't be able to figure out what I have either. Attack anything that presents itself.

BTW, new computer and eCribbage refuses to load. Something about drivers harmful to my computer. Susan is happy. No more online cribbage for a while.

4th day in a row of 90 degree temps in northern Massachusetts.
mfetchCT425
870 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:16 AM
I would normally hold one of each in this situation, but I had this sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that if I held 4-7-9-K (9-Q in crib), that I would cut a card that wouldn’t help hand or crib-and I peg only one, and fall short even after pone was short. Maybe too much “if” scenarios and should have gone with my first inclination of holding one of each.

Great discussion above on the pairing of the 4 lead. I usually like being aggressive in these situations, but I definitely see Rob’s point above with the particular cards we have today. Very difficult decisions that could make the difference between qualifying in a main tournament or missing by one win and signing up for the consolation tournament. What a great card game!!
RubyTuesday
735 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 6:20 AM
I threw Q K as I just liked the look of the hand afterwards. Not a very scientific reason!
MiketheExpert
76 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 7:20 AM
Your best chance here would appear to be throw Q K. Keep your magic 11 and keep at least 2 pts in your hand in case you cannot peg out and live to see the count of your hand. If you keep either the Q or K and pone starts by leading them, you do not want to be put into the situation where you may have to pair one of these leads, as this may cause you to lose the game immediately (121-120) if he has the 3rd to score his 7. Not so with the 9, have no worries about pairing an opening lead of 9, even he has another one, you will keep a 4 for the win. I would technically like to keep 4 different ranks if possible, but once again the face cards do not do much for you here, and then you will be forced to leave 0 pts in your hand. Even if n/d happens to lead a 5, you have a pretty good cover with the 7. A face card to make the count 22 will leave you with a 9 for 31 to peg out, and I think this keep gives you as many bases as you can cover.
jmudge
203 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Tuesday 7:46 AM
Kept the 9, threw the K.
scottcrib
595 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 8:00 AM
I would pair a 4 if led by pone.
Ras2829
4131 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 10:20 AM
My choice of strategy is aggressive offense. Have a real dilemma here as there is only one card among these six that has high peggin value, and no four cards here average more than 1.5 pegs. Dealer needs three pegs to win although there is a chance that n/d could be limited to 6 holes. What are odds of holding n/d to no more than 6? That's 1 of 6. With these cards, dealer pegging three is about 1/3. So will go for the pegs. Will take the first two pegs offered. If n/d does not have a fist full of X-pointers, might keep the King as an escape card in preference to any other. So got to use a bit of reverse psychology here to hold that in preference to the Queen. I see no difference in the potential peg total for 4-7-9-Q and 4-7-9-K, both being far short of three pegs on average. Not much chance to play 9-9 back to back; so having a fourth card (K) ought to add just a bit of pegging value.
JCM
642 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 1:39 PM
Heads-up:

Monica's tournament tomorrow(June 9) 11am PDT

Fun, free, 6 games.

Hard to win - but a nice group there, usually 70-ish players.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up
Coeurdelion
4584 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:41 PM
I don't think we can hope that Pone will peg/hold less than 7pts so I think we must look to peg 3pts. I think we need to keep 4 different cards while 4-7-9-Q has a magic eleven.
HalscribCLX
4322 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:44 PM
At 118*-114 playing an Optimal strategy (cautious offense) for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s are:

Optimal_________Our Peg Out %
4-7-9-Q_____________65.7
4-7-9-K_____________65.7
4-7-9-9_____________59.1
7-9-Q-K_____________58.0
7-9-9-Q_____________57.3
7-9-9-K_____________56.2
4-7-Q-K_____________53.3
4-9-9-K_____________52.5
4-9-9-Q_____________52.5
4-9-Q-K_____________50.7
9-9-Q-K_____________47.4

4-7-9-X is best for Our Chances of Pegging Out so I'll throw a 9-X.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
HalscribCLX
4322 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:44 PM
GNXXXVI
105 votes

Joined: August 2020

   
Tuesday 10:41 PM
yup