June 10, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
72*-84  ?
47%
36%
6%
6%
2%
Total votes: 244
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:06 AM
Dealing at Two Holes beyond the Third Street 'par' Hole 70 means we are at least 'on target' to possibly reach the end of the board in two more complete sets of "Three Counts." However, with our Opponent just a Dozen Holes shy of the Fourth Street 'par' Hole 96, this means that our chances of being the first player to cross that Finish Line are in some peril.

More than pure DEFENSE, however, I think our Relative Position calls for a Discard Decision with ACCURACY. The FLUSH is an attractive choice, as it might peg a bit more safely, but with one "lone" Trey, it might NOT. Nobody can gainsay the Toss (5 J) Dealer Discard, but we can begin with an Extra Point in Hand if we instead Toss (3 5), which is also a very good discard.

I think Toss (3 5) is a more logical way to 'split' this bunch, since we have Eleven Cuts (555, JJ, QQQ, KKK) that could boost our Hand up to Fifteen Points or MORE! Meanwhile, we get rid ourselves of the Lone Trey "small" card pegging risk, and simultaneously hunt for a RUN in our Crib.

It's as though we were in the Final Lap of the Daytona 500, and even though we must attempt to finish the race on a dangerous curve, it's no time to let up on the pressure: we can often best defend our position on the track by keeping the pedal all the way down to the metal.

The Queen of Clubs Cut pushes our Hand up to Seventeen Points, is guaranteed to boost our Crib, and perhaps just as importantly as anything else, looks to be unlikely to help our Opponent. We may begin Next Deal as Non-Dealer at or beyond Hole 95, and we could even surprise ourselves and move an ENTIRE STREET during This Deal!

I would probably PAIR any Jack or Queen Lead, but I might also try to 'dodge' a King Lead with a Jack Reply, and 'duck' a 9 Card or Ten Card "T" Lead with a King Reply.
james500 says: Hi John, hope you're well. I know that in addition to cribbage, you're a real chess aficionado. I wonder if you could help me with something. The YouTube algorithm recommended the following video to me for some reason, but surely it can't be a legal play? (apologies for the music by the way, maybe play with the sound off). https://youtu.be/bTS9XaoQ6mg
JCM says: Hi James: odd video - but I think that's just White's way of surrendering. ---Black will capture White's rook pawn and next be in position to ultimately queen his knight pawn.----Rather than play all that out, he makes that illegal move in lieu of tipping his King over in surrender. --- That's my take, anyway.
JQT says: During the Covid Year and the Netflix Movie, The Queen's Gambit, Chess is having such popularity, several Twitch and YouTube commentators have become millionaires just covering the action with creative content. This includes Tik Tok videos full of Chess Humor and all sorts of silly entertainment, such as the Bong Cloud Opening actually being played online by titled players in a six-figure money tournament. They're often joking around, laughing all the way to the bank, and I am just sad that Cribbage hasn't even 0.01% of this Viral Action. We need to start saving our games, and analyzing them, and if someone were to do this cleverly online, they could get many followers (I would do it if I needed the income, but I retired at age forty, over two decades ago). Just as an example, Hikaru Nakamura and Levy Rozman and the Botez Sisters all have millions of followers, and have signed contracts with major eSports companies, and are probably pulling down incomes that rival World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen, and former World Chess Champion, Garry Kasparov! The database of Chess Games goes back to the 1600s, and while Cribbage began in that era, sadly we have ZERO games to study, and perhaps the best Cribbage Player Ever, DeLynn Colvert, has recently passed on with perhaps only a dozen or so annotated games as his complete legacy. It's just sad and tragic that Cribbage receives zero energy, promotion, or ongoing development and technological advance.
JQT says: If you do wish to study modern Chess Theory, I would recommend Levy Rozman, of "GothamChess" and any of his courses. He covers ongoing tournament play, and he is thoroughly entertaining, having just recently surpassed a million subscribers. And beware: Any video that is a minute or less is probably a Comedy Segment from TikTok! Ref: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQHX6ViZmPsWiYSFAyS0a3Q
Hillchem says: Thanks for the link; I’m going to definitely check it out also. I recently started getting interested in chess because my son wanted to start playing.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 3:06 AM
Interesting puzzle James-we will be looking for a 5 or picture cut no matter how we decide to break it up-the deciding factor for me on this hold is having the 3 as an out card for the 3 pictures-with pone at the dangerous position of 84 I don’t want to be forced into any pegging duels-the 3 could help me avoid that
JQT says: Initially I liked the FLUSH, but if Pone leads the ubiquitous Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card, we might feel compelled to 'Play Off' the lead with a Face Card reply, and then be FORCED to unload that Trey at a Count of anywhere from Twenty-Two to Twenty-Four, which can be very risky. Thus, I felt this is one of those rare instances in which the FLUSH was actually more dangerous and less defensive than the Double Run.
mrob2199 says: Obviously the dealer cannot defend everything-but keeping all pictures yields 4 points to a 5678 pone hand-instead of holding him scoreless if you have a 3 to counter
MiketheExpert says: hi mrob. You are absolutely right, not everything can be defended. Even worse, he may have some crazy hand keep like 8-4-4-4 or 9-4-4-4! Can you imagine that? Then if pone leads the 8 or 9, you have to play a face!...Then he gets to run his 3 remaining 4's for a huge score, scoring 9 or 10 unanswered pegging points! It's all a matter of odds, and how many holdings can cause these results, because you just can't defend EVERY scenario, no matter what!
MiketheExpert says: How about 9-3-3-3! You can forget about it...It's goodbye and goodnight. A smart pone leads his 9, you are forced to play your face, then he runs his 3 three's...And his hand is so good anyway, this one is practically over, :)
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 3:11 AM
3-5 seems a decent discard, with plenty of cards having immediate synergy. Double runs can grow very large if the cut is alike.
Sacrificing a point in hand for the flush with the J-5 discard seems a tiny bit better to me though.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:22 AM
Great puzzle James. Chose to hold the double run for 8 points rather than 7 points (Flush). Tossing 3-5 is worth around 5.97 points vs. suited 5-J is worth around 7.00 points. The Flush and the double run are very close in expected averages with the run slightly ahead.
The difference is that the run has 15 cuts that increases the hand to 10, 15, or 17 points.
Rosemarie44 says: I agree the run is more defensive that the Flush.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 4:20 AM
With my opponent at 84 I like the three as a out card. With that queen cut its defense to the lead.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:23 AM
Need some defense to keep them short on their next par goal. Flush in the hand and flush in the crib one can dream. dec
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:59 AM
I love drunk with power hands because you cannot really make a mistake. Behind by 12, I really need back-to-back Home Runs. I kept the flush.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:01 AM
Like the added pegging flexibility of this hold over the all faces hold. Plus 5-J (suited) is slightly stronger in our crib. We have some nice points coming our way, but ultimate goal is to hold pone back from that mid-90s range.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on SILVER in ACC on Tuesday! See you in Brookline :)
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Sally! Look forward to seeing you in Brookline! Safe travels!
SallyAnn3 says: :)
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 6:13 AM

Nice puzzle James..still working that early rise advantage against us in the colonies. Ras has a mini tutorial about double run hypnosis which is worth the read ..

http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen9.asp

Today I am taking one point from my hand to send the powerful 5-J to my crib. 2,3,5 & Ten/face help hand …J,Q & K get my double run back …Face/ten & 5 also help my crib.

Now having to play offense as well as defense ..as Gougie00 says..try doing that! ….good luck

72*-84…88-94*…98*-110..114-120*



Eolus619 says: oh..another other point ..when it comes to pegging, one thing Rob & I have in common is we both start out with four cards
SallyAnn3
904 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 6:28 AM
I flushed the flushed. Should stick with my first thought. Who am I going to meet in Brookline?
mfetchCT425 says: I’ll find you Sally! :-)
SallyAnn3 says: Ha! If I don't find you first :)
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:28 AM
Pegging flexibility as mentioned by a few....
RubyTuesday
908 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Thursday 6:29 AM
I was going to keep the double run but then looked at the discard tables and decided to keep the flush instead.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 7:07 AM
It pays to flush, and always love the 5-J to my crib. TBH, both choices are great!
fentesk
1197 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Thursday 8:21 AM
I'd like to sign up to receive this hand enough times in games to fully test it out and get empirical values. I promise to share results.

I liked having the 3 for pegging.
MiketheExpert
1116 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Thursday 8:51 AM
There are many situations in which keeping the flush (1 less starting point) than keeping the double run in this case I would like to keep, which enables me to throw a better throw into my crib, or keep a better pegging hand. It is true throwing 5 J here gives you a somewhat better crib, and I like throwing the J especially along with my 5, and keeping a "slightly" better pegging hand by keeping a small card. But sometimes, you have to look at the overall picture of where you are and where your opponent is on the board. Today is not one of those days I am going to keep the flush. I am not usually "in love" with keeping double runs, but I think you really need to give yourself a chance to cut for a maximum score here. You are a long way behind, and need EVEN MORE than you are likely to get by keeping the flush in this instance. You are not likely to score a bunch of pegging points with EITHER hold here, the flush or the run...And so, I am really of a 5, J, Q, or K....I think it is a little too much opportunity to pass up in this situation.
MiketheExpert says: And the Q saves the day, and most likely gives us the advantaged, being well positioned for our next deal, providing he does not hold much above average hand. We can even stomach up to 12 combined points for n/d here after our cut, but not too much more than that.
MiketheExpert says: Apologies for my poor typing skills today...Above, I am trying to say, I am looking for one of those cuts which will give me maximum scores here (such as a 5, J, Q, or K).
MiketheExpert says: I also wanted to add something else here. Before I got the nice "Q" cut, I wanted to give myself a chance for a maximum, but I did not forget about my opponent...I was prepared to play "defense" in this situation as well by maintaining the double run. And the reason being that keeping ONE small card (such as the trey here), is actually more of a defensive liability sometimes as compared to keeping ALL faces...There is also a danger of this card becoming trapped should pone decide to lead a deuce or 4...and the reason is, you are most likely going to want to play a face card next if you are playing defense. What happens if he next pairs your face, or plays another high card...you are then UNABLE to play your face, and forced to play your 3. There is a chance he may have one or even more that he can play at this stage, or other cards which will lead to him scoring a run that you cannot prevent. So as well as me thinking I need to score a lot and catch up, this may satisfy both your offensive and defensive needs a little better here.....
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 10:21 AM
Am choosing an optimal strategy to include the pegging since n/d is sitting at hole 84 and want ot keep nd/short of 4th street CPZ (95-99). Admittedly a double run of face cards has little pegging potential in any choice of strategy. Generally cards that total 40 points will pick up two "goes". Choosing optimal pegging strategy, pegs are net (dealer-minus non-dealer) and will be preceded by a minus with these cards. This double run has too much scoring potential for the stronger 5-J discard to overcome. Will take reasonably safe pegs. That means would pair or score 15-2 with the JD on any five lead. Would not pair a King or Queen lead; would take my chances dumping the JD. Will play the JD on any other lead. With dealer guaranteed peg, 17 point hand, and a frequent 6 in the crib with 3-5 discard, dealer will be at hole 96. So very important not to give up double pair royals here. I'll chance the run of three by playing a Jack on a Q or K lead. Combined values (pegs, hand score, and crib score) favor holding the double run by about .6 of a point based on my scant empirical evidence.
Ras2829 says: Sorry "double pairs royal" above should read "pairs royal" for six pegs. Don't think you would get a way with pegging 12 for the fourth X-point card. Have seen the fourth 8 score 31-14 a couple of times in tournament play.
wasa says: Hi RAS. If I was playing cribbage and someone put down a 4th 8 and claimed 32 for 14 I'd get mad at them for cheating. I assume you mean a 4th 7 or 6 for 31-14 :-)
MiketheExpert says: Hi RAS. I agree, I do not want to give up 6 points here, especially after the cut which likely will put me into a very good position on the next deal pending the crib results of our 3 5 toss, and we may even have hope of gaining a step and putting ourselves in a position to reach hole 121 over the course of the next 2 deals, after the count of our next crib.. I don't want to bring n/d any closer to enabling him to count out before us, and now there is a very big difference between giving up a run of 3, or a pair royal for 6 which I'd try to avoid doing at all costs now.
MiketheExpert says: 4 8's adding to 31 sounds like one is trying to get away with something, while the other one can add none too well :) My hats off for the person who can pull this one off, because you're right, for the 4th X-card I don't think you're going to away with it! :)
Ras2829 says: Hi wasa: Saw four 8's played for 31-14 at the world's largest tournament over the years. Some folks come in just to play the JPW Open in Reno. Some of their math skills are rudimentary at the best - this is two occasions over 25 years that I have observed. In the one case, the person who had been just scored on scratched their head, and said "I don't believe that has ever happened to me before!" In the other case, there wasn't even a shrug of the shoulders.
Ras2829 says: Just to clarify am choosing optimal strategy when looking at the pegs, when looking at the cards, and downshift to defense to include the pegging after seeing the starter card.
GNXXXVI says: Sorry, got the biggest chuckle out of the 31 for 14. Clearly math taught in a CA school.
fentesk says: Seeing the cribbot's values, it drives home the need to not get too devoted to static crib tables. The 3-5 and J-5 discards are nearly even for hand average and static crib value (16.44 vs. 16.39) - though perhaps not pegging - but the bot shows the dynamic value of J-5 has dropped to 6.5 (from 7.0 or 7.09) while 3-5 drops to 5.85 (from 5.97 or 5.98) giving a meaningful edge to the double run today. I am a bit surprised 3-5 didn't suffer a larger drop than it did (though I would have expected J-5 to have the larger drop of the two), but in bot I trust.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 11:37 AM
This was hard choice insofar as I was 50/50, I just had to choose one. RAS and JQT say I didn't make the best choice. So once again, curious to see Hal's numbers.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 2:32 PM
I think its between the flush, the double-run and 9pts:

3-JD-Q-K: 7pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 14pts

J-J-Q-K: 8pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 14pts

5-JC-Q-K: 9pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.90) = 12¾pts

Potential:

3-JD-Q-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 555 + 12xXs = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/13pts with 2222, 555, JJ, QQQ, KKK = 15 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush and 1pt extra for his nob = 2x9/46 = 0.39pts.

J-J-Q-K: Improves with 555 + 12xXs = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 15/16pts with 555, JJ, QQQ, KKK = 11 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds and 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 20/46 = 0.43pt.

5-JC-Q-K: Improves with 555 + 12xXs = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 16/17pts with 555, JJ, QQQ, KKK = 11 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We're 2pts past 3rd street positional hole and opponent is 2pts short of where they would like to be. So I'llplay Offense but with caution.

Pegging:

I think both 3-JD-Q-K and 5-JC-Q-K will peg slightly better.

Summary:

Both 3-JD-Q-K and J-J-Q-K have the same starting value at 14pts while the flush has more cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 12/13pts compared to 11 cuts for 15/16pts. I think it will be close but I think the flush will peg slightly better so I'll throw the suited 5-J.
Coeurdelion says: Oops! Vote should be 3-JD-Q-K.
Coeurdelion says: Oops! Vote should be 3-JD-Q-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 2:37 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib__Total____W3 %____W4 %
J-J-Q-K____10.48+(-2.52)+5.85=13.81____26.0____41.8
3-JD-Q-K____9.39+(-2.70)+6.51=13.20____21.7____38.3
5-JC-Q-K___11.24+(-2.09)+3.61=12.76____19.8____34.2


Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
J-J-Q-K________38.6____45.5
3-JD-Q-K_______39.7____50.2
5-JC-Q-K_______41.8____54.9

J-J-Q-K is best for expected averages by 0.61pt. and is significantly best for Win %s and also for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the QC cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
GNXXXVI
127 votes

Joined: August 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 6:16 PM
Lordy we gots us a monster.