June 10, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
72*-84  ?
47%
36%
6%
6%
2%
Total votes: 244
JQT
3111 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 3:06 AM
Dealing at Two Holes beyond the Third Street 'par' Hole 70 means we are at least 'on target' to possibly reach the end of the board in two more complete sets of "Three Counts." However, with our Opponent just a Dozen Holes shy of the Fourth Street 'par' Hole 96, this means that our chances of being the first player to cross that Finish Line are in some peril.

More than pure DEFENSE, however, I think our Relative Position calls for a Discard Decision with ACCURACY. The FLUSH is an attractive choice, as it might peg a bit more safely, but with one "lone" Trey, it might NOT. Nobody can gainsay the Toss (5 J) Dealer Discard, but we can begin with an Extra Point in Hand if we instead Toss (3 5), which is also a very good discard.

I think Toss (3 5) is a more logical way to 'split' this bunch, since we have Eleven Cuts (555, JJ, QQQ, KKK) that could boost our Hand up to Fifteen Points or MORE! Meanwhile, we get rid ourselves of the Lone Trey "small" card pegging risk, and simultaneously hunt for a RUN in our Crib.

It's as though we were in the Final Lap of the Daytona 500, and even though we must attempt to finish the race on a dangerous curve, it's no time to let up on the pressure: we can often best defend our position on the track by keeping the pedal all the way down to the metal.

The Queen of Clubs Cut pushes our Hand up to Seventeen Points, is guaranteed to boost our Crib, and perhaps just as importantly as anything else, looks to be unlikely to help our Opponent. We may begin Next Deal as Non-Dealer at or beyond Hole 95, and we could even surprise ourselves and move an ENTIRE STREET during This Deal!

I would probably PAIR any Jack or Queen Lead, but I might also try to 'dodge' a King Lead with a Jack Reply, and 'duck' a 9 Card or Ten Card "T" Lead with a King Reply.
mrob2199
678 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 3:06 AM
Interesting puzzle James-we will be looking for a 5 or picture cut no matter how we decide to break it up-the deciding factor for me on this hold is having the 3 as an out card for the 3 pictures-with pone at the dangerous position of 84 I don’t want to be forced into any pegging duels-the 3 could help me avoid that
james500
2884 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 3:11 AM
3-5 seems a decent discard, with plenty of cards having immediate synergy. Double runs can grow very large if the cut is alike.
Sacrificing a point in hand for the flush with the J-5 discard seems a tiny bit better to me though.
Rosemarie44
1894 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:22 AM
Great puzzle James. Chose to hold the double run for 8 points rather than 7 points (Flush). Tossing 3-5 is worth around 5.97 points vs. suited 5-J is worth around 7.00 points. The Flush and the double run are very close in expected averages with the run slightly ahead.
The difference is that the run has 15 cuts that increases the hand to 10, 15, or 17 points.
glmccuskey
3412 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 4:20 AM
With my opponent at 84 I like the three as a out card. With that queen cut its defense to the lead.
dec
5280 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:23 AM
Need some defense to keep them short on their next par goal. Flush in the hand and flush in the crib one can dream. dec
Gougie00
4669 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:59 AM
I love drunk with power hands because you cannot really make a mistake. Behind by 12, I really need back-to-back Home Runs. I kept the flush.
mfetchCT425
870 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 6:01 AM
Like the added pegging flexibility of this hold over the all faces hold. Plus 5-J (suited) is slightly stronger in our crib. We have some nice points coming our way, but ultimate goal is to hold pone back from that mid-90s range.
Eolus619
372 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Thursday 6:13 AM

Nice puzzle James..still working that early rise advantage against us in the colonies. Ras has a mini tutorial about double run hypnosis which is worth the read ..

http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen9.asp

Today I am taking one point from my hand to send the powerful 5-J to my crib. 2,3,5 & Ten/face help hand …J,Q & K get my double run back …Face/ten & 5 also help my crib.

Now having to play offense as well as defense ..as Gougie00 says..try doing that! ….good luck

72*-84…88-94*…98*-110..114-120*



SallyAnn3
369 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Thursday 6:28 AM
I flushed the flushed. Should stick with my first thought. Who am I going to meet in Brookline?
Jazzselke
1817 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 6:28 AM
Pegging flexibility as mentioned by a few....
RubyTuesday
735 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Thursday 6:29 AM
I was going to keep the double run but then looked at the discard tables and decided to keep the flush instead.
wasa
1998 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 7:07 AM
It pays to flush, and always love the 5-J to my crib. TBH, both choices are great!
fentesk
172 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Thursday 8:21 AM
I'd like to sign up to receive this hand enough times in games to fully test it out and get empirical values. I promise to share results.

I liked having the 3 for pegging.
MiketheExpert
76 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Thursday 8:51 AM
There are many situations in which keeping the flush (1 less starting point) than keeping the double run in this case I would like to keep, which enables me to throw a better throw into my crib, or keep a better pegging hand. It is true throwing 5 J here gives you a somewhat better crib, and I like throwing the J especially along with my 5, and keeping a "slightly" better pegging hand by keeping a small card. But sometimes, you have to look at the overall picture of where you are and where your opponent is on the board. Today is not one of those days I am going to keep the flush. I am not usually "in love" with keeping double runs, but I think you really need to give yourself a chance to cut for a maximum score here. You are a long way behind, and need EVEN MORE than you are likely to get by keeping the flush in this instance. You are not likely to score a bunch of pegging points with EITHER hold here, the flush or the run...And so, I am really of a 5, J, Q, or K....I think it is a little too much opportunity to pass up in this situation.
Ras2829
4131 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 10:21 AM
Am choosing an optimal strategy to include the pegging since n/d is sitting at hole 84 and want ot keep nd/short of 4th street CPZ (95-99). Admittedly a double run of face cards has little pegging potential in any choice of strategy. Generally cards that total 40 points will pick up two "goes". Choosing optimal pegging strategy, pegs are net (dealer-minus non-dealer) and will be preceded by a minus with these cards. This double run has too much scoring potential for the stronger 5-J discard to overcome. Will take reasonably safe pegs. That means would pair or score 15-2 with the JD on any five lead. Would not pair a King or Queen lead; would take my chances dumping the JD. Will play the JD on any other lead. With dealer guaranteed peg, 17 point hand, and a frequent 6 in the crib with 3-5 discard, dealer will be at hole 96. So very important not to give up double pair royals here. I'll chance the run of three by playing a Jack on a Q or K lead. Combined values (pegs, hand score, and crib score) favor holding the double run by about .6 of a point based on my scant empirical evidence.
dgergens
863 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 11:37 AM
This was hard choice insofar as I was 50/50, I just had to choose one. RAS and JQT say I didn't make the best choice. So once again, curious to see Hal's numbers.
Coeurdelion
4584 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 2:32 PM
I think its between the flush, the double-run and 9pts:

3-JD-Q-K: 7pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 14pts

J-J-Q-K: 8pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 14pts

5-JC-Q-K: 9pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.90) = 12¾pts

Potential:

3-JD-Q-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 555 + 12xXs = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/13pts with 2222, 555, JJ, QQQ, KKK = 15 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush and 1pt extra for his nob = 2x9/46 = 0.39pts.

J-J-Q-K: Improves with 555 + 12xXs = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 15/16pts with 555, JJ, QQQ, KKK = 11 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds and 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 20/46 = 0.43pt.

5-JC-Q-K: Improves with 555 + 12xXs = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 16/17pts with 555, JJ, QQQ, KKK = 11 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We're 2pts past 3rd street positional hole and opponent is 2pts short of where they would like to be. So I'llplay Offense but with caution.

Pegging:

I think both 3-JD-Q-K and 5-JC-Q-K will peg slightly better.

Summary:

Both 3-JD-Q-K and J-J-Q-K have the same starting value at 14pts while the flush has more cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 12/13pts compared to 11 cuts for 15/16pts. I think it will be close but I think the flush will peg slightly better so I'll throw the suited 5-J.
HalscribCLX
4322 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 2:37 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib__Total____W3 %____W4 %
J-J-Q-K____10.48+(-2.52)+5.85=13.81____26.0____41.8
3-JD-Q-K____9.39+(-2.70)+6.51=13.20____21.7____38.3
5-JC-Q-K___11.24+(-2.09)+3.61=12.76____19.8____34.2


Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
J-J-Q-K________38.6____45.5
3-JD-Q-K_______39.7____50.2
5-JC-Q-K_______41.8____54.9

J-J-Q-K is best for expected averages by 0.61pt. and is significantly best for Win %s and also for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the QC cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
GNXXXVI
105 votes

Joined: August 2020

   
Thursday 6:16 PM
Lordy we gots us a monster.