Sunday 3:24 AM

Yesterday, we could at least hold Four Points as the Dealer, and employ the "Small Hand Rule."

Today, we can only muster Two Points and, as long as we don't 'split up' our Ace PAIR, it appears we have no "Small Hand Rule" at our disposal. (Is there a "Dinky Hand "Guideline"?)

I have stated that Toss (A A) is frequently under-rated: it's like a movie with NC-17 content that 'slips in' with just an MA or an R rating!

But we may be throwing the Baby (Aces) away with the Bath Water (Deuce) if we 'split up' the (A A 2) combination and Toss (A A), which can also peg extremely well on some occasions. Then, since I believe we can dismiss Toss (6 K), it might be wise to compare Toss (6 J) with Toss (J K).

There's no doubt that Toss (J K) is a bit stronger of a discard than Toss (6 J); and Toss (6 K)? Well: that's what we would throw to the 'Other Guy'! Seriously, if we are going to place that 6 Card into our Crib, it may as well be packaged alongside the Deuce, as in Toss (2 6)! There's a Novel Idea!

Is Toss (2 6) a GOOD idea or a "thing" today? It could leave us with an interesting pegging hand, but I think the (A A 2) "wants" to be together, especially if we Cut a Deuce or a Trey. This harkens us back to Toss (J K).

I think Toss (2 6) might merit some attention today, but I find Toss (J K) to be more solid. After the 7 Card Cut, either choice seems to have been vindicated, and only the Toss (6 J) crowd, if there is one, might have regrets.

We should be very happy with Six Points here after the Cut! But one does wonder how the Toss (2 6) Crowd may fare in the Crib. We can only guess.

Meanwhile, let's hope we can respond FIRST with our 6 Card, and then peg a few points with our (A A 2) down the road.

   

Sunday 3:55 AM

Can’t see breaking the Aces from the 2. Don’t like the 6 with any 10 card to my crib. Maybe we can work the Aces into some pegging points.

   

Sunday 4:46 AM

I am probably off today but J-K is not the best toss to our crib: J-Q or T-J, are best. I chose my first pick, A-A-J-K and the higher value of 2-6 to the crib. Eighteen cuts gives hand 5, 6, or 10 points.

   

Sunday 4:52 AM

AA6K 2J for me.

All cuts bar a non heart 10/Q are helpful.

KA and K6 sixteen, or maybe I can get my Aces in back to back if the count gets high.

   

Sunday 5:11 AM

Middle cards play better as possibilities in the crib. Fours and aces seem the goal for cuts for me. dec

   

Sunday 5:13 AM

I kept the AA2 together to prevent a 3 cut. Not really liking J6 but tossed it anyway.

Good Luck to anyone playing in Brookline. See you there maybe.

   

Sunday 5:53 AM

Not sure what's been going on the past few days, but it seems the pickings have been pretty slim on these hands..oh well, at least this is right at the beginning of the game, so nothing to fear, right? I had 3 possibilities actually with this that I was debating..toss the middle cards (2 6), or keep the double run possibilities intact, and with this one I was actually debating between (6 J) and (J K). Eventually, with a little bit of hesitation and self-doubt, I decided on the (J K) toss to my crib. Why the hesitation you may ask? After all, now it seems I've got my bases fairly well covered, as a lot of small and middle cards help my hand, while hopefully the crib will get the large cuts taken care of in combination with mine and pone's throw into the crib, where one or more face cards are going to be a very likely throw by him at the beginning of the game. My hesitation is actually due to the pegging, and my risk of starting a pegging war right at the first hand of the game, which is something you generally don't want to do. Specifically on the lead of a 4 by pone here into my (A A 2 6) keep. I remember there was a similar type of holding within the last week or two in one of the examples here, however I believe it was mid-game and most people decided they would rather avert the risk by tossing (5 Q), albeit a very good toss within your own crib. I decided I would take this risk on here on the very first hand, the alternatives being not so great here (namely 2 6 or 6 J), neither being of star calibre as far as discards go...So let's play some cautious offense here at the start, try to improve, and if the "dreaded" 4 card lead comes to pass, I'll go ahead and follow with the 2 and take my chances here....You only live once, right!

   

Sunday 5:53 AM

My first thought was to keep the small cards but ended up throwing 2 6 rather than J K to my crib. I

   

Sunday 6:07 AM

hmmm…if you are a Colvert follower at least dealer can try to play defense from this hand and also try to reach par hole eight. Some very good players have chosen different discards. I have no idea as to best hold. I am sending the J connector with the K & keeping A-A-2 -6 for pegging. The 7 cut gets me to now holding six…will attempt to peg the dealer average 3 -4 points and expect average 3-4 points from my crib. Par hole eight here I come.

   

Sunday 6:23 AM

For sure, the pair is not to be broken up. Then there is J-K, which should be kept together in case of a Q or 5 turn card. For me, keeping 'em or putting 'em into the crib is a moot (or is it mute) point.

The 7 turn card helps some.

   

Sunday 6:37 AM

Keep the pair together. Better for pegging. Doesn’t totally balk our crib.

   

Sunday 8:19 AM

Debated the J-K vs the 2-6

   

Sunday 11:27 AM

While it's probably not likely enough to matter, the idea of an opponent with four X cards pushed me to keep this hand to pick up those two 31-2s. I tend towards mid cards to my crib for a hand like this, though it felt like 2-6 and J-K are pretty similar today.

   

Sunday 3:59 PM

I think it's between 2-6-J-K (A-A), A-A-J-K (2-6) and A-A-2-6 (J-K):

2-6-J-K: 0pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 5¼pts

A-A-J-K: 2pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.93) = 6pts

A-A-2-6: 2pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.96) = 6pts

Potential:

2-6-J-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 7777, 9999, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 3/4pts with 3333, 5555, QQQQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-A-J-K: Improves with AA, 3333, 4444, 5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 5/6/10pts with AA, 3333, 4444, 5555, QQQQ = 18 cuts.

A-A-2-6: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/8pts with AA, 3333, 666, 7777, 8888 = 17 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think A-A-2-6 will peg best with 3 low cards and a middle card.

Summary:

A-A-2-6 and A-A-J-K have a starting value ¾pt more than 2-6-J-K and although 2-6-J-K has more cuts for improvement but only 12 cuts for 3/4pts compared to 17 cuts for 6/8pts with A-A-2-6 and 18 cuts for 5-10pts with A-A-J-K. A-A-2-6 also should peg better and although 2-6-J-K has 0.24pt for the nob potential I think I'll throw the J-K.

   

Sunday 4:04 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-A-J-K____4.33+(-2.09)+4.01=6.25____26.7____40.1
A-A-2-6____4.26+(-2.22)+3.95=5.99____26.4____35.5
A-A-2-K____4.17+(-2.26)+3.41=5.32____25.2____37.9
A-A-6-K____3.83+(-2.28)+3.73=5.28____24.7____38.2
A-A-2-J____4.41+(-2.28)+3.12=5.25____25.6____38.5
A-A-6-J____4.07+(-2.30)+3.44=5.21____25.1____39.2
2-6-J-K____2.07+(-2.15)+5.19=5.11____23.4____37.5

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-J-K_______26.8____32.5
A-A-2-6_______26.4____35.5
A-A-2-K_______27.8____35.0
A-A-6-K_______27.1____34.4
A-A-2-J_______27.3____34.3
A-A-6-J_______25.8____33.1
2-6-J-K_______25.5____34.4

A-A-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.26pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and second lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 2-6 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 5:03 PM

Appreciate all the great comments and insight on what appears to be a simple puzzle. Choice of strategy makes the choice for me. If choosing hand-one defense to include the pegging as dealer, toss 2-6 as pegs are minus (those scored on average by opponent), play off the lead though would pair an Ace if led. The hand grows a bit more than other holds, slightly fewer pegs are lost, and the 2-6 to crib has a slightly higher average (see HalscribCLX analysis above). In other positions where offense strategy to include the pegging was the choice A-A-2-6 would have a slight edge with three cards of high pegging value and one of moderate pegging value.