June 14, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
69*-80  ?
60%
34%
3%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 232
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 3:16 AM
I've spent q lot of time considering what cards to retain and what cards to discard with today's hand. That's not a good sign usually for me - giving too much thought results in the wrong decisions.
Tossing 3-4 to our crib has the best value but leaves a configuration that I am not happy to work with.
Tossing Q-K, while valued less, has a hand that has a higher expected average by about a point than 6-9-Q-K.
Seventeen cuts gives 3-4-6-9 six, eight or 9 points (333, 999; 5555, 666; 222).
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:45 AM
No synergy between 6-9 and Q-K, but it's a price I'm willing to pay in order to put 3-4 in my crib.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OOWZCrVymag/UIB3CpoavGI/AAAAAAAAB48/xNfLRby17LE/s1600/image01.png
Eolus619 says: ah yes ..intrinsic values ..good to be refreshed on those from time to time ..thx for the link
JQT says: You're in the 3% Club today, james500, and it's very rare to have such a small group who agree with Halscrib. Good Job! This might be in the category of "Over the Shoulder" type hand arrangements, in which many players become more concerned with what the onlookers might say, rather than rely upon the knowledge and training they have had. When playing in a room with many observers watching you discard (and playing online as well), sometimes we want to "fit in" more than we allow ourselves to calculate what we have studied and know. The more I think about this, I am inclined to maybe even create a category of discarding puzzles such as this, in which players might fear being DIFFERENT more than they fear being WRONG. You stayed the course here, however!
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:01 AM
I had a hand like this yesterday. Earlier in game and tighter positions. Lets put it this way I had a very good day so a course a five was cut and a Jack and King were in it also. Somedays you make the right guestimate. dec
SallyAnn3 says: Was great to see you again, and to meet S :)
SallyAnn3 says: and I just caught up on ACC results for the weekend, so CONGRATS on GOLD on Saturday :)
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:47 AM
This hand is a better pegger. Down 11, let's peg a bit.

Nice crowd at Brookline. 136 players.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on 3/4 in the consy! Was nice to meet you :)
Ras2829 says: HI Gougie00: Always nice to return home with more money in pocket than when leaving home. Do you share with your wife or is she the sole banker and bookkeeper in the house?
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 4:51 AM
As per Dec. Looking for Lady Luck here not empirical logic. Need a 5 cut and a J and Q/K in the box.
mfetchCT425
1383 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 5:54 AM
Put the 6-9 in the crib today. Pair of touching cards in hand. A , 2, 4, 5, J cuts help. Maybe 6-9 hits something in the crib.
Eolus619 says: dad gum it Mike ..goodness sakes alive..just when i had my go to discard for this dealt hand confidently in my mind you introduce this alternative ..food for thought for sure
SallyAnn3 says: I heeld it this way for the same reasons. My cards were horrid this weekend, but I was lucky to meet you :)
mfetchCT425 says: Hi Sally, I watched portions of a few of your games and saw some of those really bad looking hands you were getting. Nothing much you can do when you get those kind of cards. Was a great pleasure to meet you in person yesterday. And great to see Dan and David and others from the central region. Was a fun day if cribbage.
SallyAnn3 says: True. Can oly shrug it off and wish your friends good luck. Then there is Mr High Qualifer, ROB LOL. You did well with him and Selke for top 3 man team honors...:)
travelingman2019 says: Good seeing you again as well, Fetch........and I agree with this hold for the same reason, holding the 34KQ combo and assuring pts in the crib seems to me to be the odds on choice, yes 19 in the hand is possible.....again though pts in the crib and peg cards in the hand assure a total shutout will not happen and we could still be in the game........
Eolus619
1314 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 6:12 AM
I have played this hand either way in the past …tossing the Q-K or the 3-4. Over time i have decided discarding the Q-K is best for me. Keep 6-9-Q- K does not have enough cut help imo. Keep 3-4-6-9 is helped by 7/13 ranks and an additional & separate ( do not help the hand ) three more cuts help the crib. With this configuration I like the chances for a three card run too. Rosemarie gives more & better logic detail for our shared choice. As to board position…I am @ #3 threshold & Pone needs 16 to have the deck first @ #4. …if the cycle prevails the last hand of the game may look something close to this ..110-116*..dec explained how he got lemonade out of lemons with this keep.
Eolus619 says: JQT..nice puzzle emphasizing ….for the dealer, the crib is an extension of the hand ..the small hand rule & sacrifice limits ..all three in the decision mix today ..very educational imo
MiketheExpert
1095 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Monday 6:58 AM
You guys are killing me with these hands and board positions, lol. So...what's the best of another bad lot for about the 3rd or 4th consecutive day, let's see...hmm. I'd like to have 3 4 in my crib, but to me this leaves a totally unsatisfactory hand keep in the (6 9 Q K). Bad for pegging, and fairly bad for cut improvement as well. So it'll be between the (6 9) and (Q K) discards for me. Clearly (6 9) would be the preferable crib choice between these two, but what about what's left? (3 4 Q K).. I'm leaving ZERO points, admittedly with much better cut chances to improve, with the low and high-end run possibilities. But this keep really does not sit that well with me either. There is a possibility not to improve at all, and this is also a disappointing keep for your peg possibilities. This leaves (3 4 6 9). It is clearly the preferable hand for offense as far as improvement, and MUCH superior for pegging than any of the other holds. And let me tell you, we're in NEED of scoring any way we can after this deal. To me, this overcomes the somewhat sour tone of the (Q K) crib toss. I gotta go with this, once again grudgingly because of the score, but let's hope for something good to happen, being the optimist today :)
MiketheExpert says: And unfortunately, the 4 cut does not do it for us today....but I don't think it would have been ideal in any circumstance.
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 7:16 AM
I don't know if this puzzle really teaches us anything very conclusive about Cribbage, but I think it can be used to tell us a lot about the Cribbage Player.

We basically have three choices: Toss (3 4), Toss (6 9), or Toss (Q K). It looks simple; it seems meaningless. And yet if you don't enjoy such conundrums, you may not enjoy Cribbage! Much of the game involves what seem like trivial decisions.

The highest Crib comes after Toss (6 9), but it requires us to place ALL of the scoring potential into our Crib. If we have studied the game a bit, we know that Toss (6 9) is considered an "Also Ran" Dealer Discard by RAS, which means it's about the only way we can place points into our own Crib and still be producing a potentially low-scoring Crib.

Toss (3 4) behaves differently, and while it can certainly be grouped within the same end of the scale, in that it contains Zero Points, along with its "cousins" of Toss (6 7) and Toss (J Q), it can often turn NOTHING into SOMETHING. This is maybe how we could turn this "Lemon" of a card arrangement into "Lemonade."

Because it's one thing to Toss (6 9), which begins at Two Points, and reach an Average Crib of about 5.5 Points; but Toss (3 4), and also Toss (6 7) and Toss (J Q), regularly beat some PAIRS in our own Crib, and sometimes reaches an average of Five Points, in spite of starting out with NOTHING!

But the score is of concern, as we are not only trailing by Eleven Holes, but we are One Hole 'shy' of the Third Street 'par' Hole 70. And that may call for a balanced approach, whatever that may mean. I think it probably warrants Toss (Q K), as we might peg a bit better. But we may do so at the expense of our Crib. We may end up with a lousy Crib today, regardless of what we throw!

I think there are Relative Scores, or places on the board, that would call for Toss (Q K), and that this may be one of them. But I'll be honest: I think as long as we choose either Toss (3 4) or Toss (Q K), we are making a good decision, and the discard that you choose today maybe tells me more about you as a player than it indicates a clear right or wrong choice.

For the RAS article on "Star Power" see: http://www.cribbageforum.com/YourCrib.htm
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: An exceptional puzzle my friend!!!
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 8:27 AM
When looking at the pegs (69*-80), seeing these six cards, have nothing to defend, yet cannot bring myself to choose aggressive offense to include the pegging. So an optimal strategy feels just right (pegs are net). In order to gain +1 peg (none of the cards reach 1.5), need to hold 3-4-6. That solves the choice for RAS. Goodbye Q-K! Once seeing the starter card will shift to offense as seems of no benefit to Q-K in crib and only adds two points to hand score. Would pair a trey or four if led. Play the 9 on a deuce lead and play the trey on an Ace or five lead. On 6 or 9 lead, would score the 15-2, on an 8 lead would play the six, on a 7 lead, would play the 9. Don't want a X-point lead would play the 9 on Q-K , keeping 3-4-6 intact, and play the trey on 10-J. Actually even though Q-K is very low scoring ot own crib (3.483), the hand potential of 3-4-6-9 is so superior to 6-9-Q-K that combined values favor this choice by nearly two points. Looks like will be choosing an offense strategy for the remainder of this game. Don't despair - there's a faint glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
MiketheExpert says: Hi RAS. Just curious, if your outlook was aggressive offense to include the pegging from the outset, would you have chosen the same 4 cards from the outset, or does that now make the (Q K) toss too undesirable. As far as total pegs are concerned, I would think this hand still wins.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: As you suspect this would be the hand to hold regardless of strategy chosen. The superior potential hand score and the potential pegs make it the best choice available. This hand works that way. About 25-30% of hands flip-flop dependent on chosen strategy. Not so here!
Ras2829 says: Sorry - commented in reply to MiketheExpert without even checking what the numbers were for choosing a defense strategy. Of course HalscribCLX has it right if choosing defense. Retain that strange looking 6-9-Q-K. Think it interesting that the final choice of Hal is to play offense to the lead; so once the hand reaches that point, am in complete agreement with the cribbot. RAS chose optimal, optimal, and offense. Hal chose defense, defense, and offense.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 10:47 AM
Here to learn. But again, my gut is differences between choices are matters of degree and look forward to Hal's numbers to confirm or deny my feelings.
SallyAnn3
883 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Monday 11:48 AM
What fetch said...
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 12:10 PM
What Sally said...
SallyAnn3 says: lol. flying home at 4 a does that. CONGRATS on being in the top 8 in the Main in Brookline :)
mfetchCT425 says: Well done Dan! So great to see both you and Sally yesterday.
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Top 8 in 136!!! Put in that context, a fine weekend!
SallyAnn3 says: 138! lol
Jazzselke says: Thanks all, and great to see everyone.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 3:47 PM
I think the hand naturally breaks 3 ways - 6-9-Q-K (3-4), 3-4-Q-K (6-9) and 3-4-6-9 (Q-K):

6-9-Q-K: 2pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 7pts

3-4-Q-K: 0pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 5¼pts

3-4-6-9: 2pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.46) = 5½pts

Potential:

6-9-Q-K: Improves with 5555, 666, 999, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 5/6/8pts with 5555, 666, 999, JJJJ = 14 cuts.

3-4-Q-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 3/4/7pts with AAAA, 2222, 5555, JJJJ = 16 cuts.

3-4-6-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/9pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 666, 999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 3rd street positional hole and opponent needs 16pts to reach 4th street positional hole. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think all these hands will peg well but I prefer 3-4-6-9.

Summary:

6-9-Q-K has a starting value 1½pts more than 3-4-6-9 but it has the least number of cuts for improvement and only 14 cuts for 5-8pts. 3-4-6-9 has the second most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 6-9pts compared to 16 cuts for 3-7pts. So I think 3-4-6-9 will catch up the 1½pts and I'll throw the Q-K.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:53 PM
At 69*-80 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %___W4 %
6-9-Q-K____3.39+(-2.02)+4.93=6.30____2.5____16.3
3-4-6-9____4.35+(-2.15)+3.37=5.57____2.6____15.5
3-4-Q-K____2.52+(-2.33)+5.19=5.38____2.1____14.6

Defense______L3 %___L4 %
6-9-Q-K_______24.4___71.6
3-4-6-9_______26.6___73.3
3-4-Q-K_______23.9___73.1

6-9-Q-K is best for expected averages by 0.73pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-4 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
JQT says: It's an interesting hand, because if we just ignore POSITION and PEGGING, Toss (6 9) rules the day. If we then take PEGGING into account, then Toss (Q K) jumps out, and if the board were infinitely long, this might be the final word. But as many of you suspected, Toss (3 4) puts the two cards most likely to grow into our Crib, and also meets the DEFENSIVE nature of our POSITION, at least according to Halscrib. This is also the Discard Choice that you learn to make from such a hand if you use Max Kassler's Discard Tool, and old Cribbage Solitaire teaching tool. I went for the PEGGING hand, as did most today, but the program believes that as the Dealer, we are "close enough" to Hole 70 to make DEFENSE appropriate, and I think it's the correct call. Even with only a 20% chance of winning, there is still a reason to peg defensively!
MiketheExpert says: This is more interesting and a food for thought decision made by the cribbot, once you really get into the nuances of this position...Hal sees yourself as almost into position (one hole short at 69), and based on thr 11 point differential, prudent to play defense at the outset....I'd normally be inclined to agree if I was dealt something approaching an "average" deal with the first 6 cards that are dealt. But I believe playing defense now will put you further behind your goal based on the expected cuts. I chose optimal as well from the outset (as RAS did) once seeing the deal...And even more offense after the disappointing cut, which is why it is strange to see the complete strategy shift "AFTER" the cut from HAL. So, I think you need to make these very SLIGHT adjustments in your thinking before the discard and cuts are likely to happen. However, Defense is certainly a viable option if you are so inclined...I myself am often defensive-minded almost to a fault - so it is interesting how the SAME board position and score will sometimes lead you to a different strategy, also with rather small relative differences in the hand. I would say if I expected to score a "HAND" in the neighborhood of 5.5 pts, rather than the highest 4.3 pt keep noted above (3-4-6-9), then I would definitely lean toward playing defense at this point.