July 20, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0-0*  ?
33%
32%
11%
8%
6%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 239
scottcribThis was the first hand of an online game. Decided to toss 2-J. An Ace was cut. Even though the cut worked out for me, if I had to decide again, I probably would have tossed 3-J.
mrob2199
1433 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:09 AM
I know most players like to advance down the board as much as possible as the first deal pone,but in today’s hand I feel the 3J is the best percentage play-obviously more cuts help the 2223 than the 2225 but a picture cut could give it all back and more, and a 5 cut could be catatastrophic-the 2225 goes to 12 with a 2,6,or 8 cut,and a picture gives us 8 without worrying about a huge crib for the dealer-in the pegging we have a possible 31 for 4 if dealer has all pictures which would be a nice added bonus for this hold
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:13 AM
"X" cards, aces, fours, eights and the final 2 card make up 28 of the unkown 46. J5 is worth the gamble I reckon, for a reasonable chance at a dozen.

28 cards = 30 cards minus 2 cards =
28 cards = (5*6 cards) - (2*1 card) =
28 cards = (5*13%) - (2*2%) =
28 cards = 65% - 4% =
28 cards = 61% of the unknown 46.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:24 AM
A swing and a miss.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: You haven't been swinging much with all that rain in the Bay State. Rained out. Here you get the chance to take a home-run swing out of the weather. Go for the bleachers!!!
Gougie00 says: Long fly balls are just pretty outs. Hitting the ball at the guy they're trying to hide and right field is the best way to go
JQT says: And remember, Gougie00: The "Foul Ball Pole" is, in actuality, a "Fair Ball Pole" . . .
Gougie00 says: Restricted flight ball. I would have trouble hitting the fence from 2nd base.
JQT says: "That's What She Said!" https://youtu.be/dBUGfs9rwms
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:56 AM
Sorry, as inviting as 2-2-2-3 is to start the game with a high-value hand, the 5-J to opponent crib averages 8.136 (169). Here, we have seen no other X-pointers. With the Jack key connector among the X-pointers points and a five, dealer is likely to have a couple of unwanted X-pointers. The 7 cut seems to be of no direct benefit to 3-J discard nor is it of any help to n/d. Keeping six to discard eight doesn't work out so well. Tossing the 5-J, although that appears to be the offensive choice, combined values (pegs, potential hand score, minus the crib score) gives this choice the nod. And the 5-J wouldn't even be my second choice. Lead the 2S, drop the 5 second card down to fake a flush, and take any pegs offered along the way.
Ras2829 says: And 5-J wouldn't even be second choice? The 2C-5 would have been in second spot, retaining 2-2-3-J. Then would have been 5-J discard in third spot.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:11 AM
It was between 3-J and 2-5 to opponent with today's hand. Decided on holding this hand which adds up to "11". Plenty of cuts gives the hand 8 points (26) or 12 points (9). Rather not give a '5' to dealer.
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:19 AM
That set of cards I see on e crib quite enough usually later in the game. If it was 5-9 instead I would kept the triple run possibility. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:58 AM
Beginning of game. I should be on offensive. So throw 2-5.
JQT says: Toss (2 5), or what I sometimes call "Oil and Water" would be my close 'Runner-Up' Second Choice today.
MiketheExpert says: It is an interesting mix..as compared to (3 J), I only slightly prefer it to the toss of (2 5). But I would probably never end up tossing the (2 5), because I would end up tossing either the (3 J) or the (5 J) depending on the circumstances...so one or the other of these 2 throws would always be my first choice.
JQT says: And for me, both Toss (5 J) and Toss (2 2) would probably end up as second- and third-last choices, behind of course (what nobody has yet voted for) the dreadful Toss (2 3)! Therefore, Toss (5 J) and Toss (2 2) would be in a "State of Superposition" for my Penultimate Choice for Last Place. (And this is why Cribbage really needs a Quantum Computer!)
MiketheExpert says: I think both (2 2) and (2 3) are far inferior choices to (5 J) here.
zeke76
1394 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:48 AM
I don't want to put the 5 in dealer's crib and at least we start with 6 points this way and have some odds of improvement.
mfetchCT425
1397 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:04 AM
The 2-2-2-3 is tempting, not at the cost of suited 5-J to their crib. 3-J should provide a nice balking crib toss, especially with three deuces in our hand. As Rob mentions above, I like the chance for 31-4 at the end of the pegging sequence after leading our 2s.
MiketheExpert
1119 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:09 AM
This looks like an upgraded version of the hand that I presented yesterday at 0-0*, but in this case the answer is much tougher. I can't blame one for choosing EITHER of the choices in this case, and I wonder if it just not more a personal style preference of which holding you keep. For me being the first hand, I will choose the more dangerous (5 J) throw, because I feel I would be throwing away just too much more added hand potential by getting rid of the 3 instead....and the (3 J) is really not that great either, but much safer than the (5 J) and made safer by the fact I hold 3 2's in my hand. But even if I cut another face card, it helps my hand by at least 6 pts, and all things considered, I would rather have us both score high on the first deal, rather than miss an opportunity for 6 or 8 extra points. So, (5 J) it is. I've once said before that most of the time I like to be cautious -- but first deal as pone is one of the times where I will take these chances.
MiketheExpert says: Note: If I cut a 5 with this, I could be in trouble for the rest of the game though --- so depending on match situations, tournament score, etc....there are times where I will not take this chance on the opening hand and throe (3 J) instead.....
MiketheExpert says: Maybe also consider the safer alternative of (2 5) while still holding 6 pts as an even more moderate option in SOME situations?...But I don't see why you would choose this over (3 J), however I can see why you may choose (5 J) with the higher risk/higher reward.
MiketheExpert says: The 7 is a bad cut today for my throw of (5 J), but I can be thankful at least I didn't cut a 5!
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:14 AM
Every cut but a 9 helps somehow....
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:08 AM
Hate gic's and also hate throwing 5's away but there are a lot of good cuts. Unfortunately, didn't get one but it's early and maybe opp won't get too far ahead.
jmath714
1298 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:22 AM
Looks like I’m against the sharps of this room here - my opinion is you only get a handful of big pulls in games, and there is so much potential with 2223 to pass on this opportunity.

Part would depend on my opponent - against a weaker player, I’d be tempted to throw defensively and extend the game.

But with 27 cuts at 12+, I better have a hell of a reason to throw defensively.
MiketheExpert says: Good point jmath, factoring in your opponent as well for sure could influence which cards you choose to throw on the first deal here!
jmath714 says: 28 cuts! I forgot about the 2.
JQT says: One issue here is that 18 of those 28 cuts, or about 64% of them, will also then go on to help the Dealer's Crib!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:54 AM
Sorry I am tardy today: In sleep's defeat, there is no victory.

The easiest way to decipher such arrangements as this are often to simply look at the number of points we retain as opposed to what we give away just for initial guidance.

For example, after Keep (2 2 2 3) and Toss (5 J), we hold Six and give away Two, and thus prior to the Cut, it's a 'static' exchange for Four Points.

If we Keep (2 2 3 5) and Toss (2 J), we have a NET 'static' Two Points. After Keep (2 3 5 J) and Toss (2 2), it's a 'static' NET Two Points as well.

Only Keep (2 2 2 5) and Toss (3 J) has a 'static' NET gain of Six Points! Yes, it's a complete butchering of the Hand, but THEY ARE ONLY CARDS. And smile: We have a four-card Magic Eleven!

After the 7 Card Cut, we chuckle and the Dealer wonders why, and it's because unless we Toss (3 5), almost no hand and no discard today is either helped, or as far as we know harmed, by a 7 Card Cut!

Lead the Deuce of Spades.
fentesk says: Defeating sleep and butchering cards, it's a rough day here in CHOD-land. But as you say, we have an 11, so life is good.
MiketheExpert says: Any bets on the computer's choices today? I think Coeurdelion might definitely be capable of tossing (5 J) to hold this on the first hand, because it seems to lean toward aggressive play in many situations, as well as some where it may be unadvised? :) Pretty sure HALCLX is going to toss the (3 J), though....
MiketheExpert says: Prediction was a success :) Btw, just beat Hal_1800 in a game where cut help was 40 to 19 in his favour...how often does that happen? (not being outcut which is routine when playing Hal, but winning a game like that, lol.)
JQT says: From what I understand, while the 'guts' of the HAL-BOTs that were released to run on eCribbage use the Halscrib algorithm, these do NOT use the Random Number Generators (RNGs) that come with the Halscrib software! The RNGs within the Halscrib programs, especially the Mersenne Twists that shipped with both REX and Crib Prof, is exemplary. Hal did make an effort to help the programmer fix (or at least improve) these, but while they are perhaps better than they once were, they are NOT nearly as good as the RNGs that come with the software. Those hands with the crazy Cuts that you mention is one of the main reasons why I stopped playing there shortly after joining in 2008. And I have gone back every few years to both see and hear the same issue still exists. And many players can 'game' this behavior to rack up artificial ratings! Please: do NOT blame Halscrib or Hal for the behavior of the Card Dealing Algorithm that he has no control over! I'll be glad to update any of this if I hear differently from either Hal or Damien or anyone else with credibility.
MiketheExpert says: Yes indeed..no blame at all given, just an observation as apparently you have also seen at this particular site of e-cribbage. And I joined just a few short months ago, so don't have much prior knowledge of what it was like back then or much of a comparison point. Probably no reflection at all to the actual software, which I have heard is exceptional but have never tried it myself from the master creator Hal himself :)
JQT says: Yes, your observations, MiketheExpert, were clearly just that; I am mostly just sad if this still exists and is so noticeable. There is also perhaps some observable effect occurring when attempting to 'de-tune' a program to play below its own strength, and we see this in Chess, where it must occasionally play an inferior move to limit its rating, and if not done very carefully, this can allow a very weak player to beat an ostensibly strong Chess program. Many of the recent 'bots' created to mimic the players in the Queen's Gambit (as well as the various streamers who became more popular because of this movie) have this anomaly, and they need the programmers to better 'hone' the Evaluation Function so that certain Second Best moves don't cause the programmed 'bot' players' ratings to suddenly plummet. Such occasional suspicious behavior could also be exacerbated in the programmed play in Cribbage as well.
scottcrib
1634 votes

Joined: August 2019
Tuesday 1:45 PM
I'm glad y'all are enjoying today's submission.
JQT says: I'm usually more of a fan of Cribbage Endgame Puzzles, but as it's now after 6p ET, and the two top choices are essentially "tied" at 32% of the votes each, and with Six out of the Seven unique (as we can ignore suits) discard choices having been voted upon, as only Toss (2 3) does not appear, it doesn't get any better than this!
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:15 PM
I think it's between 2-2-2-5 (3-J), 2S-2-3-J (2-5) and 2-2-2-3 (5-J):

2-2-2-5: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = +1¼pts

2S-2-5-J: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = -¼pt

2-2-2-3: 6pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = -2pts

Potential:

2-2-2-5: Improves with 2, 4444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 2, 6666, 8888 = 9 cuts.

2S-2-3-J: Improves with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444 +15xXs = 27 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-2-3: Improves with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 12/15pts with AAAA, 2, 4444, 8888 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be trying to reach 18pts or more and playing Offense to do so.

Pegging:

Each hand should peg well but 2-2-2-5 is a 4-card magic eleven so I think may peg slightly best.

Summary:

2-2-2-5 is best for starting value by 1½pts but 2-2-2-3 has most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 12/15pts compared to 9 cuts for 12pts with 2-2-2-5 and 27 cuts for 10-14pts for 2S-2-3-J plus it has an extra 0.22pt for a spade cut. I think it may well be close but as we're trying to reach 18 pts and 2-2-2-3 has 28 cuts for 12/15pt I think I'll risk the 5-J.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:18 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-2-2-5____8.30+1.50+(-4.04)=5.76____26.3____25.1
2S-2-3-J___9.70+1.48+(-5.96)=5.22____31.0____26.0
2-2-2-3___10.65+2.39+(-8.03)=5.01____34.0____23.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-2-2-5_______37.3____49.4
2S-2-3-J______42.2____54.8
2-2-2-3_______47.9____52.8

2-2-2-5 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt. and although 2-2-2-3 is slightly best for Win %s 2-2-2-5 is also very much lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the 3-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
2____________________1.55
5____________________1.49