July 20, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0-0*  ?
33%
32%
11%
8%
6%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 239
scottcribThis was the first hand of an online game. Decided to toss 2-J. An Ace was cut. Even though the cut worked out for me, if I had to decide again, I probably would have tossed 3-J.
mrob2199
715 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:09 AM
I know most players like to advance down the board as much as possible as the first deal pone,but in today’s hand I feel the 3J is the best percentage play-obviously more cuts help the 2223 than the 2225 but a picture cut could give it all back and more, and a 5 cut could be catatastrophic-the 2225 goes to 12 with a 2,6,or 8 cut,and a picture gives us 8 without worrying about a huge crib for the dealer-in the pegging we have a possible 31 for 4 if dealer has all pictures which would be a nice added bonus for this hold
james500
2923 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:13 AM
"X" cards, aces, fours, eights and the final 2 card make up 28 of the unkown 46. J5 is worth the gamble I reckon, for a reasonable chance at a dozen.

28 cards = 30 cards minus 2 cards =
28 cards = (5*6 cards) - (2*1 card) =
28 cards = (5*13%) - (2*2%) =
28 cards = 65% - 4% =
28 cards = 61% of the unknown 46.
Gougie00
4709 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 3:24 AM
A swing and a miss.
Ras2829
4165 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 3:56 AM
Sorry, as inviting as 2-2-2-3 is to start the game with a high-value hand, the 5-J to opponent crib averages 8.136 (169). Here, we have seen no other X-pointers. With the Jack key connector among the X-pointers points and a five, dealer is likely to have a couple of unwanted X-pointers. The 7 cut seems to be of no direct benefit to 3-J discard nor is it of any help to n/d. Keeping six to discard eight doesn't work out so well. Tossing the 5-J, although that appears to be the offensive choice, combined values (pegs, potential hand score, minus the crib score) gives this choice the nod. And the 5-J wouldn't even be my second choice. Lead the 2S, drop the 5 second card down to fake a flush, and take any pegs offered along the way.
Rosemarie44
1931 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:11 AM
It was between 3-J and 2-5 to opponent with today's hand. Decided on holding this hand which adds up to "11". Plenty of cuts gives the hand 8 points (26) or 12 points (9). Rather not give a '5' to dealer.
dec
5319 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:19 AM
That set of cards I see on e crib quite enough usually later in the game. If it was 5-9 instead I would kept the triple run possibility. dec
Andy (muesli64)
1983 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:58 AM
Beginning of game. I should be on offensive. So throw 2-5.
zeke76
974 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 5:48 AM
I don't want to put the 5 in dealer's crib and at least we start with 6 points this way and have some odds of improvement.
mfetchCT425
898 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:04 AM
The 2-2-2-3 is tempting, not at the cost of suited 5-J to their crib. 3-J should provide a nice balking crib toss, especially with three deuces in our hand. As Rob mentions above, I like the chance for 31-4 at the end of the pegging sequence after leading our 2s.
MiketheExpert
115 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 7:09 AM
This looks like an upgraded version of the hand that I presented yesterday at 0-0*, but in this case the answer is much tougher. I can't blame one for choosing EITHER of the choices in this case, and I wonder if it just not more a personal style preference of which holding you keep. For me being the first hand, I will choose the more dangerous (5 J) throw, because I feel I would be throwing away just too much more added hand potential by getting rid of the 3 instead....and the (3 J) is really not that great either, but much safer than the (5 J) and made safer by the fact I hold 3 2's in my hand. But even if I cut another face card, it helps my hand by at least 6 pts, and all things considered, I would rather have us both score high on the first deal, rather than miss an opportunity for 6 or 8 extra points. So, (5 J) it is. I've once said before that most of the time I like to be cautious -- but first deal as pone is one of the times where I will take these chances.
SallyAnn3
405 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 8:14 AM
Every cut but a 9 helps somehow....
Fender Bass
20 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Tuesday 9:08 AM
Hate gic's and also hate throwing 5's away but there are a lot of good cuts. Unfortunately, didn't get one but it's early and maybe opp won't get too far ahead.
jmath714
945 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Tuesday 9:22 AM
Looks like I’m against the sharps of this room here - my opinion is you only get a handful of big pulls in games, and there is so much potential with 2223 to pass on this opportunity.

Part would depend on my opponent - against a weaker player, I’d be tempted to throw defensively and extend the game.

But with 27 cuts at 12+, I better have a hell of a reason to throw defensively.
JQT
3149 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 9:54 AM
Sorry I am tardy today: In sleep's defeat, there is no victory.

The easiest way to decipher such arrangements as this are often to simply look at the number of points we retain as opposed to what we give away just for initial guidance.

For example, after Keep (2 2 2 3) and Toss (5 J), we hold Six and give away Two, and thus prior to the Cut, it's a 'static' exchange for Four Points.

If we Keep (2 2 3 5) and Toss (2 J), we have a NET 'static' Two Points. After Keep (2 3 5 J) and Toss (2 2), it's a 'static' NET Two Points as well.

Only Keep (2 2 2 5) and Toss (3 J) has a 'static' NET gain of Six Points! Yes, it's a complete butchering of the Hand, but THEY ARE ONLY CARDS. And smile: We have a four-card Magic Eleven!

After the 7 Card Cut, we chuckle and the Dealer wonders why, and it's because unless we Toss (3 5), almost no hand and no discard today is either helped, or as far as we know harmed, by a 7 Card Cut!

Lead the Deuce of Spades.
scottcrib
629 votes

Joined: August 2019

Tuesday 1:45 PM
I'm glad y'all are enjoying today's submission.
Coeurdelion
4620 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 5:15 PM
I think it's between 2-2-2-5 (3-J), 2S-2-3-J (2-5) and 2-2-2-3 (5-J):

2-2-2-5: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = +1¼pts

2S-2-5-J: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = -¼pt

2-2-2-3: 6pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = -2pts

Potential:

2-2-2-5: Improves with 2, 4444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 2, 6666, 8888 = 9 cuts.

2S-2-3-J: Improves with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444 +15xXs = 27 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-2-3: Improves with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 12/15pts with AAAA, 2, 4444, 8888 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be trying to reach 18pts or more and playing Offense to do so.

Pegging:

Each hand should peg well but 2-2-2-5 is a 4-card magic eleven so I think may peg slightly best.

Summary:

2-2-2-5 is best for starting value by 1½pts but 2-2-2-3 has most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 12/15pts compared to 9 cuts for 12pts with 2-2-2-5 and 27 cuts for 10-14pts for 2S-2-3-J plus it has an extra 0.22pt for a spade cut. I think it may well be close but as we're trying to reach 18 pts and 2-2-2-3 has 28 cuts for 12/15pt I think I'll risk the 5-J.
HalscribCLX
4357 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 5:18 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-2-2-5____8.30+1.50+(-4.04)=5.76____26.3____25.1
2S-2-3-J___9.70+1.48+(-5.96)=5.22____31.0____26.0
2-2-2-3___10.65+2.39+(-8.03)=5.01____34.0____23.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-2-2-5_______37.3____49.4
2S-2-3-J______42.2____54.8
2-2-2-3_______47.9____52.8

2-2-2-5 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt. and although 2-2-2-3 is slightly best for Win %s 2-2-2-5 is also very much lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the 3-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
2____________________1.55
5____________________1.49