September 14, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
118-118*  ?
46%
20%
17%
7%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 201
Goatman
1764 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Tuesday 3:07 AM
Looks like games over with that cut. Was going to led the 7 before cut…holding my breath counting enny menny minny moe now… going to lead the 7.
james500
2988 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:08 AM
Had planned to lead the 7, allowing me to counter any scoring reply with my Ace or 6 card. With the Jack cut I can't allow Dealer to score at all, so I'll lead the Ace which has the fewest scoring responses available.
mrob2199
770 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:34 AM
It’s a little risky to keep a zero hand needing 3 but I’ll take the chance that the cut will improve the hand or I can peg 3-I feel this mishmash of cards has the best chance to keep the dealer from pegging 3-the 7 would have been the optimum lead before the J cut so now I’m forced to lead the ace
JQT
3215 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:20 AM
Before we know the Cut Card, and in spite of the lack of points, I think we should Toss (J K), and begin the fight of this Endgame Battle right from the get-go.

After all, if we peg none-at-all, the Dealer will likely then peg out and WIN anyway, before we even get a chance to tally our hand.

And we're perhaps also a bit less likely to count our hand if we retain the FLUSH, with those two Face Cards. Thus, I concur with mrob2199 (above).

I planned to lead the 7 Card, and I'm not going to let that awful Jack Cut change this! I think it's still our best shot to WIN, although our chances must be dismal, and hovering around 3%.
Ras2829
4225 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:41 AM
mrob2199 says what needs to be said. After knowing dealer picked up two points for turning the Jack, got to lead the A, No Jack cut here, lead the 7!
Gougie00
4775 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:01 AM
Gougie00
4775 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:02 AM
It just got more difficult with the Jack cut. I was going to lead the seven I'm not sure now what I should do.
zeke76
1026 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 5:42 AM
Flush gets us out. The A and K are pegging “outs”. So held for defensive pegging.

The J cut really hurts as now we need to peg out.
dec
5385 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 5:52 AM
Ace lead . We might get lucky and be able to trap a five or an eight. dec
mfetchCT425
953 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:57 AM
Was all set to lead the 7. Will lead the ace now after the J cut.
MiketheExpert
180 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 6:39 AM
I agree with keeping the "0" pt initial pegging hand, as I feel strongly we will need to peg out before we get to count our hand, so get rid of the cards with the least pegging value. Planning to lead the 7 before the J was cut...now it is huge trouble, and will have to lead the A and somehow peg 3 before he gets his 1....!
jmudge
254 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Tuesday 8:09 AM
Went for the flush and immediately regretted it. Should have given it a little more thought.
Fender Bass
84 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Tuesday 8:46 AM
Cut the jack...you're done
wasa
2099 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 10:29 AM
Sorry - I'm not a good enough pegger to even consider holding a zero point hand. I have to keep the points, hence the flush.
Coeurdelion
4683 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:25 PM
We need to stop Dealer pegging 3pts or peg 3pts first. If we can hold back Dealer to 1/2pts then it would be nice to hold at least 3pts to guarantee we go out.

A-3-6-7 is probably the best pegging hand and it has AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 21 cuts 4pts or more. 333, 4444, 9999 = 11 cuts for 2pts. However 14 tenth cards will score nothing.

So if we do keep a flush, which one? A-6-7-K I think will be preferable to A-6-7-J and it has a good spread of cards so may well stop Dealer pegging more than 2pts. However the Ace may be potentially awkward and give away points. A better defensive hold I think will be 6-7-J-K. So I'll throw A-3.
HalscribCLX
4412 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:51 PM
At 118-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s, Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense____Our Peg Out %___Dlr Peg Out %_____Hold Out %
A-3-6-7_______15.3_____________48.1_____________82.9
A-7-J-K_______14.0_____________60.0____________100.0
A-3-6-J_______10.4_____________69.1_____________79.7
A-3-6-K_______10.4_____________69.5_____________77.7
A-6-7-K_______10.3_____________61.1____________100.0
A-6-7-J_______10.3_____________61.1____________100.0
A-6-J-K_______10.1_____________60.7____________100.0
A-3-7-J________9.9_____________68.1_____________75.8
A-3-7-K________9.9_____________68.1_____________74.8
A-3-J-K________7.3_____________68.2_____________71.4
6-7-J-K________6.1_____________59.5____________100.0
3-6-J-K________5.6_____________65.1_____________74.9
3-7-J-K________5.5_____________63.8_____________74.4
3-6-7-J________2.7_____________64.8_____________76.0
3-6-7-K________2.7_____________64.8_____________74.5

A-3-6-7 is best for Our Chances of Pegging Out by 1.3% over A-7-J-K and is very much lowest for Dealer's Chances of Pegging Out. However it is not guaranteed to hold out. The best keep for chances of Our Pegging Out, third lowest for Dealer Pegging Out and guaranteed to Hold Enough is A-7-J-K so I'll select 3-6 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.___Win %____Loss %
J________________0.34__________1.8_______42.7
K________________0.31__________1.6_______45.7
7________________0.13__________0.8_______42.5
A________________0.03__________0.2_______40.0

The J lead is best for Our Pegging Pts and slightly best for Win %s but the A lead is lowest for Loss %s so I'll lead the A.
dec
5385 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:54 PM
the 15.3 wins for me dec