September 14, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
118-118*  ?
46%
20%
17%
7%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 201
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:07 AM
Looks like games over with that cut. Was going to led the 7 before cut…holding my breath counting enny menny minny moe now… going to lead the 7.
james500
3918 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:08 AM
Had planned to lead the 7, allowing me to counter any scoring reply with my Ace or 6 card. With the Jack cut I can't allow Dealer to score at all, so I'll lead the Ace which has the fewest scoring responses available.
mrob2199
1430 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:34 AM
It’s a little risky to keep a zero hand needing 3 but I’ll take the chance that the cut will improve the hand or I can peg 3-I feel this mishmash of cards has the best chance to keep the dealer from pegging 3-the 7 would have been the optimum lead before the J cut so now I’m forced to lead the ace
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:20 AM
Before we know the Cut Card, and in spite of the lack of points, I think we should Toss (J K), and begin the fight of this Endgame Battle right from the get-go.

After all, if we peg none-at-all, the Dealer will likely then peg out and WIN anyway, before we even get a chance to tally our hand.

And we're perhaps also a bit less likely to count our hand if we retain the FLUSH, with those two Face Cards. Thus, I concur with mrob2199 (above).

I planned to lead the 7 Card, and I'm not going to let that awful Jack Cut change this! I think it's still our best shot to WIN, although our chances must be dismal, and hovering around 3%.
JQT says: While the 7 Card Lead is far more likely to end in an immediate loss, I do believe it is still the best 'path' toward a possible VICTORY. Such a WIN for us probably only will come if we can play our Trey and our Ace in quick succession, for either a RUN or a PAIR with a "go" attached, as the Count approaches Thirty-One.
Eolus619 says: JQT..just thinking about the other side of this from dealer perspective. In your view, what would be the “ideal “ pegging cards to hold as dealer?
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: As often in the past as you have mentioned how the cut of Jack can impact a game, did you arrange for this Jack on the deck?
JQT says: Eolus619, Trying to determine the "Ideal Dealer Pegging Cards" is a bit subjective, since it's highly dependent upon what Pone holds, but as we're tied at Hole 118, I think (A A A 9) or (2 2 2 5) might do nicely under a variety of circumstances. The Dealer does not necessarily need 'The Most' pegs here; the Dealer needs to 'nab' Three Holes and do so *before* Pone does the same. That often makes for quite an interesting and engaging battle. Also, Pone has TWO ways to WIN: (1) Peg Out and/or (2) First Hand Show; the Dealer has just ONE way to WIN ... PEGGING! The key is to do your best to score FIRST during the pegging as the Dealer, but not to allow Pone to easily parry and get either PAIRS Royal or a Run in the process. Therefore, playing a 5 Card after any "X" Card Lead, or playing a 9 Card after any 6 Card Lead, is probably the safest way to begin. Next Best Bet is perhaps to get a "go" and then self-PAIR either Deuces or Aces. And the Third Best option is probably to PAIR Pone's Ace or Deuce, with a "go" to WIN.
JQT says: RAS, I sometimes do 'post and delete and repeat' until the 'random' Cut is what I wish to see, but when I posted this puzzle and saw a Jack pop up, I thought, "Why Not?!" and so I let it stand.
Eolus619 says: thx John ..very educational
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:41 AM
mrob2199 says what needs to be said. After knowing dealer picked up two points for turning the Jack, got to lead the A, No Jack cut here, lead the 7!
JQT says: RAS, I always get concerned when you're either still up, or already up, at this 'ripe' hour; and yet I often 'skip' entire days, at least a few times each week, without any sleep whatsoever myself. Maybe I worry instinctively, because you live in the same time zone as my son, who knows?! Hopefully, you're busy preparing that old flyfishing gear. Mine has acquired fourteen years of 'dust' on it since it was used last: maybe I'll 'wet a line' in 2022!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Appreciate your concern and interest. Don't go to bed until 2:00 AM Pacific regularly. This morn decided to add a couple more hours. Sleep immediately very soundly once hitting the sack. So four hours of rest for me is plenty - do take a late afternoon nap each day after the garden chores completed. Ah, yes am looking towards that annual fishing excursion in the mountains of central Oregon 9-25-10/2. Been doing that for 55 years same spot. First was just wife and two small children. Now has become a mini family reunion with with son, spouse, three grand children, spouses, and 7 great grandchildren. for some of that week.
zeke76 says: Sounds lovely
Eolus619 says: You can add one more to your mini reunion. A fisherman’s best friend is a good excuse & thus always a constant companion!
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:01 AM
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:02 AM
It just got more difficult with the Jack cut. I was going to lead the seven I'm not sure now what I should do.
zeke76
1391 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:42 AM
Flush gets us out. The A and K are pegging “outs”. So held for defensive pegging.

The J cut really hurts as now we need to peg out.
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:52 AM
Ace lead . We might get lucky and be able to trap a five or an eight. dec
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:57 AM
Was all set to lead the 7. Will lead the ace now after the J cut.
MiketheExpert
1117 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:39 AM
I agree with keeping the "0" pt initial pegging hand, as I feel strongly we will need to peg out before we get to count our hand, so get rid of the cards with the least pegging value. Planning to lead the 7 before the J was cut...now it is huge trouble, and will have to lead the A and somehow peg 3 before he gets his 1....!
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:09 AM
Went for the flush and immediately regretted it. Should have given it a little more thought.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:46 AM
Cut the jack...you're done
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:29 AM
Sorry - I'm not a good enough pegger to even consider holding a zero point hand. I have to keep the points, hence the flush.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:25 PM
We need to stop Dealer pegging 3pts or peg 3pts first. If we can hold back Dealer to 1/2pts then it would be nice to hold at least 3pts to guarantee we go out.

A-3-6-7 is probably the best pegging hand and it has AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 21 cuts 4pts or more. 333, 4444, 9999 = 11 cuts for 2pts. However 14 tenth cards will score nothing.

So if we do keep a flush, which one? A-6-7-K I think will be preferable to A-6-7-J and it has a good spread of cards so may well stop Dealer pegging more than 2pts. However the Ace may be potentially awkward and give away points. A better defensive hold I think will be 6-7-J-K. So I'll throw A-3.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:51 PM
At 118-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s, Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense____Our Peg Out %___Dlr Peg Out %_____Hold Out %
A-3-6-7_______15.3_____________48.1_____________82.9
A-7-J-K_______14.0_____________60.0____________100.0
A-3-6-J_______10.4_____________69.1_____________79.7
A-3-6-K_______10.4_____________69.5_____________77.7
A-6-7-K_______10.3_____________61.1____________100.0
A-6-7-J_______10.3_____________61.1____________100.0
A-6-J-K_______10.1_____________60.7____________100.0
A-3-7-J________9.9_____________68.1_____________75.8
A-3-7-K________9.9_____________68.1_____________74.8
A-3-J-K________7.3_____________68.2_____________71.4
6-7-J-K________6.1_____________59.5____________100.0
3-6-J-K________5.6_____________65.1_____________74.9
3-7-J-K________5.5_____________63.8_____________74.4
3-6-7-J________2.7_____________64.8_____________76.0
3-6-7-K________2.7_____________64.8_____________74.5

A-3-6-7 is best for Our Chances of Pegging Out by 1.3% over A-7-J-K and is very much lowest for Dealer's Chances of Pegging Out. However it is not guaranteed to hold out. The best keep for chances of Our Pegging Out, third lowest for Dealer Pegging Out and guaranteed to Hold Enough is A-7-J-K so I'll select 3-6 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.___Win %____Loss %
J________________0.34__________1.8_______42.7
K________________0.31__________1.6_______45.7
7________________0.13__________0.8_______42.5
A________________0.03__________0.2_______40.0

The J lead is best for Our Pegging Pts and slightly best for Win %s but the A lead is lowest for Loss %s so I'll lead the A.
MiketheExpert says: Very interesting result. Not quite sure how to interpret it into an overall win% (before the cut). (A-3-6-7) - (100-48.1) = 51.9% chance of dealer not pegging out x 82.9% chance of counting out is 43%. Not sure whether our peg out% is included in the 83% or counted separately though. Using the same type of logic for (A-7-J-K), it would seem like dealer will not peg out 40% of the time, and we should peg/count out 100% if this does not occur, which should still be 40%, assuming our peg out% is part of that 40%, or slightly LESS chances to win than holding (A-3-6-7).
MiketheExpert says: If all the times we will peg out is NOT included (i.e. 15.3%) in the hole out%, then that should make the win% even slightly HIGHER, which still seems to favour (A-3-6-7)..My understanding of the numbers again might be off base and how I should interpret them.
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:54 PM
the 15.3 wins for me dec