September 22, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
29*-33  ?
40%
26%
23%
7%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 226
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:29 AM
9-T will suffer from Pone bias against discarding Jacks or fives, but even so, I'll keep all four points in hand with the consecutive cards to my crib.
7 reply to a led X from the 7-4 combo, but hopefully they'll pair it.
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:23 AM
Going for the 3,4,8 cuts. Defense on the pegging. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:50 AM
We are Dealer with a slight deficit, however, we are about Ten Holes ahead of pace to reach well beyond the Second Street Par Hole 44 by the next time we are the Dealer.

The only potential problem is that Pone is just Eleven Holes away from reaching that same target by completion of This Deal, which is One Point above average.

We want to peg DEFENSIVELY such that Pone falls short of that goal. Trying to hold onto the 7-7-9, hoping for a RUN, might not only get us 'jammed up' during the pegging, but it's a wild proposition anyway.

This leaves either Toss (7 7) or Toss (9 T), and while I much prefer the latter in a typical position, I believe we may peg more safely after the former. Let's Toss (7 7) and peg very carefully.
JQT says: Generally, we prefer to play DEFENSE when we are Pone, not when we are Dealer. That is because as Pone, we have TWO ways to control our Opponent: (1) During the Discard into the Crib, and (2) During the Pegging. As the Dealer, since we "own" the Crib, we cannot use it to s-l-o-w down the Opponent; but we ALWAYS have some control during the Pegging! And this is an example of a Relative Position that calls for us to 'throw on the brakes' a bit, hence the uncharacteristic discard.
Eolus619 says: A comment about your back to the future WAR post yesterday. Spill the Wine..got to appreciate a song that has lyrics saying….” The fact that me, an overfed long haired leaping gnome. Should be the star behind a Hollywood movie, hmm.But there I was.” I think Low Rider was very likely WAR’s most recognizable song. Up in Smoke ..The movie with the misplaced name as to the featured car…1964 Chevy Impala SS…technically not even in the low rider category since it could not be modified with a hydraulic lift. A true low rider would have been something like a 1972 Chevy Monte Carlo. Also, in this movie there may be the largest and coolest collection of classic vintage 1970s California vehicles ever on film …somewhere around 20-25 minutes in they are driving around and passing vehicles like a VW transport ..which I believe had 20+ windows! Many other models show up the background …a Jaguar E Coupe, 1971 Pontiac Grand Prix and a 1970 Dodge Charger…etc. BTW ..no mistaking a WAR played song with that consistent driving bass beat.
JQT says: I believe the definition of "Lowrider" has changed or morphed slightly, as around 1970-1975, the quintessential Lowrider was probably the 1964 Chevy Impala, defined more by its grille and large steering wheel than the ease of which it can be modified, although the X-frame did allow it. Kids during those days used to refer to such a car as "Basic Transportation" and the emphasis was on being laid back, relaxed. At first, it was all about the ride, being seen, and later followed all the money and exotic, expensive modifications. By definition, a Lowrider is always a car that has been lowered, as well as being a vehicle that serves no practical purpose. Originally, the car just had to be low, or lowered; the hydraulics and the "lift" came later. Toward the end of the 1970s, the epicenter of the Lowrider has also shifted from Los Angeles, San Diego, and Tijuana, finally moving over to Española, New Mexico, and the emphasis has switched to exotic modifications and elaborate shock absorber kits. https://roadtrippers.com/magazine/espanola-lowrider-capital/
scottcrib
1633 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:02 AM
At this position, I'll throw the pair. Of course, the only cut that doesn't help is what comes up.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:11 AM
Nice puzzle. I tossed 77 because nothing else looked obvious.
mfetchCT425
1396 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:49 AM
Close for me between the 7-7 and 9-10. 7-7 is the stronger throw to our crib between these two (9-10 is also dead on one side as pone is unlikely to toss us a J). This should be a pretty nice defensive pegging hand with good spacing of cards.
Gougie00 says: The opponent is less likely to toss you 8-9 or 8-6. But just in case he does we'll have a surprise for him.
Eolus619
1339 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:24 AM
Today…toss the 7-7 which has #3 highest average for discarding to own crib. That leaves a keep that gets cut help from 12/13 ranks….and …yikes
Eolus619 says: should have said ....leaves a keep + crib that gets cut help from 12/13 ranks
JQT says: Most charts would place Toss (7 7) to Our Own Crib as being the Third Best PAIR, and about Number Thirteen out of Ninety-One possible discards, and listing (Schell) just those first thirteen produces: (5 5), (2 3), (5 J), (5 T), (5 K), (5 6), (5 Q), (7 8), (4 5), (5 7), (3 5), (3 3), (7 7), etc.
Eolus619 says: yes…meant ….#3 highest pair…geeez..thx for the correction
mrob2199
1432 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:57 AM
I think this hand has the best potential for gain with the cut as well as giving us a magic 11 for defensive pegging purposes
wasa
3015 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:49 AM
Keeping the points, tossing touching cards.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:51 AM
Points in crib. Lots of helping cuts for hand including possible 3 point run. Prolly the best you can do.
MiketheExpert
1119 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:01 PM
Am in agreement with the throw of (7 7) today...nice crib toss as well as defensive pegging opportunities!
lonmower
405 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:58 PM
Even though at this juncture, none of the majority have commented so I will give it a go. Against a quality Pone, tossing the 77 seems futile as it seems that would be relying on the cut to gain points further than the 2 for the pair as it is unlikely that pone is going to toss anything to help your gain. IMHO the minority missed it this time
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:19 PM
I think it's between A-4-7-7 (9-10), A-4-9-10 (7-7) and 7-7-9-10 (A-4):

A-4-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 8¾pts

A-4-9-10: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

7-7-9-10: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-4-7-7: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 77, 8888 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 77, 8888 = 16 cuts.

A-4-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 8888, 101010, JJJJ = 21 cuts.

7-7-9-10: Improves with AAA, 5555, 6666, 77, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 5/6/14pts with 77, 8888, JJJJ = 10 cuts.

Position:

We only need 15pts to reach 2nd street positional hole but we'll be Pone for next deal. Opponent only needs 11pts but I'll play Defense to try to slow them down.

Pegging:

I think A-4-7-7 will peg best and A-4-9-10 next best.

Summary:

A-4-7-7 is best for starting value by 1pt over A-4-9-10 while A-4-9-10 has the most cuts for improvement. It also has 21 cuts for 5-8pts. So I'll throw the 7-7.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:21 PM
At 29*-33 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-4-9-10___4.78+(-1.85)+5.84=8.77____40.6____41.6
A-4-7-7____6.35+(-2.02)+4.31=8.64____40.6____41.9
7-7-9-10___4.22+(-2.13)+5.45=7.54____36.9____39.7

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-9-10______45.4____39.0
A-4-7-7_______45.2____38.7
7-7-9-10______44.5____41.0

A-4-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.13pt and although A-4-7-7 is very slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s it is very early in the game so I'll decide based on the expected averages and select 7-7 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:17 PM
I knew it would be close.