Thursday 3:01 AM

It's a tie game just as we have both nearly reached the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 (although some Positional Players also use Hole 95 as a guide). Being Pone however, we are in real peril here, and forced to defend.

But unlike yesterday when we were Dealer, as Pone, we can now defend both with our Discard Choice and via our Pegging.

Keep (5 6 6 8) and Toss (A 8) however is probably as "safe" as we've got, and yet it 'clamps' our Hand down to Two Points! Ouch! But it does get helped by ANY Cut Card, which is noteworthy.

And then we have Keep (A 6 6 8) and Toss (5 8), while retaining Six Points. We get to hold an Extra Four Points, and we only 'give up' slightly more than One Point to the Crib Value with Toss (5 8). If only we were Ten Holes further down the board!

Too many things would have to work out just perfectly in order for the Toss (5 8) discard idea to work in our favor today, and so I'll Toss (A 8) instead.

After the Jack Cut, we're no longer tied (a little Nibs Humour). And now, we have a whopping Four Points instead of just Two Points. Yippee! to worry about the 5 Card we sent packing. Let's lead a 6 Card from our PAIR.

This morning, let's mellow out to the British singer, Joscelyn Eve Stoker, known better as the adorable Joss Stone, who is 'all growed up' and in her thirties now!

Is there a Country on Earth in which Joss has NOT performed? That list used to include only North Korea and Iran, but I believe she has finally scratched North Korea off the list! And yet sadly, upon her arrival in Iran, she was deported, but she hasn't given up.

First, we'll look at a few more recent works, and then let's go way back to when she was just a teenager, and she burst onto music scene, but has still never quite reached 'Diva Status' (maybe it was never her goal?!).

Kes ft. Joss Stone (2021) - Trinidad & Tobago https://youtu.be/D9ak4NfE108

Joss Stone - Midnight Train To Georgia (2016) https://youtu.be/ipKeSfWgdRE

Buddy Guy & Joss Stone - Every Night About This Time (2007) https://youtu.be/zdUF4s0f8rs

Joss Stone, Dirty Man, Age 17, Live in New York (2004), (Remastered in 2017) https://youtu.be/Uyt0CJbsqRM

Joss sang five songs on her Austin City Limits 2004 performance, aired again in 2007, but I can only find one song (in a grainy video image) from this, which is sad because I believe it's her very best performance that I have ever seen!

I don't use a VPN, so perhaps this could be seen from various parts of the world (luckily, I have the entire original show saved in what was called "high definition" in 2007!).

Joss Stone - Victim of a Foolish Heart (Austin City Limits 2004 show) https://youtu.be/BzNrpvMAG5A

   

Thursday 3:17 AM

Although the cut immediately gives Dealer two points, A-8-J-?-? as the crib doesn't seem too worrying.
Not sure what to lead. I see John's chosen the 6, so I'll copy him.

   

Thursday 5:03 AM

Trying to stifle the dealer. I don't have Ace King so ace 8 has to do. Lead the six?

   

Thursday 5:14 AM

Tough choice for me, but looking at the position I choose defense. I know some will toss A-5 hoping for the 7 cut in desperation, but stranger things have happened. I can't say I fault them for trying. I will toss A-8 like a cornhole bag hoping for a 4 or 7 cut. At least I know every cut helps me in some way. Definitely the 6 lead for me.

   

Thursday 5:15 AM

I've been re-reading Colvert lately and according to him, it's the dealer's position at this point that matters more than mine, so that adds to my decision to go defense.

   

Thursday 5:20 AM

Yep it matters more what dealer gets here. So go wide numerically and graphically . Lead the six of clubs weak flush fake and don't want the eight lead for a couple of pegs score possibly there. defense. dec

   

Thursday 5:43 AM

If needing all out offense I'd drop the 5-8, but hitting the 14-point cut doesn't help if our opponent gets his average this hand and next and goes out before we count next turn.

A-8 is the compromise, about as good as we can do from a defensive hold without retaining at least 4 points (since the cut has to help us).

I would lead the 6 and do my best to dodge the dealer scoring any points, and wish my hand wasn't quite this bunched.

   

Thursday 5:54 AM

Glanced at fentesk comment above as I was about to post..I agree with him.

   

Thursday 6:23 AM

Wow, I think this is the first time I've held the bottom hand but here are my thoughts. For starters I'm not throwing a 5 to dealer with 95. Clearly need to play defence. Hold the A for pegging and throw even, non-connectors in dealer's crib. My first impulse was to keep 5668, which is what I might have done quickly in a game setting.

   

Thursday 7:28 AM

I don't want to hold 2 points so I am not fearing the 5-8 toss. Unfortunately the cut does not help me.

   

Thursday 7:50 AM

The scores are tied at 26 away with opponent's crib. Looks like there's a couple of ways to proceed. We could try playing aggressive and toss (5 8) or (5 6). The latter seems very dangerous since it can make high-scoring runs and lots of 15s in opponent's crib. Also we're not that desparate to score big. Our opponent needs to slip into a single under-average hand or crib for us to have a big advantage.

If we were truely desparate for a large score (say 101-115*), we would surely keep (6 6 8 8) and hope for a 7 cut. However because we're both 26 away with opponent to score first next hand, it seems counterproductive to improve their crib when we can give them an almost average discard like (A 6) or (A 8). So what's the difference?

With double 6 and double 8 in hand we block a number of runs in dealer's hand, i.e. they have far fewer hands like (6 7 8 -) but they still have the same number of runs like (9 T J -) etc. Consequenly, I think dealer throws away more odd 7's than odd 9's so I think the discard averages for (A 6) and (A 8) are a little bit closer than normal. Note that (A 6) usually scores more than (A 8). But I'm not entirely sure if blocking effects are enough here to change what I'm tossing. So I'll toss (A 8) today but the answer might very well be (A 6).

J cut is bad for slowing down the dealer. For the play, I do think that dealer has very few 7s left in their hand so 8 could be a safe lead. But this leaves us with fewer options later on and we could easily get trapped. However, we were always a little stuck if dealer has a 7 since our hand is so concentrated. I think, the most common and highest scoring dealer hands that contain a 7 are of the form (5 7 x x) or (7 x x x) which are around 6-8 pts after the J cut. Against these hands leading 6 is much better with lines starting 6-x-6-5/7/go which saves pone a lot of points over disasters like 8-7-6-x or 8-7-5-5. I think the dealer hand ranges are interesting to think about here but it's probably just correct to lead 6 and try to pacify dealer as much as possible.

   

Thursday 2:37 PM

I think it's between A-6-6-8 (5-8) and 6-6-8-8 (A-5) or perhaps 5-6-6-8 (A-8):

A-6-6-8: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = -½pt

6-6-8-8: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.01) = -2¼pts

5-6-6-8: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -2¾pts

Potential:

A-6-6-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 66, 7777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10/12/14pts with all cuts.

6-6-8-8: Improves with AAA, 3333, 66, 7777, 88, 9999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12/20pts with AAA, 66, 7777, 88, 9999 = 15 cuts.

5-6-6-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/12/14pts with AAA, 4444, 66, 7777, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're both 1pt short of 4th street positional hole but as Pone we're positionally a long way behind. So I'll play Offense to try to improve our position.

Pegging:

I think A-6-6-8 will peg slightly best.

Summary:

A-6-6-8 is best for starting value by 1¾pts and although 5-6-6-8 has guaranteed improvement with 17 cuts for 6-14pts and 6-6-8-8 has 15 cuts for 8-20pts, A-6-6-8 has 23 cuts all of which score 8-14pts and also I think it will peg best. So I do not think the other two hands will catch up the 1¾pts therefore I'll throw 5-8.

   

Thursday 2:39 PM

At 95-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-6-6-8____8.30+(-2.83)+(-6.24)=(-0.77)__47.4____45.5
5-6-6-8____5.78+(-3.02)+(-4.15)=(-1.39)__37.4____50.1
5-6-8-8____5.35+(-2.93)+(-4.08)=(-1.66)__32.0____48.4
A-6-8-8____7.96+(-2.76)+(-7.41)=(-2.21)__42.2____37.2
6-6-8-8____6.78+(-2.98)+(-6.27)=(-6.27)__35.3____41.0

Defense_____L2 %____L3 %
A-6-6-8______50.1____40.4
5-6-6-8______41.1____37.2
5-6-8-8______40.1____39.8
A-6-8-8______57.1____50.4
6-6-8-8______48.8____47.5

A-6-6-8 is best for expected averages by 0.62pt and is very much best for Win %s. Although 5-6-6-8 is very much lower for Loss %s I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the A and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
A____________________(-2.42)
6____________________(-2.49)
8____________________(-2.96)

   

Thursday 3:03 PM

I hear JQT. but threw 5-8.

   

Thursday 3:52 PM

It was a very close, borderline decision here for me with the score tied at 95-95....I am torn between defending and wanting to keep enough points to ensure I am in a good enough position to count out in the next 2 deals...if I fail, then dealer will probably once again have the advantage (to peg out) 2 hands from now when he is the dealer once again...But also have to be a little cautious, as he is right on the cusp of 4th street CPZ (95-99) on the current deal. (A 8) is certainly a better defensive throw, but then I am left with only 2 starting pts, although guaranteed improvement to 4, and not a very good defensive pegging hand which is tightly bunched. (5 8) is certainly a more dangerous crib throw containing a 5, but starts with 6 pts, and actually creates a little more comfort through the lead of my lone ace here for the rest of the pegging. So on balance, by a slim margin, I will opt to start with my 6 points here. J cut is unfortunate, as it puts him to 97 and does not improve my hand...If he was starting from hole 97, I would have been much more reluctant to get rid of the 5. Lead the A and play defense.

   

Thursday 11:49 PM

Have to keep opponent in game on extra hand so we can finish counting first. I get keeping the 566 together offers chance to wildly switch fortunes, but giving 8's away always bites me, so I'm tossing A,6. With the right spinner, this could be a really good hand too.