October 11, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
71*-83  ?
50%
14%
13%
10%
5%
3%
2%
0%
Total votes: 226
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
I like the double rum which increases with every cut for a minimum of 10 points and a possible of 16 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Oops! No one noticed "double rum".
dec says: I did and if you like pina coladas do it up! dec
james500 says: I like pina coladas and getting caught in the rain. https://youtu.be/TazHNpt6OTo
Rosemarie44 says: Thanks dec and James for contributing to a wonderful morning of cribbage, pina coladas and Rupert Holmes' music.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
What a complex arrangement of cards! And what a challenging Relative Position! We have our work cut out for us today.

I do believe that every discarding decision can be evaluated by a few key concepts, and if we're lucky, often it can be reduced down to just one theme or idea.

Today, I have decided that all we probably need to do is this: Calculate how many 7 Cards we wish to discard! And it sounds so easy, since there is no FLUSH.

Do we stash a PAIR of 7 Cards? Or do we relinquish from our hand just one 7 Card, via Toss (2 7), or Toss (5 7)? Or shall we discard no 7 Cards whatsoever, and consider Toss (5 6) or Toss (2 5)?

And even though this seemingly simple task does seem to cover the gamut of our available discard ideas today, none of these however are easy choices!

The Double Run of Keep (5 6 7 7) and Toss (2 7) is very appealing, but the fact that Pone is possibly already 'on pace' to beat us could make Keep (6 7 7 7) and Toss (2 5) very attractive as well.

I am less drawn to either Keep (2 5 6 7) and Toss (7 7) as well as Keep (2 6 7 7) and Toss (5 7), since almost any Cut that helps either of these choices will help the prior choices examined earlier even more.

I'll settle for the suited Toss (2 7), and after the Ten "T" Card Cut, we might regret not having the 5 Card in our Crib, but we are at least well-armed for a good pegging battle!
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:10 AM
Hoping for some magic in the crib, but with three sevens already out of circulation, 5_6 is a wee bit less likely to find a friend.

7-7-2 sixteen may bring 31/2.
Eolus619 says: James..still working on my cut help from 13/13 list..5-6-7-7 …..5-6-7-8 …and ….5-6-7-9 are the last three on the list..at least so far!
Eolus619 says: it’s the keeps from the first one to here that is a work in progress
Eolus619 says: As you & Mike pointed out on October 5…A-2-3-4 ..is the first keep on the list
james500 says: Good work Bruce, more power to your elbow. As much as this site has improved my game and taught me many valuable lessons, I can often be guilty of what Rob mentions below - "over thinking" puzzles by looking for some clever solution despite the better answer being the more obvious one, such as today when I could keep a double run that increases in value after every cut. "Never look a gift horse in the mouth", so to speak.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 3:40 AM
Don’t overthink this hand-as Rosemary stated every cut improves the hand to at least 10-and it pegs very well versus picture card and middle card pone hands-big congrats to Dan for his consolation tournament win in Appleton yesterday,and Mike for his win in Brookline-well deserved
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:00 AM
Lots of very good points. A chance at a sixteen point hand makes me not even think about discarding a five. Congrats to Dan and Mike. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:11 AM
Must go for double run. Well behind.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:33 AM
No need to get fancy here, double-run hypnosis does not come into play. If the hand was 25677X would consider 5X. Thanks for the kudos!
glmccuskey says: Congratulations Dan on your big win yesterday in Appleton.
SallyAnn3 says: Well done, Dan! Two CHOD regular commentators won consey tournies yesterday. wowowowowow :)
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 5:39 AM
This is not one of those times to break up the double run.
scottcrib
1630 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 5:42 AM
Yay Mike and Dan!
Eolus619
1335 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 6:09 AM
71*-83….86-93*…96*-109…112-119*
another good example of relative score verse board position score

very briefly ..sending the five to my crib caught my eye..But I recovered my senses in time to keep the double run starting with eight..Read Rosemarie for details..that is if you can get through all the empty drink glasses cluttering her comments

and congrats to Mike & Dan..both were cooking with gas on all four burners!
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:52 AM
Easy choice today.
fentesk
1196 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Monday 7:16 AM
I'd really like to hold pone under 10 points today, which made me strongly consider keeping the 2 and the 7s together to ensure I at least didn't get stuck trading runs.

In the end, I decided the strength of the double run (compared to my weak pegging game) was enough to keep the 5-6-7-7 and the minimum 10 points. I keep wishing that 2 was an A to let me confidently toss the 5-6, but no matter how many times I refresh the page, it stays a 2. Off it goes to the crib where hopefully it meets a 3 or 6 after the 10 cut.
wasa
3012 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 7:32 AM
Wanted to toss the 5 into my crib but couldn't figure out a good way to do so. Kept the double run instead. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 10:44 AM
Just an echo - want to limit n/d progress down the board at hole 83 - needs 12 points to reach 4th street CPZ 95-99. N/d chances of scoring 12 points are one of 4. Let n/d do that without my help in the pegging. Was thinking of defense to include the pegging strategy after looking at the pegs and
cards. After seeing starter card will shift to optimal as know that haver guaranteed peg, ten points in hand, and a likely low-scoring crib with 2-7 down and a 10 spot on the deck. That means that RAS would play the five on a X-lead and hope to get the count advanced to 25 so my 6 will score 31-2. Would pair a 7 and play the 6 on a 9 lead though would not pair a six, Would play the six spot on an 8 lead and play the 7D on any lead A-5. That's about it.
fentesk says: Ras, while not your choice today, I was interested in any thoughts you could share on how you would approach pegging if you had kept the 2-7-7-7 as dealer (or perhaps a more appealing hold like A-7-7-7? Is there a general goal of when to play the low card? I would normally try to keep two 7s together for the end, which would have me playing the low card as my second (and if not the first), but wanted to see how nuanced that decision should be. I wouldn't be surprised if the A-7-7-7 and 2-7-7-7 may have different answers given the "16" of the latter. Thanks!
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: On all small card leads of 1-4 would play a 7. On mid card leads would pair a seven and drop the Ace on other mid cards. On X-point leads, would play a seven and escape with the Ace. If choosing an offense strategy, it would be much the same, primary difference being would play a 7 on 7 or 8 lead. Does that hit around the edges enough to give an idea on how to peg? With cards of only two denominations we are at a great disadvantage to peg. Sometimes that is a very good thing.
fentesk says: Much appreciated!
MiketheExpert
1116 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 3:36 PM
Very late to the party today, however I am in agreement with keeping the double run and a guaranteed 10 pts, although I wanted to find a way to throw that 5 into my crib. After the cut only increasing my hand to 10 pts and my guaranteed pegging pt, I will take non-risky pegs here, including 15 a face-card lead or pairing a 7...I have 2 concerns trailing by 12 pts here...both keeping myself in decent shape by maintaining my average, and not giving away any extra pts to pone here....My (2 7) suited toss does not have high expectation in the crib after this cut, and so I need to upgrade my outlook from a defensive standpoint and try to score more pts at a manageable risk.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 4:03 PM
I think it's between 2-6-7S-7C (5-7D) and 5-6-7S-7C (2-7D):

2-6-7S-7C: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 12pts

5-6-7S-7D: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 12pts

Potential:

2-6-7S-7C: Improves with AAAA, 222, 555, 666, 7, 8888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/16pts with 222, 555, 666, 7, 8888 = 14 cuts.

5-6-7S-7D: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 7, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 7, 8888 = 22 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past 3rd street positional hole while Pone is 1pt short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-6-7S-7C will peg better with the 2 as an out card.

Summary:

The starting values are equal for both hands (although Schell puts 2-6-7S-7C 0.20pt ahead). However 5-6-7S-7D has guaranteed improvement and 22 cuts for 12-16pts compared to 14 cuts for 12/16pts with 2-6-7S-7C. So although 2-6-7S-7D ought to peg better I'll go with 5-6-7S-7C and throw the suited 2-7.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:13 PM
At 71*-85 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
5-6-7S-7D__11.72+(-1.96)+3.53=13.29____19.5____30.4
6-7-7-7_____9.24+(-2.28)+5.52=12.48____18.1____29.2
2-6-7S-7C___8.52+(-2.30)+5.80=12.02____15.7____28.0

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
5-6-7S-7C______48.8____60.1
6-7-7-7________44.6____60.9
2-6-7S-7C______46.1____63.1

5-6-7S-7D is best for expected averages by 0.81pt and is slightly best for Win %s. Although 6-7-7-7 is lowest for Loss %s I'll still select 2-7C to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.