Saturday 3:38 AM

Tempting to keep the 2 pairs here but with a small lead early on 2nd street I prefer reducing by 2 to throw the ultra defensive K-10-plenty of time to get those points back

   

Saturday 4:04 AM

Perhaps I'm a slow learner, but I haven't kept the two pairs today either. Lead the 10.

   

Saturday 4:20 AM

As Pone at Hole 36, our primary goal should be an attempt to become Next Dealer at or beyond the Second Street Par Hole 44 by completion of This Deal.

However, since Toss (J K) cannot ensure this result, we may wish to approach this more tentatively.

If we needed Ten Points, we might Toss (4 4), but at this juncture, this is clearly the wrong approach.

Something as innocuous as Toss (J K) might appear harmless; and while normally it is, compared to Toss (T K), it's about One Full Point more dangerous!

Thus, let's send a Boat Anchor 'over the board' today with Toss (T K), which meanwhile allows for some pretty good Cuts to occur. Since we're probably going nowhere today, let's drag the Dealer along with us!

After the prosaic Deuce Cut, we're none the worse for wear, and we'll lead a 4 Card, just because we can!

   

Saturday 4:39 AM

We still could count eleven. K-10 one of the best discard. Only question left lead a four do we trip it when the times come? dec

   

Saturday 4:58 AM

I can see that I am in the minority today but I kept the two pairs for 4 points with a chance for 12. Statistics show me this is the way to go.

   

Saturday 5:55 AM

36-32*…46*-48…62-58*…72*-74…….98*-100

By displaying the cycle #s to compliment JQT’s board position words, one can see Pone is walking a tight rope involving two points of losing his/her advantage. How to play this type of hand makeup is , according to Gougie00 , what separates elite players from the pack. I am going to choose to attempt to reach 44 & toss J-Q. I will need to muster a total of eight points. ( probably two from pegging ) An ugly keep , getting cut help from only an A,4,5,7 & 10. Keep 4-4-10-J tosses a very defensive K-10 & gets cut help from A,4,5,7,9,10,J & Q. That said, 44 is my goal today and holding the two pairs is best way imo. The VERY good news here is , I am on the “right” side of the cycle as to who deals first from CPZ#4 ..now I need to maintain it. I see have landed in Rosemarie’s camp. That makes me feel better, not sure it makes her feel better !!

   

Saturday 6:03 AM

Like the K10 to opponent, hopefully fives not thrown...

   

Saturday 6:11 AM

Weirdly I admit, for some reason this morning, I overlooked the toss of (4 K) and keeping the potential double run, because I was SO focused on what is likely to be the potential dispute today, which is the choice between keeping both pairs (4 4 10 10) and throwing the (J K), or throwing the (10 K) instead. But even including this 3rd choice into my equation, I will still choose what I selected here, the (10 K).

This contradicts my statement of liking to keep 2 pairs widely spaced as per yesterday's puzzle. But even so, I am choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging here, and between the 2 choices of (J K) and (10 K) as pone, regardless of strategy, I will almost choose (10 K) everytime. Tossing the lowest value discard into dealer's crib, at the same time keeping the J (10 J) combo in my hand seems to outweigh the value of keeping my pair of tens no matter what. The 2D cut adds a measly 1 pt for my nobs, thus anyway I saved this from being scored in the dealer's crib.

Will be very hard pressed to deal from hole 44 now on the following hand. Lead the 4 and hope he pairs it for a triple.

   

Saturday 6:13 AM

Giving up those two points seems like insurance and maybe we can get a double run out of it.

   

Saturday 7:37 AM

I'll hold my modest 4 points with the chance for a 12. Lead the 4 and try to muster some offense.

Anyone besides me noticing a lag in this website? Its been slow as a slug in recent times.

   

Saturday 9:55 AM

Since today's choices are very interesting, I took the initiative to "map out" three of the popular choices.

Note that after we retain Two PAIRS and Keep (4 4 T T) and Toss (J K), we risk a bit more 'over the board,' but we also have the noticeably higher Hand Average. But with this choice, we also have a very large number (Thirty!) "loser" Cuts.

If we instead Keep (4 4 T J) and Toss (T K), we have the lowest Crib Value given to our Opponent, and interestingly, of these three choices, it has the fewest number of "loser" Cuts (Cuts that add nothing to our Hand).

Finally, if we Keep (4 T T J) and Toss (4 K), once we calculate our Expected Average for our Hand and then subtract the Crib Value that we send over to our Opponent, this choice has the lowest overall NET Total of the three choices being examined here.


(36-32*) (4h 4d Ts Tc Jd Kh) Cut 2d by Ras2829 Oct 23, 2021.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Keep (4 4 T T) Toss (J K)

Expected Average is: 256 / 46 = 5.565
Crib Value is: 4.770
Total: 0.795

04x12=048 - AAAA (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 12 Points)
08x08=064 - 44, 5555, TT (12 cuts >= 8 Points)
04x06=024 - 7777 (16 cuts >= 6 Points)
30x04=120 - 2222, 3333, 6666, 8888, 9999, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK (Minimum Hand, 30 Cuts = 2 Points)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Keep (4 4 T J) Toss (T K)

Expected Average is: 201 / 46 = 4.370
Crib Value is: 3.880
Total: 0.490

01x11=011 - Ad (Maximum Hand, 1 cut = 11 Points)
03x10=030 - AAA (4 cuts >= 10 Points)
01x07=007 - 5d (5 cuts >= 7 Points)
07x06=042 - 44, 555, 9d, Qd (12 cuts >= 6 Points)
08x05=040 - 7d, 999, Td, QQQ (20 cuts >= 5 Points)
07x04=028 - 777, T, JJJ (27 cuts >= 4 Points)
05x03=015 - 2d, 3d, 6d, 8d, Kd (32 cuts >= 3 Points)
14x02=028 - 222, 333, 666, 888, KK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 2 Points)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Keep (4 T T J) Toss (4 K)

Expected Average is: 217 / 46 = 4.717
Crib Value is: 4.360
Total: 0.357

04x09=036 - Ad, 5d, 9d, Qd (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 9 Points)
12x08=096 - AAA, 555, 999, QQQ (16 cuts >= 8 Points)
01x07=007 - Td (17 cuts >= 7 Points)
01x06=006 - T (18 cuts >= 6 Points)
05x04=020 - 44, JJJ (23 cuts >= 4 Points)
06x03=018 - 2d, 3d, 6d, 7d, 8d, Kd (29 cuts >= 3 Points)
17x02=034 - 222, 333, 666, 777, 888, KK (Minimum Hand, 17 Cuts = 2 Points)

   

Saturday 3:29 PM

I think it's between 4-4-10-10 (J-K) and 4H-10-10-J (4D-K):

4-4-10-10: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.77) = -1pt

4H-10-10-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = -2½pts

Potential:

4-4-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 44, 5555, 7777, 1010 = 16 cuts = 34.8% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 44, 5555, 1010 = 12 cuts.

4H-10-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 44, 5555, 9999, 1010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/8pts with AAAA, 5555, 9999, 1010, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We need just 8pts to reach 2nd street positional hole. I'll play Offense and try to get as far past as possible.

Pegging:

I think 4H-10-10-J may peg slightly better play Offense.

Summary:

Taking account of the nob potential 4-4-10-10 is 1¼pts higher for starting value. 4H10-10-J has 7 more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 6/8pts, which is a big increase on 2pts, however 4-4-10-10 has 16 cuts for 8-12pts which would put us in a good position being at or past the positional hole. So although 4H-10-10-J may peg slightly better I don't think it will catch up the difference so I'll throw J-K.

   

Saturday 3:31 PM

At 36-32* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
4-4-10-J___4.37+1.11+(-3.82)=1.66____42.8____29.0
4-4-10-10__5.57+1.00+(-4.94)=1.63____45.0____29.4
4H-10-10-J_4.72+1.15+(-4.27)=1.60____43.2____28.2

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
4-4-10-J______52.5____50.6
4-4-10-10_____55.2____50.3
4H-10-10-J____54.2____51.4

4-4-10-J is best for Win %s by 0.03pt and although 4-4-10-10 is best for Win %s it isn't lowest for Loss %s which 4-4-10-J is. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
4____________________1.32
10___________________1.18
J____________________1.13

   

Sunday 12:00 AM

HalscriobCLX says it all for me this day as to strategy, discard, and lead. It's offense to include the pegging from the outset. Lead the 4D so as to keep flush fake alive.