October 24, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Eolus619
118*-114  ?
46%
14%
10%
7%
6%
5%
4%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 190
Ras2829
5124 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:09 AM
Nothing here scores two offensive pegs. Even so will go with the best of the pegging cards available (A-4-58) and will take any pegs offered. Odds of holding n/d to six points is 1 of 6. Dealer average pegs are 3.5; so pegging out has far greater ehance than limiting non-dealer to six.
mrob2199
1406 votes

Joined: February 2009

Sunday 3:11 AM
This hold of one of each covers a lot of bases as to mimicking possible pone holds
james500
3894 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:13 AM
Would be a nice time to cut a Jack.
One of each to cover as many leads as possible.
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:14 AM
Once again, "Hand of the Day" is usurped by "Pegging of the Day" as well it often should, since every exciting, closely-contested game of Cribbage should involve some sort of Endgame Pegging Battle! And I'm a Big Fan!

Dealer needing to peg Three Holes is a Special Case, and it's nice to see that we dealt ourselves No Jacks today, since now we enjoy the condition that 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 which is to say that we have nearly a 9% chance that the Cut Card shall be a Jack, obviating our need to do any work whatsoever today, since unless Pone pegs out and WINS the game FIRST, the Dealer always pegs One Hole!

But to rely upon a Jack Cut is to miss an opportunity to actually EARN this Victory with our cunning skill and logic, so let's 'dig in' deep and perform some work and do our due diligence.

Pone must lead, and so we have the proverbial "first swing at the bat" and thus first opportunity to score. If we PAIR the Lead Card, and Pone is fortunate enough to have PAIRS Royal, then Pone must play another card with the score tied at (120-120)! We Should Never Give Up!

Ordinarily, we would be holding onto some "Double Duty" cards that we could discard, since for example after a 7 Card Lead, both a 7 Card and an 8 Card can score; and the same goes for a 6 Card and a 9 Card. More significantly, since we have a 5 Card, this can score after ANY Ten (or "X") Card Lead, and so we could usually strongly consider ridding ourselves of any "X" Cards today.

But since we hold just two 8 Cards and no other "middle" cards, and since we hold no "X" cards whatsoever, we have none of these "Double Duty" cards. But we do hold Two PAIRS. We can probably rid ourselves of half of these PAIRS, since it would be very rare that, after Pone might play PAIRS Royal after we PAIR a 4 Card Lead, that we would be able to play the "Case" 4 Card and WIN.

Thus, it's tempting and logical to Toss (4 8) today and retain our maximum variety and be done with it and move onward. It's vital to understand that our chances of pegging One Hole for either a "go" or for Last Card are NOT diminished if we are able to score upon the First or Lead Card by Pone; and so, scoring immediately, unless Pone can peg out FIRST, is tantamount to WINNING!

We do have one final consideration to make, and that is the higher pegging value of the 4 Card(s) as opposed to the 8 Card(s). After a "go" at a Count of up to Twenty-Three, we can indeed play our 4 Cards (if we still hold them) back-to-back for the WIN! The second 4 Card probably has more Pegging Value than does a solitary 8 Card. This may make holding onto BOTH 4 Cards exceed the value of holding ANY of the 8 Cards! This final decision thus forms the crux of this puzzle!

The 8 Card ONLY allows us to either: scoring upon the unlikely event of a 7 Card or 8 Card Lead by Pone, or; later PAIRING of an 8 Card at a Count below Twenty-Three, or a (31=2) at a Count of Twenty-Three. These are both very rare instances, and so it begs us to ask the question: should we instead Toss (8 8) today?! And I think maybe we should do so.

After Toss (8 8), we Cut a 7 Card: will that ignite a fire in Pone's Heart and now prompt them to actually lead a 7 Card or an 8 Card? Probably not, but we ought to prepare for the worst! We should fear even more if we PAIR an Ace Lead or a 5 Card Lead, since pone may very well hold PAIRS Royal, and as I indicated earlier, we may suddenly find ourselves in a very heated and pitched battle at (120-120)! But we should be brave and risk it, since Pone is currently only at Hole 114. It's good advice in Life, and so, too, in Cribbage: "Do what you're afraid of!"

After a lead such as a Deuce or a Trey, we 'entice' Pone by replying with our 4 Card. After a Middle Card Lead such as 7, 8, or 9 Card, I think we unload one of our duplicate 4 Cards, and "proceed to the checkout line" (the final volley of pegging) with Maximum Variety!

The longer we go without scoring, the worse our odds of winning become, but any final PAIR alongside a "go" can WIN this game for us as Dealer, and so we not only have a very good chance of winning, but we could score All Three Points in "One Fell Swoop" and do so with our Last Card Played! Be Brave!
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:42 AM
Opening leads of A-4-7-8-X , after watching for 3-6 plays. dec
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:47 AM
"One of the each" like my friend Claude used to say.
duke62
1482 votes

Joined: September 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 6:59 AM
Lead an 8. Unless a Jack is cut I can see only one pegging scenario where he can peg out with this hold (assuming we peg defensively). And we're holding enough so we don't need a cut and/or to peg at least one.
duke62 says: Oops, I read it as if we were pone. Sorry.
MiketheExpert
1093 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 7:08 AM
It is not a certainty we will need to peg out today in order to win, however I need to assume we will. Pone's position at 114 is just as critical as my own in deciding which cards to keep today. It will have to be one of each...and no matter what the lead, if I have a scoring response, I am going to take it.

This will only automatically become a losing strategy if he happens to lead a 5, I pair it, and he responds with another 5 to fifteen...However, I will be very hard pressed to peg enough with any other response to a 5, and with a lead like this, is is almost certainly over if it makes it to his hand count anyway...

Guaranteed improvement on the cut to at least 2 pts, thus I will win if I either peg out first (trying really hard to do this), or if he fails to count out on his hand, as I have scored the required 3 pts!
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:11 AM
Holding one of each covers most leads.
wasa
2990 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 7:33 AM
One of each, but chose the two diamonds vs the two hearts
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 8:26 AM
Lot's of pegging choices
Fender Bass says: I just automatically tossed the suited 8 in my crib with the 4
scottcrib
1607 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 10:10 AM
scottcrib says: One of each.
Sally3 says: Big CONGRATS to Scott for being @nd high qualifier and placing 3/4 in the Medeiros Memorial in Raleigh this morning :)
Sally3 says: 2nd*
mfetchCT425 says: WTG Scott! Congratulations and well done.
scottcrib says: Thanks. I had a great time and met some great people.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 4:33 PM
Either we play Defense to hold Pone back as much as possible or perhaps more profitably we try to peg the 3pts needed to Win before Pone scores First Hand or the unlikely chance of pegging 7pts.

If you wanted to play Defense I think the 4-4-8-8 (A-5) would be the better choice but I prefer Offense and try to peg 3pts with A-4-4-5 so I'll throw 8-8.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:42 PM
At 118*-114 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %s and Win %s are:

Optimal_______Peg Out %________Win %
A-4-5-8__________42.8__________13.5
A-4-4-5__________41.1__________14.7
4-4-5-8__________32.8__________20.6
4-5-8-8__________30.6__________20.9
A-5-8-8__________29.2__________20.5
A-4-8-8__________19.3__________21.3
A-4-4-8__________15.1__________18.8
4-4-8-8__________12.5__________25.2

A-4-5-8 and A-4-4-5 are very similar overall but A-4-5-8 is slightly better so I'll throw the suited 4-8.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829 says: Needing three peg points to win, opponent needing 7 to win, why play defense to the lead? Sorry my hero! RAS would grab every peg available.
JQT says: Peg Out percentages should also be much higher, perhaps almost twice as high! Dealer pegging average is 3.5 holes; even against Defensive Pone, we have an adequate pegging hand, and should peg out three out of four times. I think the Win numbers however can and should be ignored, as they were, since this looks at what occurs AFTER the pegging. But the pegging percentages look suspiciously low.
JQT says: If only we could build a time machine, and look into the future, and hope that HalscribCLX will look at these numbers once again, and post an UPDATED version for this puzzle tomorrow!