November 24, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
101-96*  ?
74%
17%
5%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 231
fenteskActual cut - 7 of hearts. Dealer discarded 5-8.
Sally3
37 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Wednesday 3:01 AM
Flush points with a 5/x, touchers in the crib. Looked better than 5/x to crib
JQT
3278 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:08 AM
At a score of (101-96*), we are so far out of position, we are like Earth, orbiting somewhere between Uranus and Neptune. With a weak hand here, we might hope to win such a game maybe only one out of five times.

Toss (A 2) only exceeds Toss (9 K) in Crib Value 'over the board' by about One Point. Here, even at this awkward Relative Position, I'll retain the FLUSH and Toss (A 2); and who knows: with a decent Cut, maybe we'll now win two out of five games!

After the 5 Card Cut, let's aggressively lead the 7 Card, and possibly we can peg enough to be able to peg out as the Next Dealer.
james500
3051 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:10 AM
Tempted by K9. Will be interesting to read the comments from those who choose it.
mrob2199
815 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:25 AM
Even if we keep the flush and cut the perfect 8 of clubs it’s still very unlikely we get clues enough to peg out next hand-so it’s all out defense here-the K-9 is one of the best defensive discards and the A257 should be able to navigate pegging traps dealer might be prone to set
Andy (muesli64)
2028 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 4:04 AM
Err to JQT today if A-2 is only one point worse that 9-K. Oppo is only just on fourth street. What does Halscrib say?
dec
5447 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:19 AM
Defense is needed here. Playing to win. Matters more what they get here. So, it is the hit or miss A-2. If that nine was a six, eight or a Jack flush would have been more palatable. Two I start with, play off. dec
zeke76
1080 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 5:03 AM
Gosh this is an ugly position. I fear flushing we set up our opponent to go out on first count next time, but the alternative is so anemic ….
scottcrib
754 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 5:17 AM
Faltered many times down the stretch being too defensive. Dealer is not in great position, so I'll toss A-2 and keep the 6 points. Cautiously defensive pegging. Lead the K.
Gougie00
4837 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:28 AM
Maximum defense.
Ras2829
4283 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:48 AM
Combined values (pegs, hand score, and crib score) favor holding the flush by a wide margin. Lead the 7 and move down the board. Will be headed for the mountains of northeast Oregon this morn, off this site for a few days. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Jazzselke
1933 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:02 AM
Our best cut with any configuration will not place us close, so agree with total D. K9 solid unless of course they throw the common 78.
mfetchCT425
1001 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 6:20 AM
Total defense here since we have little chance to get close o home on this deal. Maybe we can balk their crib and keep them short of hole 111.
glmccuskey
3484 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 6:57 AM
Not worried about moving my pegs, just have to prevent the dealer from moving their pegs.
MiketheExpert
242 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Wednesday 6:58 AM
With this board position, it would seem that defense is warranted, as I don't believe I will prevent my opponent from getting his next 3 hand counts (this hand + crib + first count (next deal).

However, I am far enough out of position that I don't believe I can give up 4 pts by refusing to keep the flush, as the difference in crib value between tossing the (9 K) and the (A 2) doesn't warrant ruining our combined hand value so much. (A 2) isn't exactly a dangerous crib throw, although clearly not as safe as the 2nd best (9 K).

Thus, it is toss (A 2), and after the 5 is cut, let's play defense and lead the K on the pegging, since we have a 5 in our hand AND a 5 is the cut card. Now let's try and limit his board movement as the best thing we can do.
31for14
455 votes

Joined: May 2019

   
Wednesday 8:49 AM
Total defense here. You will be in control if you can blank his crib.
superdow
86 votes

Joined: February 2016

   
Wednesday 10:35 AM
With a 10 point hand I don't think I w0uld peg aggressively since dealer at 96 with a decent hand could easily go out on next deal if he gets a 15 point average deal hand. I have more than enough points with this ten hand without additional pegs to go out as dealer next hand. Just need to make sure I get a change to play them.
Fender Bass
149 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Wednesday 11:13 AM
Seems like we did the best we could do. Now play defense.
wasa
2164 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 11:15 AM
I like flushes
Coeurdelion
4742 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 1:06 PM
I think it's between A-5-9-K (2-7) and 5-7-9-K (A-2):

A-5-9-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

5-7-9-K: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = +1pt

Potential:

A-5-9-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 555, 999, KKK = 12 cuts.

5-7-9-K: Improves with AAA, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 10/11pts with 555, 6666, 8888, KKK = 14 cuts. Plus 9 clus for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We need 20pts to get out so we're very unlikely to achieve that in this deal. Opponent is right on the 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense and try to keep them as short of 111pts as possible.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well playing Defense. A-5-9-K is nicely spaced while the flush will be hard to read.

Summary:

5-7-9-K has the better starting value by 2pts and it has more cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 10/11pts compared to 12 cuts for 8/10pts for A-5-9-K. Plus it has an extra 0.20pt potential for a club turn-up. So I'll throw the A-2.
HalscribCLX
4468 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 1:10 PM
At 101-96* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
5-7-9-K____8.67+(-3.02)+(-4.84)= 0.81____0.0____44.1
A-5-9-K____6.04+(-2.76)+(-4.74)=(-1.46)___0.0____36.2
A-2-5-7____5.17+(-2.63)+(-4.01)=(-1.47)___0.0____40.2

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
5-7-9-K________4.8____48.6
A-5-9-K________4.3____49.6
A-2-5-7________2.7____45.3

5-7-9-K is best for expected averages by 2.27pts and is best for Win %s. However for Loss %s for this deal and next A-2-5-7 is much lower. Even so I'll select A-2 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts._____Loss %
K___________________(-2.28)_____________1.7
9___________________(-2.37)_____________1.0
7___________________(-2.55)_____________0.9
5___________________(-2.94)_____________1.5

The K lead is lowest for Dealers Pegging Points but the 7 lead has the lowest chance of Losing so I'll lead the 7.