November 26, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0-0*  ?
45%
45%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 209
scottcribAnother "lovely" eCribbage hand from earlier this week. Pick your discard poison.
Sally3
96 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Friday 3:02 AM
No fear of the 6=9 toss. Holding a decent hand with some hope
james500
3111 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:14 AM
8-10 with two nines out of circulation doesn't seem too scary, and still leaves a reasonable hand. 9Sp lead.
JQT
3338 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:15 AM
While our "absolute" score might fall a point or two 'short,' I think we should gain at least One Point NET by being a little bit prudent today with Toss (8 T).
mrob2199
852 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 4:24 AM
Like the 5-6-9-9 hold here-if the dealer has all pictures we will outpeg him 5-1 with a 9 lead-the 8-10 discard while holding 2 nines should be pretty safe
Lyndi3 says: *now* I see how this looks better. Need to commit it to memory now
Lyndi3 says: haha on my daughter's computer
Jazzselke says: Great pegging strategy. About to play in Grand Rapids
Sally3 says: Say hi to everyone for me! Keep me posted. Can use FB Messenger
usacoder
833 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Friday 4:26 AM
I always take the double run for 8. And for this situation, make it 10.
Gougie00
4894 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 4:49 AM
A sure 8 with a chance for 16? I will sacrifice the 56.
dec
5514 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 4:50 AM
1. Trust in making discard decisions 2. Play some sort of defense. 3. Rely on making choices especially later in the game based on positions. It is a counting site Scott so sometimes those things get compromised but overall better odds-on decisions win more games overall. Luck is relative whether it be 60 or 70 percent. dec
MiketheExpert
302 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Friday 6:50 AM
We can be aggressive on hand 1, but there is a limit for sure. I think (8 10) is by far the superior choice. Of course holding the double run gives you max possibilities, and some people like to GO for it, but I'm not going to throw (5 6) in order to try it, when (8 10) gives me a MUCH safer crib toss, and still very good chances to improve this 6-pt holding.

After the J cut giving us an 8-pt hold, lead the 9 holding two of them, and I would take pegs if offered.
MiketheExpert says: The only cuts that would have me regretting this decision really is the 8 or the 10, that is only 6 DIV 46 cuts, which is not enough for the risk imo, especially when there are many cuts which improve this hand which will not help the double run.
scottcrib
811 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Friday 7:01 AM
I went this way and am pleasantly surprised by the number of commenters that tossed 8-10 as well. Lead the 9sp.
Fender Bass
209 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Friday 7:12 AM
Still like the double run and tossing 5/6 isn't always gonna be disaster.
Inushtuk1
784 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 9:30 AM
As games's starting non-dealer I will GO for it. But reckless decisions like this are one of the reasons I never qualify for an ACC Main Tournament back in 2017/18. And who's to say Colvert wouldn't have tossed (8-10) in this situation. I remember Ras saying that Colvert often kept the A-2-3-4 run for its pegging, even though he advised against it if holding a lone 9, X, 6, or an 8.
JQT says: I can see why some eCrib Players might risk this, since Double Runs on the site seem as frequent there as Home Runs were back in the 1996-1998 Home Run Derby Days of Baseball with Mark McGwire at bat! But Toss (5 6) has a Crib Value of Seven Points, so holding onto the Double Run here is tantamount to purchasing an eight-dollar lunch and then paying a Seven-Dollar Tip! Mind you, some servers and waitresses are indeed that good (I almost said "and that pretty," but we don't want to see Cancel Culture rear its highly disproportionate and unsymmetrical head here in the Daily Cribbage Hand, do we?). Incidentally, while RAS is over in the Blue Mountains of Oregon, we might as well talk about him: Toss (5 6) is one of those 'over the board' discards that he actually values quite a bit lower than almost all of the charts or tables. You might even find a chart that pegs Toss (5 6) as hight as Eight Points, but RAS places it a lot closer to Seven Points. Would this then encourage him to risk it here? I'm going to guess "No," but it's just a guess.
MiketheExpert says: I haven't logged into E-Crib in quite some time, but I confess that based on my history of games there, it might seem quite a bit more palatable in these circumstances than in a real life tournament game. That is why I worry about bad habits developing because of unrealistic expectations based on those online experiences, and then it takes doubly as long to kick that bad habit when it rears its ugly head! :-)
wasa
2224 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 9:53 AM
As others, debated the 5-6 vs the 8-10. Since a 5 in a crib is at least 2 points, keeping 8 minus a sure 2 = 6 vs keeping a sure 6 is going to be close. Since Schell has the toss of 5-6 to opponent's crib of 7.47 (wow) which is the 4th worse (after 5-5, J-5, 7-8) I think discretion is the better part of valour.
fentesk
400 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Friday 9:57 AM
I don't like the idea of tossing 5-6 here to gain 2 points of starting hand score over 5-6-9-9. 8-9-9-10 also looks like it will peg poorly for me, and many of the cuts that help 8-9-9-10 also help the 5-6 crib.

I'll toss the 8-10, lead a 9, and look for some points in pegging.
jmudge
324 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Friday 10:19 AM
Went for the run this morning. Or this afternoon. What time is it?
Coeurdelion
4801 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 12:32 PM
I think it's between 8-9-9-10 (5-6) and 5-6-9-9 (8-10):

8-9-9-10: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.47) = +½pt

5-6-9-9 : 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = +1¼pt

Potential:
8-9-9-10: Improves with 555, 666, 7777, 888, 99, 101010, JJJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/15/16pts with 666, 7777, 888, 99, 101010 = 15 cuts.

5-6-9-9: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 9/11/12pts with 4444, 666, 7777, 99 = 13 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to reach positional hole at 18pts.

Pegging:

I think 5-6-9-9 is likely to peg slightly better playing Offense.

Summary:

5-6-9-9 is better for starting value by ¾pt. and has more cuts for improvement although only 13 cuts for 9-12pts as opposed to 15 cuts for 12-16pts. Even so I'll select the 8-10 which as we hold two 9s will score even lower in opponent's crib due to the negative delta.
HalscribCLX
4531 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 12:36 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-6-9-9_____8.48+1.48+(-4.26)=5.70____27.6____26.6
8-9-9-10___10.26+1.26+(-7.35)=4.17____31.1____23.6

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-6-9-9_______36.6____48.2
8-9-9-10______44.9____52.6

5-6-9-9 is better for expected averages by 1.53pts and although 8-9-9-10 is very slightly better for Win %s it is very much worse for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-10 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
9_____________________1.86
5_____________________1.50
6_____________________0.95