May 10, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
115-113*  ?
50%
14%
10%
8%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 246
james500
3227 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:08 AM
The extra point the Jack might bring could be crucial at this end of the board, but there are quite a few cuts for 6+ with A-3-4-7, so I'll risk it.
Goatman
1977 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Tuesday 3:09 AM
Goatman
1977 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Tuesday 3:10 AM
Goatman says: Like the 334 together. After the cut no worries.
JQT says: When it's difficult to determine just how much we might peg, and therefore how many Cuts may help a given hand produce a WINNER, sometimes it is simply easier to count the LOSERS. After Keep (3 3 4 J) and Toss (A 7), we see that we get No Help from any 6 Card or 7 Card that is NOT a Spade Suit, and No Help from any Ten Card (or "X") unless it's a Jack or a Spade Suit. This means that we have 13 Loser Cuts, which are those non-Spade-Suited Cards (66, 77, TTT, QQQ, KKK). While several hands are even WORSE than this, we can see that four hands are actually better: Keep (A 4 7 J) has 9 Loser Cuts (222, 666, 999); Keep (A 3 4 7) has 8 Loser Cuts (6666, 9999); Keep (A 3 4 J) has 6 Loser Cuts (666, 999); and Keep (A 3 3 4) has just 4 Loser Cuts (6666).
JQT
3455 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:46 AM
As Pone, needing Six Points to WIN, with the Dealer sitting Eight Holes away from VICTORY, we pick up the "Nothing Burger" Hand.

If we squint our eyes, we can see that there's a (15-2) in there, as well as a PAIR, but no way to hold BOTH, and thus, it looks like we are going to begin with a 'static' Two Points today.

Right off the bat, we see that Keep (A 3 3 4) is a superb pegging hand! If we "miss" getting our Cut Card today, this hand should out-peg them all! Let's examine the individual ideas:

If we Keep (3 3 4 7) and Toss (A J), we hold Two Points, with a chance for Twenty Cuts (AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 8888) to net us at least Five Points or more, after which we might still have to peg One Hole. And after Toss (A J), we have Nineteen LOSER Cuts (6666, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), or cuts that add Zero Points.

If we Keep (A 3 4 7) and Toss (3 J), we hold Two Points, with a chance for Twenty-Three Cuts (AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888) to net us at least Five Points or more, after which we might still have to peg One Hole. And after Toss (3 J), we have Eight LOSER Cuts (6666, 9999), or cuts that add Zero Points.

If, however, we Keep (A 3 4 Js) and Toss (3 7), we hold the ubiquitous Two Points, with a chance for Twenty-Three Cuts (AAA, 2222, 3s, 444, 5555, 7s, 8s, Ts, JJJ, Qs, Ks) to net us at least Five Points or more, after which we might still have to peg One Hole. And after Toss (3 7), we have Seven LOSER Cuts (666, 9999), or cuts that add Zero Points. Note that the one 6 Card, the 6s, does indeed help us.

Notice how much that Jack helps add one precious extra point after we cut any of six Spade Suits, namely (3s, 7s, 8s, Ts, Qs, Ks)! Since we were dealt no other Spade Suits other than the Jack, this boosts the power of that Jack! This may be enough to *clinch* the decision for me today, so should we Toss (3 7) and get on with it? But Wait: we *still* have Seven LOSER Cuts, after which we shall need to peg Four Holes!

If we Keep (A 3 3 4) and Toss (7 J), we hold Two Points, with a chance for Twenty Cuts (2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888) to net us at least Five Points or more, after which we might still have to peg One Hole. However, not only is this a stellar Pegging Hand, but it does extremely well if we also examine how many cuts add ANY points whatsoever, or Forty-Two Cuts (AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888, 9999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK). Thus, we have only Four LOSER Cuts (6666)!

We kind of sensed it right from the start: Keep (A 3 3 4) is not only our best Pegging Hand, but it has the fewest LOSER Cuts as well, and therefore let's Toss (7 J). We really hate to see Mr. Knave Jack go, but we did our homework, and so, See Ya!

After the 8 Card Cut, we now hold Six Points, and we do not need to peg anything in order to WIN. Hopefully we can negotiate our way through the pegging without giving up Six Holes or more. Let's lead a Trey from our PAIR.
JQT says: We know that when we hold six unique cards, the number of Discard Choices in Cribbage is always "6 choose 2" or 15. But unless a FLUSH is present, if we include even one PAIR among those six cards, then the duplicates means that we have just 11 unique Discard Choices in total. Of these 11 Discard Choices we have today, only three of them have fewer than 9 Loser Cuts, and these are: Keep (A 3 3 4) with only 4 Loser Cuts (6666), Keep (A 3 4 7) with only 8 Loser Cuts (6666, 9999), and Keep (A 3 4 J) with only 7 Loser Cuts (666, 9999), since one of those potential 6 Cards will be a Spade Suit. In fact, some initially-good-looking ideas such as Keep (3 3 4 7) has a stunning 19 Loser Cuts (6666, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), while even worse is Keep (A 3 3 7) with a shocking 23 Loser Cuts (6666, 9999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK)!
JQT says: That last clause of the final sentence is not quite accurate, and should say: Keep (A 3 3 7) which also has 19 Loser Cuts (6666, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK)!
wasa says: Of course, in your analysis of A-3-4-J, you state that there are seven loser cuts (as the 6s helps). But, the 9s also helps as much as the 6s. So, by your definition of loser cut (zero points), there are only 6 cuts that add zero points. However, if a 6s or 9s were cut, then we go from 2 points to 3 points, still needing to peg 3 as non-dealer. I'm sure RAS will tell us what are the odds of non-dealer pegging 3 points (less than 40% I'm guessing)
JQT says: Yes, I miscounted that instance, and also one (which I corrected in my reply to Goatman, above). And of course, the fewest LOSERS (or most WINNERS) doesn't necessarily and/or automatically mean that our work is done, and that we've found the best hand! But when we are Pone needing Six Points in order to WIN, and when we can ONLY begin with a 'static' Two Points, those "extreme" cases can give us a wealth of information. A "pretty-looking" hand such as Keep (3 3 4 7) has a stunning 19 Loser Cuts (6666, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which means that 19 DIV 46 equals 0.413 or about 41% of the time, we'll be needing to peg Four Holes! If we compare this with Keep (A 3 3 4) which only has 4 Loser Cuts (6666), we see that here we shall only have to endure that same pegging burden less than 9% of the time.
Gougie00
5013 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 4:04 AM
The cribbage fairy loves me again. Lead a 3. No need to peg.
Ras2829
4461 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Playing bold offense, hold the four cards with greater pegging potential. After the starter can knowing n/d has 8 points, pegging is academic. Now it is to avoid pegs. Lead the 3C, play off if possible as the count advances. Give up that lone Ace, second card played although it seems reasonably safe among all these small cards. A good practice in any scenario.
Fender Bass
327 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Tuesday 4:54 AM
Jazzselke
2076 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:16 AM
Considered holding the 334 together, but this hold brings the facecards into play, and should offer the best pegging opportunities if we miss the cut.
usacoder
930 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 5:39 AM
There are a lot of ways to crib this hand for a win. Some cribs would have to force making enough points during the play stage for success.

The 8H show card guarantees it.
wasa
2344 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 5:48 AM
This was too hard for me so I cheated. Checked C. Liam Brown, whose math says that A-3-4-7 has a 50% chance to cut for 6 (or more) points. As I have mentioned many time, I do not peg well so I need to go for the points. And with the cut, I have my points! Yay me!
JQT says: While Keep (A 3 4 7) has 8 Loser Cuts (6666, 9999) and Keep (A 3 4 J) has only 7 Loser Cuts (666, 9999) due to the presence of the Jack, the former hand should peg better, and is therefore probably the second-best choice overall today, behind Keep (A 3 3 4). And, if you are not too confident in the pegging (as wasa indicated), that makes this an excellent choice!
Sally3
199 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Tuesday 6:41 AM
Small cards to peg with, and most cuts help.
Andy (muesli64)
2112 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 6:54 AM
I don't have any other choice?
Eolus619
647 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 6:57 AM
My two keep choices both get cut help from the same numbered cards..only a six won’t work. BUT A-3-3-4 also gets cut help from the T/Fs. The most important card in cribbage saves the day.
Inushtuk1
874 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 7:06 AM
The Buttler did it, and the best peggerwith a 4-card 11 to boot.
JQT says: Speaking of Pegging . . . Twenty-Nine to WIN: Today I had an interesting endgame on my Original iPad with WildCard Games Ultimate Cribbage, which I play in Single Player mode. I cannot recommend this program as a learning tool, but it's fun to "beat up upon" when bored. On the "Expert" setting, I have a record of 594 Wins out of 903 Games or about a 65.8% Winning Rate, with 127 Skunks and 1 Double Skunk to my credit, and 32 Lost Skunks and Zero Lost Double Skunks. Anyway, picture this: I am the Dealer at (92*-114) and I pick up (A A 6 7 8 Q) and so I Toss (A Q). The Cut Card is a 7 of Clubs. Pegging proceeds: 7 (7) 7! (14=2) 6? (20) 8 (28=3) 2 (30) A (31=2), J (10) 6 (16=1) and so I out-peg Pone Eight-to-Zero! Now the score is (100*-114). Pone had Keep (2 6 7 Jd) and Toss (4 T), so with Six Points, the score now shows: (100*-120). My Hand (A 6 7 8) with a 7 Card Cut is Sixteen Points, and the Crib is (A 4 T Q) or Four Points, so now the score is (120*-120)! Come the next deal, I began with (3 4 6 8 T Q) and tried Toss (T Q) and after a Queen Cut, I led the 4 Card, it was PAIRED, and I LOST. The Dealer had Keep (2 3 4 J) and Toss (A K). But I could have lost much sooner had I given up, and not retained the Ace in the original hand as the Dealer, and had I not pegged so well. Luckily, the Opponent had the 'wrong' Jack Suit during that first hand, for had it been a Club Suit, just scoring Nobs would have defeated me much sooner. The important Cribbage Lesson that can be learned here is that sometimes, we just need to beat up on somebody. 10 May 2022 - j q t -
jmudge
396 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Tuesday 7:52 AM
Math confuses me, which is why I was a little surprised to see the results today. :)
bbaer1
3038 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Tuesday 11:36 AM
Classic Buttler!
bbaer1 says: Although I got it wrong…
dec says: Close on that, two maybe even one more point down I would consider that one. dec
dec
5633 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 12:13 PM
Pegging cards in case we get zero (6) or only two (A,10, J, Q, K). Now I learn what is better my three lead or perhaps the four. dec
JQT says: Great Question! Once we get a helpful Cut Card, and don't need to peg, we still want to minimize the Dealer pegging. When we do want or need to peg just a few points, we often lead from a PAIR just in order to maximize the variety of what remains in our hand. And yet I believe it's a mistake to simply 'unravel this logic' and then somehow believe that when we do NOT wish to peg, that we ought to do otherwise, and lead from either the higher or the lower "end" of the hand. I still think it is best to lead a Trey from our PAIR, even when what we wish to do is MINIMIZE the Dealer pegging. If we lead from one of the higher or lower "ends" of our tightly-clustered hand, it's easier for the Dealer to force or 'corner' us into constructing a RUN, and under some circumstances, our best percentage play might be to PAIR a Dealer's Trey, allowing the Dealer to obtain PAIRS Royal. If this is all that occurs, we may indeed peg our FIRST, but since the Dealer only needs Eight Points in order to defeat us, this could happen if the Dealer either Cuts a Jack, or maybe gets an earlier (15=2) or PAIR, and it would be tragic to then succumb to a PAIRS Royal that brings the Dealer over the Finish Line when in fact we're left holding the Case Trey for another Dozen Points for Double PAIRS Royal, a play we never get to execute! In summary: When holding Keep (A 3 3 4) and after an 8 Card Cut, I think it's safest to lead a Trey from our PAIR today.
Coeurdelion
4919 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 12:31 PM
We need to score 6pts, hand plus pegging. The most we can hold is 2pts so I think it will be between:

A-3-4-7 which has AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 23 cuts for 6pts or more.

A-3-4-J which has AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, JJJ = 17 cuts for 6pts or more.

A-3-3-4 which has 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts for 6pts or more


So A-3-4-7 has more cuts for 6pts or more and I think will peg better with 3 low cards and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven. A-3-3-4 also will peg well with a 4 card magic eleven and every other cut bar the 6 will score 4pts and therefore I think it will be a strong contender but even so I'll throw a 3-J.
HalscribCLX
4650 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 12:34 PM
At 115-113* playing A BOLD strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %s, Win %s and Loss %s are:

Bold____________Our Peg Out %____Win %____Loss %
A-3-3-4_____________16.9_________86.7______13.3
A-3-4-7______________5.4_________83.2______16.8
A-3-4-J______________8.2_________81.6______18.4

A-3-3-4 has the best chance of Winning and very much the best chance of pegging out. So I'll 7-J to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3______________________(-2.43)
A______________________(-2.48)
4______________________(-2.56)
MiketheExpert
419 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 1:52 PM
Only the 6 cuts do not improve our hand to at least 4 pts, and I will hope to peg the remainder with my best pegging hand (A 3 3 4). Fully in agreement with Halscrib on this day.
MiketheExpert says: I should say only the 4 cuts of (6666) ;)
MiketheExpert says: Still have to be cautious on the pegging once knowing we have enough pts after the 8 is cut. Lead the 3 and play off if possible, try to get rid of the ace on next card played.
winesteward48
198 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 2:12 PM
I am in the extreme minority with this selection. But, I liked the the various cut cards to put me out and the Pegging or defensive pegging this hand could be.
Samgash33
77 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 2:32 PM
Pegs ahoy