May 24, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114*-115  ?
Total votes: 244
Andy (muesli64)Dealer made it
2061 votes

Joined: March 2017

Tuesday 3:04 AM
Thinking I may have to peg out for the win. However I’ll not go that direction. Hoping I can learn something here. Nice puzzle Andy.
3488 votes

Joined: October 2008

Tuesday 3:08 AM
This is criminal. We are likely to score Seven Points regardless of what we discard here, but we're very unlikely to ever survive long enough to tally any of it! Are?! You?! Kidding?! Me?? I'm afraid not.

As the Dealer at Hole 114 needing Seven Points to WIN, it is actually Pone's Position at Hole 115 that governs everything we do today in order to attempt to WIN. And "everything we do" probably includes pulling our hair out.

Pone tends to average scoring about Ten Points, and Pone should tally Six Points (or more) a vast portion of the time. In fact, holding Pone to Five Points or less carries with it the odds of about eight-and-one-half-to-one against (DeLynn Colvert: "Play Winning Cribbage")!

We really want to know how the odds of us hypothetically Pegging Seven Holes as the Dealer compares to this. And while I am a bit uncertain as to the likelihood of this ever occurring, I do know that, since we were dealt no Jacks, the odds that the Cut Card shall be a Jack are nearly 9%.

And we also know that as the Dealer, we shall tend to peg about 3.5 Holes on average. This means that: having been dealt No Jacks, 9% (Jack Cut) of 50% (Average Pegging is 3.5) of the time (or about 4.5% of the time overall), we can rely upon traveling about . . . Drum Roll Please . . . 5.5 Holes via our pegging as the Dealer. And yet we need Seven Holes to WIN. We're in trouble!

Which is sad. Because, we do have some excellent pegging hands that can be derived from this teasing, almost tortuous arrangement. Specifically, Keep (A A 5 8) looks very good, as does Keep (A A 4 5). Either of these might easily peg Four Holes on a good day. Keep (A A 2 8) or Keep (A A 2 5) also look very powerful. But to squeeze Seven Holes Pegged out of any of these is dreaming!

We really do need one of three things to happen in order to WIN: Either Pone has to stumble very badly and pick up an atrocious hand, or; we need to Cut a Jack and peg like there's no tomorrow, or; our Opponent needs to have a sudden medical problem! I'm never one to 'throw in the proverbial towel' and say, "It's Hopeless!" But if this were a boxing match, someone would soon have to stop it!

In a fit of desperation, I'll Toss (2 4). And after the very disappointing Trey Cut, I'm about to throw something! Probably the game itself. If Pone leads a Ten (or "X") Card, we can "jump" on it and score (15=2).

But our hopes are simply very dim here at best. I'm thinking it might be better to reply with our 8 Card instead, and try to 'trap" a Lone Ace and then look to score (31=8) in one-fell-swoop! It's nice to dream.
MiketheExpert says: HI JQT. I agree, I think I would rather play the 8 over a face than score a probably meaningless 15-2 for which pone is more likely to have a scoring response, as well increase the % chance of having an A trap work with our pair.
JQT says: Yes, and perhaps save (and savor) the 5 Card for Last (whether we need it or NOT) . . . to wit: (114*-115) (Ad Ac 2d 4h 5c 8s) Cut = 3s by Andy (muesli64) May 24, 2022 "Hand of the Day" . . . so maybe, say against the 'likes' of Pone (A A 9 T), where *ZOUNDS* we can WIN (and Pone never gets to employ the 'Case Ace' against us) after: T (10) 8! (18) 9 (27-3) A (28) A (29-2) A (30=7), and POOF, suddenly it's 'Gamis Interruptus' for a Final Score of (121*-120)! . . . or maybe, say against the 'likes' of Pone (T Jh Q K), where *DOUBLE ZOUNDS* we WIN after: K (10) 8! (18) Q (28) A (29) 'go' A (30=3), T (10) 5 (15=2) J (25-1), we can 'catch' an "X" Card Lead the second-time-around for a crucial Fifteen-Two, while only giving back One Point for Last Card, with the End-of-Pegging Score (119*-116), and now: Pone Hand is only Four Points (notice the Wrong Jack!), and thus all we need is Two Points between Hand and Crib, therefore: once again, GAME OVER, we WIN (121*-120)! Note that it is very difficult to concoct a scenario in which our 5 Card can WIN for us by the actual points we might derive from any (15=2), but it may in fact help us prevail if we do NOT (at least immediately) grab such points!
3260 votes

Joined: June 2013

Tuesday 3:12 AM
Pegging seven holes is a tall order, might it be better to play off and hope they have a low value hand?

842A is tempting, but I like the strength in numbers of holding a pair, as it gives me two safer cards to peg with. Maybe even, Pone does have another Ace, and once the count gets high enough I can score n/6 plus a go?
5045 votes

Joined: March 2008

Tuesday 3:33 AM
7 out means I gotta peg. Suicidal to play into runs at this stage, but that's the plan.
155 votes

Joined: December 2021

Tuesday 3:59 AM
RedTailRogue says: My gamble paid off. Also, I like getting rid of higher cards this close to the end. 5 8 in box can't hurt.
5665 votes

Joined: April 2008

Tuesday 4:07 AM
Peg seven hard to get seven/eight on Aces. So, I went with two sets of eleven and try to limit them to zero pegs. dec
1135 votes

Joined: February 2009

Tuesday 4:35 AM
Very difficult to win this one. I was going to hold the “triple 5” hand (A-A-4-5), but opted for this hold. I like the two aces for outside chance of trapping a lone ace. I like the 5 as it’s a powerful pegging card as dealer, and the 8 gives us some flexibility in case pone is dealt a “stinker”. Nice puzzle Andy.
452 votes

Joined: April 2021

Tuesday 5:32 AM
I am tempted to think it probably doesn't matter, but as we know this is not true, because there is quite a percentage of the time where pone cannot make it out from 6 holes away. I think it is much more likely than being able to peg 7 holes and get out from this position, but to have any chance at that we will need to keep both our A's and hope to trap an A. In order to do that, we'll probably need to keep at least 1 high card in order to advance the count, and our highest card is the 8. Thus, (A A 5 8) it is. The good thing about this keep is it may be the best combo for keeping BOTH winning opportunities intact, although the odds are still quite slim to win this.
MiketheExpert says: When I say "quite a percentage of the time above", I am taking the optimist's point of view, as I consider anything that may happen higher than 10% a little better than a prayer when it comes to situations like this :)
991 votes

Joined: February 2009

Tuesday 5:34 AM
Nice puzzle Andy-7 out is a little too far for the aces having great value here-it’s pretty unlikely the pone has an ace( since we have 2) or that he will keep it to be trapped later on in the pegging series-the best bet is to keep the hand with the maximum pegging flexibility of the 2-4/5/8
JQT says: Yes, Andy posts good puzzles! Half way through the day, not just 11 of the unique discards have been voted upon (due to the PAIR), but indeed all fifteen possible discards of "6 choose 2" have been picked by someone! That's the mark of a great puzzle!
2376 votes

Joined: November 2014

Tuesday 5:57 AM
Hope to learn something today. I don't think I can peg out so will keep my fingers crossed my opponent has a 2 or 4 point hand. Play off and don't peg anything
Fender Bass
363 votes

Joined: July 2021

Tuesday 6:03 AM
Wow, I hope this means I'm learning. I didn't expect this to be the top hand.
427 votes

Joined: July 2020

Tuesday 6:44 AM
Took the approach of dec this morning.
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

Tuesday 7:10 AM
and you must have caught the JQT end game puzzle bug. h I think my best strategy is to light a candle and pray to Saint Jude. My second best strategy is to try to limit Pone’s pegging to zero. So keep the pair and spread out the renaming cards. And btw…I will look even more inept if by chance Pone does not count out and I am not holding enough total points to go out myself. Only a trey & 4 cut don’t help.
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

Tuesday 7:14 AM
the editor finally arrives …1)the first And should be Andy 2) the hanging H needs to come out 3) renaming should be remaining
4493 votes

Joined: November 2008

Tuesday 9:35 AM
Needing to limit n/d to no more than five points indicates defense and peg avoidance. N/d will fail to score six points about 10 of 100. DeLynn Colvert indicates that limiting non-dealer to five points is 8 1/2 - 1 against doing so. The best four cards among these for peg avoidance are A-2-5-8 and am not willing to hold those. So will do as others have suggested and held the pair of Aces. Want to drop the 8 on the opening lead. Don't want a 6 or 7 lead for sure as would have to split the Aces on first card played. Have a plan and stick to it unless forced to alter.
101 votes

Joined: December 2017

Tuesday 11:58 AM
Interesting situation and hand. Defense is great. But trapping a single ace gives a shot at pegging out, so keeping both A’s.
4951 votes

Joined: October 2007

Tuesday 3:19 PM
It's unlikely that Pone will peg and hold less than 6pts so I think we need to try and peg 7pts. With a pair of As and a 2 it's possible so I'll keep the higher card with it and throw the 4-5 to my crib.
4677 votes

Joined: February 2008

Tuesday 3:27 PM
At 114*-115 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Optimal_______Win %___Loss %__Peg Out %__Peg Out %

A-A-5-8 is best for Win %s and lowest for chances of Pone pegging out so I'll select 2-4 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.