Tuesday 3:04 AM

Thinking I may have to peg out for the win. However I’ll not go that direction. Hoping I can learn something here. Nice puzzle Andy.

   

Tuesday 3:08 AM

This is criminal. We are likely to score Seven Points regardless of what we discard here, but we're very unlikely to ever survive long enough to tally any of it! Are?! You?! Kidding?! Me?? I'm afraid not.

As the Dealer at Hole 114 needing Seven Points to WIN, it is actually Pone's Position at Hole 115 that governs everything we do today in order to attempt to WIN. And "everything we do" probably includes pulling our hair out.

Pone tends to average scoring about Ten Points, and Pone should tally Six Points (or more) a vast portion of the time. In fact, holding Pone to Five Points or less carries with it the odds of about eight-and-one-half-to-one against (DeLynn Colvert: "Play Winning Cribbage")!

We really want to know how the odds of us hypothetically Pegging Seven Holes as the Dealer compares to this. And while I am a bit uncertain as to the likelihood of this ever occurring, I do know that, since we were dealt no Jacks, the odds that the Cut Card shall be a Jack are nearly 9%.

And we also know that as the Dealer, we shall tend to peg about 3.5 Holes on average. This means that: having been dealt No Jacks, 9% (Jack Cut) of 50% (Average Pegging is 3.5) of the time (or about 4.5% of the time overall), we can rely upon traveling about . . . Drum Roll Please . . . 5.5 Holes via our pegging as the Dealer. And yet we need Seven Holes to WIN. We're in trouble!

Which is sad. Because, we do have some excellent pegging hands that can be derived from this teasing, almost tortuous arrangement. Specifically, Keep (A A 5 8) looks very good, as does Keep (A A 4 5). Either of these might easily peg Four Holes on a good day. Keep (A A 2 8) or Keep (A A 2 5) also look very powerful. But to squeeze Seven Holes Pegged out of any of these is dreaming!

We really do need one of three things to happen in order to WIN: Either Pone has to stumble very badly and pick up an atrocious hand, or; we need to Cut a Jack and peg like there's no tomorrow, or; our Opponent needs to have a sudden medical problem! I'm never one to 'throw in the proverbial towel' and say, "It's Hopeless!" But if this were a boxing match, someone would soon have to stop it!

In a fit of desperation, I'll Toss (2 4). And after the very disappointing Trey Cut, I'm about to throw something! Probably the game itself. If Pone leads a Ten (or "X") Card, we can "jump" on it and score (15=2).

But our hopes are simply very dim here at best. I'm thinking it might be better to reply with our 8 Card instead, and try to 'trap" a Lone Ace and then look to score (31=8) in one-fell-swoop! It's nice to dream.

   

Tuesday 3:12 AM

Pegging seven holes is a tall order, might it be better to play off and hope they have a low value hand?

842A is tempting, but I like the strength in numbers of holding a pair, as it gives me two safer cards to peg with. Maybe even, Pone does have another Ace, and once the count gets high enough I can score n/6 plus a go?

   

Tuesday 3:33 AM

7 out means I gotta peg. Suicidal to play into runs at this stage, but that's the plan.

   

Tuesday 3:59 AM

   

Tuesday 4:07 AM

Peg seven hard to get seven/eight on Aces. So, I went with two sets of eleven and try to limit them to zero pegs. dec

   

Tuesday 4:35 AM

Very difficult to win this one. I was going to hold the “triple 5” hand (A-A-4-5), but opted for this hold. I like the two aces for outside chance of trapping a lone ace. I like the 5 as it’s a powerful pegging card as dealer, and the 8 gives us some flexibility in case pone is dealt a “stinker”. Nice puzzle Andy.

   

Tuesday 5:32 AM

I am tempted to think it probably doesn't matter, but as we know this is not true, because there is quite a percentage of the time where pone cannot make it out from 6 holes away. I think it is much more likely than being able to peg 7 holes and get out from this position, but to have any chance at that we will need to keep both our A's and hope to trap an A. In order to do that, we'll probably need to keep at least 1 high card in order to advance the count, and our highest card is the 8. Thus, (A A 5 8) it is. The good thing about this keep is it may be the best combo for keeping BOTH winning opportunities intact, although the odds are still quite slim to win this.

   

Tuesday 5:34 AM

Nice puzzle Andy-7 out is a little too far for the aces having great value here-it’s pretty unlikely the pone has an ace( since we have 2) or that he will keep it to be trapped later on in the pegging series-the best bet is to keep the hand with the maximum pegging flexibility of the 2-4/5/8

   

Tuesday 5:57 AM

Hope to learn something today. I don't think I can peg out so will keep my fingers crossed my opponent has a 2 or 4 point hand. Play off and don't peg anything

   

Tuesday 6:03 AM

Wow, I hope this means I'm learning. I didn't expect this to be the top hand.

   

Tuesday 6:44 AM

Took the approach of dec this morning.

   

Tuesday 7:10 AM

and you must have caught the JQT end game puzzle bug. h I think my best strategy is to light a candle and pray to Saint Jude. My second best strategy is to try to limit Pone’s pegging to zero. So keep the pair and spread out the renaming cards. And btw…I will look even more inept if by chance Pone does not count out and I am not holding enough total points to go out myself. Only a trey & 4 cut don’t help.

   

Tuesday 7:14 AM

the editor finally arrives …1)the first And should be Andy 2) the hanging H needs to come out 3) renaming should be remaining

   

Tuesday 9:35 AM

Needing to limit n/d to no more than five points indicates defense and peg avoidance. N/d will fail to score six points about 10 of 100. DeLynn Colvert indicates that limiting non-dealer to five points is 8 1/2 - 1 against doing so. The best four cards among these for peg avoidance are A-2-5-8 and am not willing to hold those. So will do as others have suggested and held the pair of Aces. Want to drop the 8 on the opening lead. Don't want a 6 or 7 lead for sure as would have to split the Aces on first card played. Have a plan and stick to it unless forced to alter.

   

Tuesday 11:58 AM

Interesting situation and hand. Defense is great. But trapping a single ace gives a shot at pegging out, so keeping both A’s.

   

Tuesday 3:19 PM

It's unlikely that Pone will peg and hold less than 6pts so I think we need to try and peg 7pts. With a pair of As and a 2 it's possible so I'll keep the higher card with it and throw the 4-5 to my crib.

   

Tuesday 3:27 PM

At 114*-115 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

_______________________________Pone________Dlr
Optimal_______Win %___Loss %__Peg Out %__Peg Out %
A-A-5-8_______12.8_____87.2_____0.0________0.0
A-A-2-8_______11.3_____88.7_____1.1________0.0
A-A-4-8_______10.7_____89.3_____1.1________0.0
A-A-2-5_______10.7_____89.3_____1.5________0.0

A-A-5-8 is best for Win %s and lowest for chances of Pone pegging out so I'll select 2-4 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.