June 23, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
37-32*  ?
40%
33%
22%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 237
James500Taken from here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Cribbage/comments/ur6u5d/what_would_you_keep_from_these/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
JQT
3488 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:00 AM
Today we are in a relatively close game on Second Street as Pone, with a choice between a FLUSH Keep (Ac 5c 7c 9c) and Toss (2 6) that begins with Six Points, and a RUN or Keep (2 5 6 7) and Toss (A 9) that begins with Five Points.

Sometimes, we get the "Double RUN Hypnosis" even when we don't yet have the Double Run! We see what we think we like, and don't do our homework. Let's not skip the homework.

It's difficult to see how the RUN can 'make up' for the Full Point difference. And Toss (2 6) unleashes less than a half-point more to the Enemy Crib. The math, at least prior to the Cut Card, is on the side of the FLUSH today. Only Three Cuts (444), a 4 Card Cut that isn't a Club Suit, won't help the FLUSH today.

Even after Sixteen Cuts (222, 555, 666, 777, 8888), the RUN only gets boosted to Ten or Twelve Points, while the FLUSH may result in Ten Points (or more) after Nineteen Cuts (AAA, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999). Say what?! It's called, doing the homework!

Without looking at any cards, hypothetically, if I told you: as Pone, would you like a discard that enables you to start with an extra point, and have more chances to get a larger hand; or, do you prefer starting off with less, and fewer prospects for growth, you'd probably say that it's not even up for debate.

But when many players see a RUN, they stop thinking. And then, the most difficult thing about Cribbage often takes place: a player gets either a Double RUN or a very helpful Cut Card, and never realizes they had even better odds without holding onto the RUN! And this lack of awareness goes on, frequently for decades.

In this cruel manner, Cribbage will seldom reveal our mistakes, and may sometimes even give us a great big dose of positive reinforcement for pursuing the wrong discarding or pegging choice! This can go on without a player even realizing it for an entire lifetime.

When anyone asks what makes Cribbage so difficult to master, this is one of the things I would put right at the very top of the list: Cribbage is not a self-correcting game, i.e., it's usually not going to show you where you messed up, not unless you do a meaningful amount of additional work.

Playing more Cribbage will only make your playing strength increase 'just so much'; at a certain level, bad habits become endemic, and entrenched. In this sense, Cribbage is a lot like Chess. Hopefully, before this behavior occurs, one realizes that Cribbage MUST be studied independently of simply playing the game! Learning only by playing does eventually happen, but it's a very rough road.

Let's retain the FLUSH today and Toss (2 6). After the Deuce Cut, it looks like we goofed! We do have Eight Points, and while the 7 Card is typically the go-to lead here, I believe the Ace makes an interesting Lead Card today as well. Pick your poison!

It certainly looks as though we're being punished, in spite of our good behavior, but we must 'chalk it up' to experience. Cribbage will also very often punish us when we do the right thing. When it's not completely agonizing and full of despair, isn't Cribbage a splendid game?
scottcrib says: Very well stated!
JQT says: It's a bit of a 'harsh' lesson, given the closeness of these two discards today. Players who have been here a while know that I often 'recycle' portions of my text and use them again when I think it may offer something worthy. While I am often the first to say don't fret a few tenths of a point difference, today we might however be debating over a full point. But as some have wisely mentioned, pegging style can often gain or lose a much greater amount, and what the FLUSH gains in Hand score might be somewhat offset by the more defensive nature of the resultant pegging. If a player has studied these two discards, and is more comfortable pegging with the RUN, then it's really up to us "FLUSHERS" to prove that our choice is actually better. And the beauty of Cribbage is that it may still be an open question! This "thrashing" of ideas is also very common, especially in Chess, as computers take the intensity of study deeper and deeper.
Gougie00
5045 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:13 AM
The other Raggedy Andy. I went wide just because A2 often find a 2-3 in the crib waiting for them. Mediocre position but with these cards you have to try to peg a little. Lead the 2 and hope the Cribbage Fairy favors you.

It hasnt hit 90 yet in Massachusetts. Somewhere is getting all of our heat.
scottcrib says: It's been over 100 all week here in north Florida.
JQT says: The official temperature at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport (BUF) has never been higher than 99 deg F, but I predict the record shall be broken this summer.
mrob2199
991 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:17 AM
Like the well disguised flush here-the 2-6 discard should be extra safe with the negative delta of the 7 and 9 in our hand-any picture cut will give us 1 extra point than the 2567 hold-lead the A and proceed cautiously
dec
5665 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:46 AM
This is an example of a defensive flush. Utilize it we have a small lead here. dec
usacoder
956 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 3:56 AM
Flush it. The 2-6 toss averages 7.39. The A-9 toss is close with an average of 7.19.
mfetchCT425
1135 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 5:11 AM
Flush was close for me, but I liked the touching cards here with a good chance to get us 10-12 points. Every cut helps and A-9 is a top 15 defensive toss which also has some negative delta with us holding a 5 and 6.
fentesk
552 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 5:11 AM
Keeping the flush, though the 2-5-6-7 (A-9) improves with any cut, which I have a soft spot for.
farleysma
68 votes

Joined: March 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 5:28 AM
I’m partial to keeping the run over the flush. The hand is bolstered no matter the cut, and I see the flush hand as slightly too defensive for this board position.
james500
3260 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 5:33 AM
Received this hand on Cribbage JD. Submitted it to the Reddit forum, (see link), for discussion. Wondered what those on here would make of it.
scottcrib says: I think it's an excellent submission James.
dph says: I'm consistent anyway: held the same cards (2,5,6,7) today that I held in the reddit discussion.
james500 says: Hi both, hope all's well. Thanks for the kind words Scott. I think I held the flush originally, but have tried something different here.
Sally3
221 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 6:01 AM
I vacillated. The negative delta, plus the possibility of 5's in her crib tipped me to the flush.
MiketheExpert
452 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 6:15 AM
It pays to flush today. Keeping the solid 6-pt hold which gets help from 12/13 ranks (all except a 4 cut) at least gets me to minimum 2nd street CPZ at the beginning of next deal (43-47). The (2 6), though not the safest of all crib tosses does offer a bit of extra safety (negative delta) with your 7 in hand. And though sometimes a lone ace may be a pegging liability, I think this flush is well disguised, and I like my chances of adding on a few more with the "7" lead in this case, as many scoring responses are covered. With the 2 cut increasing my hold to 8 pts, I think any lead except the 5 could be considered, but I'll go ahead with my plan of leading the 7, keeping a wide distribution of cards and a good deal of flexibility with my continuance here.
bbaer1 says: So that would be 12.25/13 cuts!
Fender Bass
363 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 6:35 AM
I hold a lot of flushes plus 6/2 is a good toss to opp's crib.
wasa
2376 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 6:53 AM
When in doubt, flush. It pays to flush. Cut probably helps everyone today....
MiketheExpert says: Yes..I'd say it helps the people who kept the run more (giving them an 11-pt hold), with a nicer throw into the crib of (A 9), so if I had prior knowledge of the cut, certainly would've changed my choice...!
wasa says: Cribbage would sure be a different game if we knew the cut card before hand... maybe I should make a new game called UltimateCrib where we DO get to see the cut card before discarding. Interesting concept. Would decrease the reliance on luck and increase the reliance on skill. As an aside, playing 3-handed crib has a totally different dynamic and much of the knowledge of regular 2-handed cribbage is not used for 3-handed cribbage. I should do an internet search to find tips and tricks for 3-handed crib (which I play with the kids at times....)
MiketheExpert says: I think it could still make for an interesting form of cribbage, i.e. you had rotating cut cards, knowing the rank and suit of this common card for each successive hand...The only luck factor then is the random deal of both player's hand, and that you don't know what cards each player is holding. Now there is always a "BEST" known discard, whether be your crib or the opponent's at every board position, and the REAL emphasis becomes on the skill in pegging and knowing what cards the other one is more LIKELY to hold given both player's knowledge of the cut card. So instead of 2/3 skill to 1/3 luck, now it probably becomes more than 4/5 skill to less than 1/5 luck, imo.
JQT says: Cribbage should have a Doubling Cube, like Backgammon, but I digress. Chess is a game with "Perfect Information" in that both players, as well as any onlooker, gets to know all the information, and nothing is ever hidden. Backgammon, Cribbage, and Poker all have some element or percentage of luck involved as a component, as they all contain a "random" device (dice or cards). Bingo or the Lottery are games that entail 100% luck, and thus require no skill whatsoever. Trying to quantify how the aspect of skill affects the results in any game that is not 100% luck is an interesting endeavor, because if you play one game of Chess, you get a fairly clear idea of who is stronger. Ten games is almost always conclusive in Chess. Backgammon and Cribbage might require a few dozen games head-to-head to discern who is the stronger player. Bingo is a coin flip with as many "sides" as there are players. And the Lottery is like flipping a coin with a million "sides." What I find even more interesting are the social aspects of the various games. I doubt thousands of people throughout the country would travel to Reno to play Bingo. Chess has a rich history going back several centuries, and games from nearly two hundred years ago are still played over with delight. Cribbage is over four hundred years old, but few players save any games, and in fact the best player who ever lived, DeLynn Colvert, died a few years ago, and we only have a few dozen of his lifetime of games, which is a travesty. Nobody has ever saved a game of Bingo, but people have been known to toss away "winning" Lottery tickets!
bbaer1 says: 3-way cribbage is the worst form of cribbage. I avoid it like the plague. It takes away traps, potential runs, etc. Too much of our great game is lost unless you just enjoy tossing cards around.
bbaer1 says: Now a three-game round of “Captain” I would enjoy!
Jazzselke
2102 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 7:02 AM
We would like to get to Hole 46, 2567 improves on any cut, and A9 good defensive throw to the dealer. Close call vs the flush.
Ras2829
4493 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 10:24 AM
It pays to flush this day and this club collage has more than a full-point edge compared to the next best choice 2-5-6-7 is worth collection of clubs. Like JQT has indicated, most often we are looking at differences measured by tenths of a point (sometimes even hundredths). Needing to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47) for upcoming deal, am choosing offense to include the pegging, lead the deuce and take any pegs offered.
Ras2829 says: Sorry, don't have the deuce, lead the 7 and take any pegs offered.
Nelson
11 votes

Joined: June 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 12:14 PM
I thought about keeping the touching cards but like the ghost of Obi-Wan to Luke, I heard Ras's voice whisper "It pays to flush" so I am hoping to beat my opponent with a fist full of clubs. We have a little negative delta going for us with the 2-6 discard up and until the deck cut dealer a gift with the 2. "There's no crying in baseball" applies here, so I will lead the 7 and peg as aggressively as afforded me.
bbaer1
3073 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 4:14 PM
Generally getting a cut of suit will push a flush to the forefront, all things considered being equal. We need eight points to stay in position and got ‘em with the cut.