June 24, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
102*-110  ?
39%
35%
18%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 227
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:00 AM
Today we are the Dealer, sitting at Hole 102, which means we are Nineteen Points away from VICTORY.

Meanwhile, Pone sits at Hole 110, and needs just Eleven Points, or One Point above Pone Average, to deny us a WIN and beat us to the Finish Line.

We have absolutely no room for miscalculating this Relative Position today, and while we might deal Pone a winning Hand, or the Cut Card might conspire against us to deliver a WIN for Pone, we want to make sure we don't give it away!

We have three ways to retain the 3-4-5 RUN, and maybe a few other ways to split up this arrangement, such as Toss (5 J) or Toss (3 8). I frequently like to break up a RUN that either begins or ends with a 5 Card, but we should never do this gratuitously, or without good reason.

Holding onto the RUN gives us only slightly better prospects for the Hand, and might interfere with our defensive pegging, especially if we Keep (A 3 4 5) or Keep (3 4 5 8).

Thus, I believe we ought to compare Keep (3 4 5 J) and Toss (A 8) with Keep (A 3 4 8) and Toss (5 J) today, and maybe take a gander at Keep (A 4 5 J) and Toss (3 8).

After Toss (3 8), it looks like a "hybrid" solution in search of a problem, and I think we would be going astray if we do this.

If we Toss (5 J), we would possibly have a slightly better defensive pegging hand, but it's not clear how much safer. And one could even argue that in some respects, it's actually more dangerous!

Keep (3 4 5 J) and Toss (A 8) seems to be our best option. Let's Toss (A 8) before we over-think this thing!

After the 10h Cut Card, we now have Eight Points in our Hand, with prospects for a mediocre Crib.

We must still peg very defensively. The fact that we might come up 'short' on points means that we can peg opportunistically, but we must also be very careful.

It's somewhat likely that this game could continue to another deal, and we might have an excellent chance to secure the WIN with First Hand Show as the Next Non Dealer, although we should probably prepare to continue to peg ultra-defensively!

Today was 26-days-in-a-row on Wordle 370 4/6:

⬛🟨⬛⬛🟨
⬛⬛🟩⬛🟨
🟩🟨🟩⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

and it took Three Guesses on WordPlay:

WordPlay.com Score: 81 3/6

⬜🟩⬜🟨🟨
⬜🟩🟨🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Play the game: https://wordplay.com/shr/797998553

And I got: 3, 4, 5, 6 on Quordle:

Daily Quordle 151
6️⃣3️⃣
4️⃣5️⃣
quordle.com
🟨⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟩🟩🟩
⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜
🟩🟩🟩⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛

⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜🟩⬜⬜🟨 ⬜🟩🟩⬜🟨
⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Gougie00
5720 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:12 AM
The 3-4-5 is staying together. Question of whether A8 or AJ is going to the crib. I held the Jack just in case I need to jump out of trouble. The pone only needs 11, and he might be looking for 2 pegs. I'll try to stifle him.

Finally, after 23 days of cooler weather, New England gets the hot stuff today and over the weekend.
james500
3913 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:41 AM
With a 4 and a 5 out of circulation, but all the sixes and sevens still available, I reckon A-8 might fare better than A-J in the crib. Interested to see what A-3-4-8 (J-5) might bring though.
Eolus619 says: James500…fyi…if and when you decided to read all or a portion of Norm’s book…it is important that you understand his definition of what “in reach” and “non reach “ cards means..that can be found on page 42.
james500 says: Hi Bruce, hope your weekend will be a pleasant one. Thanks for the tip, I'll have to re-read that section of the book.
scottcrib
1626 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:01 AM
If the J was a diamond, then I would have kept the flush. Seeing no 6s or 7s, I'll toss A-8 to the crib.
dec
6347 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:07 AM
Today main hand potential and an out card on the pegging. Defense foremost. dec
mfetchCT425 says: Big cut for you on 4th street last night in game 3 of our match. Nicely done Dan. Sorry for the delays - my connection last night was not good. Hope to see you in Brookline.
jkelly1264 says: I have been reading and learning for several years from this web site, but know nothing about live play. mfetchCT425 mentioned a tournament in Brookline. If that is MA, can a person come and observe?
mrob2199 says: J Kelly that is Brookline New Hampshire-if you think you can play a game in about 15 minutes I would suggest trying it out and entering the tournament-pertinent info is on the American Cribbage Congress website-if you decided to go just give the tournament director a calll to let him know you would be attending-I will see you Sunday possibly lol
dec says: Yeah Mike got to love that six cut on 4-4-4-5 especially being eighteen out on first count unusually great cards last night. I will be in Brookline Mike, look up the info JKelley, nothing like live competitive tourney play. dec
jkelly1264 says: Thanks both of you. I will look it up, but cannot make this one.
mfetchCT425
1391 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:33 AM
Like the magic 11 and chance for a 14 hand or a bingo 4 cut.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Friday 4:59 AM
Likely we won't count the crib but I thought A/J seemed like a better toss.
JQT says: Counting our Crib is hugely important! If Pone does not score Eleven Points (combined Pegging plus Hand), then our chances of winning are good. In fact, since Pone needs One Point ABOVE average, the odds are above 50% that Pone shall come up 'short' of going out by completion of this deal. Since we are the Dealer at Hole 102, we would then need Nineteen Points to WIN this game. It is extremely unlikely that our Pegging plus our Hand would 'cover' those Nineteen Holes, and therefore, the odds that we shall tally our Crib are very high, and also its value is extremely important! Toss (A 8) is a little bit more valuable than Toss (A J), and leaves us a slightly safer Pegging Hand. An average Pegging plus Hand for us as the Dealer will be about Ten Points, and indeed, after the Cut Card today, we have Eight Points, and we will always peg One Point as the Dealer. Those Nine Points get us at least to Hole 111. Now, our Crib could very well put us in a position to WIN this game during the Next Deal! An average Crib is just under Five Points, and this means we should get at least to about Hole 116, but a better Crib might put us out immediately. And a very poor Crib means we would likely lose the game. But regardless of all this, our Crib is very likely to 'see the light of day' today and be counted!
Fender Bass says: Thanks for the comments J. Always interesting and informative,
horus93
1280 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 5:45 AM
Magic 11 + gapped cards.

5 and J are rarely dangerous for dealer. Ace is, though.

Play maximal defence.
MiketheExpert
1112 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Friday 5:51 AM
This is a great puzzle today, and I have to admit I had a tough time choosing....I'm not going to be able to score enough pts to make it out, so I am not interested in keeping the hand that will give me the maximum score, I want to keep the hand that is likeliest to hold pone to 0 pts. I have to hope that he has a poor hand and I am able to hold him within a few holes of the exit. I'm honestly not sure if it is the best answer, but I threw the (5 J), so as to get rid of the run and 5 from my hand, and at least have one higher card in separation from the rest of my bunched up low cards (A 3 4). Here, as JQT eluded to a couple of days back, my FIRST goal is definitely DEFENSE and no pegs allowed, and then to let my score take care of themselves. (5 J) is the 3rd best throw into your crib in all of cribbage, and with a face card cut (10), let's hope that can carry me close in preparation for counting out on the next hand.
MiketheExpert says: My main problem here is that ace, which could be equal opportunity beneficial, but a possible liability...So either I'll use it to try and stop any potential runs at an opportune time, or hopefully be able to squeeze it in to prevent a go scored by pone. I need to get the count up high and try to do a little dance....clearly the 8 is played on any low card leads (A through 4), and then being left with all lower cards, I am hoping for the best!
MiketheExpert says: I should qualify my comment - with a fantastic cut that (after keeping 3-4-5-8) for example of a 3 that gets me a 14 pt hand, with (A J) in crib, I need to come up with 5 more pts between the crib and pegging, and so I COULD get out if I'm lucky...but trying to hold dealer to 117 or less seems the way to go....and who knows, I could get a barn-burner crib with the (5 J) and still have the same result :)
bbaer1 says: I went with you Mike, for whatever little it’s worth.
mrob2199
1425 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:11 AM
I’m with mike today-we need to have a strong defensive hold here to stifle pones pegging-a 3 or 4 cut would hit the spot
Eolus619
1332 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Friday 6:38 AM

As to board position….To quote a dear friend of mine ..”this is almost as bad as the time it was no good. “ Dealer needs 19 points…double yikes. It is quite possible there could be another hand, but Pone will become dealer and have a distinct pegging advantage then. I am going to peg defensively, keep A-3-4-8 which seems a decent defensive pegging hand, gets cut help from 12/13 ranks. So I am tossing the 5-J to my crib. After the ten cut, I can now account for six points …hand + crib. Pone can help me by discarding Xs to my crib ( often happens) to help my five and/or create a run of three on top of my five. To quote another ranching friend of mine..”looks like we are getting home after dark and we will be wet.”
Eolus619 says: fyi… There have been several comments about weather recently. I think most are posted by. people living in the East. Out West , we are experiencing two double whammy’s. Extreme heat..so hot that cattle are dying of heat stroke in the feed lot yards..and drought. Kansas produces 25% of the wheat grown in the USA. Western Kansas drought will reduce this years harvest by 100 million bushels from last year. Combine this with the fact that the Ukraine and Russia export 30% of the global grain market and that will be well down from last year. Annually, Ukraine wheat alone, has feed about 400 million people globally. When one looks at the harvest shortfall from Kansas , Colorado and Texas ..combined with short supply from Russia and Ukraine, flour shortages are almost inevitable in the coming months here and globally.
winesteward48
829 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Friday 8:38 AM
Let's see if we can defend this minority choice. I was tempted to keep 3-4-5-8 but felt it was a dangerous pegging hand. I like this choice for defensive pegging and the 15 X cards that were available vs. the 9 cards that make the double run. I now have 9 points. Who knows what the crib produces but, I may be able to count first and go out with the next deal.
Duby86
223 votes

Joined: May 2022
 
 
 
Friday 8:52 AM
I kept the run, I am the dealer and count second and the game so close i knew I would need a break, sometimes being the dealer in a close game may not be the best position!!
jmath714
1293 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Friday 8:57 AM
What an awful day.
wasa
3009 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 10:21 AM
Hmm.. I'm one of the few to admit to not keeping the run. I need to prevent dealer from pegging so kept the 4 card 2-points tossing the dangerous 5-J to my crib to prevent a J or 5 trap
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:20 PM
I think it's between 3-4-5-J (A-8), 3-4-5-8 (A-J) and A-4-5-J (3-8) and perhaps A-3-4-8 (5-J):

3-4-5-J: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 8¾pts

3-4-5-8: 5pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.65) = 8¾pts

A-4-5-J: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = 9pts

A-3-4-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

Potential:

3-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cut = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 12 hearts cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

3-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 24 cuts.

A-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 28 cuts. Plus 12 hearts cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6pts with 333, 444, 555, 7777, 888 = 16 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 11pts to get out so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-4-8 will peg best.

Summary:

A-4-5-J and A-3-4-8 have the best starting value by ¼pt but boyh A-4-5-J and 3-4-5-J have an extra ¼pt for nob potential. 3-4-5-J also has the most cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-12pts. So I'll throw A-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:30 PM
At 102*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
A-3-4-8____4.93+1.52+6.92=13.38_____8.8____29.1
3-4-5-J____8.24+1.33+3.67=13.24____10.4____35.4
3-4-5-8____8.15+1.61+3.37=13.13____11.8____31.7
A-4-5-J____7.41+1.59+3.73=12.73_____8.7____33.4

Optimal______L1 %____L2 %
A-3-4-8_______50.2____66.9
3-4-5-J_______43.7____59.6
3-4-5-8_______47.5____63.3
A-4-5-J_______44.9____62.0

Although A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 0.14pt. over 3-4-5-J the latter is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. As its at the end of the game I'll place most emphasis on the Win/Loss %s so I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 10H cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
MiketheExpert says: Sorry, just don't agree with an optimal strategy here. It is defense, defense, and more for me.
Inushtuk1 says: Perhaps he wants to be close enough to peg out next hand against our opponent who will have the pegging advantage. I don't know.