June 25, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
56%
38%
3%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 212
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:00 AM
As the First Dealer, we enjoy a Positional Advantage, one that we shall attempt to keep as long as possible.

It appears that we could either Toss (2 3) or Toss (3 9), and already you can probably guess which way I am leaning!

But can Toss (2 3) 'make up for' the loss of Four Points to begin with in our Hand? I think that when compared with Toss (3 9), it just might!

If our alternative discard idea could contain the 5 Card, or could somehow contain POINTS, then Toss (2 3) might get voted "out" of contention. But in this very interesting arrangement of cards that we dealt ourselves, Toss (2 3) becomes the BOSS.

I was almost going to say that a 5 Card Cut might be the WORST thing that could happen to us today, and then I saw the Trey Cut. Be careful what you don't wish for, I suppose?!

After the Trey Cut, we still now have only Two Points in our Hand, with prospects for a Great Crib.

It seems awful, but we might get a wonderful Crib after all, and a 5 Card Cut often helps our Opponent. And so, the Trey Cut might be a blessing in disguise in the end -- who knows?
JQT says: Remember those w-i-d-e discard choices such as Toss (A X) that are often lauded in some older Cribbage books (and even in some newer ones); well, if we Toss (2 3), after a Trey or Deuce Cut, we shall have either a Dozen or up to Fourteen Points in our Crib, respectively. Not too shabby after all!
JQT says: Some people wondered what I did and how I guessed to achieve a very low Total Score of just 18 (or: 3, 4, 5, 6) on June 24, 2022 for the Daily Quordle 151. My guesses were: spice, later, TWICE, CARGO, RATTY, and TWIST. The strategy was to skip the easy "TWIST" word after getting lucky on my first guess, therefore quickly getting TWICE on Guess Three, and while hunting down CARGO in Guess Four, a good Guess Five allowed RATTY to pop out of the woodwork, then it was a cinch to get TWIST on Guess Six. Does Cribbage make one good at Wordle and WordPlay and Quordle? I find that it does utilize some of the same type of logical thinking, and a good knowledge of English Grammar is probably required as well.
fentesk says: Inspired by your Quordle result, I followed in your mouse clicks (or finger pokes) with a 3,4,5,6 today. I've been playing around with whether I want to lock in a word I am fairly sure I've figured out right away, or leave it to the end in Quordle. I've found I prefer to try it immediately, since I have to get it eventually and it could inform other guesses "now" instead of later. Also, in the cases where I wasn't correct, I can factor that in on future guesses. This is somewhat opposite my approach on Wordle/Wordplay where I'll generally play another guess to narrow down if I at all think there are multiple possible options. A recent puzzle I played ended in -RACK and I made the mistake of guessing at it a couple of times instead of narrowing first, and was down to a final guess with still multiple options. I guessed right, but could have avoided it by playing for the long run (defense) instead of the higher risk better "score" (offense). Or to finish the cribbage analogy, different board positions call for different strategies, and staying flexible and making the correct one at the correct time could be the difference between winning and losing.
JQT says: Today in Quordle, I had a Total Score = 21 (5, 6, 3, 7), and the second word (upper-left quadrant) had me needing to add one more guess, exactly as you described. In Wordle 371, I was hung up similarly also, but got in 4/6 to maintain a 27-day streak. WordPlay was not quite as good as yesterday's 81 score, but I did well with 76 or 3/6, try it: https://wordplay.com/shr/348512700
Hillchem says: I can definitely recall reading about wide discards like A-X. Are you suggesting that this has been discredited over the years? The various discard tables seem to show it being a good discard to opponents crib but maybe not as good as a midcard with a X. If you don’t mind, would you comment more on this, please?
JQT says: It's not that Toss (A X) has been discredited, but it's not to be thought of as an Ultra-Safe discard, either, especially in comparison with a High Card and a Middle Card, as you stated. More modern books properly emphasize that discards such as Toss (6 K) and Toss (9 Q) and even Toss (7 T) are safer, or as safe, as Toss (A X). Some of the older books, and this might include Chambers' book, put Toss (A X) in the wrong category of safeness.
Hillchem says: That seems reasonable; thanks so much for explaining that!
JQT says: Reply to fentesk: If you narrowed it down after two guesses that one answer was either TWICE or TWINE, then it might make sense to guess another, more difficult word, and hopefully you could use a "C" or an "N" in the process to 'attack' two or more unknowns. But if, as I had stated, I knew one answer was TWIST (since my only error was that I had the last two letters reversed), there is nothing to be gained by delaying the entry of a known word, which was your advice. The key it seems is conjuring up the precise guess word(s) that 'straddle' two or more puzzle words at a time!
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:04 AM
Learn today is a net minus one worth the chance to hit in the crib or cut a seven or a ten ? dec
MiketheExpert
1116 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 3:56 AM
Normally as first hand dealer, I'm not fond of sacrificing 4 starting hand points, especially when you are guaranteed to reach hole 7 before the cut and crib count. But I can't resist the (2 3) crib toss here, due to the overwhelming difference in crib throws, and the open-ended run possibility of keeping the (8 8 9) intact. I had already kind of anticipated being left with a 2 pt hand (such as with the 3 or 4 cut card), but was willing to take this risk due the crib throw (2 3) which is more than likely to compensate... (well, maybe not the 3 since it guarantees me a 6 pt hand + 4 pt crib if I had gone the other direction)....So, if that is the worst punishment I can be thrown, I'll accept the potential of a great crib here. Will play off a 9 or surprising 8 lead here, otherwise I'll take my points.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:19 AM
I wish I knew the 3 would be cut ...

Sacrificed my hand to toss myself 2-3. Hope that pays off. Sometimes you can lose the game with a stupid decision on the first hand. Hope this isn't one of those games.
JQT says: After Keep (2 5 8 8) and Toss (3 9), a Trey Cut means we would still only have Six Points in our Hand, and at least Four Points in our Crib. And even after Toss (3 6) from Pone, the BEST we would ever expect, that means a Crib of Sixteen Points, and an overall tally of Twenty-Two Points. However, after Keep (5 8 8 9) and Toss (2 3), all we need after that Trey Cut is the much more likely Toss (A K) from Pone to have a Crib of a Dozen Points! If Pone again did Toss (3 6), we would have a Crib of Eight Points, and if a 4 Cut occurred, a Dozen Points. The power of Toss (2 3) is so enormous, a good exercise would be to look at the typical Pone Discards from 100 random deals in several random games, and then see, even after the Trey Cut, which combined Hand plus Crib does better today. My guess is that Toss (2 3) still prevails, even if we KNOW a Trey Cut will occur! And if a Trey Cut doesn't make Toss (3 9) better than Toss (2 3), what will?
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 5:00 AM
When in doubt I generally take the points.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:12 AM
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 5:18 AM
Yawr!
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 5:22 AM
2-3 is good, but four points is a high price to pay.
Sally3
303 votes

Joined: October 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 5:26 AM
Worth going for the possible run to put a 2-3 in the crib.
fentesk
1197 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 5:28 AM
I wanted a 5 in the crib if I could get it, so went looking for an alternative to keeping the 5 and splitting the 2-3 if possible.

I wasn't enamored with the 5-8 or 5-9 tosses, so it came down to 2-3 vs. 3-9. I decided the power of the 2-3 overcame the lower starting value, and playing defense I didn't need the 2-3 in hand (though I'm not thrilled with the 5-8-8-9 for pegging in general).
scottcrib
1630 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:45 AM
As first dealer, I'm willing to toss the excellent 2-3 to my crib for a smaller hand value. Besides, every cut helps hand or crib.
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 7:17 AM
GFD needs to get to par hole eight after first hand to maintain advantage and then CPZ#1 @ 18. The crib is an extension of dealer’s hand. Toss 2-3
winesteward48
832 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 8:46 AM
I find this type of hand one of the most difficult to decide how to play it. Today I start with max points. Was it correct? I now have 10 points before we see the pone's discards.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 9:01 AM
As others.... 2-3 vs 3-9
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:39 PM
I think we must look at the obvious 2-5-8-8 (3-9) and also 5-8-8-9 (2-3) and perhaps 2-8-8-9 (3-5):

2-5-8-8: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.78) = 9¾pts

5-8-8-9: 2pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 8¾pts

2-8-8-9: 2pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 8pts

Potential:

2-5-8-8: Improves with 222, 555, 7777, 88 + 16xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12pts with 222, 555, 7777, 88 = 12 cuts.

5-8-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/12pts with 222, 7777, 88 = 9 cuts.

2-8-8-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/12pts with 555, 7777, 88, 10101010 = 13 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is at 8pts but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think 2-5-8-8 will peg quite well but perhaps 2-8-8-9 which has a magic eleven and close cards will peg a little better.

Summary:

2-5-8-8 is best for starting value by 1pt and although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement it has 12 cuts for 10/12pts compared to 9 cuts for 6/12pts with 5-8-8-9. So I'll throw the suited 3-9.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:01 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-8-8-9____5.13+(-2.11)+6.95=9.97____36.8____48.1
2-5-8-8____8.09+(-2.20)+3.45=9.34____34.7____48.9
2-3-8-8____4.87+(-1.91)+5.54=8.50____32.1____45.4
2-8-8-9____4.43+(-2.15)+6.11=8.39____31.6____45.6
2-3-5-8____5.61+(-1.93)+4.63=8.31____33.4____45.5

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
5-8-8-9_______28.7____26.4
2-5-8-8_______24.8____24.8
2-3-8-8_______26.8____28.4
2-8-8-9_______25.4____27.6
2-3-5-8_______28.3____28.7

5-8-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.63pt. and is slightly best for Win %s. 2-5-8-8 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Nelson
61 votes

Joined: June 2022
 
 
 
Sunday 1:15 AM
Serious mind bender of an opening hand. My gut say toss the 2/3 but I think we'll keep the 6 points in hand and greet the 3 cut card happily in my crib. Defense will be the theme of the play.