Monday 3:35 AM

If my opponent doesn’t go out I certainly want to make sure I do. Don’t want to take any chances of them pegging as dealer next hand. Defense to the lead.

   

Monday 3:45 AM

I want to help to make sure opponent doesn't go out this deal. Defense to the lead. dec

   

Monday 3:49 AM

   

Monday 3:53 AM

Cannot keep the five without the four. I will attempt defense even though it's kind of hard with this hand.

   

Monday 5:15 AM

Well, looks like as of 8:14am EDT I am the only person choosing this keep. I need to prevent my opponent from going out, and with them only needing 9 points, that may be a hard job. The 5 needs to go in my crib (can't let them trap a 5) and then it makes sense for the J of hearts to go to. Flush a bit harder to read, and my 4 is my escape card if I can prevent my opponent from pegging.

   

Monday 5:26 AM

This gets you home and gives you more pegging options.

   

Monday 5:30 AM

I'm on team Wasa.

   

Monday 5:38 AM

This hold will keep us 8 points with 2 in the crib-it would be about a million to 1 shot if we didn’t get the other 2 points from the cut or pegging if we can hold the pone to 8-this hand provides the most pegging flexibility to defend against different pone holds

   

Monday 5:47 AM

12 points to go out (and counting first next if needed) tells me I want to play defense this hand. Keeping this flush gives me a decent spread of cards to avoid pegging with, and I'm guaranteed 11 of my 12 points. I only need 1 extra from the cut/pegging/crib which we hit with the cut.

Trying to avoid any scoring for pone in the pegging.

   

Monday 6:02 AM

Okay, Cribbage Camp! We dealt ourselves a doozy, with five of the thirteen (or 38%) of the Spade Suits!

Pone needs Nine Points to WIN, and the Average Non-Dealer Score is Ten Points. Is there nothing we can do about this?

Our own score at Hole 109 means that we need a Dozen Points to go out, which is Four Points BELOW the Dealer Average. This means we should have quite a bit of FLEXIBILITY in how we approach the discard decision.

Our objective is therefore crystal-clear: We wish to inhibit Pone's pegging today. Any discard probably leaves us with a sufficient number of combined points from our Pegging, Hand, and Crib, and so I believe it helps if we ignore the strength of both the FLUSH and the Double RUN here!

But we don't appear to have any semblance of a SAFE Pegging Hand! Frankly, I was not quite sure how to proceed with this problem at first sight.

The closest thing we have to safety is probably the PAIR of Jacks! Remember, the more we have of something, the less are the odds that our Opponent was ever dealt that same thing.

The 4-5 combo could get us 'tripped up' and yet either of these cards in isolation could also allow Pone to peg a bunch. I'm going to go way out on a limb, and Toss (4 5) today! What do you think about that?!

What's the lesson in this puzzle? A 'mess' of High Cards is not always a poor Defensive Pegging Hand. We have to view this Double RUN in comparison to any of the alternatives, which all seem a bit worse to me today.

And we do NOT want to become enamored with the POINTS! I often challenge players in exactly such Relative Positions and dare them to try to retain a hand that will NOT put them out, and it's usually a matter of over-shooting the Finish Line by either Half a Dozen Points, or Ten Points, or a Dozen Points!

Let's dive into this concept and give it some scrutiny: If we look at the cards closely, Keep (4 T J J) and Toss (5 Q) is probably our WORST way to 'split' this bunch as far as Total Points is concerned.

According to a few Discard Tools, this Hand shall average about Four-and-a-Half Points, and the Crib shall average about Six-and-a-Half Points. If we peg the Minimum of One Points, this adds up to about a Dozen Points, getting us to Hole 121! And this is the WORST we can probably do! The verdict: Retain the most Defensive Pegging Hand!

The important thing to realize therefore is that we have virtually TOTAL FREEDOM over what we choose to discard today. Any consideration of how the points 'pan out' is time and energy spent focusing on the wrong issue.

Incidentally, Toss (5 X) would perhaps be my Second or 'Runner-Up' decision in Discard Choices. The 5 Card is a real liability in our Hand today. Regardless of what you decide today, try not to let the issue of "Points Obsession" deflect your focus when a Relative Position is strictly about the PEGGING!

After the 6 of Hearts Cut Card, we now have Nine Points in our Hand, with superb prospects for our Crib. We would normally now need to focus very intently upon how we should reply to any of the various leads by Pone, but with the Double RUN, our responses should be very straightforward and almost automatic. We might hesitate only for dramatic effect!

Let's just hope Pone does NOT lead a Jack or an Ace! Because we really have no perfect answer for these leads, not with any discard.

Wordle 373 4/6 - 29-day streak, all green today! I nearly got it in Two Guesses, which would have been a Personal Record. Arrrrrrghh!

⬛🟩⬛🟩⬛
⬛🟩⬛🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛
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Monday 6:39 AM

Ditto the majority of comments.

   

Monday 6:53 AM

Want to avoid the 5-traps: 834, 664, etc.

   

Monday 7:04 AM

To quote jazz & Yogi Berra ..it ani’t over til it’s over..Peg defensively ..very defensively

   

Monday 7:30 AM

This is a tough one for me, with pone at hole 112. The absolute focus should be on trying to prevent pone from pegging any points, as no matter what I throw (as long as I don't destroy my crib with 10 Q) my points will tally by themselves today. I just don't like the defensive aspects of the hand very much...Keeping the lone 5 with all high cards could be disastrous, and keeping one small card (the 4) may not be all that much better. I considered keeping (4 5 10 Q), but even here there is quite an inherent danger on many pone leads in which I am forced to maintain my (4 5) together. I think the least of all evils is to actually keep my double run, as although you lose some flexibility, this can actually turn out to be quite a good defensive hold on many hands which pone could possess, and could effectively limit pone to a low number (0 or 1 peg) probably as well or better than any other combo I can hold here....So we'll go that way, and after the 6 cut, I feel confident I will win on this hand as long as pone is unable to reach the exit.

   

Monday 7:56 AM

All-out defense here, with the hand and the pegging.

   

Monday 8:37 AM

With the game this close it is scary to be the dealer you count last! so my thinking to keep enough points in my hand to have a chance to peg out ??

   

Monday 11:50 AM

I think we must go for the most Defensive hand that scores well. I think that's 10-J-J-Q so I'll throw 4-5 to our crib.

   

Monday 11:59 AM

At 109*-112 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Defense________Win %_____Loss %
10-J-J-Q_______46.2______53.8
4-10-J-J_______43.4______56.6
4-J-J-Q________43.0______57.0
4-10-J-Q_______42.6______57.4
5-10-J-Q_______38.8______61.2
4-5-J-J________38.5______61.5
5-10-J-J_______38.4______61.6
5-J-J-Q________38.2______61.8

10-J-J-Q is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the 6H cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Monday 2:18 PM

First time I've seen the choice of 17% of the panelists (many of them accomplished players) totally ignored in Hal's analysis. I think keeping Q-T-5-4 (flush) as a defensive pegging option and putting JJ in the crib deserves analysis.