August 15, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
111*-110  ?
32%
22%
13%
11%
10%
7%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 239
JQTAnd from the Hand you choose, what card do you respond with after any of the various Lead Cards today?
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:25 AM
Pretty sure the correct answer in not A234. Guessing 2348 might be. Playing off. Playing the 8 on a face or A2345. Playing the 3 on middle cards.

Was 97 2 mondays ago. Its 53 right now. The cribbage fairy and mother nature are bipolar sisters.
JQT says: Those who chose the FLUSH or (A 2 3 J) or even (A 2 3 8) will probably fare okay today, but in my opinion, (2 3 4 8), and especially (A 2 3 4), are simply too "bunched up" for such a Relative Position. I really like the logic you started off with here right from the start when you reasoned, "Pretty sure the correct answer is [sic] not A234" but then you picked another hand of (2 3 4 8) that I believe is also a poor choice and for the very same reasons! This is a tricky Endgame Puzzle, and getting it right may only add a few more WINS to the lifetime ledger, but in this puzzle are elements of thought processes that should help players solve many other difficult Cribbage Endgames as well. Try to take your first thoughts or suspicions, and then additionally ask "Why?" for example the (A 2 3 4) hand is bad, but let's identify WHY it is bad, and then hopefully, doing so will lead to further introspection, such as, "Isn't this puzzle similar to the one we had yesterday?" Or, as MiketheExpert actually states (below), that indeed this is: "similar to yesterday's puzzle" and by connecting these thoughts, it will very often lead to the correct idea and solution.
scottcrib
1630 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 3:54 AM
The flush misses on too many cuts for me to keep it in this position and that would also leave a relatively weak A-3 toss to my crib. I could keep 234J or 2348 for much better scoring prospects as I need to get as close as I can while pegging defensively today.
Play the 8 on any lead but 6-7-8-9-10. Probably play the 3 on those leads.
JQT says: If the RUN is held, getting rid of the Trey safely as you stated is imperative. If you do such analysis BEFORE discarding, it can help to identify those "problem" cards, and then of course the next idea might have been to try to simply DISCARD that Trey right from the get-go!
bbaer1
3685 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Monday 4:09 AM
I preferred a crib toss with no negative delta based on what I’m holding. The cut seals a win for me if I can just keep them on the board.

A234678 leads get a J response from me. 5 gets a 2 response, 9 gets a 4 response as do face cards.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:16 AM
11 out the opponent could hold a face card run, so we would have a Magic 11. Also 2348 improves on any cut. If safe respond with a 2, 3 or 4 so we still have an out card.
Eolus619 says: Congrats on your top 4 finish on the Consy side over the weekend!
Jazzselke says: Tanks!
MiketheExpert
1115 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 5:56 AM
Normally I would try and navigate with the (2 3 4 8) and hope I don't get caught....but because of the availability of the "flush" option, I really wanted to try something different. I like taking my chances here with the flush, it will be very hard to read, and I believe has a great mix of cards (similar to yesterday's puzzle) that could give me a good chance of holding pone off the board pegging-wise, which will be very important. I think the (A 3) suited small discard and this 4-pt flush will be worth 10 points altogether far more often than it is not. The fact that it includes a J is just another added bonus.
MiketheExpert says: Seems the cut card (6H) would like to put my theory very much to the test, as now I am left with only 4 hand points, and very good defensive but not great offensive pegging prospects beyond m y certain pegging point. Certainly one of the perils of breaking up a "5" in your hand to start. Responses to opening leads A thru 3 -> 8 4 thru 8 -> J 9 -> 4 10 and J -> 2 Q and K -> 8
MiketheExpert says: Sorry, 10 -> 2, all of J thru K -> 8
MiketheExpert says: As with most end-game battles at these scores, need to try and envision what pone's potential hands are right from the opening lead, and don't just look at the "first response" to the opener, but plan ahead and try to prevent yourself from getting caught at ANY point during the pegging.
JQT says: I'll confess that the way I composed this puzzle was to first identify how (A 4 8 J) gave the best percentages for Defensive Pegging, and then I added in the FLUSH in such a way to make it ALMOST AS GOOD, but not quite. Why it is inferior is fairly complex, and I think it actually has less to do with the defensive capability (both of these hands are very good for defensive pegging), but in fact the reality is that while the FLUSH has us begin with Four Points in Hand and an Unknown Number of Points in the Crib, if instead we Keep (A 4 8 J) and Toss (2 3), now we have a 91% certainty of also getting Four Points in the Hand, but most importantly, we have a Crib Value of Six Points coming our way after Toss (2 3)! And therefore, lo and behold, the POINTS do matter after all, especially when we consider what I included as a "Runner-Up" or Second-Best "teaser" solution that was added almost as an afterthought, as the FLUSH!
MiketheExpert says: Thinking about this again, I think you are right. The (2 3) toss is better, as you STILL keep a very good defensive hand, and a much better crib throw to boot. Kudos! :)
MiketheExpert says: I got "blinded" by the flush, as I knew the point was to keep the defensive hand....but then overlooked the (2 3), which I should have noted when I mentioned breaking up the powerful 5 on any X-card cut...this expected value is significantly higher, although the hand only starts with 2 pts, the (2 3) in the crib MORE than makes up for this....
wasa says: Hmmm I also was blinded by the flush. I never even considered tossing the 2-3 to my crib. Interesting.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 5:57 AM
8 reply to led A,2,3,4,5
3 reply to a led 6,7,X
4 reply to a led 8,9
wasa
3012 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 6:16 AM
My number 1 goal is to not let my opponent peg, since they need 11 to win, and their expected hand+pegging is 10 points. No way I'm keeping A-2-3-4. Pondered 2-3-4-J or 2-3-4-8 but I don't want to get into a pegging battle.

It pays to flush - hard to read, two escape cards with the 8 and J.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 6:45 AM
As the Dealer at Hole 111, even a great pegging hand, along with a Jack Cut, would make it close to impossible to peg out, since even after a Jack Cut and His Heels, we would still have to peg Eight Holes.

And with Pone at Hole 110 today, now, instead of needing a Dozen Points to defeat us like yesterday, today Pone needs just Eleven Points! Suddenly, instead of 4-to-1 odds against as Pone had yesterday from Hole 109, today Pone has only 2-to-1 odds against! Otherwise, what is different between yesterday's puzzle and today's puzzle? Answer: Absolutely NOTHING. And so, EVERY SINGLE POINT PEGGED IS CRUCIAL!

Look how very similar this puzzle is to yesterday's puzzle, in which Pone needed a Dozen Points, and we had to find the most DEFENSIVE pegging hand! I can assure you that I did not collaborate with mrob2199 about having this puzzle of mine appear on the day following his very similar puzzle, but if we did conspire and attempt to do this, we could not have planned it better!

This puzzle is essentially asking, "Did you believe what we learned with yesterday's puzzle?" Because even if you got that discard wrong, you should be able to use what you learned from that puzzle to help solve this one. Holding onto "Touching" Cards in such a Relative Position can be dangerous; retaining a RUN, lethal! Newsflash: Today's Pegging Battle is a matter of even more URGENCY, and allowing just a single point could cost us this game!

Let's once again therefore ignore our own points for both the Hand and Crib, and try to find the most DEFENSIVE pegging hand. Also, we should notice how very similar this most defensive hand of Keep (A 4 8 J) is to yesterday's most defensive hand. We're basically swapping out Queen for a Jack, PERIOD!

Thus, let's Toss (2 3) and prepare to DEFEND. Just a quick note about POINTS, for those who have concerns: Toss (2 3) produces an Average Crib Value of Seven Points for the Dealer! This, along with the One Point that Dealer ALWAYS will peg, means that we shall likely only need Two Points in our Hand to "cover" the required distance of Ten Points. And we have that AND MORE over 93% of the time, after all but Three Cuts (999), or essentially a 9 Card that is NOT a Club Suit. Trust those numbers!

After the 6 of Hearts Cut, we now must focus less on how that does or does not help our own Hand and Crib, and more importantly, how it will affect Pone's chances to go out and WIN with First Hand Show.

During the pegging for example, if Pone begins to reveal a hand that will reach Hole 121 with certainty, we want to then shift from DEFENSIVE pegging into full OFFENSIVE mode. But until that occurs, we should defend!

If Pone leads an Ace, we could play our 8 Card or our Jack. I think I prefer the Jack, but Pone could have retained a Jack just to attempt to get Nobs, and Pone would have six cards (444, JJJ) that can score. Still, if we played our 8 Card, now Pone has seven cards (6666, 888) that can score.

If Pone leads a Deuce or Trey or 4 Card, I like a Jack as a reply; remember, we did Toss (2 3) in our Crib, so this affects the odds of Pone having these high-bias cards. After a Trey or 4 Card Lead, we could also play our 8 Card as a reply.

If Pone leads a 4 Card, do we risk PAIRING it? Unless we have a PAIR of 4 Cards (and we don't), it's too risky to PAIR the Lead Card. Pone will be MOST opportunistic during the lead, and so if Pone does hold a PAIR, the Lead Card is when we should logically expect to see it!

If Pone leads a 5 Card, either Pone has already WON the game with say (5 5 K K), or Pone seeks to diffuse the pegging energy with say (4 5 5 6), or Pone is in desperate need of a point or two, with say (5 J Q K). In the last instance, in which we maybe still have a chance in this game, we don't want to do what Pone wants us to do! Respond with the 8 Card.

In response to Pone leads of 6 Card or higher, we'll likely respond with our Ace or maybe the Jack: pick your poison. After a 7 Card lead, we could also drop our 4 Card as a percentage play, since only another 4 Card could then score.

If Pone leads any of the three lower Middle Cards, such as a 6 Card, 7 Card, or 8 Card, we can also respond with our Jack as opposed to our Ace, but we can see that the Jack could be a dangerous card, and we'd prefer playing it when it pushes the Count to Twenty-Two or higher, lest it be PAIRED.

Again, if and when we see that Pone's Hand, along with the 6 Card Cut, can "cover" those Eleven Holes Pone needs to WIN, then we should immediately switch to OFFENSE, and peg as much as we can to reduce those Spread Points by which we shall lose. However, until then: DEFEND, DEFEND, DEFEND!

The final vote tally for yesterday's puzzle was that 3% voted for Keep (A 4 8 Q). Today, as of my late-morning Coffee Elixir and Bourbon Restorative, in a nearly identical POSITION on the board, today only 3% have thus far voted for the similar, almost identical hand of Keep (A 4 8 J).
Eolus619 says: Very nice puzzle today…as to your “ restorative “ libation..as my late grandfather would have said ..” we can all benefit from a pick me upper”
sterno
451 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Monday 7:25 AM
From a positional view, we need 10 and the Dealer needs 11. Statistically, if we don't win out, we will lose. We get to play one hand and then the Dealer plays up to 3 before we are on deck again. Full bore offence
JQT says: I believe that from Pone's perspective, you describe this puzzle perfectly! Remember, when we denote the score as (111*-110), our score is always listed FIRST, and this means that WE have a score of 111, and WE are the Dealer, indicated by the (*) asterisk. And since we are the Dealer here, I think we need a more nuanced view of how to proceed. Here is what I would suggest: set up the given position on a Cribbage board, and imagine that Pone has picked the hand you have chosen, or something very similar; a hand that, after the 6 Card Cut, has about Six or Seven Points. Now, look again at the puzzle and determine what hand you think would give you the best chances to win AS THE DEALER. This means we must prevent Pone from pegging perhaps Three or Four Holes, or else Pone will peg out and WIN *before* we ever get to tally our Hand and Crib.
GT25Ump says: I'll back ya up, sterno, and our choice still leads the majority, so without overthinking the situation, it's a fine choice.
Eolus619
1335 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 8:00 AM
It Is easy for me ,at this stage of my cribbage game development, to follow Rob’s advice and not over think puzzles. Board position says defensive pegging again today. My keep is spead out ..with only four losers.
winesteward48
831 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 8:23 AM
I am not sure I should play cribbage this early. 8:00am Pacific Time. Although 2-3 was tempting to discard, I still felt I would come up short and wanted to win with this hand and crib. J through K gets the 8. 6-9 gets a 2. 10 probably the 3. A -5 the 8.
JQT says: If we were trying to lose by 'coming up short' with not enough points, I believe that only two of the fifteen possible hands would really strive to consistently meet that goal: Keep (A 3 8 J) and Toss (2 4), and Keep (A 2 8 J) and Toss (3 4). Both of these begin with Zero Points in both the Hand and the Crib! Keep (3 4 8 J) and Toss (A 2) is also a very weak choice. I honestly believe that ALL of the other dozen choices will either get us to Hole 121 or get us very close. The key to solving such a puzzle is to realize that the Defensive Pegging is a MANDATORY aspect of the solution, whereas the amount of scoring by us as the Dealer is of secondary concern. We MUST stop Pone FIRST! If we get this far in our logic, it then should become apparent that since we start at Hole 111, and since we always peg at least one hole as the Dealer, all we need is a combined Nine Points. One final leap of creativity then allows us to see that if either the Hand or the Crib has about half-a-dozen points, it should be enough to do the trick and get us home. And then the final piece of the puzzle is to realize that the CRIB can be where we place the emphasis for our Scoring Energy, and since Toss (2 3) is tantamount to having a "tailwind" of Six Points, it meets all the criteria of solving this complex Positional Puzzle!
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:32 PM
Learning from yesterday I suppose I ought to throw 2-3 and keep A-4-8-J. It's still tempting to keep 2-3-4-8 as I like three low cards and a middle card with a magic eleven but even so I'll go with the 2-3 throw.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:36 PM
At 111*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %___Loss %
A-2-3-4____8.09+1.61+3.44=13.13____50.8____49.2
2-3-4-J____7.87+1.17+3.73=12.78____52.7____47.3
2-3-4-8____7.87+1.43+3.40=12.70____50.0____50.0
A-2-3-J____7.46+1.48+3.71=12.65____56.3____43.7
A-4-8-J____4.41+1.09+6.53=12.03____59.9____40.1
2-3-8-J____4.80+1.09+5.34=11.23____58.0____42.0
A-2-3-8____6.17+1.46+3.58=11.21____54.7____45.3
2-4-8-J____6.22+0.89+4.01=11.12____58.0____42.0

Although A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.35pt. at this endgame stage of the game Win/Loss %s are more important. A-4-8-J is slightly best over 2-3-8-J and the flush so I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:24 PM
Like yesterday on discard love the 2-3. A-2-3-4 is a bad idea for me. dec