August 16, 2022
67% | |||||
19% | |||||
10% | |||||
1% | |||||
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| Total votes: 243 | |||||
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Tuesday 3:00 AM
We are the Dealer, trailing Pone by Six Holes, but more importantly, we are Three Holes 'shy' of the Third Street Par Hole 70.
It looks like we could either Toss (8 8) or Toss (K K); what else is there?! I suppose that we are just as likely to get a 7 Card Cut as we are to get a Queen Cut. Normally, I would say that we are more likely to get a King from Pone than a 7 Card, but since we were dealt two Kings and no 7 Cards, I suppose this is a 'wash' today as well. As far as pegging goes, I actually think the highest-ranking cards can often peg a wee bit better than the high-ranking or Middle Cards. Pone will often "play out" all cards after a "go" such that we can sometimes PAIR our own Kings to finish the pegging. With a possible slight edge in the pegging for the "X" Cards, and maybe an edge in the Crib for the Middle Cards, let's Toss (8 8). We are usually reluctant to throw PAIRS in our Crib when something better exists, but today, nothing better exists! This must have been quite a "stumper" if this arrangement appeared in an actual game, and it's a real challenge here as a puzzle. Possibly, Jazzselke was out to compose a puzzle in which Toss (8 8), which is normally frowned upon, was the only sensible discard?! After the 5 Card Cut, we have Eight Points in our Hand, and prospects for an average Crib. We should peg as aggressively as possible, in order to attempt to reach our "target," which is about Hole 86 or farther, by completion of this deal. |
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Goatman 2502 votes Joined: March 2017 |
Tuesday 3:02 AM
88 probably won’t get much help in crib…KK might. |
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Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Tuesday 3:07 AM
Kept the 688 together just in case a 7 or A is cut. KK more likely to get help. |
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mrob2199 1435 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Tuesday 3:37 AM
Like the 688 together more than the JKK-more potential with the gut shot cut-also more pegging flexibility with 1 face card instead of 3-the KK discard to our crib always has the potential of an added K from our opponent |
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Samgash 402 votes Joined: November 2016 |
Tuesday 4:16 AM
Interesting scenario. I think I probably botched it with the pegging. |
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mfetchCT425 1399 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Tuesday 4:18 AM
Agree with Rob above today. Ace cut also will help this hold. Will peg where I can as we are slightly out of position. |
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Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Tuesday 5:02 AM
Not my strongest submission, but JQT is correct, wanted to highlight the relative weakness of the 88 throw. |
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Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Tuesday 5:02 AM
Not my strongest submission, but JQT is correct, wanted to highlight the relative weakness of the 88 throw. MiketheExpert says: HI JQT. It may have a slight edge over (K K) in the crib, but I'd also rather have the gutshot chance holding the 688, especially at this time in the game and board position where I need to start making hay fast. MiketheExpert says: =meant Jazz (Dan). Wow, I'm a little bit off this morning! Jazzselke says: Agreed. Plus the advantage of the Ace cut. Eolus619 says: Actually Jazz…This is a valuable board position puzzle…and a lesson in the value of pairs tossed by either player
http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm |
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Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Tuesday 5:03 AM
Ras2829 says: Fine puzzle Jazzselke. As much as I like to retain cards of potential pegging value, little to choose here. So am going for the better scoring crib. |
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james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Tuesday 5:16 AM
I'm part of the small subset of the 6-8-8 gang that chose to discard J-K and not K-K.
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jmath714 1299 votes Joined: January 2012 |
Tuesday 6:06 AM
With the crowd today, nothing to add other than I’ll peg this as aggressively as I can. |
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wasa 3018 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Tuesday 6:06 AM
Odds are against opponent tossing me a 5. |
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MiketheExpert 1122 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Tuesday 6:22 AM
I'm looking for a lucky or max cut here. Since the throw of (K K) in my crib seems to align closely with my goal, it looks like a fairly easy decision. If I couldn't cut the 8, the 5 is one of the next best I could hope for. My hand is only 4, but with a minimum of 6 in the crib and hopefully a few pegs coming my way, I'll try not to lose pace any further, and will take any pegs available. MiketheExpert says: *cutting the 8, meant cutting the 7 above. I'd also take the A :-) |
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Eolus619 1342 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Tuesday 6:55 AM
Board position…current dealer needs to be +3 to the cycle to deal first from 96. Ks , by far, is the most common card Pone sends to the crib. Eolus619 says: btw….it is always good to occasionally review and remind oneself of the value of pairs discarded by either player
http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm Eolus619 says: and the next btw…to see how important it is to be dealing first from 70+ have a look at this link..it uses the monte carlo theory to compute but it seems to match up with Hal relatively well.. uttent dealer has a 40% chance to win from this board posotion
https://www.orbitals.com/cp/calc/tblwin.html
https://www.orbitals.com/cp/calc/tblwin.html
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joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
Tuesday 7:48 AM
The opponent wasn't about to throw a 5. More likely to get a king from pone. Lookie what we found. Here's the 5!!! |
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winesteward48 835 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Tuesday 8:12 AM
I think this hold is helped by a few more cuts. |
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fentesk 1203 votes Joined: January 2021 |
Tuesday 9:36 AM
As the gut shot cuts go, the 7 helps either the 8-8 or K-K discard, while the Q only helps the 8-8 discard.
I'll send the 8-8 in search of crib help today. There are four 7s left for pone to toss, and only two Ks. Many pones will hold onto Jacks like they are family heirlooms, so making the K into a run needs the J cut and Q toss. I'm not sure I can peg much either way, but I have a 16, and a big pair that I might be able to play back-to-back if pone is holding smaller cards. |
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Nelson 61 votes Joined: June 2022 |
Tuesday 9:52 AM
I went with the KK toss as the 6,8,8 enjoys a slight edge in helpful cut cards, with a 7 giving us a real banger of a hand. After "everbody's friend" just showed up, I'm excited to see what has been gifted to my crib. If pone plays an 8 I will match it, otherwise I will try to dance my way through the play and avoid a Jack trap or giving up a 31 for 2. Duby86 says: Ditto |
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dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Tuesday 12:08 PM
K-K might get more help in the crib then 8-8. Seven or an ace cut helps the main hand. dec |
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Ras2829 5154 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Tuesday 12:31 PM
Choosing offense at all decision points as am short of 3rd street CPZ (69-73). Considered only 8-8 or K-K discards. Strange as it may seem, there is less than .5 f a point difference in hand potential score and neither set of cards pegs three points on average. So will go with 8-8 to crib which has an average of 5.496 as compared to K-K with an average of 4.298. Will take any pegs offered. JQT says: Let's examine what differentiates Toss (8 8) from Toss (K K) today. First of all, the 5 Card Cut will only behave differently when we are the Dealer in a potential RUN, which we do not have. This means it will give us Three (15=2) scores, regardless of where ANY of the cards end up today. Therefore, Cut Cards that do significantly and differentially help Keep (6 J K K) include just Four Cards (QQQQ). Cut Cards that significantly and differentially help Keep (6 8 8 J) include Eight Cards (AAAA, 7777), or twice as many, and so what explains the power of Toss (8 8)? Since we are ONLY comparing and contrasting, we do not include Cut Cards such as (5555, 666, 88, 9999, JJJ, KK), because these will add the same amount of additional potential after each candidate or Discard Choice. Now, let's look at what differentially helps Toss (K K) that might come from Pone: (A 4), (2 3), (5 ?), (J Q), and (K ?). We are NOT likely to get any of these EXCEPT the last one, a King; and since we were dealt HALF of the Kings, the odds that we even dealt a single King to Pone are reduced to a paltry 4.3%! Now, let's look at what differentially helps Toss (8 8) that might come from Pone: (A 6), (2 5), (3 4), (6 7), (7 ?), (8 ?), and (9 T). Notice how SEVERAL of these are actually quite possible Pone Discards! Factor in the Cut Card, and we see how Toss (8 8) will receive WAY MORE HELP! This is why Toss (8 8) has a significantly-higher Crib Value than Toss (K K), given what we were dealt today. The average Crib Value will be a FULL POINT HIGHER if we Toss (8 8) as opposed to Toss (K K) in this very unusual puzzle. And my contention is that the pegging might not 'make up' anywhere near a Full Point, and thus like RAS, I prefer Toss (8 8) from this very unusual arrangement. It's important to distinguish how some Cut Cards, such as a 5 Card, help us THE SAME, regardless of which discard we choose here. And it's just as important to factor in how SCARCE the Kings will be, since we already dealt ourselves HALF of them! MiketheExpert says: I don't disagree with the logic at all when looking at combined potential of all facets of the hand (hand +crib + peg score). There are sometimes I feel I look just beyond the "average", as in which one is more likely to do MAXIMUM damage given the proper mix (and good fortune, of course!)....and this is one those positions that I may sacrifice a point or so in expected average in order for perhaps the better potential to move even FARTHER up the board given I am already short of 3rd street. Sort of like an all-or-nothing mentality :) |
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Coeurdelion 5594 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Tuesday 3:34 PM
I think it's between 6-J-K-K (8-8) and 6-8-8-J (K-K):
6-J-K-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts 6-8-8-J: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.58) = 6¾pts Potential: 6-J-K-K: Improves with 5555, 666, 9999, JJJ, QQQQ, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 5555, QQQQ, KK = 10 cuts. Plus 11 club cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. 6-8-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/12pts with AAAA, 7777, 88 = 10 cuts. Plus 11 club cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. Position: We're 3pts short of positional hole while Pone is 3pts past it. Ideally they would like to be at 86pts so I'll play cautious offense. Pegging: I think 6-8-8-J is likely to peg better. Summary: 6-J-K-K has a better starting value by 1pt but 6-8-8-J has more cuts for improvement and 10 cuts for 6/12pts compared to 10 cuts for 6/8pts with 6-J-K-K. Also I think 6-8-8-J will peg slightly better. So i think 6-8-8-J may catch up the 1pt and I'll throw the K-K. |
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HalscribCLX 5317 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Tuesday 3:36 PM
At 67*-73 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %___W4 % 6-J-K-K____3.89+2.35+5.54=11.78____4.7____21.4 6-8-8-J____4.24+2.83+4.49=11.56____2.0____17.5 8-J-K-K____3.85+2.48+4.82=11.15____2.5____18.3 Offense_______L3 %___L4 % 6-J-K-K________6.7____46.8 6-8-8-J________6.7____50.3 8-J-K-K________6.0____48.0 6-J-K-K is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. and is significantly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-8 to discard. After the 5 cut I'll play Offense to the lead. |
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