September 20, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
66*-63  ?
60%
12%
9%
9%
6%
0%
0%
Total votes: 233
James500Page 37 of, "Cribbage: How to play and win", by Buttler and Buttler, recommends 2-2-5-8 unless, "well behind on the cribbage board", when you should, "gamble... and discard the 2-3 combination". Thoughts? Fwiw, I quite like 2-2-3-8 (5-7).
mrob2199
1071 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:06 AM
I like keeping the 223 together here-praying for a non 9 cut
Gougie00
5143 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:31 AM
I want that 223 together. The 6 doesn't help my hand but the crib might be loaded. The 223 should be able to peg a bit.
james500
3354 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:43 AM
I'll follow the book's advice and choose 2-3.
Very keen to hear from any 5-7 supporters, and I note there are two above me.
Gougie00 says: I am wrong way Corrigan a good percentage of the time.
dph says: FWIW, I'm discarding 5-7 too. Loving the A-4-X cuts and I can live with the 6 that came up.
Eolus619 says: James500…Great lesson about relative score verse board position from your puzzle submission ..well done
james500 says: Thank you all for the kind words. A very interesting discussion today, as usual.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Fine puzzle and like your thinking.
JQT
3588 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:04 AM
Today, James500 starts us off with an interesting variety of cards, and an even more intriguing Relative Position, along with a relevant discussion.

While by all accounts we may appear to be Ahead and Dealing, our Opponent actually has a very good grip on this game, and that's because Pone is almost certain to become Next Dealer well beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70.

This likely puts us in a Defensive Situation, unless we can break out and scramble toward Hole 96 over the course of our pending Three Counts. And sadly, we are about half a dozen points 'shy' of trending toward that lofty goal.

Nevertheless, our card arrangement does look somewhat promising, and we might Keep (2 2 3 5) and Toss (7 8) and do quite well in either our Hand or our Crib. But if both of these do not do above average, we really want one or the other to become what Cribbage Lore has termed a real "Barn Burner."

Aside from Toss (7 8), we might also look at Toss (2 2), and there is even a more radical idea such as Toss (3 7), but I see no simple way to put the 5 Card into our Crib, not without seemingly torturing the remainder of our Hand and Crib as a whole. I guess we could at least consider Toss (5 7).

Toss (5 7) is an interesting specimen, and it would be more difficult to dismiss if it allowed both our Hand and our Crib to "pop" with a similar Cut Card. But I see no such "Kabangi Cut" that might make this our best solution.

And then, we must finally of course look at the undeniable, irrepressible, indefatigable Toss (2 3)! When we are the Dealer, and when Toss (2 3) is an available idea, we must always at least consider and look at it. Can Toss (2 3) actually compete with the 'likes' of Toss (7 8) and maybe even Toss (5 7) today? I think maybe it can.

If we Keep (2 5 7 8) and Toss (2 3), we have possibly met the requirements of the position, which begs for a Hand and Crib that, as homage to Lake Wobegon would have us believe, both may 'Become Above Average.' This is what we are looking for today!

Let's Toss (2 3) Suited and see how far down that lonely road we can get.

After the 6 Card Cut, we now have (in and easy to miscount bundle) Ten Points in our Hand, with prospects for a very good Crib. We should peg at least our average, and we will take all but the very risky pegs.
Eolus619 says: I am with you today on your discards..only two losing cuts, three cuts give us a double run & the power of 2-3 to the crib.
Eolus619 says: Sorry JQT…whoops ..actually only one cut doesn’t help..a four ..whew
glmccuskey
3552 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:57 AM
Today has me agreeing with JQT. Offense all the way in these positions.
wasa
2471 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:22 AM
Interesting. I never even considered the top choice (as of 9:20am EDT) of tossing the 7-8. Ideally wanted to keep the 2-2-3 together, and the 8 works with that. Always like a 5 in my crib. The 7 is a key connector. I did ponder the 2-3 as my second choice, since it is a top discard. In the end, kept the 2-2-3 together for the double run or face card cuts
Eolus619
775 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:31 AM
As is often the case , JQT is worth repeating
“While by all accounts we may appear to be Ahead and Dealing, our Opponent actually has a very good grip on this game, and that's because Pone is almost certain to become Next Dealer well beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70. ..66*-63…92*-89…118*-115
This puzzle seems to be right out of a Ras lesson about discards and sacrificing ..see link below ..all is interesting ..however scroll down a ways in the link to read about the discards that should only be made when giving up points .

https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/lesson2-1.pdf
Eolus619 says: Specially what I am referring too in the link above is on the second page of two which outlines the “conditions” for implementing the Big & small hand rule.
jdc_wolfpack
222 votes

Joined: June 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:21 AM
Hmmm... I went 2-3 for the highest minimum combined score. The 7-8 stood out as the initial gut throw, but that would leave me hoping for a face (which I don't love).
Inushtuk1
934 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:01 AM
I tossed the suited (2-3) as well. After reading James500's comments, I see the value of (5-7). I look forward to reading page 37 of James's first book on Cribbage. James; perhaps you should call it, "Cribbage: Thinking Outside the Box". I always enjoy the way you often find unique solutions to these puzzles.

Speaking of which; I must say the quality of the submissions has been outstanding of late.
james500 says: Hi Mike. I hope all's well with you, lovely to have you back on here. If I were to write a book on Cribbage, I think I'd need to use a large font and double line spacing to reach 37 pages! Thank you for the kind words though.
Inushtuk1 says: You're welcome James.
Ras2829
4594 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:31 AM
As dealer, am short of 3rd street CPZ (69-73). Needed to be there at the start of this hand; so, got to take what I can here. Choosing offense when looking at the pegs; once seeing the six cards dealt; and reinforced after seeing the starter card. So it's an offense strategy to include the pegging. Will play on the lead. Holding the open-ended run prospect adds so much to the potential hand value that it outweighs the potential crib score of 2-3 to crib. My second choice would have been to retain the triple nickel and discard 7-8. Combined values (pegs, hand and crib scores) favor this hold over others whether choosing an offense, optimal, or defense strategy. Don't know what win/loss % might show; will defer to HalscribCLX on that point.
Eolus619 says: BTW…if you have not read Ras’s reply to wetbomb yesterday pertaining to magic 11s i suggest you do…what an insightful tutorial
Inushtuk1 says: Yes indeed. And may I add JQT's remarks after, about a two card 11 with an X-Card for Pone.
HaydenSr says: I don't know if they have a name but I call them "fun 21" (magic 11+X) and look for them often as pone, it pays dividends!
wetbomb says: And here I've been saving 2 card 11's as pone and wondering why they didn't help. The book I have is quite misleading on this topic.
Inushtuk1
934 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:18 PM
The lack of reviews about the book in question is deafening.
JQT says: Any book about Cribbage or Chess is bound to have some need for a subsequent edition to make corrections (when DeLynn Colvert died, his book was on its Fifth Edition!), etc., but one review of Buttler's book that did concern me by "Norm N." says, "Much inaccurate information. Author needs to learn a lot more about cribbage before trying to write about it." Granted, someone could fake a name and a review, and to be fair, I have not read this book, nor have I read Norm's book, which just came out in January 2021. Barnes and Noble has the publishing date of Buttler's book as 09/01/2017, with an eBook slated for early next year (Jan 2023).
bbaer1 says: I agree that this month’s submissions have been wonderful. Insightful, thought-provoking, and sometimes head scratching. But a learning experience nonetheless. About the Buttler’s book: The information therein must be cherry-picked. It says they used the latest computers in their research, but I believe their computers consisted of wooden discs on metal rods. Nice to see a Buttler reference though as their book adds to cribbage knowledge, however slightly.
Ras2829 says: There is no book on cribbage to match that of DeLynn Colvert. Some have bits and pieces worth noting. Many have been authored by people with mediocre cribbage skills at best. Colvert led the world in cribbage success for decades. Had the opportunity to play DeLynn many times over my first two decades of ACC membership. The first edition of his book (copyright of 1980) is much the same as the fifth edition. An amazing feat to publish in 1980 without the benefit of computer data bases. Suspect that some of Colvert's notes were written on the back of a napkin as he played regularly at the Union Hall in Missoula Montana. Believe that I might have met Jake the Snake as I played a few times in that Union Hall in Big Sky Country.
wetbomb says: I'll have to check it to see if I read it right, but Dylynn's book says to keep 2 cards that equal 11 without mentioning that this will only help you if you are the dealer.
scottcrib
1057 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:39 PM
Just chilling in Omaha. I went this way.
dec
5770 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:36 PM
Clue two diamonds to discard seems to be a very good choice. Offense. dec
Coeurdelion
5041 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:13 PM
I think it's likely to be between 2-2-3-8 (5-7), 2-2-3-5 (7-8), 2-2-5-8 (3-7), 2-5-7-8 (2-3) and 3-5-7-8 (2-2):

2-2-3-8: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 10pts

2-2-3-5: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

2-2-5-8: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 9½pts

2-5-7-8: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

3-5-7-8: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 9¾pts

Potential:

2-2-3-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 22, 33, 4444, 555, 888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

2-2-3-5: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/10pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 888 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 333, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with 22, 555, 888 = 8 cuts.

2-5-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xxs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10pts with 22, 333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts.

3-5-7-8: Improves with 22, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're 4pts short of 3rd street positional hole but Pone is 7pts short so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think all the hands will peg well but 2-2-3-8 has 3 low cards and a middle card and a magic eleven so I think it will peg slightly best.

Summary:

2-5-7-8 is highest for starting value by ¾pt. over 2-2-3-8 and it has slightly more cuts for improvement it but only 22 cuts for 8-10pts while 2-2-3-8 has 34 cuts for 8-12pts and 24 cuts for 7-10pts with 3-5-7-8. So overall I think 2-2-3-8 has better potential for improvement I'll throw the 5-7.
HalscribCLX
4767 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:47 PM
At 66*-63 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-2-3-8____7.87+1.48+5.98=15.33____35.2____44.7
2-2-3-5____6.83+1.67+6.61=15.11____35.0____42.2
2C-5-7-8___6.87+1.46+6.71=15.09____34.4____45.8

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-3-8________25.5____40.5
2-2-3-5________27.2____42.2
2C-5-7-8_______23.7____39.5

2-2-3-8 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. but 2C-5-7-8 is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s which as we're approaching 3rd street positional hole I think are more important. So I'll throw the suited 2-3.

After the 6 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
MiketheExpert
551 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:12 PM
Agree with HAL above today, am basing the (2 3) discard on an optimal strategy, and most cuts are helpful to the hand, crib, or both. But honestly, I would not disparage any (5 7) or (7 8) tosses either in this situation.
bbaer1 says: The Buttler did it, once again.