September 27, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Sally3
0-0*  ?
37%
17%
16%
11%
8%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 245
Sally3How to start this game? An ace was the real cut. Too many options, with none great. I tossed 6-J, but wanted to toss 9/J.
james500
3417 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:08 AM
6-J seems a reasonable compromise. Four points for me, and no guarantee of anything for them.
glmccuskey
3595 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:18 AM
I like Sally’s throw of 6-J. I’ll lead the three of clubs and take any pegs offered.
scottcrib says: Sorry we didn't get to play each other in Omaha, but it was good to see you again.
Sally3 says: I echo Scott. At least I finally got to deliver a hug :)
dec
5831 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:26 AM
I believe most experts would pick this. A three or a four gets cut, brilliant! The safety lead a three. dec
JQT
3651 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:09 AM
I often like to lead a 9 Card when I have a Trey, but the play loses a bit of its charm when we hold two Treys: let's conform, and lead a Trey.
Andy (muesli64) says: How do I get in touch with you?
JQT says: jqt333 at gmail Dot com
Jazzselke
2229 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:16 AM
With the herd today. My second choice would be 335J, but no reason to throw 69 when it doesn't garner extra points for us.
scottcrib says: Nice to see you in Omaha. Hope your wrist heals up soon or else you may forget how to shuffle! :-)
Jazzselke says: Thanks! At the orthopedic right now.
Sally3 says: Oh good! Hope you heal fast :)
cribbagepogo says: You need to give up the martial arts and stick with cribbage.
mrob2199
1119 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:30 AM
Echo today-this hold still provides us with a 3 or 4 cut to garner us 12 while discarding the safe J6-was great seeing all my DCH friends in Omaha-hope we can recruit a few more for next years GN in Virginia Beach
scottcrib says: It was a pleasure seeing you again and meeting Kendra.
mrob2199 says: Thanks Scott-we had a pretty topsy turvy game there-I think it took us 5 hands to get off first street lol
Sally3 says: Same sentiment, and I got to meet Goatman--on the last day, finally!
Goatman says: Nice to have met you Sally. May see you Battle Creek sometime.
scottcrib
1119 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:49 AM
Bye-bye J-6. Nice cut.
Sally3 says: I have validation now lol. After my lousy GN!
Gougie00
5206 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:17 AM
Not seeing much on the menu I like. I'll hold 3359 and toss the 6J in hopes of keeping the pone close.

Lead the 3 and see if I can muster up a few pegs.
MiketheExpert
613 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:46 AM
Between (6 9) and (6 J), and why toss the points when you can still start with 4 pts this way? I may try the "fancy" 9 lead here on first deal after the nice 9 cut. If pegging starts off (9-X-3) making the count 22, some potentially good things can happen depending on what dealer if forced (or not able) to play next.
jmath714
1239 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:12 AM
Looks like we’re all on the same page here.

What a great time in Omaha. I miss my cribbage family already.
Sally3 says: Then you need to come for our Thanksgiving tourney! Was nice to meet S, too :)
cwed
1350 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:27 AM
Everything that helps 3-3-5-6 also helps 3-3-5-9; that is, A, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, J, Q, K. So I'll toss the more defensive 6-J.

Omaha proved once again why Grand National is one of the best events to attend every year.
Sally3 says: Especially when you get inducted into the Hall of Fame :) yay!
cribbagepogo says: The cribbage was great. Scott K. worked like a dog and my hallway smelled like a dog show and the room a pipe smokers dream.
Eolus619
835 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:30 AM
A couple of Ras’s observations come to mind. Three of ten games are lost on the first hand…so no 5-J. Next …six of the top ten dealer discards to own crib get help from a Pone sending a six discard. But looking at the six dealt cards this seems like the compromise path today. Pondered 6-9.
wasa
2533 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:33 AM
Briefly pondered the 6-9. Didn't really ponder the 5-J but some could argue max offence first deal as pone. I can understand that logic.
Andy (muesli64)
2137 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:06 AM
With the flow. Reasons stated above.
wetbomb
44 votes

Joined: April 2022

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:14 AM
Did not want to give the J or a pair of 3s, so that means tossing one 3 and either the 9 or 6. Keeping the 6 preserves the 11 for pegging as well as the chance for a run, so that's what I kept.
wetbomb says: oops! forgot that the 2 card 11 isn't any good as pone. Slow learner. Still, I thought maybe we could hit the 5-6 on either end. Better odds than with 335, but not as good of a payoff if hit.
MiketheExpert says: It's already a good thing that you caught yourself with the 2-card 11, so whatever insight you can glean from this great site into improving your game may already be starting to pay off! Hope you stick with it, and even eventually may become comfortable with your own submissions also! :-)
Coeurdelion
5104 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:22 PM
I think it's between 3-3-5-J (6-9), 3-3-5-9 (6-J), 5-6-9-J (3-3) and 3-3-6-9 (5-J):

3-3-5-J: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

3-3-5-9: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.57) = -½pt

5-6-9-J: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -2½pts

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.78) = -2pts

Potential:

3-3-5-J: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-3-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12pts with 33, 4444, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

5-6-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 24 cuts. Plus 11 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is 18pts so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 3-3-5-J and 3-3-5-9 will peg best with 3 low cards and a high card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

3-3-5-9 is best for starting value by 1½pts over 3-3-6-9 and 1¾ts over 3-3-5-J but 3-3-5-9 has only 13 cuts for 8/12pts while 3-3-5-J has 20 cuts for 8/12pts and 5-6-9-J has 24 cuts for 7-9pts. Even so I don't think they'll catch up the 1½pts so I'll throw the 6-J.
HalscribCLX
4829 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:23 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-3-5-9____6.74+1.57+(-4.34)=3.97____23.8____23.3
3-3-5-J____6.98+1.80+(-5.97)=2.81____24.7____20.9
3-3-5-6____5.70+2.02+(-4.96)=2.76____22.6____20.5
3C-5-6-J___5.07+1.54+(-4.28)=2.33____20.4____20.2
5-6-9-J____6.93+1.65+(-6.38)=2.20____24.9____20.4

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
3-3-5-9________36.6____50.5
3-3-5-J________41.6____54.2
3-3-5-6________39.1____53.4
3C-5-6-J_______37.5____53.3
5-6-9-J________42.8____55.0

3-3-5-9 is best for expected averages by 1.16pts and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
9______________________1.91
3______________________1.77
5______________________1.38
Ras2829
4657 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:37 PM
Nice to be back on the site - fishing trip cut short as forest on which we have fished since 1967 was closed down because of fires burning adjacent and extreme fire danger with no relief in sight. Wanted to comment only on the 6-J and 9-J discards. The 6 with any X-point card is a very good choice as they produce a high number of 0-2 cribs and a very small number of cribs of 12 or more. The 6-J 4.533 20/91 (984) scores 0-2 31.504%, and scores 12 or more 1.016%. The 9-J falls into the rankings 22 points further down the line with an average of 4.864 (501), scores 0-2 26.746% and scores 12 or more 3.393%. So, 6-J is nearly 25% more likely to score 0-2 and more than three times less likely to give up a crib of 12 or more.
Ras2829 says: From this hand or similar as n/d if choosing offense strategy, most places on the board, lead the 9. If playing defense strategy lead a trey.