Tuesday 3:08 AM

6-J seems a reasonable compromise. Four points for me, and no guarantee of anything for them.

   

Tuesday 3:18 AM

I like Sally’s throw of 6-J. I’ll lead the three of clubs and take any pegs offered.

   

Tuesday 3:26 AM

I believe most experts would pick this. A three or a four gets cut, brilliant! The safety lead a three. dec

   

Tuesday 4:09 AM

I often like to lead a 9 Card when I have a Trey, but the play loses a bit of its charm when we hold two Treys: let's conform, and lead a Trey.

   

Tuesday 4:16 AM

With the herd today. My second choice would be 335J, but no reason to throw 69 when it doesn't garner extra points for us.

   

Tuesday 4:30 AM

Echo today-this hold still provides us with a 3 or 4 cut to garner us 12 while discarding the safe J6-was great seeing all my DCH friends in Omaha-hope we can recruit a few more for next years GN in Virginia Beach

   

Tuesday 4:49 AM

Bye-bye J-6. Nice cut.

   

Tuesday 5:17 AM

Not seeing much on the menu I like. I'll hold 3359 and toss the 6J in hopes of keeping the pone close.

Lead the 3 and see if I can muster up a few pegs.

   

Tuesday 5:46 AM

Between (6 9) and (6 J), and why toss the points when you can still start with 4 pts this way? I may try the "fancy" 9 lead here on first deal after the nice 9 cut. If pegging starts off (9-X-3) making the count 22, some potentially good things can happen depending on what dealer if forced (or not able) to play next.

   

Tuesday 6:12 AM

Looks like we’re all on the same page here.

What a great time in Omaha. I miss my cribbage family already.

   

Tuesday 6:27 AM

Everything that helps 3-3-5-6 also helps 3-3-5-9; that is, A, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, J, Q, K. So I'll toss the more defensive 6-J.

Omaha proved once again why Grand National is one of the best events to attend every year.

   

Tuesday 6:30 AM

A couple of Ras’s observations come to mind. Three of ten games are lost on the first hand…so no 5-J. Next …six of the top ten dealer discards to own crib get help from a Pone sending a six discard. But looking at the six dealt cards this seems like the compromise path today. Pondered 6-9.

   

Tuesday 6:33 AM

Briefly pondered the 6-9. Didn't really ponder the 5-J but some could argue max offence first deal as pone. I can understand that logic.

   

Tuesday 9:06 AM

With the flow. Reasons stated above.

   

Tuesday 9:14 AM

Did not want to give the J or a pair of 3s, so that means tossing one 3 and either the 9 or 6. Keeping the 6 preserves the 11 for pegging as well as the chance for a run, so that's what I kept.

   

Tuesday 4:22 PM

I think it's between 3-3-5-J (6-9), 3-3-5-9 (6-J), 5-6-9-J (3-3) and 3-3-6-9 (5-J):

3-3-5-J: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

3-3-5-9: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.57) = -½pt

5-6-9-J: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -2½pts

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.78) = -2pts

Potential:

3-3-5-J: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-3-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12pts with 33, 4444, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

5-6-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 24 cuts. Plus 11 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is 18pts so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 3-3-5-J and 3-3-5-9 will peg best with 3 low cards and a high card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

3-3-5-9 is best for starting value by 1½pts over 3-3-6-9 and 1¾ts over 3-3-5-J but 3-3-5-9 has only 13 cuts for 8/12pts while 3-3-5-J has 20 cuts for 8/12pts and 5-6-9-J has 24 cuts for 7-9pts. Even so I don't think they'll catch up the 1½pts so I'll throw the 6-J.

   

Tuesday 4:23 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-3-5-9____6.74+1.57+(-4.34)=3.97____23.8____23.3
3-3-5-J____6.98+1.80+(-5.97)=2.81____24.7____20.9
3-3-5-6____5.70+2.02+(-4.96)=2.76____22.6____20.5
3C-5-6-J___5.07+1.54+(-4.28)=2.33____20.4____20.2
5-6-9-J____6.93+1.65+(-6.38)=2.20____24.9____20.4

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
3-3-5-9________36.6____50.5
3-3-5-J________41.6____54.2
3-3-5-6________39.1____53.4
3C-5-6-J_______37.5____53.3
5-6-9-J________42.8____55.0

3-3-5-9 is best for expected averages by 1.16pts and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
9______________________1.91
3______________________1.77
5______________________1.38

   

Tuesday 4:37 PM

Nice to be back on the site - fishing trip cut short as forest on which we have fished since 1967 was closed down because of fires burning adjacent and extreme fire danger with no relief in sight. Wanted to comment only on the 6-J and 9-J discards. The 6 with any X-point card is a very good choice as they produce a high number of 0-2 cribs and a very small number of cribs of 12 or more. The 6-J 4.533 20/91 (984) scores 0-2 31.504%, and scores 12 or more 1.016%. The 9-J falls into the rankings 22 points further down the line with an average of 4.864 (501), scores 0-2 26.746% and scores 12 or more 3.393%. So, 6-J is nearly 25% more likely to score 0-2 and more than three times less likely to give up a crib of 12 or more.