September 29, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
28%
21%
18%
15%
4%
3%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 234
Goatman
2456 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 3:03 AM
Didn’t want to give the 23 nor 77 to dealer so went with the 3377.
JQT
3651 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 AM
We must avoid Toss (2 3), but maybe everything else is still "on the table" today. Let's examine that table more closely.

As far as 'unleashing' either of the PAIRS 'over the board' here: I'm not too wild about Toss (7 7) or Toss (3 3), but if we do throw a PAIR, Toss (3 3) is probably almost as dangerous as Toss (7 7).

After this idea has been looked at, the only discards left are Toss (3 7) or Toss (2 7). Toss (3 7) sort of takes an axe to our Potential Hand, although it does leave both a 2-3 combo and a PAIR behind.

Toss (2 7) is interesting, since it "plays" on the Negative Delta in the largest way, as we hold two Treys, somewhat limiting the damage that could be caused by a Deuce in the Dealer's Crib.

Our most powerful potential Hand is probably Keep (2 3 3 7) and Toss (7 7), and we could try this using the principle that, "Our Opponent doesn't know what we are discarding!" and so we might get away with it unscathed.

We might also consider Toss (2 7), if we are looking for a more defensive approach, which leaves us with Two PAIRS.

It's tricky, because either of these top two discard choices allow us to do fairly well after a 5 Card Cut. And so, both pass the "5 Card Cut" test.

Ultimately, I'll go with Keep (2 3 3 7) and Toss (7 7), because it looks like any way we try to retain a good potential hand today could get us burned, and with the 2-3-3 cluster still intact, we could actually end up shining ourselves! Let's pitch those RED 7 Cards overboard!

Any Ten (or "X") Card Cut sets us up nicely with Eight Points, and even our "Dirty Dozen" WORST Cuts (6666, 8888, 9999) all do at least add Two Points to our Hand.

After the 4 Card Cut, we now hold Ten Points, and unless the Dealer 'stowed away' a PAIR of 4 Cards or 8 Cards in the Crib, we should be okay. Let's lead a Trey from our PAIR, and try to peg as much as we can.
JQT says: On today's Quordle, I had all but one word solved, and two guesses remaining. My penultimate guess showed that I now had all five letters correct, but only the last letter was "green" and thus in the proper place. And then, I solved it, realizing that the actual word of the puzzle is probably a much more common word than the one I had guessed before this!
MiketheExpert says: Keep (2 3 3 7) has an expected avg of around 8, and (7 7) is a touch under 7 in opponent's crib, so as far as pure "offensive" potential when taking pegs into account, I suspect HAL/Ras pick this while using the typical 1st deal Colvert/offense strategy. But today I'd rather play for the "uphill struggle" than getting severely burnt on first deal, since making beyond hole 10 would exceed our expectations no matter what we do here.
JQT says: Why does an Offensive Approach often work out well for us on the First Deal as Pone? If we begin as Non Dealer or Pone, we get First Hand Show on each odd-numbered deal. And, since most games of Cribbage last nine or ten deals, if we seek to maximize our own score right out of the starting gate, this is an attempt to reduce the number of total deals in our favor, toward nine and away from ten. That means, if we can score above average during the initial deal, it will help to ensure that during deal nine, we are close enough to go out and hopefully win, in spite of starting the game at a disadvantage.
mrob2199
1119 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:41 AM
It’s the first hand of the game-no need to get too risky here-keep the 2 pairs and look for a better spot later
james500
3417 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 4:20 AM
Could lead the 3 from the 3-2 combo, or a 7 from the 7-7-2 sixteen. I suppose that the 3 lead is better as I need only for Dealer to hold an X, rather than an X and also a 5.
MiketheExpert
613 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 5:42 AM
Despite today's cut, I'm not going to throw the pair of 7's on first deal here, which is the most dangerous pair which can be thrown over the board, in order for a maximum cut of 10 pts and a better offensive pegging hand. (2 3) is even more out of the question, and thus I narrowed my choices to throwing either (3 3) or (2 7) unsuited. Although (2 7 7 7) has a total of 13 cuts (AAAA,6666,7,8888) for a dozen, I don't like the resultant hand, which is also a dangerous pegging hand as pone despite the presence of three 7's...So today, I'll opt for the safe play to start, throwing (2 7), and with (3 3 7 7). Although only 4 cuts for a dozen (the 5's), and several for 6 or 8, I am much more comfortable with the resultant pegging hand.
MiketheExpert says: *I should say the most dangerous pair next to throwing the (5 5) above :)
fentesk
706 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 5:54 AM
Very interested to see the results today. In the end, I went against my defensive nature and asked myself "which hand should peg the best". I decided 2-3-3-7 would be the most offensive with the lowest cards.

Whether a better pegging hand overcomes the (with my luck not so occasional) potential for crib explosion is an important question for me today.
MiketheExpert says: Very good RAS puzzle today, and I'm also quite interested to see what side of the fence is picked today by HAL and co. It's a 3-way horse race based on the popular vote, so I can see all kinds of different (divisive) opinions being thrown around today.
wasa
2533 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 6:17 AM
Considered 3-3, 7-7, or 2-7. Didn't really ponder 2-3. As first pone, full on offence. Like to keep the 2-3-3 together. As kept, every cut helps the hand.
Gougie00
5206 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:18 AM
Misread whose crib it was. Probably would have tossed 77 anyway because I like that 233 together. A lucky mistake? Lead the 3 and peg if possible. I am hoping to see an 8 in the dealer's hand.
scottcrib
1120 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 6:35 AM
Kept the points and still several cuts for a dozen.
Inushtuk1
983 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 6:55 AM
This has the most cuts for 12 I think. 2-3-3-7 also starts with 6 points, as every cut will get you to at least that amount. But (7-7) is almost a point more dangerous. I did not consider how poor a pegging hand I have. Lead the black 7.
Eolus619
835 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 6:58 AM
With this hand & score the question for Pone is?…. too Colvert or not to Colvert. It is beyond hard for me to send a discard whose points to dealer ,on average , exceed kept points in my keep. I will not be lending a hand ( so to speak) to me contributing to Ras’s Stat of 3/10 games are lost on first hand. Going conservative with 2-7 and start with four getting cut help from A,2,3,5,7,8 & 9. As a btw, Pone discarding pairs… 11/13 ranks average above six in the crib…so 3-3 or 7-7 are nearly as bad as 2-3. …only a pair of Ks or Qs average under six.

http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
fentesk says: This may be better asked to Ras, but do you have a feel for the 3/10 games lost on the first hand, how much (if any) are due to our not being aggressive enough (too defensive) vs. giving away too many points (too offensive)?
Eolus619 says: fentesk hello..the only Ras stat i read was 3/10…no insight on O verse D..Ras will have to comment..suspect it is the six cards dealer gets dealt
MiketheExpert says: I'm not 100% sure myself where 3/10 comes from. My thoughts is that it stems from the fact that in every 2/10 games, one or the other player's cards are so far superior to the others, that the final outcome will not be changed regardless of what strategy is used or how they play the cards...Thus, you will win 20% of the time and lose 20% of the time (for a total of 4/10 games) just by the luck of the cards. The remaining 60% of game's outcomes can by affected by the decisions made by either player, but does this mean that it is based solely on the decisions made on "1st deal?", or rather at every crucial point in the game (starting on no less than 1st deal) where this outcome could change. In that way, you will lose (or win) 3/10 games, similarly for your opponent (3/10) which makes up the remaining 60%.....
MiketheExpert says: First phrase should say "every 4/10 games" (i.e 20% for each player).
MiketheExpert says: This also means that the "max" win rate range should be within 20%-80%, if the "best" player in the world plays one who would always make the "worst" decisions....But realistically, no one is that bad or that good, thus the range should be closer to 40%-60%... :-)
JQT says: I am loath to disrupt a good phrase, but if 30% of all games are indeed lost on the first hand or deal, then, since I do save my played games against the computer, I should be able to "shuffle" or randomize the order of say some number of deals (let's say Deals One through Six) of perhaps 20,000 of my archived games, and then three out of ten times, you should be able to tell me which one of those Six Deals was actually FIRST in the game. It would mean that there is something players do that is discernably different during the very first deal of a game. At the end of a game, I don't think the losing (or winning) side or player gets to pick which one of the deals "lost" (or "won") a particular game, just like an investment in which you "double your money" you cannot "point to" the particular dollar that was responsible for that growth. Investors who understand math are fond of saying, especially to gamblers: "Money has no memory." And similarly, in a game like Cribbage, the pegs probably have no idea of which deal "won" or "lost" a particular game; and even if they did, they probably wouldn't tell us! In the same line of reasoning, you cannot say that a specific hand score during a specific deal "predicted" the score of the deal that follows or precedes it. Humans are nostalgic and superstitious: we like to say that the touchdown before halftime "won" the game, when that can ONLY be the case if no other touchdowns were scored! In a basketball game that is won 78-to-77, the first free throw of the game helped win just as much as the last, but we don't call that first bucket a "buzzer beater"! Now, psychologically, we might say that a Cribbage player who does poorly during the first deal, for any number of many various reasons, might be affected throughout the remainder of that game, and even the games that follow it for the rest of the night. A player who gets a Twenty-Four-Point Hand on the first deal might play better (or worse) for the remainder of the evening! Also, a player who gets a Zero-Point Hand and Zero-Point Crib in Deal One might be upset and play poorly for a while, but it might also cause some players to increase the quality of their subsequent play. But to say which particular deal in a sequence has any more effect than any other deal is tantamount looking at an archery target, and inferring that the shots that are closer to the bullseye were sequentially last (or first). You cannot say, "Look, she started out missing by ten inches, and then each shot got closer!" What you might do is see a target with awful results, and three out of ten arrows missing, and infer that, "It appears that she shot so poorly, that it maybe has caused her to later miss the target!" or, "She missed a few, so her later results, while better, were still poor." But you really don't know the sequence of which arrow was shot when, not unless you watched her shoot; and I would contend that other than possibly having the outcome of a poor deal affect a player later in a psychological way, that there's probably no way you could look at all the deals of a game if they were not in their original order, and then pick which one was the first deal, and do so any more reliably than someone choosing from amongst them randomly.
MiketheExpert says: Yes, I agree it is hard to "isolate" any decision you make and attribute THIS solely to the fact which causes us to win or lose, there are "unmeasurable or intangible" effects I suppose that can influence, but assuming you are not swayed through emotion by the outcome of any specific event, then it is the net CUMULATIVE effect of all your choices which probably does account for this "3/10" being won or lost. I think it is a catchy phrase to say 3/10 are "lost" on the first hand, but it is probably more accurate to see that 3/10 are won or lost, STARTING from the first hand of the game.
wetbomb
44 votes

Joined: April 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 7:26 AM
Maybe not the right choice, but the cut makes it look pretty smart.
winesteward48
376 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 8:17 AM
When a choice looks good until it doesn't. Can we wail until the cut to decide what to discard?
MiketheExpert says: That's what I was doing, "wailing" before the cut, lol.
jmath714
1239 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Thursday 9:11 AM
To me, this depends on opponent a bit also. If I’m playing a great player, I might opt for a more risky throw. Against an opponent I think a little less of, I’m definitely going more conservative.

When in doubt, I’m going to opt for caution on first street. Hopefully we all can agree if needing a skunk, we’d opt for a more aggressive line.
dec
5831 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 11:40 AM
hey two of two each suited. Defense early. dec
Coeurdelion
5104 votes

Joined: October 2007

Thursday 2:36 PM
I think it's between 2-7-7-7 (3-3) and 2-3-3-7 (7-7) and perhaps 3-3-7-7 (2-7H):

2-7-7-7: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -½pt

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.14) = -2¾pts

3-3-7-7: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

Potential:

2-7-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 6666, 7, 8888 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 12pts with AAAA, 6666, 7, 8888 = 13 cuts.

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 7 + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

3-3-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 5555, 7, 8888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/12pts with 222, 33, 5555, 7, 8888 = 14 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is 18pts so I'll play Offense and try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-3-3-7 will peg best with three low cards and a middle card.

Summary:

2-7-7-7 is best for starting value by ½pt over 3-3-7-7. However 2-3-3-7 has guaranteed improvement and 34 cuts for 8-12pts plus it should peg much better. Will it make up the 2¼pt deficit on 2-7-7-7. I think it may so I'll risk the 7D-7H.
HalscribCLX
4829 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 2:42 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-3-7____8.00+2.41+(-6.42)=3.99____29.3____24.2
3-3-7-7C___5.91+1.15+(-4.18)=2.88____20.9____21.6
2-7-7-7____7.83+1.02+(-6.24)=2.61____23.4____20.5

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-3-7_______42.2____51.5
3-3-7-7C______43.3____56.3
2-7-7-7_______40.6____54.1

2-3-3-7 is best for expected averages by 1.11pts and is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7D-7H keeping the club fake flush.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 3C and play Offense.
fentesk says: Looks like HAL (or his avatar) is saying this one is decided by which is the best offensive pegging hand and (for the top choices) that's mainly what matters.
MiketheExpert says: Yes, as I expected, as I knew HAL would be choosing an "offense" strategy on first deal, and it would be a matter of "our pegs" making the difference (although I did not foresee almost a 1.3 point difference between the next best (3-3-7-7), and is in fact the reason why the "total" points is higher by 1.11. Defense or even optimal strategies might produce a different result, though doubt we would get to see that evaluation on first deal.
Ras2829
4657 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 9:59 PM
Choosing offense, the potential hand score of 2-3-3-7 wipes out the larger crib provided by 7-7 discard. Retaining three cards of high pegging value (2/3) and one of moderate pegging value (7), adds to the advantage as well. For those who might be interested Cribbage Prof (Hal Mueller's final hurrah) shows holding 2-3-3-7 to have a slight edge if choosing defense as well. Both 2-3-3-7 and 3-3-7-7 are in negative territory if choosing defense with the former at -1.07 and the latter at -1.14. Will lead the trey of clubs and take pegs as offered.