November 29, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
48*-60  ?
38%
19%
14%
14%
10%
0%
0%
Total votes: 262
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:11 AM
The flush was nearly entertained but went for the bigger bang possibilities with the crib. dec
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:15 AM
5-6-7-?, the flush or J-5 discard all seem reasonable.
Eolus619 says: Challenging puzzle today James500..well done today is survive and advance or go home for USA!
Eolus619 says: and also Wales vs. England!
ZulwarnGames says: I'm glad I pick the same as you! Makes me think I'm not too far off! People are more likely to throw 10s than a 7 or 8 too, so the J-5 meshes well.
scottcrib
1633 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:00 AM
If the flush had let me throw points to my crib, then it would have been more tempting. As is, I went for greater combined value today.

Am I going to see any of you this weekend in VaBeach?
mrob2199 says: Hey Scott-Kendra and I will be down late Friday afternoon
scottcrib says: Sounds good!
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:03 AM
Nice puzzle James…lots of options. Today I’ll opt to go with the 5J to my crib. I’ve always liked the 2679 hand…I seem to cut well to this hand. Like the pegging possibilities also.
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:27 AM
With the consensus today, 5J the 3rd best overall throw. Not a chip shot though, 2567 and 5679 are assured to turn into at least 7 points. Flush is held back by the often-disappointing 79 discard. Hope for the QK from the opponent.
mrob2199
1432 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:06 AM
Another close call today-like the flush for the pegging value of the 56 and the potential bingo cut of a 7-a 4 cut fits pretty nicely as well
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:12 AM
Ooof, I didn't see the flush this morning -- a sign that I need more coffee.
Gougie00
5727 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:33 AM
Kind of surprised no one took the obvious route. I might learn something else new today.
dph says: I was happy to make the same choice (and like the cut that we got).
Eolus619
1339 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:41 AM
Board position..yikes..Pone wil most likely deal first from 70 which is a critical CPZ par hole. What to do with the five? I am a bit uncomfortable speaking on behalf of JQT and wasa. John would send the five to the crib I think e cause it is on the end of a run and wasa , i think, would flush. The flush gets cut help from all ranks except an Ace. I see three acceptable close call discard options. Today I pick the flush. ..although 7-9 is a weak discard.
Eolus619 says: The Dan/ Bruce counting puzzle today is the second most miscounted hand in cribbage…Q——- A-2-2-3 = 14
Eolus619 says: a bonus assignment if you chose to do it. Dan graciously has pointed out to me the 25 keeps that involve the 4 cards summing to 15. Of the 25, 14 include at least one Ace. I will start you two keeps..you figure out the other 12. 3-4-4-4 and A-2-6-6
Eolus619 says: just to be clear..four of the remaining 12 keeps have 2 Aces in the 4 cards.
MiketheExpert
1119 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:21 AM
Not a favorable score - defense is at a premium here, let us hope that pone does not have a backbreaker. I threw (5 J), because of the large difference in crib value, so I think this should overcome starting with the 6-pt flush and (7 9), but I can't argue too much with wanting to hold the flush. Both of these choices are quite superior to holding the run (5-6-7-?), which is not a good defensive hold.
MiketheExpert says: For extra credit: After the enjoyable 6 cut, what is the proper pegging sequence on a 7 or 8 lead by pone here?
Inushtuk1 says: The deuce? I don't want to get into a pegging war here. I want to keep him short of 70 as next Dealer. On the other hand, that deuce is my escape card. Hmm. Tough one. Mike.
MiketheExpert says: I would play the deuce over a 7 lead, and 15-2 the 8 lead, although it wouldn't surprise me to have some differing opinions. I do not want to get into a pegging war either, however as far as net gain is concerned, we are still a dozen points behind with pone right on target. So I may have to give up 3 to score 6 or 7, because there is no better option. You will notice that both of these choices become significantly easier if we had held the flush, but alas, we cannot defend every possibility.
MiketheExpert says: I think some will say the 9 is the correct play over the 7, as you can reply with a run of 4, or if pone pairs the 9, reply with the 6 for 31-2. But I am not satisfied with 2-2 or 4-3 here, and may attempt to hold pone short of 70 if possible, though this does not always work (especially when you are playing at cardjd where the average hand score is 12+ in many a game!)
wasa
3015 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:25 AM
Hi Eolus619. I'm very predictable - it pays to flush! Magic 11 with the 5-6, should peg better than the 2-6-7-9, tossing odd cards to our crib, including a key connector 7 - what's not to like?

I admit to pondering the 5-J due to it's power, but tables often give the J in our crib an extra 0.25 point, without realizing that a J in the hand is still good for his nobs. Cut means I have at least 11 points (10 plus at least 1 peg). I'm going aggressive to try and catch up a bit.
Inushtuk1
1484 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:15 AM
Because the (5-J) is so strong, and the (7-9) often disappoints. On the other hand, I did very well the other day with that same toss against my daughter. Great puzzle. Congrats to Gougie00 for being first with the correct discard yesterday. A lot of us learned something.
wasa says: I would debate the "correct" discard yesterday. The 5-9-T-J has the highest probability of winning the game by almost 5 percentage points. Are we playing to win? Granted, it does have the highest probability of losing too :-)
MiketheExpert says: My selection of (3 5 10 J) had the best "differential" between W/L% (with the "best results" being in L%), so from that perspective you could argue that any one of these 3 choices could be correct :-)
jmath714
1298 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:43 AM
I’m curious, would anyone consider 9-T if it were 25679T?
Inushtuk1 says: I would Jason.
Eolus619 says: hmmmm…Jason..with that hold retaining the seven provides a lot of options for earning points…cuts of 2,3 4,5,6,7,8,9 and all the Xs add points..plus a touching 9/10 to the crib..I like this approach
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:31 AM
It pays to flush and in this case, dealer retains the only four cards that break nine points in potential hand score. Actually 2-5-6-7 pegs better although that edge is not enough to offset the superior hand score of the flush. Choosing offense to include the pegging and will likely be choosing offense for the remainder of the game. See no reason for defense. My experience suggests that playing defense when down a dozen points will increase that deficit. Go for some pegs although will avoid pairs where the count would allow n/d to triple for six. Otherwise will play on the lead. and take pegs as offered.
Ras2829 says: All cards except three Aces add value to this flush. Is that 43/46?
Eolus619 says: Ras,,,fyi none of us are worried about your math skills !
scottcrib says: "dealer retains the only four cards that break nine points in potential hand score" - this is not correct; did you mean something else?
Ras2829 says: Hi scottcrib: No other 4 cards among these six reaches 8.5 points in potential value. The flush exceeds 9 points by a bit. Don't see anything wrong with that conclusion. If incorrect, you'll need to show me in what way that is so.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Scott: Perhaps you are referring to max hand score, while Ras is referring to the expected hand value. The flush is the only which breaks 9 pts, although as with today's cut (6), we have the benefit of scoring 10 on today's lucky cut!
scottcrib says: Yes, there are several hands that can score more than 9 points. I guess RAS is talking about average score?
MiketheExpert says: Hi Ras, curious as if you were in the opposite shoes here, and have advantage of pone being at 60-48*, would you be thinking more defense or offense? I would tend to see it a little more aggressive (it may depend on the hand that you were dealt, however), seeing as you may try to push to make it to hole 70 given the fact that dealer is already at hole 48, and has a good chance of dealing beyond hole 70 in two deals time. So the natural "opposite" would be defense being in the dealer's position, but it could work out that BOTH players may try to play in an aggressive fashion, not knowing what cards the other may hold.
Ras2829 says: Now I am confused. Post above in my display reads: "...in this case, dealer retains the only four cards that breaks nine points... Is that how it appears to others?
Ras2829 says: Hi MketheExpert. If were n/d at hole 60 would play an offense strategy to include the pegging and would be quite aggressive with 3rd Street CPZ (69-73). The deeper n/d could get into that zone the better. The chances to win increase dramatically when comparing hole 69 and 73.
Obscure
95 votes

Joined: September 2022
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:13 AM
Last week of classes here at university. Next week is finals week, and then I'm going back home for Christmas break until January 8th. Trying not to FREAK OUT because there's A LOT TO DO over the next few days! Anyways, here's CribEDGE's result for today:

Keep: Two of Clubs, Six of Clubs, Seven of Diamonds, Nine of Diamonds
Toss: Five of Clubs, Jack of Clubs
Worth: 4 / Bonus: 9

Maybe not the most popular hand according to the poll, but this hand definitely seems to be popular among my fellow commenters. That turn card helps this hand out nicely, too: a boost to 10 points in the hand! By my count, this is the 6th sensible selection in a row for CribEDGE. Let's keep this streak going!
bbaer1
3689 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:59 PM
All cuts help this hand.
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:23 PM
I think it's between the flush 2-5-6-J (7-9), 2-6-7-9 (5-J), 2-5-6-7 (9-J), 5-6-7-9 (2-J) and 5-6-7-J (2-9):

2-5-6-J: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 10¼pts

2-6-7-9: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

2-5-6-7: 5pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.97) = 9pts

5-6-7-9: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.84) = 8¾pts

5-6-7-J: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.71) = 8¾pts

Potential:

2-5-6-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/11pts with 222, 4444, 555, 777, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

2-6-7-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 19 cuts.

2-5-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/11/12pts with 222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts.

5-6-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts.

5-6-7-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We're 4pts past 2nd street positional hole and Pone only needs the average 10pts to reach 3rd street positional hole as Dealer. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

With a low card, a 5 and two middle cards I think 2-5-6-7 will peg best.

Summary:

2-6-7-9 has the best starting value by ¾pt over 2-5-6-J but the flush has 16 cuts for 10/11pts compared to 19 cuts for 7-10pts with 2-6-7-9 and although 2-5-6-7 has guaranteed improvement and 20 cuts for 8-12pts the flush has 42 cuts for improvement plus it has an extra 0.39pt. for a club cut. So I'll throw the suited 7-9.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:32 PM
At 48*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-5-6-J____9.07+(-2.02)+3.93=10.98____26.4____30.0
2-6-7-9____6.07+(-2.13)+6.88=10.82____24.9____29.6
2-5-6-7____8.46+(-2.00)+3.74=10.20____24.4____29.2
5-6-7-9____8.11+(-2.22)+3.66= 9.55____22.1____27.4
5-6-7-J____8.04+(-2.17)+3.55= 9.42____21.9____26.6

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
2-5-6-J________51.4____56.7
2-6-7-9________50.4____57.1
2-5-6-7________50.7____57.7
5-6-7-9________51.0____60.0
5-6-7-J________52.2____61.2

2-5-6-J is best for expected averages by a slim 0.04pt. over 2-6-7-9 but is also best for Win % although it is very slightly higher for Loss %s. So I'll select the 7-9 to discard.

After the 6D cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829 says: As you may have noted over time, RAS chooses offense many times when HalscribCLX chooses defense. That is a constant and consistent difference in our playing styles. With Hal Mueller's tutorial programs (Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof) played at the Life master level of difficulty, alternate deals, and no programmed error rate, I win 51-52% in 1,000 game series. Primary reason is that I out-peg the cribbot as n/d and tend to score slightly larger hands when not dealing. Our game stats as dealer tend to be mirror images.