November 30, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
69*-69  ?
40%
24%
15%
8%
6%
3%
1%
Total votes: 257
scottcribHand from eCrib tonight.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:06 AM
Always optimistic about 6-7 to my crib, and every cut is helpful. Could've started with four points though with some combination of 4-4-7-?
Interesting puzzle.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:19 AM
What no five cut here ? IHonestly I discard like in a REAL game. Position, pegging potential and opponent if possible. I believe in defense pegging here still with the double elevens. Maybe a three or a two discard in the crib. Balance attack here. dec
Eolus619 says: morning dec...do you beleave playing cribbage solitaire is a good way for a player to improve their discarding and hand counting skills? or should it just be viewed as a fun way to pass some time?
dec says: Yes it would improve. Discarding depends on situations in games and not thinking about what your hand count would help focus more on pegging and playing board positions. dec
Eolus619 says: got it..TY!
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:53 AM
Like the plethora of cuts that will help somewhere here-the 8 cut would be most welcome
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:10 AM
Was tempted to toss 67, because a face is more likely to be the starter.

Nice teaching puzzles this week.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:54 AM
I wanted to keep a-4-4 together and liked the magic 11, honestly didn't notice that a-2-4-4 improves on every cut. Total offense at this position.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:56 AM
scottcrib
1635 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:34 AM
I see three very good options. I went this way during the game.
bbaer1 says: With you Scott. Very interesting puzzle.
Eolus619 says: Scott..yoir submission today is, imo, one of the better examples of why understanding board position is a very valuable tool. Today the critical decisions about playing on or off are driven by what is more important…current dealer reaching 111+ and counting first or slowing current Pone to be under 105 when he/she is dealing.
MiketheExpert
1121 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:45 AM
This hand has guaranteed improvement on the cut, a double-5 combo in the hand, great pegging value cards, and a strong discard of (6 7) into the crib to boot. What's not to like about it?
MiketheExpert says: There are also qualities about the unpopular (thus far) keep of (A 2 6 7) that I like. I think that it could often score a HIGHER number of pegging points, and only the 4's and face cards fail to improve (of which you have thrown a pair of 4's in the crib). It is the lack of improvement from 2 pts on any face card cut that is stopping me here.
MiketheExpert says: With the 7 cut today, the above could very well work out as the BEST option.
bbaer1
3691 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:49 AM
With no ten-cards being dealt to me, I went this way with the key connector 7 going into my crib.
Eolus619
1341 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:58 AM
I agree with Gougie00 about educational puzzles this week and Scott’s adds to the list. I usually try to start with max points in the hand ..however since every cut helps this keep I have not technically sacrificed points. I agree with James500..and JQT!…there is reason to be optimistic about a 6-7 toss. This is a very tight game..little room for missing by either player ..if the averages hold up 4th street looks like 111-105*
Eolus619 says: Two often miscounted hands 9------A-2-3-3=14 and 5----2-3-4-4=12 The chances for miscounting increase when the same card can be used two or three times to create points..so be alert
Inushtuk1
1486 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:27 AM
Critical board position. Keep the two card eleven. The problem with the three, and four card elevens is when they work, Pone has stolen last card from you. Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: And if the 7-4 eleven works, we have an excellent chance to trap a 5.
scottcrib says: Maybe pone keeps X-X-X-5 and tosses you A-3. That would be nice!
Inushtuk1 says: Like MLK; I have a dream. :-)
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:45 AM
Like the 8 points with a face-card cut, and especially the 14 with a 5. A446 can be interesting for the pegging if we can play the ace on a face-card lead.
winesteward48
834 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:29 AM
Has anyone tried a game where the cut is made before the discard? It would have been nice to know a 7 was coming before making this choice.
wasa
3017 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:49 AM
Wanted to keep the A-4-4. 6 or 7 fits, but rather the 7 in my crib
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:57 PM
With opponent at my shoulder will choose defense to include the pegging. These four cards have such superior hand score potential with very small difference in crib values or peg avoidance. The greater hand score moves A-4-4-6 to the fore very convincingly. Will play off the lead although would pair a four spot if led and 15-2 a 9 lead. Not much else to offer. Otherwise play off!
MiketheExpert says: Strangely enough Ras, I appreciate the defensive style including pegging, but today I was not thinking defense at this position! :-)
MiketheExpert says: Pone is on pace to reach hole 95, however in 2 hands time, so I think being somewhat cautious could be necessary, so it isn't full steam ahead, either.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: N/d of this hand needs 26 points over the next two hands to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99). If I can minimize n/d pegs this hand and minimize pegs and crib scored on upcoming deal, just might see opponent with the deck at hole 90-92. Don't need a miracle to make that happen; so will be stingy on pegs given and crib discard next hand. You can choose offense or defense here- not much difference. If I were at hole 72 or better, would have chosen offense as moving down the board would be the wisest choice could make.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:22 PM
I think it's between 4-4-6-7 (A-2), A-2-6-7 (4-4) and A-4-4-6 (2-7):

4-4-6-7: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 8¼pts

A-2-6-7: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 7¾pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

Potential:

4-4-6-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/12/16pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts.

A-2-6-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 8888 = 18 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 3rd street positional hole and so is Pone. However they're 17pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg best with 3 low cards and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-4-6-7 is best for starting value by ¼pt over A-4-4-6 but the latter has many more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts compared with 13 cuts for 8-16pts with 4-4-6-7. Also I think A-4-4-6 will peg better so I'll throw the 2-7.
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Did you intend for HalscribCLX analysis to be an exact copy of your work this day?
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:24 PM
I think it's between 4-4-6-7 (A-2), A-2-6-7 (4-4) and A-4-4-6 (2-7):

4-4-6-7: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 8¼pts

A-2-6-7: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 7¾pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

Potential:

4-4-6-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/12/16pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts.

A-2-6-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 8888 = 18 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 3rd street positional hole and so is Pone. However they're 17pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg best with 3 low cards and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-4-6-7 is best for starting value by ¼pt over A-4-4-6 but the latter has many more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts compared with 13 cuts for 8-16pts with 4-4-6-7. Also I think A-4-4-6 will peg better so I'll throw the 2-7.
scottcrib says: I'm surprised that about half the voters split the A-4-4 combo.
Inushtuk1 says: Hey Scott. I'm still waiting for Halscrib's expected averages, and win %'s. I think the expected averages will definitly favour your choice. But the win %'s will favour my choice.
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:24 PM
Thanks for the analysis! I'll change my way of thinking... eventually.
Tigger23505
163 votes

Joined: October 2022
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:04 PM
Not sure I like being way outside the consensus on this one. I can see the value of A 2 in the crib. The math says I'm wrong, and it never pays to bet against the house. Then again when you're playing against a person. Psychology becomes a factor too. Especially, never interrupt a person while they are making a mistake.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:16 PM
The position may look close, but we must NOT allow the ostensible idea of Dealer Advantage to cloud our perceptions.

Specifically, Pone is ALREADY (and quite easily) within Ten Holes of reaching the Third Street Par Hole 70, a position which we have YET TO ACHIEVE!

In such instances, I believe it's wise to LET THE CARDS DICTATE whether we adopt an Offensive or a Defensive Posture.

We'll likely get slightly better Crib and Pegging if we Toss (6 7), but we'll probably get much better "Pin Action" in our Hand if we Toss (2 7).

After the 7 Card Cut, we now have just Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for a fair Crib. We're likely running 'short' of our target, so it becomes vital to try to maintain pace with our Opponent. In these situations, we should seek to peg carefully and yet opportunistically.