December 2, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by mrob2199
0*-0  ?
37%
25%
12%
8%
5%
5%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 238
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:25 AM
9-5 makes sense, but I'll try 9-J.
Eolus619 says: James500…Germany can’t advance and Mexico goes home losing the 7th tie breaker leaving Poland to advance..fewest yellow cards…yikes .AND Italy doesn’t even get in the tournament. Good soccer luck to England!
Gougie00 says: Most Americans cannot name a single US soccer player. I am one of them. I do know that either Brazil or Argentina ends up in the Finals every time.
james500 says: Thanks for the words of encouragement Bruce. Senegal should be beatable, but after that I expect to face France who will pose a much sterner test. Mbappe, Griezman and Giroud are looking like a pretty good combo up front. You may well be right Greg, it's looking like it'll be Brazil v Argentina in one of the semi-finals, so one of them will have to make it through. The Dutch may have something to say about it though.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:30 AM
Many ways to throw 'Five' (or cards that 'add up' to Five) as in: Toss (5 9), Toss (5 J), Toss (5 K), or Toss (A 4), as well as Toss (9 J), a clever Dealer Discard idea here.

I've always liked Toss (5 9) from this construct, since not only do we get a "real" 5 Card into our Crib, but we also have a W-I-D-E variety of Pegging Cards.

After the 6h Cut Card, we now still have Four Points in our Hand, with prospects for a good Crib.
Eolus619 says: JQT..do you dump the lone Ace asap ?
JQT says: The Lone Ace is not quite as much of a liability when we are the Dealer, but can still cause trouble. On a Middle Card Lead, unloading the Ace seems prudent. But on a Ten or King Lead, I like to play the King and either risk the PAIR or dodge the PAIR (play the alternate card) and try to sneak the Ace in for (31=2). On a Jack or Queen Lead, maybe just unload the Ace, same as after Middle Card, although with Jack in Hand, I will occasionally put a King on a Queen Lead! Remember, we are at (0*-0) here, so we are just beginning to get into the head of our Opponent. It's always a psychological "edge" if we can "get away with" something early on in a game, especially against a new or "fresh" Opponent!
Eolus619 says: Thx for your insight John
Eolus619 says: and we all can use a cheerful good morning..maybe the best movie dance scene ever https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCSUsF_YEe0
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. On a K lead, did you mean you would pair it, risking pairs royal? Or did you mean you would play the J, risking 3 points? Best wishes my friend.
HfxKen says: On a King lead, play a ten. On a 10 lead, play a king
Inushtuk1 says: Yes, that makes sense Ken.
JQT says: Ken has it right. And if you have no Ten, it's usually ok to PAIR a High Card especially if you have the Ace for (31-2).
MiketheExpert says: Best percentage play, since there are only 2 ways he can respond to score 6, and at least we have the A for (31-2) to score 4. There is also a good chance we can score 4-0 on the first exchange. If we played J over K, or K over J, now he would have 7 scoring responses for 3 or 2 points, while we would only be able to rebut with 2 for 31-2.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks guys. I get the lone Ace on a mid card lead. But pairing a K here makes no sense to me at 0*-0. Here I would use the small end of the Magic Eleven. That K is usually coming from a pair. It may be the percentage play, but you would't play a lone 7 on an Ace lead would you at 0*-0?
MiketheExpert
1094 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 4:36 AM
As opening dealer, will almost always try to get this 5 in the crib. (A 4) and (9 J) may be other options to consider, but I'm not too fond of throwing (A 4) and would rather keep that in my hand for the X cuts and the pegging. (9 J) if I'm feeling frisky, although it is a much weaker throw than any with a 5, it still sometimes catches good luck by providing a J and leaving the best room for growth in the hand, as evidenced by the 6 cut today. Even without the cut help in HAND, we still have prospects for an above average to good crib. Defense to the lead.
MiketheExpert says: Willing to risk the pairing of a J or K lead in case pone triples, but would rather not give up one on the opening deal. I wouldn't argue vehemently with one who felt better about responding with the A here.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:39 AM
Slow learner? I still think A4 is the way to go
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:08 AM
A4 is looking for face cards and we can hold with 2 in the hand (have heard that phrase from a certain wise player). 59 to the crib somewhat more versatile.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Friday 6:14 AM
Nice puzzle Rob. I hate hate hate A4JK…but I think I learned on here the 59 is better than A4 I’m my crib.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 6:30 AM
With only 6 known points (plus our “go”) we need to play offensively to protect as much of our surplus as possible.
Eolus619
1313 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 7:09 AM
Challenging puzzle Rob!. I am going to go with, when possible , send a five to own crib. The cut help is limited A,4,5 and Xs. Interesting ..crib average for A-4 and 5-9 are the same.
sterno
443 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Friday 7:15 AM
I feel the 4-1 will peg better than the 5-9. As noted above both sets have the same ranking in a crib.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 7:53 AM
I'm predictable. Want the 5 in my crib. Schell has A-4 and 5-9 both at 5.43 points but I prefer the A-4 in my hand and the "real" 5 in my crib.
GT25Ump
285 votes

Joined: August 2016

 
 
 
Friday 8:32 AM
Surprised that there are more than two options getting votes. You just have to put either the A-4 or the 5 in the crib, seriously. Then, for me to help break the tie, I feel more comfortable with the A-4 for pegging than the 5-9.
winesteward48
813 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 9:50 AM
I am going along with the "deck" of responders.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:59 AM
The A-4 is a more effective pegger. A ten cut might aid crib more. dec
Obscure
95 votes

Joined: September 2022

 
 
 
Friday 12:56 PM
Oh good grief. The streak has been broken! Just when CribEDGE had made 7 sensible choices in a row, it throws out a real curveball. Take a look at this wackiness!

Keep: Ace of Clubs, Four of Diamonds, Nine of Spades, King of Hearts
Toss: Five of Spades, Jack of Diamonds
Worth: 2 / Bonus: 12

That bonus score seems a little too high... methinks something went a little wrong and I need to modify something. I'll do a little tinkering with the logic and inspecting its internal results, and I'll report back tomorrow if I've made any changes.

Then again... maybe the Nine could be useful in pegging???
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 2:52 PM
It looked like Rob wanted me to choose between keeping two gappers, and the 5 in my hand; but no Magic Eleven; or one gapper and the Magic Eleven. In a close call. I keep the Magic Eleven, per Colvert, and I avoid the five card trap. I think (A-4) is slightly best for expected averages *before* you factor in Pone's pegs. This is because of the extra chance to cut into a run I suspect. But once you factor in Pone's pegs, (5-9) will be best. I will play defense to the lead. But I may be guilty of being too defensive at 0*-0.
Jazzselke says: Thanks for the nice compliment yesterday Mike.
Inushtuk1 says: You're welcome Dan.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 4:05 PM
I'll look at 5-9-J-K (A-4), A-4-J-K (5-9) and A-4-5-K (9-J):

5-9-J-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-4-J-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-4-5-K: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.97) = 8pts

Potential:

5-9-J-K: Improves with AAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10pts with 555 + 14xXs = 17 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-4-J-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 19 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-4-5-K: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 31 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

With 2 low cards, a 5 and a high card I think A-4-5-K will peg best.

Summary:

5-9-J-K and A-4-J-K are both 1¼pts better than A-4-5-K but the latter has more cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 7-10pts compared with 17 and 19 cuts for 5-9-J-K and A-4-J-K respectively. Plus both these have approx. an extra ¼pt for a diamond cut. Even so with the better potential and better pegging I think I'll throw the 9-J.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:09 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-J-K____6.41+(-1.96)+5.33=9.78____34.4____48.6
5-9-J-K____6.46+(-2.07)+5.23=9.62____35.2____48.4
A-4-9-J____4.63+(-1.96)+6.50=9.17____33.4____47.1
A-4-5-K____7.09+(-1.91)+3.88=9.06____34.3____47.3

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-J-K_______24.9____25.0
5-9-J-K_______26.3____25.7
A-4-9-J_______26.0____26.7
A-4-5-K_______27.0____26.8

A-4-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.16pt. and although 5-9-J-K is very slightly better for Win %s A-4-J-K is also slightly lower for Loss %s so I'll select 5-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:48 PM
If choosing defense to include the pegging, holding A-4-J-K has the edge Defense it is as dealer of opening hand in game. HalscribCLX shows the numbers directly above. Play the Ace on a X-lead, saving J-K for later for possible pairing and closing the count at 31 for 2. Would play off a Jack or King if led rather than pair. If choosing offense somewhere else on the board, the choice would shift to holding A-4-5-K. Be flexible enough to accommodate the changes necessary dependent on choice of strategy. The cards to retain and discard will be the same for offense or defense in about 65% of the cases. The opening hand for dealer is defense since dealer has 50% chance to win game if only scoring 7 points. Don't give away the dealer advantage on first hand of game with some reckless pegging.
Ras2829 says: Yes the 5-9 has the higher crib average based on my empirical data with 5.434 (279) 21/91 and A-4 5.416 (1,771) 22/91. Number in parentheses is number of times discarded to own crib and results recorded in live play. Results were not recorded if playing with an inferior player.