Monday 3:43 AM

Ace lead.

   

Monday 5:24 AM

Ace lead.

   

Monday 5:39 AM

Tough call today. Few or no cuts to go out with any keep, more will get us toward peg-out range. But with dealer 18 points out, giving any points to him is risky, and with a bit of luck he could even end up short to count out next hand.

Realistically, though, dealer will get into good position to count out next hand even with a balk. So my best path to victory is to peg out next hand as dealer or count out here on a lucky cut. I’ll risk the AA, as this has the most cuts for 10+ points.

Did seriously consider the more defensive AQ, which leaves a pretty good hand. I just don’t think the balk has enough value with dealer so far down the board. Didn't think the pegging value would bridge the gap, but may well be wrong. Would lead the Q to hopefully pair a five response.

   

Monday 6:03 AM

I feel confident that I might peg at least four here. Defense hoping for 118 here or more. dec

   

Monday 6:16 AM

Cuts for 12 and 14, plus great pegging possibilities. Hopefully out or close

   

Monday 6:19 AM

We are Pone in a tight Endgame Battle, and while we need Sixteen Points to reach the Finish Line (or Six Holes above Pone average), the Dealer needs only Eighteen Points to defeat us (about Two Holes above Dealer average). Let's do an analysis of the Relative Position BEFORE we even look at our cards.

The crux of the problem we face today can be understood if we look at where "average" progress shall position us for the (hopefully) next deal: Our Opponent will then become Pone at an average placement of Hole 119 (needing Two Points to WIN), while we shall be Next Dealer at about Hole 117 (needing Four Holes as the Next Dealer to WIN). The position "feels" close to equal, but I don't believe we have any advantage, and before looking at our cards, we probably stand at a disadvantage today.

I think we may have two different ways to prevail in this position: If we can get a great Hand and/or combined Hand and Pegging total of Sixteen Points, we could WIN via First Hand Show, or; if we don't allow our Opponent too much "help" during this deal, there may be a Next Deal during which we could peg out as Next Dealer.

Therefore, it becomes a much easier problem to consider, now that we understand the Relative Position, and the ramifications as well as our needs and our objectives. Unless we are dealt a very good chance to reach those Sixteen Points needed, we should attempt to "spike" the Dealer's Crib and then try to peg out as the Next Dealer.

Our strongest Hand after we might Keep (4 5 6 Q) and Toss (A A) only has about Nine Cuts (444, 555, 666) that yield Fourteen Points or more, and 9 DIV 46 equals 0.196 or less than a 20% shot. Meanwhile, Toss (A A) is 'adding fuel' to the Enemy Crib at a time when we absolutely cannot afford to do so, unless there is no other option.

It's important that we stress the last part of the previous idea: If we cannot stop the Dealer from going out ANYWAY, that 20% figure of obtaining a potentially-winning Cut Card may be the best thing we have going for us. And yet, if we study the Relative Position carefully, it would seem that our odds of winning should be closer to 50%. It's vital that we made this initial assessment BEFORE we began to consider our cards!

The average Dealer Pegging is about 3.5 points, so let's chart Hole 117 as a viable "target" by the completion of this deal. That means we need a Hand that contains around a Dozen Points. If we Keep (A 4 5 6) and Toss (A Q), now we have AT LEAST those same Nine Cuts (444, 555, 666) we looked at previously, and in this case, these yield a Dozen Points or more, our tentative goal. And while we only start with Five Points, all but Four Cuts (2222) appear to add at least Two Points to this Hand.

I'm almost afraid to say it, but now comes the tricky part: Can we RELIABLY peg with this normally-excellent Pegging Hand in this Relative Position? It's easy to dismiss the strength of our pegging prospects today, because we may initially just assume that the Dealer will be able to "dodge" our tactics. But at Hole 103, we have what's called a "Hungry Dealer," as our Opponent cannot afford to retain a defensive pegging hand and ignore the scoring potential! 🐺

This last theme is often overlooked by many players: we must try as best we can to put ourselves into the shoes or "pegs" of the other player! I think we should be able to peg a handful of points against MANY of the Dealer Hands that WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE held in this position. And while it may be tempting to "swing for the fences" and Toss (A A), I think "Patience Often Pays" in Cribbage. ⚾

What is nearly impossible to do is to calculate (during a real, live game) just what percentage of the time that Toss (A Q) will help us "turn the tables" and defeat our Opponent, but that's not really what we need to ascertain in order to make the proper decision. We merely need to sense, or predict, or decide (or GUESS!) if Toss (A Q) can allow us to prevail GREATER THAN 20% OF THE TIME. And I believe the answer is an emphatic: "Yes!"

It's not likely to be anywhere near 50% and yet I am fairly certain that our odds of winning after Toss (A Q) shall easily exceed 20%, so let's Toss (A Q) today, off-suited of course.

After the Ten "T" Card Cut, we now have Nine Points in our Hand, and we would just love to peg more than Three Holes! We shall lead our Ace, since it gives us Thirty-One Dealer Replies (444, 555, 666, 8888, 9999, TTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) that we can score upon immediately. If the Dealer holds all Ten (or "X") Cards, we shall peg Six Holes and out-peg the Dealer Six-to-One! Let it be so!

We should be cognizant that, if and once we peg Four Holes, we shall have shifted our odds of pegging out Next Deal to be greater than 50%, providing that our Dealer Opponent does not go out via the Crib. But should we "let up on the gas" once we peg a few holes? I don't think so: We want to STAY ON OFFENSE! 🚀

This Pegging Battle will very rarely, if ever, translate to having to switch to DEFENSE mode once we hopefully can navigate those Four Holes, because if we did then 'give up' a Run, it's likely that in doing so, we should obtain one ourselves, and thus possibly WIN by completion of this deal. Stay aggressive, and on the OFFENSE! And for Heaven's Sake: Try to keep it under one thousand words!

   

Monday 6:40 AM

I am with the herd this morning. A three card straight with benefits is too hard to break up this morning (or any mornng).

   

Monday 7:11 AM

On offense, this is one of my favourite pegging hands as pone, and usually makes up for the initial 2-point sacrifice. No contest today, with dealer at hole 103, and with the face cut bringing me to 9, I will try my best to peg 4 as safely as possible. I will still lead the A, however I have a small fear that with my remaining run I could get trapped for a score. If pegging starts (A-5), I'll have to pair the 5, and be cognizant of the fact that if he has a 2nd five allowing him to score 6 pts on the pegging, I would likely be doomed anyway following the Q cut.

   

Monday 7:21 AM

All the reasonable reasons for holding this keep have been explained above. At 105-103* , I can hear Bob Dylan singing..” it’s not dark yet but it’s gettin’ there”

   

Monday 8:01 AM

Debated tossing the A-A with fingers crossed for a 5 cut (for a nice 14 points) or a 4 or 6 for 12 points. But the A-A goes too well with the 2-3 my opponent loves tossing into their crib. Full defence with 6-Q breaks up my hand too much (although, would you call A-A-4-5 "triple nickels"?)

   

Monday 8:15 AM

A456 the best pone pegging hand in cribbage-lead the A and let’s see if we can get at least 3 or 4 pegging points-the AQ discard with us holing both an A and a 4 should br relatively safe

   

Monday 9:15 AM

It is early in California and my mental calculator was in "sleep" mode. I thought about tossing Q-A but, somehow thought this keep would result in more points. Not really. Oops.

   

Monday 10:15 AM

Running with the pack this afternoon!

   

Monday 12:41 PM

I'll compare AS-4-5-6 (AH-Q) and 4-5-6-Q (A-A) and perhaps A-A-4-5 (6-Q):

AS-4-5-6: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = +½pt

4-5-6-Q: 7pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.02) = +1pt

A-A-4-5: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.22) = -2¼pts

Potential:

AS-4-5-6: Improves with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts.

4-5-6-Q: Improves with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 12 cuts.

A-A-4-5: Improves with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts.

Position:

We need 16pts to go out as Pone while Dealer only needs 18pts; just two above average. So as it's odds on that we won't go out this deal I'll try to keep Dealer short and hope to peg out as Dealer next time; unless we can hit 14/16pts with the cut.

Pegging:

A-4-5-6 should peg the best with two low cards, a 6 and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-5-6-Q has the best starting value by ½pt but AS-4-5-6 has more cuts for improvement and 32 cuts for 8-14pts compared with 12 cuts for 11-16pts with 4-5-6-Q. Also AS-4-5-6 avoids the risky A-A throw and it should peg better. So I'll throw the unsuited A-Q.

   

Monday 3:06 PM

At 105-103* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 %
AS-4-5-6___8.89+2.22+(-4.01)=7.10____17.7____31.6
4-5-6-Q____9.72+1.13+(-5.76)=5.09____15.1____19.1
A-A-4-5____6.07+2.20+(-4.12)=4.15_____0.5____11.1

Offense______L1 %____L2 %
AS-4-5-6______24.7____59.5
4-5-6-Q_______35.4____71.6
A-A-4-5_______24.9____82.3

AS-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 2.01pts and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select AH-Q to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
A_____________________2.75
6_____________________2.15
4_____________________2.11
5_____________________1.83

   

Monday 10:02 PM

Holding A-4-5-6 provides one of the finest pegging hands for n/d, choosing offense to include the pegging with dealer at 103 and counting first next deal. Lead the Ace and take any pegs offered.The !-4-5-6 and 2-3-4-6 are the two best n/d hands to peg often scoring the 15-2 and 31. After scoirn those four pegs, the remaining five spot will often score another two pegs. Out pegging dealer 6-1 is an opportunity that should seldom be missed in this wonderful game. Although average number of pegs scored by nd/ break little more than two. By the way, look for opportunities to hold A-4-5-6 when non-dealer. There are a lot of them, and it often offers a much lower scoring discard. In hands such as A-4-5-6-10-K, A-4-5-6-9-K, A-4-5-6-9-Q, A-4-5-6-8-Q/K, or similar toss the low scoring discards and retain these fine pegging cards.