November 28, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by goninnygo
104-100*  ?
78%
78%
6%
6%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 219
goninnygoAfter 2 two (10sec) time warnings I panicked-did I overthink it?
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (311 votes)

Thursday 3:46 AM
Dealer is likely to go out next hand even if I score a 12-count hand (66668888 cuts) here; slight chance with a 14-count hand (AA cuts) if I can peg 3. I will keep my best melding (and pegging?) hand and take my very slim chance to cut one of the remaining 7's for the win. The alternate is to pitch A-A, A-4 or A-5, all of which max out at a 12-count hand (and a loss). Any pitch I make puts points in the crib. Starter is a great disappointment, but I did reduce the spread point difference.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1555 votes)

Thursday 4:09 AM
Full speed ahead here
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4165 votes)

Thursday 4:54 AM
"All in", again.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6630 votes)

Thursday 5:01 AM
I would have been playing the first of my aces on the fourth play by then. Spread points again or maybe not ? dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5982 votes)

Thursday 6:01 AM
picture me curling my nose and tossing the 4-5. Keeping the sure 8 points. Lead a 7.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4333 votes)

Thursday 6:02 AM
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4328 votes)

Thursday 6:17 AM
Tuesday, we were Pone at (104-110*), and today we are once again at the same score as Pone, but with a Dealer at Hole 100 instead of Hole 110, and today we are holding a different arrangement. 🎭

Do we Toss (4 5), or do we decide upon some other DEFENSIVE two cards such as Toss (4 7)? 🦃

Let's Toss (4 7) today and hedge our bets. 🥒 🥑 🍒

After the Deuce Cut, we now have Six Points in our Hand, and hopefully we didn't energize the Dealer's Crib. Let's lead an Ace from our 'All Red Hand' and try to DEFEND. 🥀
JQT says: The (A A 7 7) idea will likely work with Four Cuts or about 9% of the time, but I'm hoping that my idea, which requires our Opponent to 'come up short' of par, will happen slightly more often than 9% of the time. 🤞🏻
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5384 votes)

Thursday 6:21 AM
The best response to this puzzle may be :Go ninnygo!!!
Eolus619 says: A very happy Thanksgiving to you Ras and your family..The cribbage community is blessed to have you and your “treasure” of evidence. ( including the scant evidence all the best ❗️🤞🙏
RedTailRogue

Joined: December 2021 (964 votes)

Thursday 6:44 AM
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Ras2829 says: Hi RedTailRogue: Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (242 votes)

Thursday 6:49 AM
Ditto!
goninnygo

Joined: August 2024 (74 votes)

Thursday 7:29 AM
Hi all-I think I miss entered the puzzle. It was AA 55 77. I dropped the fives… does that change anyone’s strategy?
Eolus619 says: Morning..opinions will vary.….The 5s can easily turn into 9+ points in the crib. My choice is defense & A-7… but a pair of Aces or A-5 may be the choice of others. Current dealer has a 75% chance to earn 12 points so @ 112 and then counting first next hand for him/her as n/der is a problem for me.
MarktheShark says: goninnygo, it is a close decision between pitching the pair of aces or the pair of fives. But, there really is not another good choice if you want to try to win. Pitching 5-5 (my choice) leaves you with a better melding hand than pitching A-A, but the 5-5 pitch is much more dangerous in Dealer's crib. I would not try to play defense here, although others will, because Dealer has three hands to get to ONLY 21 points and you are feeding his crib with points no matter what you pitch.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6630 votes)

Thursday 8:23 AM
I would have done the aces on that array even considering any spread points I might had considered. dec
lonmower

Joined: June 2016 (637 votes)

Thursday 8:45 AM
WHAT A FANTASTIC PUZZLE!

I seem to get similar hands... in similar positions. I did NOT make a popular choice of toss. After the cut, I am sticking with it. I am playing 100% defense and hoping for the best in the next hand

History shows us that colonizing people cause loss of life, loss of culture... home... language etc. The pilgrims only started the process which continues to this day. T-Day should be a time for asking REPENTANCE
lonmower says: "Amen" and please pass the gravy
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (511 votes)

Thursday 9:28 AM
I chose to go into total "lock-down" mode. Any cut helps this hold....granted, that "help" will not be sexy but at least you didn't the game away on a missed cut. I will lead the 4 and grab all the pegs I can!
kal79

Joined: April 2024 (239 votes)

Thursday 9:55 AM
In the camp of stonewall defense today. Given the score, we either need to choose full offense or full defense. As Sgt Pegger says above, any cut helps this hand, though it’s still weak. Hoping we can fend the dealer off for one more hand after this, after which we can count out as dealer ourselves. Happy thanksgiving to all!!
asevenson

Joined: August 2011 (3118 votes)

Thursday 10:52 AM
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5537 votes)

Thursday 2:35 PM
At 104-100* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
A-A-7-7____9.35+(-0.83)+(-7.33)=1.20______6.5____19.3
A-A-5-7____5.00+(-0.57)+(-4.24)=0.20______0.0____22.1
A-5-7-7____7.09+(-1.54)+(-5.74)=(-0.20)___0.3____16.7
A-A-4-5____6.30+(-0.37)+(-6.42)=(-0.48)___0.4____14.9

Optimal________L1 %___L2 %
A-A-7-7_________24.2___73.5
A-A-5-7_________12.4___70.5
A-5-7-7_________16.6___77.3
A-A-4-5_________24.1___78.1

A-A-7-7 is best for expected averages by 1.00pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s. Although it is very much higher for Loss %s I'll still select 4-5 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
7_______________________1.78
A_______________________0.91
LoneStarPegger

Joined: January 2008 (846 votes)

Thursday 10:45 PM
Ditto - Damn the torpedoes...
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