Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by glmccuskey
0*-0  ?
30%
25%
17%
14%
11%
Total votes: 136

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BigFoot Bob
304 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Sunday 3:04 AM
Worth tossing the fives to the crib because I can still hit a good hand.
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Rosemarie44
362 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:08 AM
Toss 5-K (suited) and hold run. Hand is slightly higher than toss 5-5
(combined value 16.30; crib plus exp. avg. hand). Every cut increases value of hand from 8 points to a maximum of 14 points. Cut of a 10 card favors hand and crib.
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dec
3484 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:15 AM
A K-5 discard has not done lately much for me in any type of play, so nickel chucking I go! dec
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Ras2829
2545 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 4:45 AM
Twenty years ago I instructed folks to toss 5-5 from this hand. If you are one of those folks, accept my apologies. From this configuration the 7-8 is even the better toss. Hold the four-card run as every cut in the deck adds value and discard the 5-X. In this case we toss the suited 5-K. Matters not what the 5-X looks like. As dealer of hand one, will choose defense and play off the lead.
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glmccuskey
2182 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 5:45 AM
This is the way I played it in a life game. Wanted to see what you guys thought.
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james500
1323 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 6:04 AM
6-7-8-X (5-5) for me.
Hopefully the value of the crib will make up for the smaller hand score. Prior to the cut I have 5, whereas I could've kept 8 with the double run, or 6 with 5-6-7-8.
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Jazzselke
707 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 6:15 AM
One instance of splitting the fives. Of course I was indoctrinated by Ras on this hand when I started
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Gougie00
3050 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:27 AM
I wasnt sure if 78 wasnt the best answer. I tossed suited 5K. I can account for 13 pts, and need to peg a few holes.
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ILostMyJob
1244 votes

Joined: September 2013

   
Sunday 7:20 AM
Toss K5 is also interesting...
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The_Bee_Mann
72 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Sunday 9:37 AM
I will keep my double run. Tossing the pair of 5s was tempting.
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Coeurdelion
3035 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 10:12 AM
Nice position to be in for first hand of a game. Do we throw 5-5, or 5S-K or 7-8?. I don't think we should keep 5-5-6-7 and give our box the poor 8-K but I'll include it:

6-7-8-K: 5pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 13¾pts

5C-6-7-8: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 12½pts

5-5-6-K: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

5-5-6-7: 8pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.16) = 11¼pts

Potential:

6-7-8-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999, KKK = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10/12pts with 666, 777, 888 = 9 cuts.

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 55, 666, 777, 888 = 15 cuts.

5-5-6-K: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 666, 777 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 +15xX = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12/14/16/17pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

5-6-7-8 will perhaps peg the best but pegging Defense all the hands could prove troublesome.

Position:

As usual as First Dealer we'll be playing Defense with par-hole at 7pts but trying to achieve above the average of 16pts for Dealer's score.

Summary:

6-7-8-K has the best starting value but 5-6-7-8 has much better potential with all cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 10-14pts. 5-5-6-7 has the highest maximum and a high number of cuts for improvement but has the lowest starting value so I do not think it will make this up. Therefore although the 5-5 is tempting I'll go for the suited 5-K and try to peg some points with 5-6-7-8 but as safely as I can.
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HalscribCLX
2781 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 10:41 AM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
5C-6-7-8__9.57+(-2.13)+6.50=13.94____49.3____59.6
5-5-6-K___9.35+(-2.11)+6.36=13.60____47.3____58.7
6-7-8-K___7.11+(-2.09)+8.56=13.58____46.6____57.4
5-5-6-7__12.22+(-1.96)+2.90=13.16____47.3____58.7

Defense_______L9 %____W10 %
5C-6-7-8______27.0____17.3
5-5-6-K_______26.1____17.8
6-7-8-K_______26.8____18.9
5-5-6-7_______26.1____17.8

5C-6-7-8 is 0.34pt better than 5-5-6-K and 0.36pt better than 6-7-8-K for expected averages. It is also appreciably better for Win %s, although 5-5-6-K and 6-7-8-K are slightly better for Loss %s. So I'll select 5S-K to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Inushtuk1
169 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Sunday 11:00 AM
This is a replica of the hand mentioned on the last page of Schell's article, Discarding to your crib. Have to admit before I read the article I would have tossed 5-5. And even earlier in my playing days I would have kept the double run.

I thought what if the K was a 10? Would that make the (5-5) toss worthwhile? Ahhh, no! 6-7-8-10 is only 0.09 points more than 6-7-8-K for its average hand. So it looks like 5-6-7-8(5-X) is the better play no matter what the X-card is.
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