Saturday 3:16 AM

Chose expected averages by tossing Q-K and keeping the Flush that starts with 13 points.

This hand has the potential for 14 cuts that increase it to 16, 20, or 21 points.

We can sacrifice 2 points in the hand to toss 5-K in our crib. This hand J-Q-Q-K stands at 8 points while our Flush starts with 13 points.

   

Saturday 3:27 AM

"Diamonds are a girl's best friend", they say. Well, I hope their friendship isn't limited to just the one gender, and that the flush might work well for me here.

   

Saturday 3:29 AM

Almost two point average more with this keep. Have to keep this one in my memory bank not as close as I would thought. Acourse pegging with faces could be an adventure. dec

   

Saturday 5:46 AM

Offsuited KQ or suited K5? Its sort of betting it all on the 1st horserace because KQ is unlikely to get any help. If I hold the double run then that 5 may catch some help. If there wasnt a flush it would be 5K in a heartbeat.

   

Saturday 5:56 AM

Can’t reduce my hand score by 5 points to throw 5-X.

   

Saturday 6:32 AM

Considering crib value with 13 points in hand is a futile exercise. Keep the 13 and toss the Q-K which has notoriously low average 3.483 (2,034) and is even lower than that because of the surrounding cards and the 5 spot retained. Don't fret! If you are motivated to try to build the crib ,go with the 5-K 6.726 (1,742) 5/91 compared to the 5-Q 6.593 (1,251 7/91. The 5-K is enhanced by that frequent K discard for non-dealer. So the 5-Q scores 2points 25% more than does the 5-K binging the average down. Otherwise the 5-K and 5-Q look the same. Clearly offense for me at outset. No time to get cute and pair a Q or King though since tossed one of each to crib. Will take the two points with the 5 on such a lead. Opponent needs 11 to deal from 3rd street CPZ 69-73. The 8 starter card adds no value to my hand and would seem to be of little use to the Q-K in crib. So once seeing that, will assume a defense pegging strategy. Better chance to keep non-dealer short than for me to extend my lead. A guaranteed peg, 13 points in hand, ? in crib puts me at 81. If could pick up two points in crib would be sitting at 83, needing 12 points out of the next deal.

   

Saturday 6:54 AM

Keep the points and a better defensive pegger as well.

   

Saturday 8:27 AM

What THEY ALL said!

Incidentally: Which Cut today assures us of more total points?

A Jack ... Or a 5 Card?

Or ............. do they perhaps .......... EACH give us .....

The SAME?

What's Your (Twenty-Six) Theory?

   

Saturday 9:51 AM

A great hand and a bad crib is usually better than a good hand and a potentially good crib.

I'd play off after the cut. With 13 points in hand and probably

   

Saturday 12:25 PM

Am I missing something today? We're in the lead, it's our crib, and the flush is worth 13 and double run, plus crib, is 10.

   

Saturday 1:21 PM

The flush or the double-run?:

5-J-QD-KD: 13pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.46) = 16½pts

J-Q-K-K: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 14½pts

Potential:

5-J-QD-KD: Improves with 555 + 11xXs = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 16/20/21pts with all cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

J-Q-K-K: Improves with 555 + 11xXs = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 15/16pts with 555, JJJ, QQ, KK = 10 cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg slightly better.

Position:

We're nearly in position and Pone is a good way behind. I think we can afford to play Defense.

Summary:

The flush has a starting value 2pts more and although it has the same number of cuts for improvement it has a higher maximum plus it scores 2pts extra for a dimaond cut rather than just 1pt. So I'll throw the QS-KC.

   

Saturday 2:19 PM

At 67*-58 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
5-J-QD-KD_15.24+2.37+2.76=20.37____57.8____78.8
J-Q-Q-K*__10.07+2.22+6.08=18.37____48.6____74.3
J-Q-K-K*__10.07+2.22+6.07=18.36____48.7____74.4

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
5-J-QD-KD_____10.5____15.0
J-Q-Q-K*_______9.5____17.7
J-Q-K-K*_______9.4____17.6

* suited discard.

The flush is 2.00pts best for expected averages and is very much better for Win %s and slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select QS-KC to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.