Friday 3:14 AM

*6-4-A eleven for pegging with.
*Open-ended touching cards in my box.
*Most cuts will help me somehow, (all bar a 2 or 3 = 38/46).

38 cards = 36 + 2 =
38 cards = (6*6 cards) + (2*1 cards) =
38 cards = (6*13%) + (2*2%) =
38 cards = 78% + 4% =
38 cards = 82% chance of a helpful cut.

   

Friday 3:14 AM

Best hand for combined expected averages (crib and hand) starting at 4 points and maximum of 14 points.

   

Friday 3:28 AM

This is an excellent example of what I mentioned a few days ago:

Instead of discarding PEARS such as Toss (4 4), look for a possible alternative ... in this case, we have Toss (8 9).

   

Friday 3:31 AM

Ten point cards and middle cards . Looks like the cut it both and just maybe a huge crib. Peg accordingly on what the lead is. dec

   

Friday 4:42 AM

Best potential and good pegging cards, as mentioned by James.

   

Friday 5:13 AM

I guess I'm the first to try something different. I really need a big hand and crib. The 7 is my bingo card. The A689 should be a good non-pegger because I am no longer interested in offense.

   

Friday 5:17 AM

Wanted to keep the A-4-4 together and the six card goes with them. All out offense from here.

   

Friday 7:02 AM

I need 23 total points in my three counts. Pondered the 8-9 vs the 4-4 discard and to me, keeping the A-4-4-6 has too many cuts for a 2 or 4 point hand (A,2,3,7,8,9). A T or face card cut gives me 6 points, which I already have (for sure) with A-6-8-9 toss 4-4. Cut was great for me. With a known 14 points, feeling good and would peg aggressively.

   

Friday 7:26 AM

This. Is yet another of the seemingly hundred or so hands where 4 starting combined poinst is better than 6. Play defense after the cut. Keep the opponent well short of Hole. 116 or 117 as next Dealer.

   

Friday 8:37 AM

This hand should get me to hole 112 or 113. With a first count on the next deal, I like my chances.

   

Friday 8:46 AM

I confess, not enough covfefe this morning. I was looking to keep the A,4's together and didn't notice the 6 made it a 4 pt hand. Thinking it only a 2 pt I chose otherwise. My mistake was certainly rewarded with that cut.

   

Friday 11:56 AM

Thought I saw A688 until I read JQT's comments...oh well not the first time I've seen the cards differently after the cut. Would be nice to see how the pair of 4's did with that 7 cut.

   

Friday 1:55 PM

Several factors mitigate conventional wisdom with these cards. If the choice is for offense or optimal pegging strategy the 3 card 11 (1-4-6)often works magic allowing the close of the count for 31-2. On a ten point lead would play a four spot since I have one in reserve and an Ace in the hole. Following the X lead, the count the would often go to 25, respond with the 6 for count of 30 and a likely go. Would pair a four lead though would not pair other offerings. The hold A-4-4-6 has the edge on potential hand value by nearly a full point based on my scant empirical data as all those X-pointer boost the score of the hand from 4-8. In addition, if choosing offense or optimal pegging strategies, the A-4-4-6 has the pegging edge as well. Are you choosing defense? Take a look at opponent position at 102, need 19 points to win on this deal. What are chances that non-dealer can score 19? That's a 1 in 23 proposition. With the average non-dealer scoring of 9 points, opponent should be about hole 111 with the deal. After seeing the 7 on the deck, RAS knows he has the guaranteed peg, six points in hand, and a minimum of 6 in the crib. That puts me at 111. So a few peg points without high risk should give me a pretty good chance to win with first count upcoming. It is important not to give up six pegs on a triple here, the reason for avoiding pairing except for doubling a four spot. Believe have submitted this puzzle or similar 7-89 times over the years and this is the first time the A-4-4-6 got mor4e than 50% of the vote. Those who participate on this page have come along ways over the years. That includes me and appreciate those on this site who continue to aid with my crib education.

   

Friday 2:05 PM

I think its between 4-4-6-9 (A-8), A-4-4-6 (8-9) and A-6-8-9 (4-4):

4-4-6-9: 4pts + 3ūpts (Schell: 3.80) = 7ūpts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 4ūpts (Schell: 4.72) = 8ūpts

A-6-8-9: 4pts + 5ūpts (Schell: 5.63) = 9ūpts

Potential:

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-6-8-9: Improves with AAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

A-4-4-6 has more low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We're in the CPZ so I'll play Defense to keep opponent short.

Summary:

A-4-4-6 has the most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts. It also should peg best. It starts with 1pt less than A-6-8-9 but I think this will be more than made up. So I'll throw 8-9.

   

Friday 2:42 PM

At 98*-102 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-4-4-6___7.57+(-2.22)+4.72=10.07____4.8____51.5
A-6-8-9___6.13+(-2.13)+5.47= 9.47____2.8____51.3
A-4-4-8___5.13+(-2.00)+5.03= 8.16____0.5____39.6
4-4-6-9___6.22+(-2.09)+3.50= 7.63____1.1____37.2
A-4-4-9___5.04+(-1.91)+4.48= 7.61____1.2____34.9

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-4-4-6_______5.9____40.2
A-6-8-9_______3.3____39.8
A-4-4-8_______4.3____52.3
4-4-6-9_______3.3____52.1
A-4-4-9_______4.3____56.2

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.50pt and is slightly best for Win %s. A-6-8-9 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.