Saturday 3:13 AM

Today we have the choice of tossing 2-5 or A-4 to our crib. Both hands start with 4 points, have the exact average expected hand (6.70 point) a min of 4 and a max. of 11 points.
The difference lies in the crib value, and 2-5 wins out at 5.54 points vs. 5.42 points.
The crib (2-5) increases with cuts of 2, 5, 8, and X's. While A-4 increases with A, 4, and X's.

   

Saturday 3:29 AM

14 face cards possible. Eleven count on hand for defensive pegging. Now I am thinking more defense on the pegging after that cut. dec

   

Saturday 4:07 AM

I'll try J-5, and hope for a favourable cut.

Two card eleven with 10-A:
X(10)-10(20)-X(30)-A(31/2).
Or a three card sixteen with 2-10-4:
X(10)-2(12)-5(17)-10(27)-go-4(31/2).

   

Saturday 4:35 AM

I’m a student today. I’ll be back to read on.

   

Saturday 5:25 AM

Yoda (Al Miller) told me this is the way to go.

   

Saturday 5:31 AM

5 > A & 4

   

Saturday 7:19 AM

Hey! It’s a Ras puzzle. See James’ post. And one more chance to pair a small card lead. Keep the peggers. Certainly not the way to go on defense, or even offense later in the game perhaps. But at this early stage it’s worth a shot. Much better pegging and once in a while a large crib.

   

Saturday 3:52 PM

At 17*-18 playing an Offense strategy of the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-2-4-10___4.52+3.30+6.79=14.61____37.7____27.2
A-4-10-J___6.70+2.50+5.40=14.60____39.3____30.0
A-2-4-J____4.78+3.30+6.50=14.58____38.4____27.9
2-5-10-J___6-70+2.67+5.19=14.56____38.6____28.4

Offense________L8 %____L9 %
A-2-4-10_______47.9____51.2
A-4-10-J_______45.8____48.5
A-2-4-J________47.9____50.6
2-5-10-J_______47.3____50.0

A-2-4-10 is best for expected averages by 0.01pt but A-4-10-J is best for Win %s and Loss %s. Its early in the game but as the difference in expected averages is very small so I'll choose based on the Win/Loss %s and select 2-5 to discard.

After the 7S cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Saturday 4:31 PM

Had queried this hand from live play on Cribbage Prof some time back and knew that the top four choices were within .05 of a point. Given the greater potential pegging and crib score, will still settle on 5-J to crib. Like that pegging edge and crib score when playing offense. BTW on 1,678 discards of 5-J to my crib, 41.358% have scored 8-11 points and 12 or more points have been tallied in another 5.78%. That's nearly half the cribs at 8 or more points. That's because it works so well with those frequent Q-K and 10-Q discards from non-dealer. The average for 5-J to own crib based on my accumulated empirical data is 7.135. Also wanted folks to see that the A-4 discard was #4 among these as shown in HalscribCLX analysis above. Inushtuk1 wrestles with the "sweet sixteen" in his reply to james500. The two card "eleven from heaven" (A-X) often works for the dealer to close the count at 31-2 and is absolutely useless when held by non-dealer.