Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
38*-41  ?
64%
14%
11%
6%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 201

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BigFoot Bob
373 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Monday 3:06 AM
Hopefully the crib will make up some points missing here in my hand.
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dec
3556 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:12 AM
Four card eleven and two in the crib. dec
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Jazzselke
740 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:17 AM
I think we may have had this hand a couple weeks ago? Hand improves on any hand except a 9 or face-card, but of course a face-card helps the crib,
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Rosemarie44
431 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:23 AM
Looks like I am with the majority this morning! Four card eleven as said by dec. Hand improves on any cut except a 9 or face card as Jazzselke explains. Only can add that this has the highest combined value of any of the three tosses: 5-Q, 5-7, or 2-7.
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james500
1386 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:59 AM
Ah-2-5-7 (Q-As) may peg well, and will be helped by every cut, (a 4 scores in the crib). I can't quite justify choosing it though. Probably a more appropriate choice if Pone.

I've chosen the more conventional Q-5.
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Gougie00
3117 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:09 AM
I'll play this way just incase of a 3 cut.
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glmccuskey
2252 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 5:27 AM
Don't see much here except the 5-Q and some pegging cards. So I'll keep the peggers and throw the good stuff.
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JRCeagle78
198 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 7:27 AM
Keeping the pegging cards with a possible 3 cut is clearly the best alternative. This hand, with a magic eleven should be good enough for at least three pegs.
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Inushtuk1
226 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 8:30 AM
It's all been said above. With only 9 known points will have to play on, and dump my 7 on every lead but the Ace or Deuce. Yes, including the 5, 6, or 9 lead. Must be willing to give up a run of three in order to keep my A-A-2 intact.
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JQT
1994 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:14 PM
We have a logical 'split' between the Four-Card "Magic Eleven" and Toss (5 X) today.
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Coeurdelion
3099 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 4:07 PM
I think its between A-A-2-Q (5-7), A-A-5-Q (2-7), A-A-2-7 (5-Q) and 2-5-7-Q (A-A):

A-A-2-Q: 2pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 8pts

A-A-5-Q: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

A-A-2-7: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

2-5-7-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-A-2-Q: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, QQQ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 6/8/12pts with AA, 222, 3333, 4444 = 13 cuts.

A-A-5-Q: Improves with AA, 3333, 4444, 555, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8pts with all cuts.

A-A-2-7: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/8pts with AA, 3333, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

2-5-7-Q: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7pts with 3333, 555, 6666, 8888, QQQ = 18 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-A-2-7 will peg best with more low cards and a 4-card magic eleven.

Position:

We're both short of position but Pone only needs 3pts to be in position for their deal next. So I think we need to peg points but safely and keep Pone short.

Summary:

A-A-2-7 starts with ¼/1¼pts more and should peg best but 2-5-7-Q has most cuts for improvement and more cuts for a reasonable hand of 6/7pts. A-A-2-7 does have 7 cuts for 8pts with 3333, 777 and A-A-2-Q has 4 cuts for 12 cuts 3333 whilst with A-A-5-Q all 38 cuts will reach 6/8pts. Even so I'll go with the hand that has the highest starting value and should peg best and throw the best discard with 5-Q.
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HalscribCLX
2847 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:37 PM
At 38*-41 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-A-2-7___4.17=3.41+6.65=14.23____21.4____18.0
A-A-2-Q___4.14+3.39+6.24=13.76____20.5____19.5
A-A-5-Q___6.26+3.52+3.87=13.65____19.6____20.6
2-5-7-Q___4.52+3.48+5.16=13.16____18.4____18.2

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-A-2-7_______44.3____61.1
A-A-2-Q_______39.4____59.0
A-A-5-Q_______37.2____57.7
2-5-7-Q_______39.4____60.4

A-A-2-7 is best for expected averages by 0.47pt but A-A-5-Q is best for Win %s and Loss %s but by a small margin over the rest. So as we're still in second street I'll put most weight on the expected averages. I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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Ras2829
2609 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 4:58 PM
Submitted this puzzle as see so many overlook opportunity for pegs with 4-card elevens as dealer. If a X-point card is led, play the 7 which forces the five off the play and dealer has a high percentage 31-4 (deuce for 29 followed by A-A). If opponent is holding 5-X-X-X, 5-5-X-X, or XXXX, which are very frequent hands, look for this pegging opportunity as it is often available. Other 4-card ll's which get magical pegging results as dealer are A-A-A-8. Play the 8 on any X-point lead (lower cards as well as pointed out by Inustuk1 above). Non dealer even if holding a five spot or 5-5 with X-pointers is likely to advance the count to 28, ideal for playing A-A-A for 31-8. The 2-2-2-5 for dealer offers a particularly inviting pegging coups. Play the 5 spot on a X-lead. If the five gets paired, most of the time you'll still get 2-2-2 make the count 22 and likely score 26 for 7. This works if non-dealer holding 5-X-X-X, or XXXX. Of course with the latter, the count gets to 27 with the play of dealer first deuce. You can see where that is headed. The other interesting one 4-card "eleven from heaven" is 2-3-3-3. Dealer dumps the deuce on a X-lead. This one doesn't work quite as well as the others as the play of a five breaks the treys up. If non-dealer is holding XXXX in any combination, you can see how those treys are going to stack up. Have mentioned in the past, that I qualified for the All -American Cribbage team a couple of times by holding one of these jewels on fourth street and scoring 20+ points topped by that wonderful final triple. Should mention also to take the pegs as they occur. Often see folks score a triple and not take the two pegs for the pair. Good idea to score the pegs as the play occurs. In that case, the distance between your pegs is always the amount of the last score pegged. That does two good things. It minimizes the chances that you will miss pegs and reduces the chance for disagreement as to the placement of the pegs or the distance between them. Some folks say "I have nine pegs coming" (or words to that effect), and they take all nine. Much better to take "two for the pair", move the pegs two, "six for the triple", move the pegs six, and "a go", move the pegs one. Nice to see Coeudelion's post in the mix today and that says it all. Good to see such a high number of responses to day that recognize the value of the A-A-2-7 for dealer pegging and the high average of the 5-Q to the crib.
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