Friday 3:08 AM

If it was 2-2-5-6-8-8 I would do the 5-6. Here I will keep the six. Will see how second choice 2-3 would have fared. Lean toward pegging defense if the lead presents itself. dec

   

Friday 3:11 AM

Always nice if you can get a five into your crib, but I think you'd be reducing your hand by too much if you chose 2-3 or 5-6.

   

Friday 3:29 AM

If this is a case for an exception to the Big Hand Rule, I maybe okay. Otherwise answering my questions: Did I stay within the sacrifice limits and does this hand have the potential for 12 points after toss: No and Yes. Both need to be Yes.

   

Friday 3:53 AM

I think I am better off sending the 2-3 to my crib and see what developes with all the ten count cards in the deck or maybe touching card hit a run.
It is also the same with the 5-6-8-8.. . . . . . Many cards help this hand.

   

Friday 3:59 AM

I once joked that of the five best Dealer Discards in Cribbage: Toss (5 5), Toss (2 3), Toss (5 6), Toss (5 X), and Toss (7 8), that the venerable Toss (2 3) could ALWAYS be an option, whenever it is dealt to us!

Toss (2 3) should average about 7 points, and Toss (5 6) is very close to that as well, so we're not entirely without options here. After all: Maybe it's time to take a ride on the RAS Roller Coaster!

While Toss (3 6) would not be overtly terrible here, Toss (8 8) would surely be a mistake. And therefore given the score, I am going to join the Class of 2016 above and try the somewhat adventurous idea of Toss (2 3).

What have we got to lose?! Just try not to frown too much if we Cut a 5 Card or 6 Card!

   

Friday 6:07 AM

Is throwing 2-3 worth the reduction in hand value of 4 points. Maybe. I'll read on.

   

Friday 6:40 AM

I'll toss myself the 23 and hold the 5688 cluster. The 4 helps both the hand and the crib. (probably the crib more!) Hole 70 is a stretch goal that I might reach. Offense.

Friday 6:44 AM

Possible 14 hand and 23 to the crib. Giving up 4 points in the hand, but much prefer 23 over 36 in the crib.

Friday 7:27 AM

The best toss to my crib from this hand is 2-3, so this is a very easy discard to make. I am giving up only two points (I now have 2+2 instead of 6+0), so not much sacrifice is called for. The only cut that doesn't help the hand is a 3, and that might yield a big crib. With the "kabangi" 4-cut, I now have 7 points in the hand and a minimum of 5 points in the crib.

   

Friday 10:45 AM

Thanks Ras for this instructive puzzle. I'm sure I would have kept the sure six points in my hand if I had never bothered to map out this one. This must be one of the exceptions to your Big Hand Rule. With 13 known points, and probably more, I'll play defense to the lead.

   

Friday 10:57 AM

I see ras2829 is at it again! Well I never understand breaking up the 2 3 throw to your crib. So for me this was ez but I am wondering where ras weighs in on this one. I have no idea of sequence of play prior to this hand so again is my pone biting on those pairs? I lead the 5 assuming the pone has nothing but 10"s and maybe get my pair of 8's for 4? or if the pone is savvy and/or cagey then the 8 lead and stay away as best I can.....keep them as close to me as possible.

   

Friday 12:01 PM

That Ras is a real rascal today. Only 1 way to hold 6 pts in hand, but that puts 3-6 in my crib -- not too attractive. Several ways to hold 2 pts, sacrificing 4 (!), but if we put either the 5 or the 2-3 combo in the crib, we're guaranteed 2 pts there, so the "sacrifice" is really only 2 pts. These give us hands of 2-3-8-8, 2-6-8-8, 3-6-8-8 or 5-6-8-8. I think the 5 might be a nice pegger, and holding 5-6-8-8 has loads of attractive cuts -- A 7-card cut boosts this hand from 2 to 12 pts. The 4-cut ain't bad, though: Hand grows from 2 to 7, but possible more exciting is we now have 2-3-4 in our crib. Not bad either.

   

Friday 12:25 PM

Would I be throwing 2-3 if this weren't a Ras puzzle?

   

Friday 1:23 PM

I figured since this is a Ras puzzle it just can't be the obvious 2 5 8 8. After the 4 cut looking good. Optimal.

   

Friday 2:35 PM

The obvious keep is 2-5-8-8 for 6pts but 2-3 and 5-6 are both good discards and we'll start with 2+2pts. In fact 2-3 is of course an excellent discard:

2-5-8-8: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 10pts

5-6-8-8: 2pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 8¾pts

2-3-8-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

2-5-8-8: Improves with 222, 555, 7777, 88 + 16xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12pts with 222, 555, 7777, 88 = 12 cuts.

5-6-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 14pts with 7777 = 4 cuts.

2-3-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 88 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9pts with 222, 4444 = 7 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all three hands will peg quite well. Perhaps with a 5 and a magic eleven 5-6-8-8 the best, despite the fact it has fewer low cards.

Position:

We're past 2nd street CPZ and Pone is only 4pts ahead so we're in a good position. We could play Defense but I think we're in a sufficiently good position to perhaps play cautious offense.

Summary:

I think its apparent that 5-6-8-8 (2-3) is better than 2-3-8-8 as it starts with ¼pt more has a better maximum and very many more cuts for improvement. 2-5-8-8 has a better starting value by 1¼pts compared to 5-6-8-8 but has a lot fewer cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand with 12 cuts for 10-12pts. However with 43 cuts for improvement and with 13 cuts for 6/7pts (AAAA, 222, 4444, 88) and 4 cuts for 14pts (7777) I think 5-6-8-8 will more than catch up that 1¼pts. So I'll throw the powerful 2-3 to my crib.

   

Friday 3:33 PM

At 46*-50 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
5-6-8-8___5.39+3.70+6.95=16.04____19.1____42.3
2-5-8-8___8.09+3.00+3.49=14.58____15.8____40.1
2-3-8-8___4.87+2.85+6.79=14.51____16.3____39.7

Offense_______L5 %_____L6 %
5-6-8-8_______18.4_____33.6
2-5-8-8_______15.8_____34.6
2-3-8-8_______17.9_____36.3

5-6-8-8 is best for expected averages by 1.46pts and is appreciably best for Win %s and second best for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Friday 4:23 PM

Submitted this puzzle as 2-3 and 5-6 are very strong discards to own crib. With the 4 cut, those who tossed the 5-6 are likely to get a better bump down the board than those who discarded 2-3. Even so it is important to make the decision based on the six cards you see. The cut card if favorable will be an added bonus. Want to share the discard profiles of these two powerhouses. The 2-3 7.135 (2,662) 2/91 scores two points 5.522%, tallies 3-7 42.464%, scores 8-11 38.129%, and tallies 12 or more 13.185%. That 5-6 6.80 (597)4/91 scores 2 points 5.025%, scores 3-7 45.73%, scores 8-11 39.865%, and tallies 12 or more 9.38%. Those look very similar all the way through until we hit the 12 or more category. There the 2-3 scores 40% more cribs than does the 5-6. We are dealing from good position well into that second street CPZ 43-47. Will play an optimal pegging strategy though will play off the lead unless an 8 spot. A few pegs here will add to my advantage knowing that I have 7 pints in hand and most any discard (including the low-scoring 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, etc.) will give me 7 points in crib. With the dealer guaranteed peg, can count on being at hole 61 or more. Non-dealer would need to pull out a score of 18-19 holes to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73). At this posting the 2-3 or 5-6 discard are the choices of 35% of those voting today. That matches what I view in live play when the 2-3 or 5-6 is retained in hands with no more than four points. Look for opportunities to put these dynamite building blocks to your crib and you'll be surprised how often they are available.