Monday 3:28 AM

Keep 4. Not keeping the A or 3 possible pegging end loss. Lead the 5 . dec

   

Monday 3:30 AM

keep enough to guarantee going out if no pegging avialable. Lead 3 and use two for end pegging.

   

Monday 3:33 AM

? is A-2-3 a bad keep? dec

   

Monday 5:01 AM

Seems simple enough to me. I kept A2310 and tossed the 5J. The pone needs 12, and what combination of pegging will allow him that with my small cards and without me pegging 3? Keep the 10 to escape from pegging if you have to. I'd lead the 2.

   

Monday 5:38 AM

took this as typical hand....needing only three, and with dealer so far back. lead the three, and unless you get a run threat, dump the two. otherwise dump the jack, then the two.

   

Monday 6:14 AM

I'm with Tim. Though, not needing points, I'd lead the deuce, looking to dump the J next. Would be tough to screw this one up no matter what your keep or lead.

   

Monday 6:32 AM

Since dealer is likely to be in an aggressive mood trying to cut their losses, I'm getting rid of A-2 doing my best to avoid some small card traps that can lead to mucho pegs. Don't like keeping and leading the 2 as you would not be able to get the count above 15 if paired. At least if the 3 lead is paired you can get the count to 16 (granted that would leave the 5 open to a 6-4 trap, however). Even if that worst case scenario acutally happened, dealer still wouldn't peg out.

   

Monday 10:19 AM

I thought the Jack was a liability. My plan is to lead the 3 and get rid of the 5 at first safe chance.

   

Monday 11:03 AM

I misread the score and thought I was the one screwed here!! Still, A-2-3-J gives me good flexibility to peg out and count out. The good cut is irrelevant here except that it lowers the possibility of my ace being trapped. I'd lead the jack and then try to entice a pair or 3 card run.

   

Monday 11:22 AM

I'm about 99.9% to win this game from this position. The only way I lose is 1) I get less than 3 points and peg nothing or 2) Dealer gets a big peg to beat me. The former just can't happen with this hand; I have enough almost any way I slice this. The latter COULD happen if I got trapped into a long run, forced to say "go" and then dealer sticks on 2 more successive cards OR dealer pairs a card, I say "go" and then lays down two more of the same for up to 19 points. By keeping 2-5-10-J there's just no way for dealer to come up with the pegs. Any other option leaves too many trap/run possibilities.

   

Monday 11:40 AM

Wish more of my games looked like this at the end. If one were just to play the numbers, holding A-2-3-J would be the optimal keep. Things are different because of the end-game pegging. What would it take for me to lose this game? Dealer pegs 12 holes without giving me three. The one card that is most likely to do that (without the knowledge of the starter card Ace) is that lone Ace. The second most likely is that deuce - for that reason lead the deuce. What is the difference between tossing 5-10 and 5-J? The Jack is the most frequent X-pointer that dealer puts to the crib as in 10-J, J-Q, J-J, 5-J, and any other card with Jack has higher average than that card with 10, Q, or King. More likely to give up a pair with holding the 10 than the Jack. Be interesting to hear from HAL on this hand as that single five is a dangerous card too. If holding the hand as I did, drop the five as the second card played even if it makes the count 21.