Tuesday 3:38 AM

Look to the more experienced players today for the best hand to hold in this position.

   

Tuesday 4:06 AM

One of the each.

   

Tuesday 4:19 AM

I think the only choice is whether to keep the jack or queen. With non dealer needing seven points I think they would hold a jack vs queen if given a choice.

   

Tuesday 4:39 AM

Pegging puzzle. Kept a variety of cards.

   

Tuesday 4:44 AM

They may have had to keep a Jack to nab any possible points. dec

   

Tuesday 6:18 AM

Needing 3 pegs to win, will hold in this manner. If needed 4-6 pegs, would have held the double run. Ace-5 have high pegging value, 6-7-8-9 have moderate pegging value, J has low pegging value, and 10-Q-K have no pegging value. That's how RAS determines which cards to hold in situations where pegs are essential. Will take the first pegs offered since I need three.

   

Tuesday 6:31 AM

Generally, the lower the value of a card, the higher its pegging value. "Keep the four smallest" might be an appropriate tactic here then.
I'd like to try 4-5-6-J though, (the Jack specifically, for the reason explained by Gary and Dan), and am encouraged to see that others have thought the same.

   

Tuesday 6:38 AM

I agree with the above, only I chose the Q vs the J for reasons I can't really remember. In hindsight, I should have kept the J as others have said, it is more likely to be kept by my opponent and I need points to peg out. RAS knows the odds, but I'm guessing my opponent has more than a 50% chance to have enough points (Don't have DeLynn's book with me...)

   

Tuesday 7:17 AM

Best variety. Amazing 6 commenters out of 8 have chosen this, but 42% with 4556.

   

Tuesday 8:51 AM

I keep the J. People want the extra point and may hold that. I want to peg out.

   

Tuesday 10:48 AM

There are 45% holding the double run and a total of 43% holding X-4-5-6. I'm in that camp. Keep the magic 11 and hope to use it. Hindsight and Ras says keep the J instead of the Q. Not sure it makes any difference. Am not pairing the J on a J lead any way.

   

Tuesday 12:27 PM

I'll stick with the majority. There is no logical reason to keep both 5's, it can only lead to trouble.

   

Tuesday 12:52 PM

A pair or 15 and a go, that's all we need. Four different cards. Sounds stupid now that I think about it, not even sure why I thought this way, but tossed the J to eliminate possibility of me getting paired.

   

Tuesday 1:13 PM

I think 4-5-5-6 may peg the best?

   

Tuesday 1:30 PM

At 118*-114 playing an Optimal strategy the chances of pegging out are:

Optimal__________Peg Out %
4-5-5-Q____________74.1
4-5-5-J____________73.0
4-5-6-J____________72.6
4-5-6-Q____________72.6
5-5-6-Q____________71.9
4-5-5-6____________71.5
5-5-6-J____________71.1
4-5-J-Q____________64.9
5-6-J-Q____________62.0
5-5-J-Q____________60.9
4-6-J-Q____________56.2

4-5-5-Q has the best chance of pegging out so I'll select 6-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.