*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 142|
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Joined: October 2008
Saturday 3:07 AM
With Eighteen Points necessary to WIN as the Dealer, we seem to be in the Driver's Seat today. But our Opponent only needs a Dozen Points, and Pone of course gets First Hand Show. Make PONE *work* for it!
Choices seem to abound today, with a FLUSH if we Toss (3c 6c), or a few other likely choices such as Toss (2 3), and even Toss (3 3). Even Toss (2 7) might be considered by some, although this discard appears to be better if we were Pone and not Dealer.
And Toss (6 6) might even appeal to a few, but let's recall my comments from just a few days ago with regards to "Intrinsic Points" and discarding 'PEARS' when we're the Dealer (Hint: Don't do it!)
Initially I am drawn to the FLUSH, so I will have to consider whether Toss (2 3) can "make up" for the difference in a few 'static' points (it usually can and does). I'm also looking at Toss (3 3) because among the PAIRS we might ever stow in our Crib, this is certainly no slouch.
In fact, the more I look at this arrangement, the more Keep (2 6 6 7) and Toss (3 3) appeals to me. We begin with a 'static' Eight Points, with great opportunities in both the Hand and the Crib. And perhaps most notably is that after we Toss (3 3), we have a fairly safe Pegging Arrangement!
The only "negative" that jumps out at me is the "Negative Delta" resulting from the Deuce we already have in our Hand, probably taking away some chances for growth in our Crib if we throw the two Treys. But these cards are bound to be 'split up' anyway today, and I cannot see avoiding some small drawbacks.
I'll Toss (3 3) and *HOPE* for a Deuce Cut! It didn't happen, but the 5 Card Cut is good for our Hand, and who knows: it may also be good for our Crib if Pone shoved a 4 Card or a 7 Card our way. We always must worry about a 5 Card Cut with Pone in this position however, so we must peg VERY DEFENSIVELY!
Joined: June 2013
Saturday 3:18 AM
Lots of options here, as John has described above. I'd like to try keeping 2-3-3 with the 7 as an escape card.
Joined: March 2016
Saturday 3:23 AM
Decided on tossing 3-3 and holding the hand that has the highest combined average. Now to see what JQT has written!
Joined: August 2009
Saturday 3:53 AM
Embarrassed with riches. I'll go for the double run. It is also interesting to consider this hand as pone.
Joined: April 2008
Saturday 4:27 AM
Our situation has all four dynamics involved. Keeping the best shot to hit the main hand the crib. With this keep I see this as the best shot at the most. We might possibly have enough with the cut to do the game hole. However this is not solitaire we have an opponent to consider here especially after that cut. With that five cut I will lead the two (three responses) and hopefully after their response deduce their hand maximum potential and limit their pegging and hopefully bank on the crib for the victory. dec
Joined: April 2008
Saturday 4:28 AM
sorry backwards play off play off period. dec
Joined: July 2016
Saturday 5:26 AM
JQT said it all.
Joined: March 2008
Saturday 5:34 AM
This way, 33, I think.
I may have opted for the flush if the other guy was the dealer. Worrisome is the 5 starter with the pone 12 holes away. It turns me from playing offensive to defensive.
Joined: July 2017
Saturday 9:40 AM
Ok so I am never one to follow the crowd and I thought this was a reasonably EZ throw. I have peggers that hit anything that is cut. I didn't give myself much of crib toss but frankly that may not even be counted. Give me a 2,3,6,7 flush any day!
Joined: October 2007
Saturday 1:18 PM
In this position I believe we must have a good hand and crib, I think to do this we must give ourselves the chance of a double-run in the hand with a good discard. The flush gives us a good chance of 11/12pts but the 3-6 discard is poor (est. 4pts Schell: 3.81). Initially I leapt to the 2-3 but meeting the above requirements are:
3-6-6-7: 4pts + 6ūpts (Schell: 7.00) = 10ūpts
2-6-6-7: 6pts + 5ūpts (Schell: 5.94) = 11ūpts
2-3-3-7: 4pts + 5ūpts (Schell: 5.76) = 9ūpts
2-3-3-7 has all th tenth cards to make 8pts but 10pts is its maximum (except for 33). I'll go with the highest total here. We start with 1pt more than 3-6-6-7 and we have 16 chances of a dozen points or more with 222, 5555, 66, 777, 8888. With 3-3 averaging nearly 6pts (as per Schell) this may well give us the 18pts we need. I'll throw the 3-3.
Joined: February 2008
Saturday 1:42 PM
At 103*-109 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
Optimal______L1 %____L2 %
2-6-6-7 is 0.54pt best for expected averages and is very greatly best for Win %s. It is also best for Loss %s. Both of these take account of the critical end of game board position. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.
After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Joined: November 2008
Saturday 3:10 PM
A distant echo to JQT and Inushtuk1.HalscribCLX has the strategy just right with optimal, optimal, def. Once seeing the starter card, knowing that I have that guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, and an assured two in the crib (15 points for sure) will play of the lead. It's likely the 5 on the deck gives me enough to go out on this hand. If not , just might find myself in hole 120. Opponent needs 12 on this deal to win. What are chances of that? That's one in four. Note that HalscribCLX shows that we have 96.1% (37.9+58.2) chance to win over next two deals. Exercise caution on the pegs this deal and we ought to win the game. Some careless pegging here could put opponent out.
Joined: March 2016
Saturday 3:15 PM
Good cards to have in this position. Agree with all the usual suspects.