Thursday 3:11 AM

Kept chances for A,9.Q cuts. 6-K may still yield me a low crib. Leading the 4. dec

   

Thursday 3:23 AM

I'm keeping the chance for a double run or Ace for 8pts. Not really tempted by anything else. 6-K is quite defensive in the crib but with 3 takes and 2 pegs to score 21pts for dealer we are in a sticky position! :-(

   

Thursday 3:35 AM

I dumped the 6 and 4, thinking that it would be better to get a 9 for the double run of 3 or a queen for the double run of 4. Now the question is what to lead...

   

Thursday 4:29 AM

I dumped 6K also to go for the double run

   

Thursday 4:36 AM

Another YES vote for 6-K. Lead the 4 and play defense.

   

Thursday 5:36 AM

...toss the 6-k..was thinking of keeping all face but chicken out at last thought

   

Thursday 6:16 AM

The K-6 do not work together so I discarded those into the crib.

   

Thursday 9:30 AM

K-6 for all the reasons above, double run potential, unhelpful throw etc.

   

Thursday 10:50 AM

Been well stated above by several. Keep the open-ended double-run prospect and toss 6-K. Although 10-K has lower crib average, that toss effects potential hand value too much.

   

Thursday 2:00 PM

Playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win %'s are:

Offense----Hand-Pegs--Crib---Total----W1 %----W2 %
4-10-10-J__4.76+1.17+(-4.24)=1.69____0.0_____22.3
6-10-10-J__4.41+1.28+(-4.39)=1.30____0.0_____20.9
10-10-J-K__4.59+1.24+(-5.41)=0.42____0.1_____15.8
4-6-10-10__3.74+1.41+(-4.98)=0.17____0.1_____18.6
4-6-10-J___2.54+1.46+(-4.56)=0.15____0.0_____20.0

4-10-10-J is best for expected averages and Win %'s.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead---Net Peg Pts.----W1 %-----W2 %
4_________1.84_______0.0_____22.6
10________1.46_______0.0_____21.3
J_________1.19_______0.0_____20.9

   

Thursday 3:00 PM

nothing to be gained by any other throw.