*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 140|
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Joined: March 2016
Friday 3:34 AM
Not sure with this selection but decided to choose a decent hand (6 points) and a toss to our crib that gives us 2 points.
Knowing that a 5 was going to turn up I could have chosen to toss A-3 or A-4, but as usual, I don't allow myself to be taken in by the knowledge of a starter card.
Was this an error in judgement? Or am I just not so adventuresome?
Good one james500.
Joined: April 2008
Friday 3:47 AM
2 3 4 5 7 all damn pretty good cuts here. After all in this position its all offense. Accept the pegging plusses or minuses here. dec
Joined: October 2008
Friday 4:35 AM
If we must bury a PAIR, few cards can beat a PAIR of Treys. But Toss A-3 is no slouch, either.
At Hole 19 and trailing by 11, we need a good boost here. And holding 3-4-4-4 is just the type of hand that can really provide such a boost!
Remember, although they are numerous, the Ten Cards or "X" only make up about one-third (16 DIV 46 equals about 35%) of the deck, by far NOT a majority!
This is one of the first things that often surprises players when they begin to apply mathematics to the game of Cribbage. The Ten Cards, including all Face Cards, seem to come up so often, that there is a tendency to believe that they form more than half of the deck. Clearly, they do not!
Thus, we can begin with more points by holding the 3-4-4-4 hand today, and perhaps more importantly, we can aim for the open-ended RUNs of either 3-4-5 or 2-3-4.
Also, in addition to Deuce or 5 Card Cuts, we are helped immensely as well by two additional Treys, one additional 4 Card, along with four ubiquitous 8 Cards and also four 7 Cards. That's a LOT of potential helpers, a few MORE in fact than the total number of Ten Cards.
Therefore, with more starting points, and more chances for help, only in a siruation in which we were severely worried about the pegging would we prefer A-4-4-4.
Joined: June 2013
Friday 4:57 AM
A clear two horse race.
3-4-4-4 will become 12+ points after cuts of 2222,33,4,5555,7777 or 8888 (19/46).
Also has the potential to score 31/4 with its three card eleven:
A-4-4-4 will become 12+ points after cuts of 4,6666,7777,TTTT,JJJJ,QQQQ or KKKK (25/46).
25>19 so I'll try A-4-4-4 (3-3).
Joined: August 2018
Friday 5:09 AM
Joined: March 2008
Friday 5:36 AM
I tried it this way just in case of a 2,5,7,8 cut.
Joined: November 2014
Friday 7:19 AM
Good one. Thought long and hard about keeping 3-4-4-4 or A-4-4-4 but thought T,J,Q,K odds better than 2-5-7-8. In hind sight, not sure why (bias?). Of course, if we always knew what card would turn up the game would be very different.
Joined: March 2009
Friday 7:40 AM
Good puzzle, tough call. Based on the score I will go for the larger hand. If in a more favorable position I would throw the treys.
Joined: December 2017
Friday 8:08 AM
I was reading about Rasmussen's small hand rule yesterday, decided to apply the principle this am.
Before the cut our relative position is a precarious +1/-4. After the cut I'd guesstimate our "adjusted position" at perhaps -4/+22, which would call for offense. But if pone is holding nickles and dimes the cut may well push him ahead a whole deal by reaching around 44, in which case we should play off. Not that there's much flexibility with a hand like this anyway.
I think I'd dump the vulnerable ace on a X lead and play a 4 in most other cases but I'm not really sure.
Joined: November 2008
Friday 9:08 AM
Am thinking off., off., off here (off. is for offense). So it's hold for the big hand and take pegs as offered. Will play on the lead. The 3-card 11 provides an excellent chance for dealer to close the count for 31-4. On any X-point lead, play the trey which forces the five off the play, opponent will advance the count to 23, and dealer responds with 4s. Yeah, it's a fake flush with 3s and 4s on the table. This trap play has a high percentage success rate when the lead is a X. Try it - you'll like it! The top two choices are very close. In situations where defense was the choice, A-4-4-4 would appear to be the better choice.
Joined: July 2016
Friday 10:04 AM
The star toss method leads me to this conclusion and an offensive 3-card 11.
Joined: October 2007
Friday 2:11 PM
A-4-4-4 (3-3) or 3-4-4-4 (A-3)?:
A-4-4-4: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts
3S-4-4-4: 8pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 12¼pts
A-4-4-4: Improves with AAA, 2222, 33, 4, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with 4, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 25 cuts.
3S-4-4-4: Improves with 2222, 33, 4, 5555, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 12/14/17/20ptpts with all cuts.
Both hands should peg quite well. Perhaps 3-4-4-4 better with a 3-card magic eleven.
We only need 25pts to get to 2nd street positional hole at 44pts and if Pone scores 26pts they will be at 56pts, 4pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense to keep them short.
3-4-4-4 starts with ½pt more and has the better maximum but A-4-4-4 has more cuts for improvement and 25 cuts for 12pts. 3-4-4-4 may peg better but I don't think it will be by much. So I'll throw the 3-3.
Joined: February 2008
Friday 2:21 PM
At 19*-30 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-4-4 is better for expected averages by 0.13pt and although 3S-4-4-4 is slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s as its early in the game I'll decide on the expected averages. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.
After the 5 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.