Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
94-91*  ?
35%
29%
24%
7%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 157

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JQT
2070 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:05 AM
Toss (7 9) is too risky, and it hurts us too much to throw either the Deuce or Trey, so we are forced to look at retaining either Keep (A 2 3 9) or Keep (2 3 4 9) today.

Toss (4 7) and Toss (A 7) are both similar in that they rely upon the "Isolation" characteristic in which ONLY the combination of a "like" card will significantly boost the point total.

But there is a difference on OUR side of the board between the two RUNs, since A-2-3 is "bounded" on the 'low' side, and yet 2-3-4 is "unbounded" on both ends of the RUN.

Thus by simple process-of-elimination, we find that Keep (2 3 4 9) and Toss (A 7) is the preferred choice today.

With nine Cuts (222, 333, 444) for 12 Points, we have almost a 20% shot at those Dozen Points.

The Trey is a good card to lead, since if paired we can safely parry for (15-2) with our 9 Card, and we can also safely score (15-2) after ANY of 16 "X" or Ten Cards.
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dec
3774 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:04 AM
79 Risky. Defensive eleven. I had mentioned that A-2-3-4 is not a preferable hold later in a game this is one example as such. Three lead. dec
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Rosemarie44
613 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 4:07 AM
Toss A-7 less risky and hold the small run 2-3-4 which has more cuts for improvement
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joekayak
263 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 5:08 AM
All cuts improve this hand putting me squarely in or just beyond the CPZ. Defense defense defense. A-9 seems safer than A-7
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glmccuskey
2433 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 5:29 AM
I think 4-7 is more defensive then A-7. Iíll lead the three and peg it defensively.
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james500
1560 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 6:00 AM
Thought about keeping A-3-4-7 and leading the 4:
4(4)-4(8/2)-7(15/2)... or,
4(4)-X(14)-A(15/2)...

but I've gone for the more conventional (and three points more valuable) 2-3-4-9. 3 lead.
3(3)-3(6/2)-9(15/2)... or,
3(3)-X(13)-2(15/2)... or maybe,
3(3)-8(11)-4(15/2)...
Reply
Jazzselke
842 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:18 AM
I think JQT covers all the relevant aspects of this hold.
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Ras2829
2785 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 6:29 AM
JQT sets the parameters for retaining 2-3-4-9 very well for me. It's def., def., def. RAS has nine points after the cut of that six spot. Fourth street CPZ is 95-99 and I will be at a minimum of 103. Given that, the trey is the proper lead and allows me to retain an escape card with the 9 in event dealer plays on my lead. If had been at hole 84, would have led the 9, keeping 2-3-4 intact. Inushtuk1 commented regarding the crib classes here. The first two classes are complete with students from Battle Ground, Tacoma, Vashon Island, Wenatchee, and 7 from Chehalis-Centralia area. With some local radio public service announcements through the 25th, a bit of local newspaper coverage believe we will hit 20 for the next session. The next class is Discarding to Opponent Crib and includes material you never knew existed. If passing through the I-5 corridor on a Tuesday, check them out. Class time is 6:30 at 1400 Grand Avenue, Centralia WA 98531 with presentation, question/answer, discussion followed by three games of cribbage. That concludes by 9:00 PM. There is no charge, take-hone printed matter is provided. Don't need to bring a thing. We even provide lined tablets and pens for those who wish to take notes. The classes are provided as a public service supported by the Chehalis-Centralia Cribbage Club. There are a few quizzes along the way. If a student gets a perfect score on one of those, they get to teach the ensuing class. Wouldn't you know? Nobody gets a good score! There will be an updated series of U-tube videos on cribbage strategy. The present set was recorded seven years ago. And we're having fun too!
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Gougie00
3299 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 6:45 AM
Dave Statz convinced me that A7 is usually a clunker in the crib. You may get toasted for 12 or more every now and again, but A7 is a good percentage play. Plus I retain 234 which should be a good pegger and has a chance to be a 12 hand.

I was going to mention I would lead the 9 if I needed to peg. Ras beat me to the punch. I think the 3 lead is the proper lead here and depending on what the response is, I think I'd like to ditch the 4 next.

If the dealer has a 16 hand then we are dead regardless of how smart we play. I'll play it like he has 8 or less and try to stifle.
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spin121
181 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 8:31 AM
Will try to get out in 2 deals and at the same time prevent dealer from doing same by pegging defensively.
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Andy (muesli64)
1276 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 10:54 AM
In a nutshell I prefer A-7 rather than 4-7. Simply because the A is less use to dealer than the 4. Ras and JQT agree - that's good!
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JQT
2070 votes

Joined: October 2008

Wednesday 1:22 PM
Let's "do the math" on this puzzle.

It's fascinating to note that I do recall that after many discards, Keep (2 3 4 9) and Keep (A 2 3 4) are often essentially equal, as this is related to an interesting and almost identical puzzle (111-110*) (A 2 3 4 9 T) that appeared on this site back around mid August 2016, one that I had already once worked out!

Let's see if/and how this puzzle may be similar:

(94-91*) (As 2h 3d 4c 7s 9h)

After carefully "Mapping Out" the three most compelling choices of Toss (A 7), Toss (7 9), and Toss (4 7), there seem to exist some startling similarities (such as an IDENTICAL Expected Average) and also some astonishing differences (in spite of those two very unusual similarities, there are actually quite a remarkable number of differences between these hands). I did "Map Out" these three most interesting choices, so let's examine the details:

Keep (2 3 4 9) Toss (A 7)

09x12=108 - 222, 333, 444 (9 Cuts = 12 Points)
07x09=063 - 6666, 999 (16 Cuts >= 9 Points)
03x08=024 - AAA (19 Cuts >= 8 Points)
20x07=140 - 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (39 Cuts >= 7 Points)
04x06=024 - 5555 (43 Cuts >= 6 Points)
03x05=015 - 777 (3 Cuts = 5 Points)
---------
46 374

Expected Average is: 374 DIV 46 is 8.13 Points

--

Keep (A 2 3 4) Toss (7 9)

12x10=120 - AAA, 222, 333, 444 (12 Cuts = 10 Points)
23x08=184 - 8888, 999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (35 Cuts >= 8 Points)
04x07= 28 - 5555 (39 Cuts >= 7 Points)
07x06= 42 - 6666, 777 (7 Cuts = 6 Points)
---------
46 374

Expected Average is: 374 DIV 46 is 8.13 Points

--

Keep (A 2 3 9) Toss (4 7)

03x14=042 - 333 (3 Cuts = 14 Points)
06x12=072 - AAA, 222 (9 Cuts >= 12 Points)
03x09=027 - 999 (12 Cuts >= 9 Points)
03x08=024 - 444 (15 Cuts >= 8 Points)
24x07=168 - 5555, 6666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (39 Cuts >= 7 Points)
07x05=035 - 777, 8888 (7 Cuts = 5 Points)
---------
46 368

Expected Average is: 368 DIV 46 is 8.00 Points

--

We should only use 'guts' when math cannot be substituted: in this case, Keep (A 2 3 9) will produce an Expected Average of 8.00 Points, and Keep (2 3 4 9) will produce an Expected Average of 8.13 Points. While we cannot be expected to perform such heroic calculations 'over the board,' surely that extra 0.13 Points is a result of the 'unbounded' RUN of the 2-3-4; this in spite of the three Cuts that yield a staggering 14 Points for the former discard choice! I performed all of my math today without any help from either Coffee or Bourbon, so please kindly excuse any errors! ; - )
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JRCeagle78
306 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 1:26 PM
Keeping the Ace with the 2-3-4 does not usually give you any more pegging unless the dealer has a similar hand. A234 has a maximum of 10 points plus a probable 2 or 3 pegs. By keeping the 9, you have a suitable escape card if a "run battle" appears. By playing the 9 you have a better chance of setting up the smaller cards for later pegging.. Lead the 3,and let the play begin.
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