*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 141|
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Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com
Joined: April 2016
Sunday 3:04 AM
Take the sure four and these cards should peg well.
Joined: April 2008
Sunday 3:08 AM
Will this game go beyond this hand and two more deals? That is how I am going to play this one. defense. Four lead. dec
Joined: March 2016
Sunday 3:11 AM
In this position I would say defense or at least optimal strategy. The best hold would be tossing 4-K which is valued at only 2 points or less to opponent's crib. (Ras) Tossing 4-K or 3-K both are heavily weighted at 5-7 points and have expected averages of 7.50 and 7.59 points, respectively.
Joined: March 2008
Sunday 5:07 AM
I kept the shot for a 12. Lead the 8?
Joined: October 2008
Sunday 5:12 AM
When holding a mid-card RUN such as 6-7-8, I like to retain the 'companion card' which forms a "Magic Eleven" with the HIGHEST RANKING card in the RUN. In this puzzle, this means Keep (3 6 7 8) is my preferred choice.
Toss (4 K) is also a bit safer 'over the board' than Toss (3 K), since (among other reasons) it always takes at least one odd-ranking card to form a (15-2).
These reasons for holding onto the Trey as opposed to retaining the 4 Card are compelling enough, even though we are Pone, that I'll temporarily overlook the fact that if all things are equal, a 4 Card is indeed a slightly better Lead Card than a Trey. That's especially true today, because if we did actually lead a 4 Card and if is was PAIRED, then we would have a simple and fairly safe way to 'parry' the Dealer and play our 7 Card for (15-2). But I'm not thinking of leading our only "Out" Card!
Notice that we lack such a play if we lead the Trey, since we have no 9 Card; however, I'm somewhat reluctant to lead our solitary "Out" or "oddball" card here anyway, because we might then get all "jammed up" holding those three close "Middle" cards. Therefore, whether we held the 3 Card or the 4 Card, I'm considering a lead from the RUN anyway, in order to "break up" this cluster of cards. Doing so will leave us still in possession of our "Out" card.
And so I'll lead the 7 Card today. If the Dealer can play an 8 card for (15-2), we can then PAIR this with our own 8 Card, and while we would then be risking another 8 Card played by the Dealer for "gasp!" (31=8), the odds of the third 8 Card being "in play" is actually quite remote.
What's much more likely to be in play is the Dealer holding a 9 card (since we were not dealt any of these, and since my scenario has yet to reveal any 9 Cards, this all tends to raise the likelihood that the Dealer would be holding a 9 Card).
Note that if we lead an 8 card however, and then if the Dealer plays a 7 Card for (15-2), and if we then PAIR that 7 Card, now we are not only vulnerable to that third 7 Card for (29=6), more importantly I think we are extremely vulnerable to a 9 card for (31=2). So this is a rare case in which I'll prefer to lead a 7 Card.
Joined: June 2013
Sunday 5:25 AM
I think it's worth the 1 point sacrifice, in order to discard K-6.
Only an X cut is unhelpful, leaving 31/46 that are.
I'll lead the 4, as it cannot be scored on without allowing me to retaliate with the 7.
Joined: April 2011
Sunday 6:57 AM
Agree with James500. I'll lead the four.
Joined: November 2016
Sunday 8:56 AM
I discarded the 3K. Mainly because the 4 fits well if a 5 is cut.
Joined: July 2016
Sunday 11:40 AM
See my comments in JQT's post for why I'm going this way. It's all explained there. Ignore the stupid reply about the toenails. Very torn about whether to play total defense with a (K-6) toss though. I did like what james500 and glmccuskey said. Also like what Gougie00 said about leading the 8 from 3-4-7-8. Great puzzle. Hope to hear Ras, Coeurdelion, and Hal's comments.
Joined: October 2008
Sunday 1:22 PM
I thought some of you might really enjoy seeing me 'come up short' by a Single Point! Here is a heartbreaking loss to today's puzzle that I nevertheless thoroughly enjoyed playing as I "battled it out" with the latest and greatest (and last and final) 2012 version 5.1 of Halscrib. This program is also known (and greatly appreciated and respected amongst Cribbage Players around the World) as "Crib Prof" developed and written by Professor Hal Mueller of Ontario, Canada.
Note that this is not a complete game: this is a scenario of the Final Three Deals played by JQT against the computer of a Puzzle taken from "Cribbage Hand of the Day" as suggested by james500 on May 21, 2017. Would you play this any differently? Of course you would! That's Cribbage!
Halscrib 'Crib Prof' ver 5.1
May 21, 2017 at 06:34 AM
Mode > Scenario 'Scholar'
Deal 01 T: [0.0.0] (92-96*) JQT (3c 4d 6s 7h 8s Kh)
JQT Keep (3c 6s 7h 8s) Toss (4d Kh) vs
CLX Keep (5c Ts Js Kh) Toss (2d 4s) Cut Qh
Pegging: 7 (7) K (17) 8 (25) 5 (30=1) . 3 (3) J (13) 6 (19) T (29=1)
JQT Peg 0 + Hand 5 = Total 5
CLX Peg 2 + Hand 12 + Crib 2 = Total 16
Score after Deal 01 = (97*-112)
Deal 02 T:  (97*-112) JQT (Ah 3d 3s 7c 9s Qh)
CLX Keep (Ah 3d 3s 9s) Toss (7c Qh) vs
JQT Keep (6s 8s 9h 9d) Toss (3h 5h) Cut 6d
Pegging: 3 (3) 9 (12) 3 (15-2) 9 (24) A (25) 6 (31=2). 9 (9) 8 (17=1)
CLX Peg 2 + Hand 6 = Total 8
JQT Peg 3 + Hand 12 + Crib 7 = Total 22
Score after Deal 02 = (119-120*)
Deal 03 T:  (119-120*) JQT (2h 3s 7d Th Td Jh)
JQT Keep (2h 3s Th Jh) Toss (7d Td) vs
CLX Keep (3h 5s 7s 9c) Toss (Jc Js) Cut Qd
Pegging: 3 (3) 3 (6=2)
JQT Peg 0 + Hand 9 = Total 9
CLX Peg 2 + Hand 4 + Crib 8 = Total 14
Score after Deal 03 = (119-121)
Note: Dealer pegged out, so the final Hands and Crib were never tallied.
Joined: October 2007
Sunday 3:30 PM
Do we keep 5pts with 4-6-7-8 (3-K) or 3-6-7-8 (4-K) or do we play Defense and keep 4pts with 3-4-7-8 (6-K):
4-6-7-8: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = +½pt
3-6-7-8: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = +½pt
3-4-7-8: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14) = -¼pt
4-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10/12pts with 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888 = 16 cuts.
3-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 31 = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with 666, 777, 888 = 9 cuts.
3-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10pts with 444, 5555, 888 = 10 cuts.
All these hands will peg quite well. Perhaps 3-4-7-8 will peg slightly better.
Dealer is at 4th street par-hole and we need to keep Dealer as far away from hole 112 as possible so need to play all-out Defense to give us a chance to go out as Dealer next time.
3-6-7-8 and 4-6-7-8 start with ¾pt more than 3-4-7-8 and although the number of cuts is the same for each the maximum for 3-6-7-8 and -4-6-7-8 is higher with more cuts for a good hand. So I don't feel its worth sacrificing 1pt to throw the safer 6-K. 3-6-7-8 and 4-6-7-8 are going to be very close but as there's more cuts for 9-12pts with 4-6-7-8 I'll throw 3-K.
Joined: February 2008
Sunday 3:48 PM
At 92-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense__Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total__W2 %___W3 %
Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
3-6-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.o8pt over 4-6-7-8 and 0.69pt over 3-4-7-8. It is also best for Win %s and second best to 3-4-7-8 for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-K to discard.
After the 10 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Optimally (cautious offense):
Lead________Net Pegging Pts.
Joined: November 2008
Sunday 9:58 PM
There is a difference, though slight in the average of A-2-3-4 with a X-pointer. A good guide to use in many game circumstances is that the 1-X has the lowest average, 4-X is the next lowest scoring, then 2-X, followed by the 3-X. It takes a lot of fine tuning to see the difference between tossing 3-K and 4-K. The 3-K scores 8 or more 18.114% and scores 12 or more 4.628% while 4-K scores 8 or more points 16.7% and tallies 12 or more 2.943%. That's enough of a difference most places in the game to favor the 4-X though little difference in averages, and they are adjacent discard options in the long list of 91. Since dealer is already at hole 96, will split the sequence on my first card played. Goodbye 7! Since the cut is of ho nelp, will play optimally.