Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-84  ?
36%
29%
28%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 143

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dec
4086 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:06 AM
If I discard J-5 do I still have a chance at a hand that could produce twelve? May have to play into a chance to get some pegging points now. dec
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james500
1803 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:29 AM
I'd like the 5 card in my crib.
Very fortunate with the cut.
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Rosemarie44
864 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:33 AM
I like tossing 5-8 and holding A-2-2-J. Combined averages favor this slightly. Hand has 31 cuts that improve from 4 points to a maximum of 14/15 points. Crib improves with a cut of a 2, 5, 7, 8, and 15 face cards.
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JQT
2307 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 4:15 AM
When you can get a 5 Card into your Crib for "free," do it!
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joekayak
441 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 5:15 AM
Small hand rule. Hands of 8 or less (we've got one), don't give up points and take into account the total value of hand/crib (6 points either keep of 8-2-2-5 or A-2-2-J with the 5 in the crib). Unless Ras has repealed/amended the rule, I think this fits perfectly and keeping the A-2-2 together makes for a chance of the cut we so deservedly got. (A rarity in cribbage...LOL.)
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Gougie00
3546 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 5:23 AM
Down by 13, its time for a little magic. Presto! A 3 starter! I will try to parlay the 2's at the end. I just might be back in the game.
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Jazzselke
998 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 5:58 AM
Not crazy about 58 but it is better than AJ.
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glmccuskey
2681 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 6:00 AM
Only giving up two points to throw 5-J. Why not? Nice cut.
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Inushtuk1
579 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 8:09 AM
What JQT said. Also, our opponent is only minus 2. I need to think defense here. Getting that 5 out of my hand can only be good on defense.

Great cut. I have 17 known points. Probably 3 or 4 more with at least 2 key connectors in my crib. I’ll play defense to the lead a bit. I would like to parlay the deuces at the end. But not desperate to do so.
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JRCeagle78
472 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 8:45 AM
With the 3 cut, I don't expect a crib more than 4 to 6 points so I will play defense. I have a guaranteed 1 peg but the 2-2 may give me more since I don't expect the pone to have another. I should end the hand around hole 93-95 if the pone plays a risky hand.
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horus93
154 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 9:24 AM
I liked suited 5-J in the crib though it looks like this was the inferior choice by about .3

In such a marginal position and with this hand I'd play "optimally". I want to get past 86 while keeping pone behind 96.
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dgergens
120 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 9:57 AM
Today is a good example of how this site has helped me improve my game. My initial instinct was to maximize my hand, keep the 2,2,5,8, and let the crib land where it may. But, from my time spent here, realized the J,A in the crib was probably pretty useless, and that if I was willing to gamble 2 points, I would have a 5 in my crib, and keep the A,2,2, together for a possible dbl run. And voila, great spinner.
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Ras2829
3036 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 10:16 AM
Contrary to popular belief 5-8 is a strong discard to own crib. Sure the 5-J is even stronger. The 5-J just won't recover the potential loss in hand score with the added crib value. The five spot with anything averages very near 6 points. and the 5-8 average is 5.564 (550) 16/91 scores 2 points 7.09% and 8 or more 26.542%. Those are good numbers and it scores 8 or more nearly 4 times as frequently as it scores a mere two points. Good puzzle james500 as it reflects choices commonly found in play. With opponent at 84 (needing 11 to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99) will peg optimally.
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Coeurdelion
3493 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 1:44 PM
It might seem as if it's a straight choice between 2-2-5-8 (A-J) and A-2-2-J (5-8) but perhaps A-2-2-8 (5-J) is worth looking at as well:

2-2-5-8: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 9¾pts

A-2-2-J: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 9½pts

A-2-2-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

Potential:

2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 22, 555, 888 = 8 cuts.

A-2-2-J: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-2-2-8: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/10pts with 22, 3333, 4444, 555 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think with a 3-card magic eleven and 3 low-card and a mid-card A-2-2-8 will peg the best.

Position:

We're well into 3rd street CPZ and Pone is a little short. I'll play Defense to keep them that way.

Summary:

2-2-5-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt over A-2-2-J and ¾pts over A-2-2-8. However A-2-2-8 has the most cuts for improvement and 13 for 6-10pts. It also should peg well. I don't think it will make up the ½-¾pt though. A-2-2-J has less cuts for improvement but 4 more cuts than 2-2-5-8 for an average/good hand and a better maximum at 14pts.
With 3 low-cards and a knave I also think it will peg well. So I'll throw the 5-8.
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HalscribCLX
3261 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 2:10 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-2-2-J___6.80+(-2.33)+5.40=9.87____10.3____24.5
A-2-2-8___4.83+(-2.39)+7.05=9.49_____8.9____22.4
2-2-5-8___8.22+(-2.30)+3.53=9.45_____8.4____23.3

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-2-J______42.9____67.4
A-2-2-8______44.1____70.2
2-2-5-8______41.9____68.9

A-2-2-J is 0.38pt best for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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