*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)

46-46* ?

72%

20%

Total votes: 122

I did notice the clubs there. Thou shall play my position first. 23 cuts makes this a better hand (I really do not want to see the five here) vs the five and those 16 facecards somewhere out there awaiting the crib. I did ponder the 4-7 for a second. Lead the seven it looks like it might work out for the better here. dec

I keep the double run.........

Join the crowd; lead the 7 of Hearts.

Unless you know a 5 will be cut, this is the why to play it.

Not much to think about here. Will lead the 8 of hearts and pair a seven response if needed.

Keeping the dozen. Nice cut!

Pretty easy decision.

Toss 46 here as well. 46 is one of those discards that some people seem to be scared of, but probably shouldn't be. It's a below average discard to our opp's crib, sure, but generally not worth giving up much in hand over.

If it were later, say 96-96, I'd consider going the more defensive route and toss 4-7, but it's still early, and we might as well keep the best hand, which also gives us a shot at making the 24 pts we need to get to 70.

As it is, we cut a 2 which gets us to +16 in hand. It would be nice to pick up some more in the pegging, so I'll lead a 7 and take what's there.

Keeping dozen in preference to ten has got to be a good thing. Toss the unsuited 4-6. What is the difference in average of 4-6 or 4-7 to opponent crib? 4-7 does have the lower average at 4.997 (695). 4-6 wades in at 5.059 (424). All averages are those recorded in live play and reflect the bias, hunches, etc. of humans. So about 60/1000 of a point seperate them. Giving up two points in hand and sacrificing hand potential as well to save that meager crib tally is not wise. Why is the 4-6 not the discard combnation that many fear? Dealer is not able to put a five in the crib often. In fact of the most 10 frequent dealer discards, none include a five spot. That five works with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, other fives 6-7, and all of those X-pointers. So in most cases, it will be the starter card five that bites you. Lead the 7 of hearts, take pegs as offered, and if not there fake the flush with the 8. Don't pair an eight for the count of 23. 8 pegs for the dealer is possible and that could be very damaging to non-dealer in this position. Protect your interests with the discard and the pegging choices.

Iys got to be the unsuited gapper for me. The difference between the expected averages in opponent's box is less than �pt so is not worth sacrificing 2pts in hand for. Besides if we keep the dozen and hit the 24pts we'll be in position for our next deal.

At 46-46* playing a Saafe strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Defense----Hand---Pegs---Crib----Total--W5 %--W6 %
6-7-7-8*__14.74+(-2.61)+(-4.99)=7.14___23.6__39.2
6-6-7-8___12.96+(-2.85)+(-4.16)=5.95___19.4__37.3

Defense-------L5 %---L6 %
6-7-7-8*____20.4___39.4
6-6-7-8_____18.1___39.6

* = unsuited 4-6

6-7-7-8 is 1.19pt better for expected averages and several percent for Winning chances. The small amount 6-6-7-8 is better for Loss %s does not counter-weigh these factors so I'll select the unsuited 4-6 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 7H and play Optimally:

Lead-----Net Peg Pts.
7__________(-1.10)
8__________(-1.53)
6__________(-1.73)

This is one of those hands in which I'd throw my discards so fast that my opponent might comment on it.

Maybe I'd take an extra half of a second distinguishing the 6 of spades and 6 of clubs. Maybe.