*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 128|
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Joined: October 2008
Saturday 3:16 AM
Nothing against Toss 7-8, but in our Own Crib, Toss 2-3 is as good or better.
But more importantly I think is that with Pone only needing a Baker's Dozen, methinks the FLUSH ought to be safer during the pegging.
Joined: June 2013
Saturday 3:32 AM
*A double run worth keeping, or not?
*As John says above, 3478 should be a safer pegger due to a wider spread of cards.
*7-4 and 3-8 elevens should Pone have the corresponding hand.
Joined: July 2016
Saturday 3:46 AM
Remember the other day I talked myself out of keeping the “much superior hand.” Well; same thing today. Safety in numbers? And I may just need that (30-3) play at the end of the first play series.
Yes, with only 13 known points it’s cautious offense for me, and a 4 on any X-card lead.
Joined: April 2008
Saturday 4:13 AM
If I want a better chance on a next hand I like to use that defensive eleven to keep opponent shorter. Plus that 2-3 in the crib on fourth seems to add up good. dec
Joined: April 2011
Saturday 4:38 AM
i didn’t think this was even close. Defense to the lead.
Joined: March 2016
Saturday 4:46 AM
I agree with those who chose the Flush for all the reasons mentioned.
Joined: March 2008
Saturday 4:59 AM
I hate tossing the 78, but I need the points. Lead the 3, and I hope the dealer replies with an 8.
Joined: October 2007
Saturday 3:20 PM
2-3D or 7-8?:
3C-4-7-8: 8pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 14¾pts
2-3-3-4: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 14½pts
3C-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 00.20pt.
2-3-3-4: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts.
Both hands should peg well and the flush will be had to read and has magic elevens.
Pone only needs 13pts to score out so I'll play Defense to hold them back.
The flush starts with ¼pt more but 2-3-3-4 has guaranteed improwvement and 39 cuts for 12-17pts. The flush may peg better Defensively but even so I'll throw the 7-8.
Joined: February 2008
Saturday 3:30 PM
At 97*-108 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
2-3-3-4 is 1.34pt better for expected averages and is very much better for Win %s although the flush is somewhat better for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.
After the A cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
Joined: November 2008
Saturday 6:13 PM
Like the double run (all small cards here) and based on my scant empirical data, there is only .25 hundredths difference in - pegs. This hand plays well on X-point leads and does pretty well on mid cards as well. If X lead, will play the four, forcing a five off the play. Will play 3C on 6-7-8-9 if led. If a five is led, would play the deuce (8 spot in crib). If an Ace is led, would play 3C. If a deuce is led, would play the four spot. If a trey is led, would pair. If a four spot is led, will dump the deuce. Even though cards are tightly bunched, opponent is likely to play cards unlike these since I have two key connectors (3-3)in this run of small cards. Know that I have dealer guaranteed peg, 10 points in hand, and a minimum of two points in crib. That puts me at 110. Although likely to have 5-7 in crib with the typical mid card/X-pointer to my crib (9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, 6-Q, 6-10, 8-K, 8-Q, or even 7-K, 7-Q, or 7-10). Have got two huge challenges. One is that RAS needs some pegs if crib does not produce 5 points or more. Besides that I do not want opponent to have the deal any closer than 116. That means that I must limit non[-dealer to 8 holes (pegs and hand score). What are chances of doing that? That's 1 to 2.5 not in my favor. Nine points for non-dealer is 50/50 with pone at 117 with the upcoming pegging advantage as dealer. Cribbage is a game of many challenges and that feature is a major contributor to the wonder of this game.