Yesterday's results
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| Total votes: 122 | |||||||
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| dec 1898 votes Joined: April 2008 |      ![]() Monday 3:07 AM I did notice the clubs there. Thou shall play my position first. 23 cuts makes this a better hand (I really do not want to see the five here) vs the five and those 16 facecards somewhere out there awaiting the crib. I did ponder the 4-7 for a second. Lead the seven it looks like it might work out for the better here. dec |
| wb8mkv 1013 votes Joined: October 2009 |      ![]() Monday 4:06 AM I keep the double run......... |
| JQT 1132 votes Joined: October 2008 |      ![]() Monday 4:13 AM Join the crowd; lead the 7 of Hearts. |
| Gougie00 1751 votes Joined: March 2008 |      ![]() Monday 4:22 AM Unless you know a 5 will be cut, this is the why to play it. |
| glmccuskey 687 votes Joined: April 2011 |      ![]() Monday 4:38 AM Not much to think about here. Will lead the 8 of hearts and pair a seven response if needed. |
| bbaer1 647 votes Joined: February 2011 |      ![]() Monday 6:30 AM Keeping the dozen. Nice cut! |
| MikeA 989 votes Joined: October 2009 |      ![]() Monday 7:59 AM Pretty easy decision. |
| LoneStarPegger 99 votes Joined: January 2008 |      ![]() Monday 8:35 AM Ditto! |
| dmland12 429 votes Joined: March 2011 |      ![]() Monday 9:17 AM Toss 46 here as well. 46 is one of those discards that some people seem to be scared of, but probably shouldn't be. It's a below average discard to our opp's crib, sure, but generally not worth giving up much in hand over.
If it were later, say 96-96, I'd consider going the more defensive route and toss 4-7, but it's still early, and we might as well keep the best hand, which also gives us a shot at making the 24 pts we need to get to 70. As it is, we cut a 2 which gets us to +16 in hand. It would be nice to pick up some more in the pegging, so I'll lead a 7 and take what's there. |
| Ras2829 1282 votes Joined: November 2008 |      ![]() Monday 9:38 AM Keeping dozen in preference to ten has got to be a good thing. Toss the unsuited 4-6. What is the difference in average of 4-6 or 4-7 to opponent crib? 4-7 does have the lower average at 4.997 (695). 4-6 wades in at 5.059 (424). All averages are those recorded in live play and reflect the bias, hunches, etc. of humans. So about 60/1000 of a point seperate them. Giving up two points in hand and sacrificing hand potential as well to save that meager crib tally is not wise. Why is the 4-6 not the discard combnation that many fear? Dealer is not able to put a five in the crib often. In fact of the most 10 frequent dealer discards, none include a five spot. That five works with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, other fives 6-7, and all of those X-pointers. So in most cases, it will be the starter card five that bites you. Lead the 7 of hearts, take pegs as offered, and if not there fake the flush with the 8. Don't pair an eight for the count of 23. 8 pegs for the dealer is possible and that could be very damaging to non-dealer in this position. Protect your interests with the discard and the pegging choices. |
| Coeurdelion 1667 votes Joined: October 2007 |      ![]() Monday 10:33 AM Iys got to be the unsuited gapper for me. The difference between the expected averages in opponent's box is less than ˝pt so is not worth sacrificing 2pts in hand for. Besides if we keep the dozen and hit the 24pts we'll be in position for our next deal. |
| HalscribCLX 1459 votes Joined: February 2008 |      ![]() Monday 10:49 AM At 46-46* playing a Saafe strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense----Hand---Pegs---Crib----Total--W5 %--W6 % 6-7-7-8*__14.74+(-2.61)+(-4.99)=7.14___23.6__39.2 6-6-7-8___12.96+(-2.85)+(-4.16)=5.95___19.4__37.3 Defense-------L5 %---L6 % 6-7-7-8*____20.4___39.4 6-6-7-8_____18.1___39.6 * = unsuited 4-6 6-7-7-8 is 1.19pt better for expected averages and several percent for Winning chances. The small amount 6-6-7-8 is better for Loss %s does not counter-weigh these factors so I'll select the unsuited 4-6 to discard. After the 2 cut I'll lead the 7H and play Optimally: Lead-----Net Peg Pts. 7__________(-1.10) 8__________(-1.53) 6__________(-1.73) |
| Jimulacrum 23 votes Joined: April 2013 |      ![]() Monday 1:41 PM This is one of those hands in which I'd throw my discards so fast that my opponent might comment on it.
Maybe I'd take an extra half of a second distinguishing the 6 of spades and 6 of clubs. Maybe. |
| Andy (muesli64) 705 votes Joined: August 2009 |      ![]() Monday 4:34 PM No challenge! |