*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
|Total votes: 161|
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Joined: March 2016
Friday 3:08 AM
it pays to Flush! Start with 9 points vs. 8 points (A-3) and a safer toss to dealer today. Expected averages favor A-7 toss. This hand has more cuts for 13 or 16 points (4444, 333, 555, 666, 77).
It has been mentioned by Ras that dealer is most likely (if he has these cards) will toss 2-3 into his crib. So I wouldn't be likely to toss A-3 his way.
Joined: April 2008
Friday 3:42 AM
Yes A-7 might be a big hit or big miss but more likely to not produce then A-3. dec
Joined: March 2008
Friday 3:52 AM
Never break a double run? How about if its the hardest double run to defend? I'll hold the flush and lead the 3. My goal would be hole 60 and I might get there.
Joined: June 2013
Friday 4:20 AM
Many on here, and I dare say more widely too, do not like to discard a 7. With a second 7 out of circulation though, I reckon A-7 might be safe enough today.
7 lead from my 7-6-3 sixteen.
Joined: April 2011
Friday 5:03 AM
Iíll lead the six leaving my three to get out of trouble or to get a fifteen if the six is paired.
Joined: July 2016
Friday 9:00 AM
Definitely keep the flush with 8 cuts for 16. Playing defense after the cut, as thereís no way I will peg enough to reach 69/70.
Now Greg mentions that the 5-6-7-7 is the hardest double run to defend. I did not know that. But it makes sense. However this flush will not be easy to defend either. Garyís solution is to lead his 6. But I prefer to lead my 3, denying the Dealer the low lying fruit, hoping I donít get jammed up there after.
Joined: October 2008
Friday 9:20 AM
Usually, we're willing to give up a full point in order to retain a FLUSH.
But today, we can hold a full point EXTRA by keeping the FLUSH.
And in addition, not only do we hold a better hand with the FLUSH, but we give away less to our Opponent in the process.
In summary: There's nothing not to like about holding onto the FLUSH today.
Joined: November 2008
Friday 1:29 PM
It pays to flush! Start with 9 points in holding the flush. A point often missed by those who are afflicted with "double-run" hypnosis" is that any card which scores 16 points with the double run also tallies 16 with the flush. The trey allows us to escape in the pegging if we choose. There is no escape card with the double run. Since we are already at hole 48, its. def., def., def. for me. Second street CPZ is 43-47. Dealer is at the beginning of that zone and we are beyond it awaiting the upcoming deal.
Joined: May 2016
Friday 2:44 PM
I'm clearly with the majority. But my question is with the lead. We have three panelists all advocating different leads. Lead the 3? 6? 7? I'm with Ras. I'm on defense here. Which lead works best on defense? The weakest part of my game is pegging. Which card to lead and why??
Joined: February 2008
Saturday 2:44 AM
At 48-43* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crb____Total____W5 %____W6 %
Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
The flush is better for expected averages by 1.58pts and is appreciably better for Win %s nd Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select A-7S to discard.
After the K cu I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:
Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.