*** This hand was suggested by cwed
|Total votes: 148|
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Joined: March 2016
Saturday 3:11 AM
Every cut increases the value of this hand except a 7. Expected average hand is 9.11 points and a combined value of 3.22 points (exp. average hand minus crib).
Joined: June 2013
Saturday 3:34 AM
I'll try 8-9 rather than 8-5.
4 lead from my 4-2-5 eleven.
Joined: April 2008
Saturday 3:49 AM
Back postings from other querries have mentioned 8-9 as an average risk discard . Better then throwing a five, keeping the same amount to start and to attempt to keep dealer back a three card defensive eleven. dec
Joined: March 2008
Saturday 5:34 AM
30 points ahead means I can be carefree with the discard. Since there isnt an obvious discard here, I'll chance tossing the 89 and hold the flush. Lead the 4, and play off.
Joined: November 2016
Saturday 5:49 AM
It pays. It pays. It pays to flush. Happy Saturday.
Joined: April 2011
Saturday 5:49 AM
I'll lead the four.
Joined: April 2016
Saturday 6:12 AM
With the strong position I will avoid tossing the connecting 8-9. It appears I am out in the woods with my choice and will hide behind a tree this morning.
Joined: July 2016
Saturday 7:46 AM
With a sweet 30 point lead will play a bit of offense. But there is certainly no need to toss a (5-8). Must protect that lead as well. (5-8) has a much higher crib average than (8-9) and can never be less than 2.
Lead the 9! Remember what Ras said a while back about leading the 8 or 9 when you have three cards with a rank of 5 or less. Good things sometimes happen. The 9 is a component of the three card eleven.
Joined: April 2015
Saturday 9:20 AM
I am very excited to have registered for my very first sanctioned tournament. My grassroots club will be hosting a one-day event on Aug 12 in Surrey, BC, Canada. Anyone here like Vancouver? Held just 35 km away from downtown Vancouver, and about 7 minutes from the I5 highway in washington (depending on border traffic). Can't wait.
Joined: November 2008
Saturday 10:08 AM
It's been said very well by others above. With a 30-point lead, it's offense, offense, offense for me. It pays to flush and this is a pretty good one as value increases with 12 of the 13 ranks. As with all flushes the remaining cards in suit will add value regardless of rank. Will lead the four; deuce would be my second choice. Regarding the 9 being the worst lead in cribbage, agree with some exceptions. If needing pegs, lead the 9 from 2-3-4-9, 2-3-3-9, 3-3-3-9 or similar. High percentage chance to get the count to 22 on your second card played. Then you can follow how that might unwind.
Joined: October 2007
Saturday 10:59 AM
5-8 or 8-9S to starts with 6pts:
2-4-5-9H: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.86) = +¼pt
2-4-9-9: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = -½pt
2-4-5-9H: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/11pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts.
2-4-9-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts = 34.8% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.
I think the flush will peg better and be harder to read.
We have a substantial lead of a whole street. Depending on whether we needed a skunk or not I'll play Defense for the pegging.
2-4-5-9H starts with ¾pt more than 2-4-9-9, has very much better potential and although the maximum is slightly lower it still has 16 cuts for a good hand. Also it ought to peg slightly better even if pegging Defensively. So I'll throw the 8-9S.
Joined: February 2008
Saturday 11:39 AM
At 56-26* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %____W6 %
Offense______L5 %____L6 %
2-4-5-9H is 2.72pts better for expected averages and is very much better for Win %s and only worse for Loss %s by the slimmest of margins. So I'll select 8-9S to discard.
After the K cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:
Lead______Our Pegging Pts.
Joined: August 2009
Saturday 2:00 PM
Is there an alternative?
Joined: November 2016
Saturday 6:27 PM
I couldn't give the dealer a 8-9. I always get nervous with such a discard. I will discard the 5-8. Still risky but not as risky as two touching cards.