*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
|Total votes: 122|
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Joined: April 2008
Monday 3:07 AM
I did notice the clubs there. Thou shall play my position first. 23 cuts makes this a better hand (I really do not want to see the five here) vs the five and those 16 facecards somewhere out there awaiting the crib. I did ponder the 4-7 for a second. Lead the seven it looks like it might work out for the better here. dec
Joined: October 2009
Monday 4:06 AM
I keep the double run.........
Joined: October 2008
Monday 4:13 AM
Join the crowd; lead the 7 of Hearts.
Joined: March 2008
Monday 4:22 AM
Unless you know a 5 will be cut, this is the why to play it.
Joined: April 2011
Monday 4:38 AM
Not much to think about here. Will lead the 8 of hearts and pair a seven response if needed.
Joined: February 2011
Monday 6:30 AM
Keeping the dozen. Nice cut!
Joined: October 2009
Monday 7:59 AM
Pretty easy decision.
Joined: January 2008
Monday 8:35 AM
Joined: March 2011
Monday 9:17 AM
Toss 46 here as well. 46 is one of those discards that some people seem to be scared of, but probably shouldn't be. It's a below average discard to our opp's crib, sure, but generally not worth giving up much in hand over.
If it were later, say 96-96, I'd consider going the more defensive route and toss 4-7, but it's still early, and we might as well keep the best hand, which also gives us a shot at making the 24 pts we need to get to 70.
As it is, we cut a 2 which gets us to +16 in hand. It would be nice to pick up some more in the pegging, so I'll lead a 7 and take what's there.
Joined: November 2008
Monday 9:38 AM
Keeping dozen in preference to ten has got to be a good thing. Toss the unsuited 4-6. What is the difference in average of 4-6 or 4-7 to opponent crib? 4-7 does have the lower average at 4.997 (695). 4-6 wades in at 5.059 (424). All averages are those recorded in live play and reflect the bias, hunches, etc. of humans. So about 60/1000 of a point seperate them. Giving up two points in hand and sacrificing hand potential as well to save that meager crib tally is not wise. Why is the 4-6 not the discard combnation that many fear? Dealer is not able to put a five in the crib often. In fact of the most 10 frequent dealer discards, none include a five spot. That five works with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, other fives 6-7, and all of those X-pointers. So in most cases, it will be the starter card five that bites you. Lead the 7 of hearts, take pegs as offered, and if not there fake the flush with the 8. Don't pair an eight for the count of 23. 8 pegs for the dealer is possible and that could be very damaging to non-dealer in this position. Protect your interests with the discard and the pegging choices.
Joined: October 2007
Monday 10:33 AM
Iys got to be the unsuited gapper for me. The difference between the expected averages in opponent's box is less than ˝pt so is not worth sacrificing 2pts in hand for. Besides if we keep the dozen and hit the 24pts we'll be in position for our next deal.
Joined: February 2008
Monday 10:49 AM
At 46-46* playing a Saafe strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense----Hand---Pegs---Crib----Total--W5 %--W6 %
Defense-------L5 %---L6 %
* = unsuited 4-6
6-7-7-8 is 1.19pt better for expected averages and several percent for Winning chances. The small amount 6-6-7-8 is better for Loss %s does not counter-weigh these factors so I'll select the unsuited 4-6 to discard.
After the 2 cut I'll lead the 7H and play Optimally:
Lead-----Net Peg Pts.
Joined: April 2013
Monday 1:41 PM
This is one of those hands in which I'd throw my discards so fast that my opponent might comment on it.
Maybe I'd take an extra half of a second distinguishing the 6 of spades and 6 of clubs. Maybe.
Joined: August 2009
Monday 4:34 PM