*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 143|
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Joined: April 2008
Friday 3:06 AM
If I discard J-5 do I still have a chance at a hand that could produce twelve? May have to play into a chance to get some pegging points now. dec
Joined: June 2013
Friday 3:29 AM
I'd like the 5 card in my crib.
Very fortunate with the cut.
Joined: March 2016
Friday 3:33 AM
I like tossing 5-8 and holding A-2-2-J. Combined averages favor this slightly. Hand has 31 cuts that improve from 4 points to a maximum of 14/15 points. Crib improves with a cut of a 2, 5, 7, 8, and 15 face cards.
Joined: October 2008
Friday 4:15 AM
When you can get a 5 Card into your Crib for "free," do it!
Joined: May 2016
Friday 5:15 AM
Small hand rule. Hands of 8 or less (we've got one), don't give up points and take into account the total value of hand/crib (6 points either keep of 8-2-2-5 or A-2-2-J with the 5 in the crib). Unless Ras has repealed/amended the rule, I think this fits perfectly and keeping the A-2-2 together makes for a chance of the cut we so deservedly got. (A rarity in cribbage...LOL.)
Joined: March 2008
Friday 5:23 AM
Down by 13, its time for a little magic. Presto! A 3 starter! I will try to parlay the 2's at the end. I just might be back in the game.
Joined: March 2009
Friday 5:58 AM
Not crazy about 58 but it is better than AJ.
Joined: April 2011
Friday 6:00 AM
Only giving up two points to throw 5-J. Why not? Nice cut.
Joined: July 2016
Friday 8:09 AM
What JQT said. Also, our opponent is only minus 2. I need to think defense here. Getting that 5 out of my hand can only be good on defense.
Great cut. I have 17 known points. Probably 3 or 4 more with at least 2 key connectors in my crib. I’ll play defense to the lead a bit. I would like to parlay the deuces at the end. But not desperate to do so.
Joined: June 2016
Friday 8:45 AM
With the 3 cut, I don't expect a crib more than 4 to 6 points so I will play defense. I have a guaranteed 1 peg but the 2-2 may give me more since I don't expect the pone to have another. I should end the hand around hole 93-95 if the pone plays a risky hand.
Joined: December 2017
Friday 9:24 AM
I liked suited 5-J in the crib though it looks like this was the inferior choice by about .3
In such a marginal position and with this hand I'd play "optimally". I want to get past 86 while keeping pone behind 96.
Joined: January 2018
Friday 9:57 AM
Today is a good example of how this site has helped me improve my game. My initial instinct was to maximize my hand, keep the 2,2,5,8, and let the crib land where it may. But, from my time spent here, realized the J,A in the crib was probably pretty useless, and that if I was willing to gamble 2 points, I would have a 5 in my crib, and keep the A,2,2, together for a possible dbl run. And voila, great spinner.
Joined: November 2008
Friday 10:16 AM
Contrary to popular belief 5-8 is a strong discard to own crib. Sure the 5-J is even stronger. The 5-J just won't recover the potential loss in hand score with the added crib value. The five spot with anything averages very near 6 points. and the 5-8 average is 5.564 (550) 16/91 scores 2 points 7.09% and 8 or more 26.542%. Those are good numbers and it scores 8 or more nearly 4 times as frequently as it scores a mere two points. Good puzzle james500 as it reflects choices commonly found in play. With opponent at 84 (needing 11 to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99) will peg optimally.
Joined: October 2007
Friday 1:44 PM
It might seem as if it's a straight choice between 2-2-5-8 (A-J) and A-2-2-J (5-8) but perhaps A-2-2-8 (5-J) is worth looking at as well:
2-2-5-8: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 9¾pts
A-2-2-J: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 9½pts
A-2-2-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts
2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 22, 555, 888 = 8 cuts.
A-2-2-J: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.
A-2-2-8: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/10pts with 22, 3333, 4444, 555 = 13 cuts.
I think with a 3-card magic eleven and 3 low-card and a mid-card A-2-2-8 will peg the best.
We're well into 3rd street CPZ and Pone is a little short. I'll play Defense to keep them that way.
2-2-5-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt over A-2-2-J and ¾pts over A-2-2-8. However A-2-2-8 has the most cuts for improvement and 13 for 6-10pts. It also should peg well. I don't think it will make up the ½-¾pt though. A-2-2-J has less cuts for improvement but 4 more cuts than 2-2-5-8 for an average/good hand and a better maximum at 14pts.
With 3 low-cards and a knave I also think it will peg well. So I'll throw the 5-8.
Joined: February 2008
Friday 2:10 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-2-J is 0.38pt best for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 5-8 to discard.
After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.