Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
37*-33  ?
43%
21%
15%
6%
4%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 189

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dec
3484 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:13 AM
I will try to bank on the crib and limit non dealer on the pegging. dec
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BigFoot Bob
304 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Saturday 4:16 AM
Take the points available and load the 3-5 to the crib should boost some results.
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Rosemarie44
362 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 4:22 AM
I like the 5 in the crib. This hand is slightly higher in combined value. Optimal strategy. No help with the cut
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duke62
689 votes

Joined: September 2014

   
Saturday 5:20 AM
"Discovered" the 3-5 toss from this hand a couple years ago. Like many other things in this game, the 6 cut is what keeps me second guessing myself...
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james500
1323 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 5:42 AM
Mine's a similar story to duke62 above. I learned about the 3-5 option from this site a few years ago, and it's served me well. Previously I would've been in the A-X camp.
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glmccuskey
2182 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 6:23 AM
This gives us the most points and should defend better.
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Gougie00
3050 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 6:23 AM
I'm not exactly unique with my "Al Miller" ploy. It works a lot of the time, but not with a 6 cut.
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Inushtuk1
169 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Saturday 7:47 AM
It's close between 5-10, and 3-5, but I prefer it this way. It's true that A-4-X-X defends better than 3-4-5-X, but A-3-4-X defends just as well as A-4-X-X, but also has the 3-4 to trap a 5. I can have my cake and eat it too.

Playing off with that 6 cut.
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Coeurdelion
3035 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 12:25 PM
I think 3-5 will be better than A-4. Will it be worth keeping 5pts with 3-4-5-Q or perhaps A-3-4-Q (5-10) for the better pegging?:

A-4-10-Q: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

3-5-10-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

3-4-5-Q: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 8½pts

A-3-4-Q: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-4-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 9/10pts with AAA, 444, JJJJ = 10 cuts.

3-5-10-Q: improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 31 cuts up to 9/10pts with 555, JJJJ = 7 cuts.

3-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/10/12pts with 333, 444, 555, QQQ = 12 cuts.

A-3-4-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 555 = 10 cuts

Pegging:

A-3-4-Q should peg the best but I think the other hands will peg reasonably well.

Position:

We would like to be at 70pts for our next deal. That's 33pts, 7pts above the average so we need to score but also would like to keep pone from reaching second street CPZ so I'll play Optimally.

Summary:

3-4-5-Q has the best potential with more cuts and a higher maximum. But will it make up the 1½pts it has in starting value. I think it may be close. A-3-4-Q has 10 cuts that increase the score to 7/8pts which is a tremendous improvement from 2pts it also has six more (444, QQQ) which will score 6pts; still a good increase. However, I think I'll take the opportunity to put a 5 in the box and throw 3-5.
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HalscribCLX
2781 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 1:24 PM
At 37*-33 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-3-4-Q___4.72+1.39+6.50=12.61____19.5____37.5
A-3-4-10__4.72+1.37+6.47=12.55____19.5____37.2
3-4-5-Q___7.98+1.30+3.10=12.39____19.6____38.4
A-4-10-Q__6.17+0.39+5.78=12.35____20.4____41.1
3-4-5-10__7.98+1.28+3.07=12.34____19.5____38.0

Optimal_______L6 %____L7 %
A-3-4-Q_______17.4____37.0
A-3-4-10______17.7____37.3
3-4-5-Q_______16.9____36.1
A-4-10-Q______15.1____33.5
3-4-5-10______17.1____36.5

A-3-4-Q is best for dynamic expected averages by 0.06pt over A-3-4-10, 0.22pt over 3-4-5-Q and 0.26pt over A-4-10-Q. But in this critical board position with Pone only 10pts away from the CPZ and Pone would normally average 10pts the Win %s and Loss %s are important. They are significantly better for A-4-10-Q. Therefore I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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ken
198 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Saturday 1:24 PM
I pick my ace and queen
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Ras2829
2545 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 3:19 PM
For years RAS considered this to be a no brainer. Then some head scratching and query results on the Cribbage Prof got my attention. The choices would vary dependent on the strategy chosen. From hole 37 with opponent needing 10 points to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47), my choice would be optimal. Even though I don't like the 6 cut as is of no known benefit to hand/crib, will play off the lead as indicated by HalscribCLX above. On the surface, spreading the cards from A-Q, starting with six points rather than a lesser amount appears to be a defensive choice. How can I incorporate into my class presentations as most folks are still struggling with discards, have no offensive pegging game, and little understanding of positon? Is there a way to instruct as to strategy prior to the starter card and possible adaptation after the starter is seen? Presently the series of live classes, resultant U-tube videos include sections on discarding to own crib, discarding to opponent crib, basic pegging, pegging traps, advanced pegging, percentages, psychology and logic, Theory of 26, and Critical Position Zones. Course is no spread over nine weeks. Is that enough? What are your thought as am planning my last series of classes this fall after my 80th birthday? If you wish to respond privately, just send me an E-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
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