Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
56-43*  ?
52%
28%
12%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 157

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JQT
2276 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 3:47 AM
Well, the FLUSH was 'almost' up to the task yesterday, so let's try it again.

The danger of Toss (6 8) should be somewhat mitigated by the presence of all of these other 'Middle' Cards.

Lead the 8.
Reply
Rosemarie44
835 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 4:09 AM
I agree, let's go with the flush today. Yes, lots of middle cards to soften the danger of tossing 6-8.
Reply
dec
4055 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:31 AM
keep the flushing twelve and attain that next par. Murphy's crib here? At least that cut should'nt help the crib hardly. dec
Reply
james500
1774 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:23 AM
12 points pretty much guarantees that I'll be in position for my deal. 6-9 shouldn't be too disastrous considering the other cards out of circulation.

8d lead.
Reply
Gougie00
3517 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:30 AM
Just trying to mess up the works for my opponent. The diamond run gives me 12 and him 0. The 4 is of no value and maybe not the dealer either. Lead the 8 and try to stay out of pegging.
Reply
glmccuskey
2652 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 5:42 AM
Lead the eight and peg what you can get. Your guaranteed to be dealing from 68. I few pegs would be nice.
Reply
Inushtuk1
556 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 6:48 AM
I agree with Gary. Lead the 8 and take what you can get.
Reply
Jazzselke
985 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 7:31 AM
Yep, play your position and get to 70 or beyond. Match any card for 20 points.
Reply
horus93
129 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 8:09 AM
I don't want to toss 8-9 with our opponent only a point short of par. Defense after the cut
Reply
wasa
866 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 8:10 AM
Also went with the flush. Agree with others - holding middle cards helps minimize any damage when tossing the 6-8. Hopefully pone didn't toss 7-7
Reply
dgergens
99 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 10:20 AM
Everyone speaks of the danger of tossing 6,8 in pone's crib. But to keep the double run, you have to toss and 8,9 or a 6,9. Aren't those more dangerous than 8,6? To me the flush just makes it a no brainer by giving you back most of the points you sacrifice by not keeping the double run. Not having the flush would make the offence/defense question harder to decide. For me. Probably not for this bunch.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3463 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 2:57 PM
I think its between the flush and 6-7-8-8:

6D-7-8D-9: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = 6½pts

6-7-8-8: 12pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = 5¾pts

Potential:

6D-7-8D-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 66, 777, 88, 999, 10101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 20pts with 66, 777, 88, 999 = 10 cuts. Plus 1pt extra for 9 diamonds = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 66, 777, 88, 999 = 22 cuts = 26/46 = 47.8% up to 16/20/21/24pts with AAAA, 66, 777, 88, 999 = 14 cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg slightly better than the double-run.

Position:

Opponent is virtually in position and we need 14pts to reach 3rd street positional hole. Starting with 12pts we should reach this and if we get a good cut we might play Defense but I feel with either hand it might pay to play Offense.

Summary:

The flush starts with ¾pt more than 6-7-8-8 and has 4 more cuts for improvement. It has only 10 cuts for a very good hand and the maximum is not as high but all achieve 20pts. With a 6, 7, 8, 9 in hand there will be quite a lot of negative delta as with most of the discards. Also it has the 9 diamonds for the flush and will perhaps peg better. So I'll throw the black 6-8.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3232 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 4:05 PM
At 56-43* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W4 %____W5 %
6D-7-8D-9_14.46+1.30+(-4.48)=11.28____21.9____61.4
6D-7-8-8__14.48+1.11+(-5.49)=10.10____20.7____58.8
6-6-7-8___12.83+1.30+(-4.71)= 9.42____16.6____53.5
7-8-8-9___14.04+1.15+(-6.13)= 9.06____19.0____56.2

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
6D-7-8D-9_____0.5_____3.8
6D-7-8-8______0.5_____4.6
6-6-7-8_______0.5_____5.1
7-8-8-9_______0.7_____5.5

The flush is best for expected averages by 1.18pt and is slightly best for both Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 6c-8S to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
6__________________1.46
8__________________1.22
7__________________1.16
9__________________1.02
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