*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
|Total votes: 148|
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Joined: October 2008
Sunday 3:32 AM
I suppose some adventurous souls might try to Keep (5 6 J J) but I'm not feeling it.
I'll lead the Jack and probably proceed to regret it.
Joined: June 2013
Sunday 3:33 AM
I'll keep the Jc for the better chance of the bonus point, crib flushes are rare.
Joined: April 2008
Sunday 3:36 AM
I might do this one live today I might not, depends on my opponent. dec
Joined: December 2008
Sunday 3:40 AM
If i were to be allowed a do over, I would keep the JC for an increased possibility of the extra point. I thus agree with James whose comment I read as I was typing mine
Joined: March 2016
Sunday 3:42 AM
Off to go to town. Agree with all other contributors.
Joined: March 2008
Sunday 4:19 AM
8-J as opposed to what? I see no other logical alternative.
Joined: April 2011
Sunday 9:35 AM
Joined: March 2009
Sunday 9:58 AM
Seems like running a fake flush would outperform holding the Jack of Clubs. Good discussion!
Joined: October 2007
Sunday 11:34 AM
I think its either 8-JH or 8-JC although perhaps 5-6-J-J is worth a look:
4-5-6-JC: 7pts - 4˝pts (Schell: 4.59) = 2˝pts
4-5-6-JH: 7pts - 4˝pts (Schell: 4.59) = 2˝pts
5-6-J-J: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = 1pt
4-5-6-JH: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.
4-5-6-JC: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.
5-6-J-J: Improves with 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/11/12pts with 444, 555, 7777, JJ = 12 cuts. Plus 21 hearts and clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.
I think 4-5-6-J will peg better than 5-6-J-J. 4-5-6-JH has the slight benefit of being able to fake a flush.
We have a good lead and are in position so I'll play Defense.
5-6-J-J has less cuts for improvement, a lower maximum and starts with 1˝pts less. The only plus side is the ˝pt potential for holding two Js. Its out of the picture. As there are 3 additional hearts its worth keepng the JC in our hand over the JH and keeping it out of Dealer's box. The fact that it is suited with 8H-JH will only detract about 0.03pt. So its 8H-JH for me.
Joined: November 2014
Sunday 12:05 PM
As others mentioned, I'm keeping the Jc for the slightly better chance of nobs. Not too worried about crib flush
Joined: February 2008
Sunday 1:09 PM
At 44-26* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense____Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total____W6 %____W7 %
Defense________L6 %____L7 %
4-5-6-JC is 0.10pt better than 4-5-6-JH and is very slightly better for Win %s. So I'll select the suited 8-J to discard.
After the 3 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Optimally (cautious offense):
Lead________Net Pegging Pts.
Joined: July 2016
Sunday 8:07 PM
Congrats to Dan Seike. He just got his Like Masters at Blackstone today.
Joined: November 2008
Sunday 9:56 PM
With an 18npointlead and already at hole 44, will play an optimal pegging strategy and retain the Jc. Agree with the lead of the 4 in an optimal choice. If playing offense would have led the Jack, holding 4-5-6 intact.