*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
|Total votes: 153|
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Joined: April 2008
Monday 3:06 AM
Usually not keen on a 3-7 discard, but I like the amount of cuts for this hand. Lead that four again. dec
Joined: March 2016
Monday 3:08 AM
Lots of choices Ras. Going with tossing 9-9 to dealer today holding A-3-4-7. Only cuts of 6 or 9 do not help hand but really help dealer's crib! More cuts for improvement. Hand has the highest expected average. Going offense in this position the nines must go.
Joined: June 2013
Monday 3:18 AM
It appears that I've made the same choice as dec, which bodes well.
Would've been tempted by A-3-4-7 (9-9) if dealing though.
AAA,2222,444,5555,6666,99 and 16*X = 36 helpful cuts.
36 cuts = 6 "blocks" of 6 cards =
36 cuts = 6*13% =
36 cuts = 78% of the 46 possible cuts.
Joined: April 2016
Monday 4:32 AM
Just felt like the best choice.
Joined: March 2008
Monday 5:14 AM
Starting out with a fizzle again. I wanted to keep that 34 together, and 99 seemed to be the best 2 other cards to hold. A7 is usually a pretty good stifle toss to the other guy's crib.
Ugh... lead a 9. Perhaps I can trap a 5 or a 2 with the 34.
Joined: April 2011
Monday 5:28 AM
I normally hold it this way. I'll lead the four.
|Mumble T Pegger|
Joined: January 2015
Monday 7:22 AM
Playing for the max 10 points out of this mess means tossing A-4, A-3, or 3-4, which I don't like. Prefer tossing 4-7 than A-7, for pretty much the same risk/reward scenario. Will lead the 3.
Joined: March 2009
Monday 7:34 AM
Agree with most commentators, best of a bad situation.
Joined: July 2016
Monday 8:42 AM
What a horrible time to be dealt this mitt! Going with the hand with the highest average hand, and most cuts for improvement. These four card (15-2) hands, if you hit one of the four, your hand will always at least triple in value, and in the case of the 7 cut it quadruples.
We have a three card eleven in A-3-7, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted to lead the 7. They might even get a (15-4) if lucky, or get the (31-2). But I'll lead the more sure 4 to the Ace, to score the (15-2). If paired my 7 covers the play.
BTW: (9-9) to *our crib* has the fourth worst average of the thirteen pairs. Wish I could say the same over the board. It's the exact opposite actually. The (9-9) to our opponent is the 4th *highest* in opponent's crib average from all the pairs. It averages 6.519. I couldn't find any data about what the average number of 2 point cribs it yiellds. Ras will let us know. I hope it's a high number for our sake, but I have a feeling that will not be the case. We'll see. All my fingers and toes are crossed.
Joined: February 2008
Monday 12:17 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-3-4-7 is best for expected averages by 0.16pt and is also best for Win %s. Although its is worst for Loss %s by an appreciable margin because of the risk of the 9-9 discard
as its early in the game I'll put most weight on the expected averages and select 9-9 to discard.
After the A cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:
Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
Joined: October 2007
Monday 3:30 PM
Several ways to keep 2pts but the better ones leave close cards or A-4. A-3-4-7 has both so does it make up for the 9-9 discard?
A-4-9-9: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -3pts
3-4-9-9: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -2¾pts
A-3-4-7: 2pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -4¼pts
A-4-9-9: AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 99 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 2222, 5555, 6666, 99 = 17 cuts.
3-4-9-9: 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 99 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/9pts 2222, 333, 6666, 99 = 13 cuts.
A-3-4-7: AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888 = 21 cuts.
Of these three hands I think A-3-4-7 will peg best.
As Pone we'll be playing Offense to try to improve our position.
A-3-4-7 starts with 1¼pts less than A-4-9-9 but with more cuts for improvement and more for 6-8pts together with the better pegging I think it will make this up. So I'll take the risk and throw 9-9.
Joined: November 2008
Tuesday 12:10 AM
Submitted this puzzle as it represents a most unusual situation. Are you playing offense when holding two points and tossing two? The superior pegging (one of the better pegging hands for non-dealer) and greater hand score more than compensate for the 6+ crib of the 9-9 discard. Based on my empirical data the 9-9 to opponent crib averages 6.519 (206) scores 2 points 30.732%, weighs in at 42.057% in the 3-7 range, scores 8-11 21.367%, tallies 12 or more 5.855%. Does that all equal 100%? Will lead the four spot as it produces the greater chance to peg with this arrangement of cards.