February 14, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk
98*-105  ?
82%
6%
4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 203

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Rosemarie44
613 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:08 AM
Chose to toss A-A which gives us 2 points in the crib and 3 points in the hand to start. This hand has the highest combined average (crib and exp. average hand of 10.73 points. The cut of an 8 adds 2 more points to the hand. Was hoping for a cut of a 5 or face card (T,J.Q).

Happy Valentine's Day!
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BigFoot Bob
537 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Tuesday 3:22 AM
.
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dec
3774 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:27 AM
You could not be pondering J-10 here? If a 10-J-Q would be cut you would be second guessing yourself. dec
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Andy (muesli64)
1276 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:16 AM
Only throw.
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JQT
2070 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:17 AM
We've got to make the most of this, since our 'Three Counts' only get us beyond Victory by about Three Holes.

Meanwhile, Pone can be 50% above average and still fall One Hole short.

Still, we should play with an eye toward DEFENSE. Because 'average' wins for us; and yet it takes 'above average' for Our Opponent to win here.
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Jazzselke
842 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 4:50 AM
Would like to keep the aces for pegging but I don't believe we can give up the points in this situation. Without a crib this could be harder than we would like.
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glmccuskey
2433 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:16 AM
We are to far away to break up these 5 points. I have no choice but to play off in the pegging as I can't pair a face card or 15 a eight.
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Ras2829
2785 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 5:17 AM
Guess HalscribCLX "optimal" strategy will work for me this morning of promised sun. As pointed out by Rosemarie44 above, holding three points with the run and dropping the pair of Aces to the crib is the best way to do that. Based on my scant empirical data, holding 7-10-J-Q is more than a point greater in combined value than if one had discarded the J-Q. If my comments seem a bit disconnected, excuse me as am looking for my boots. Tomorrow is supposed to be a gully washer. Peg with a bit of caution as opponent needs 16 points to win. Once seeing the 8 cut, use extreme caution if opponent leads a mid card, particularly a 7 or 8. By the way that is a significant element which should modify your approach to pegging. Apply this in each situation where the lead appears to be helped substantially by the starter card. A trey lead with another 3 on the deck might be an early warning of 21 points. How might that be? Observing such can be key to turning a few losses into wins. Hope your heart has a well-directed arrow shaft protruding from it this day. That will make it extra happy!
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Gougie00
3299 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:40 AM
Not what I needed here. I needed a 16 hand to put myself as close as possible. Plan B is to play defense.
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james500
1560 votes

Joined: June 2013

Tuesday 6:21 AM
A-A from me too.
Reply
ken
200 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 7:47 AM
I pick my pair of aces
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mfetchCT425
236 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 9:05 AM
Keep max points for hand + crib combined. Toss the aces. I'm going to try and peg (optimally) in order to get as close as I can with first count next deal. Ras, love the term "Gully Washer". Brought a smile to my face. Stay as dry as you can out there.
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Coeurdelion
3255 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 12:30 PM
Quite often the obvious is correct and here there's only one way of starting with 5pts. That is 3+2pts by throwing the Aces. As JQT often says the Aces in the box offer plenty of pin action and although it would be nice to keep them for pegging not at the expense of points in the hand. So its A-A for me as well.
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HalscribCLX
3000 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 1:52 PM
At 98*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs__Crib_Total___W1 %__W2 %
7-10-J-Q___5.22+(-2.41)+5.22=8.03____1.0____38.4
A-10-J-Q___5.52+(-2.52)+3.75=6.75____0.7____31.1
A-A-7-10___3.74+(-2.26)+4.60=6.08____0.6____25.3

Defense______L1 %__L2 %
7-10-J-Q_____8.8____56.9
A-10-J-Q_____7.5____63.9
A-A-7-10____10.8____70.8

7-10-J-Q is best for expected averages, Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select A-A to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Inushtuk1
360 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 3:05 PM
There, that wasn't so hard was it? This was from another live game with my wife. I remembered Ras saying in his notes that we should consider retaining a pair of aces in our hand in small hands with a value of 6 or less. But figured that would not be right here. I don't recall what the starter was, only that my wife led a 10. I thought I should play off, so I paired it rather than playing my 7, thinking there was one less loser that way. You guessed it she tripled my 10 and that gave her enough to go out. Did I mention pegging is not my strong suit?
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