February 14, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk
98*-105  ?
82%
6%
4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 203
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:08 AM
Chose to toss A-A which gives us 2 points in the crib and 3 points in the hand to start. This hand has the highest combined average (crib and exp. average hand of 10.73 points. The cut of an 8 adds 2 more points to the hand. Was hoping for a cut of a 5 or face card (T,J.Q).

Happy Valentine's Day!
Gougie00 says: Happy Valentines Day. The snow is past my knees. Before I pull out of my driveway, I have to scan the horizon like a U-Boat Captain because I cant see what's coming from the driver's seat. 6 more weeks of this stuff ...
Rosemarie44 says: Here we have a reprieve while waiting for the winter storm watch on Wednesday. Where will plows put this added accumulation of snow?
Guest says: Do you kno why the Italian navy has glass bottom boats ?.... So they can see the rest of their navy ........
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:22 AM
.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:27 AM
You could not be pondering J-10 here? If a 10-J-Q would be cut you would be second guessing yourself. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dec. Not J-10, but I did momentarily ponder J-Q. Silly me!
Guest says: saw your post.. sometimes unforced errors from your opponent works also. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:16 AM
Only throw.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:17 AM
We've got to make the most of this, since our 'Three Counts' only get us beyond Victory by about Three Holes.

Meanwhile, Pone can be 50% above average and still fall One Hole short.

Still, we should play with an eye toward DEFENSE. Because 'average' wins for us; and yet it takes 'above average' for Our Opponent to win here.
JQT says: We start out in an AVERAGE position with a far-below-average HAND: The 8s Cut Card however doubles our Hand today, from three up to Six Points, and we're probably going to need every single point we can muster if we are to win this game, since we can only count on Two Points (more) coming from our Crib. Therefore, I'll take any PAIRS during the pegging, even if it risks giving up PAIRS ROYAL. Every point helps us here more than it helps our Opponent.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. Having read my post at 3:05 PM are you still convinced we need to take every pair here? Someone posted the other day he does not like to pair on 4th Street.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:50 AM
Would like to keep the aces for pegging but I don't believe we can give up the points in this situation. Without a crib this could be harder than we would like.
glmccuskey says: Good to see you this weekend Dan.
Jazzselke says: You bet! See you in Reno, can't wait.
Guest says: Me too! S:)
cribbagepogo says: Me too.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:16 AM
We are to far away to break up these 5 points. I have no choice but to play off in the pegging as I can't pair a face card or 15 a eight.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:17 AM
Guess HalscribCLX "optimal" strategy will work for me this morning of promised sun. As pointed out by Rosemarie44 above, holding three points with the run and dropping the pair of Aces to the crib is the best way to do that. Based on my scant empirical data, holding 7-10-J-Q is more than a point greater in combined value than if one had discarded the J-Q. If my comments seem a bit disconnected, excuse me as am looking for my boots. Tomorrow is supposed to be a gully washer. Peg with a bit of caution as opponent needs 16 points to win. Once seeing the 8 cut, use extreme caution if opponent leads a mid card, particularly a 7 or 8. By the way that is a significant element which should modify your approach to pegging. Apply this in each situation where the lead appears to be helped substantially by the starter card. A trey lead with another 3 on the deck might be an early warning of 21 points. How might that be? Observing such can be key to turning a few losses into wins. Hope your heart has a well-directed arrow shaft protruding from it this day. That will make it extra happy!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. That early warning of 21 points most likely means our opponent may be holding the very popular 3-3-4-5 double run. Our worthy opponent started with 10 points, and then the hand doubled plus one point in value with that 3 s/he cut for her/himself . And at this score, if that were the case, we're already toast. So my question is, if you saw that 3 lead across the table, and another on the deck, do we proceed with caution, or immediately try to cut the spread with Pone less than 21 away from the game hole?
Inushtuk1 says: BTW: my heart has said arrow shaft protruding. Hope the same for all here.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1. Sometimes you would throw all caution to the wind and take any points that showed. Here, I would make opponent earn every point and utter a silent prayer that they not score the 16 for the win.
Inushtuk1 says: Nuff said. Thanks. BTW: Further to the weather reports; If I walk out my back patio door, 5 feet beyond the patio roof, the snow is up to my chest; and I'm 6 ' tall.
JQT says: Good luck in your search for the old galoshes, RAS: boot technology has been thoroughly revolutionized in our lifetimes, has it not? From the plain old "Wellington Boot" or once-familiar 'Wellies' and their reliable rubber (which was difficult to obtain after WWII, but no longer any more than a toll-free phone call or a mouse-click away from purveyors such as L.L. Bean), to various synthetics backed with canvass and other more modern materials, and then it was on to Neoprene, and finally, even newer materials such as Thinsulate and Gore-Tex. When I was a young teen and just learning the 'ropes' of trout fishing, I could never afford a good (or even a mediocre) pair of boots or hip waders, so these had to be borrowed or otherwise somehow procured, begged, or scrounged, and of course these would never fit, and they always leaked; and nothing gets more awkward to 'schlep' back home along an old gravel and dirt highway after a long day of fishing than a useless pair of hip waders that have leaked all day in the stream and are then scorching in the hot, afternoon summer sun. After a few outings in which we exceeded ten-mile-plus all-day excursions in pursuit of Wild Trout (and this was before I was old enough to drive a car) with the likes of these awful boots, I discovered that 'wading wet' was a lot more comfortable, even in water that was often at or near 60 deg F, (i.e., Prime Trout Water) as it is only the first few minutes that are really uncomfortable. After wading all morning in a 62-deg F babbling brook, the numbness finally sets in, and then slowly, it passes, and most surprisingly is that even after a few hours of walking back along the road, it only takes a few seconds to re-acclimate and once again adapt upon re-entry later that afternoon or evening. Even the next day I would find it much easier to plunge back into "The Big Chill" in anticipation of once again fooling that Big Trout. Now, I have the latest technology in wading gear, and yet it sits in a dusty corner, unused due to the poor health of its owner. If you lived any closer to me, I would loan you this old man's boots. I think you could use my Steelhead Supreme 5mm Neoprene doubled-sided waders, so buoyant you can virtually float away in them!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: In response to one word above "boots", is this not an amazing response? Thanks for sharing JQT!
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:40 AM
Not what I needed here. I needed a 16 hand to put myself as close as possible. Plan B is to play defense.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013

Tuesday 6:21 AM
A-A from me too.
ken
200 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:47 AM
I pick my pair of aces
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:05 AM
Keep max points for hand + crib combined. Toss the aces. I'm going to try and peg (optimally) in order to get as close as I can with first count next deal. Ras, love the term "Gully Washer". Brought a smile to my face. Stay as dry as you can out there.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:30 PM
Quite often the obvious is correct and here there's only one way of starting with 5pts. That is 3+2pts by throwing the Aces. As JQT often says the Aces in the box offer plenty of pin action and although it would be nice to keep them for pegging not at the expense of points in the hand. So its A-A for me as well.
Guest says: Hi Coeurdelion, thank you for your support on yesterday's site. I'm not sure how to stop these comments. Rosemarie44
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:52 PM
At 98*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs__Crib_Total___W1 %__W2 %
7-10-J-Q___5.22+(-2.41)+5.22=8.03____1.0____38.4
A-10-J-Q___5.52+(-2.52)+3.75=6.75____0.7____31.1
A-A-7-10___3.74+(-2.26)+4.60=6.08____0.6____25.3

Defense______L1 %__L2 %
7-10-J-Q_____8.8____56.9
A-10-J-Q_____7.5____63.9
A-A-7-10____10.8____70.8

7-10-J-Q is best for expected averages, Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select A-A to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:05 PM
There, that wasn't so hard was it? This was from another live game with my wife. I remembered Ras saying in his notes that we should consider retaining a pair of aces in our hand in small hands with a value of 6 or less. But figured that would not be right here. I don't recall what the starter was, only that my wife led a 10. I thought I should play off, so I paired it rather than playing my 7, thinking there was one less loser that way. You guessed it she tripled my 10 and that gave her enough to go out. Did I mention pegging is not my strong suit?