Friday 3:03 AM

I thought the page had not updated at first! Oh well I will throw the other way today, cos why not.

Friday 3:20 AM

The cut gives the hand 2 points and 1 point for the matching Jack in the crib. Hand has two card eleven. Ras comments on this hand as being the best for all strategies.

Friday 3:23 AM

I will go with the life masters take here still. dec

Friday 5:04 AM

Again the 7-8 is a better for my crib than the jacks.

Friday 5:07 AM

With this score even more important to keep the Magic 11, trying to limit the opponent's score, as we are dealing short.

Friday 5:27 AM

I still favour 7-8.

2 response to an X lead, from my 2-J-4 "sweet 16".
X(10)-2(12)-5(17)-J(27)-go-4(31/2).

Friday 5:57 AM

A recurring nightmare. I keep being dealt the same cards. Argrhgrhr!

Friday 9:01 AM

Today I'll go with the Jacks. Like Jazzselke said, at this score, it's even more important to limit Pone's score while giving ourselves as much pegging potential as possible.

Sorry about the duplication of the puzzles folks. I take full responsibility for the mix up. But at least this shows how the score can affect our decision.

Friday 10:04 AM

Still a great puzzle Imushtuk1. No worries. Sticking with my 7-8 toss. Compelling hand and have written down hands of these types in my list of hands database as I have had questions on these in prior play. What would we toss for similar hands at this same position: 2-4-7-8-J-Q, A-3-7-8-10-J, A-2-7-8-10-J, or 3-3-7-8-J-Q. As Ras mentioned yesterday, does the make-up of the two small cards working with the 7-8 influence our discard in these hands?

Friday 10:35 AM

Its going to be between 2+2pt and 4+0pts so its 2-4-J-J (7-8), 2-4-7-8 (J-J) or 7-8-J-J (2-4). Normally a fifteen in the box is going to be better than a pair and as its the touching 7-8 I think this will be even more so:

2-4-J-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

2-4-7-8: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 7¼pts

7-8-J-J: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8½pts

Potential:

2-4-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 9999, JJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/9pts with AAAA, 3333, 5555, JJ = 14 cuts. Plus 11 spades and 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

2-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 6/7/9pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

7-8-J-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 7/8pts with all cuts. Plus 11 spades and 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

Pegging:

2-4-7-8 should peg the best with 2-4-J-J next., I think.

Position:

We're need to reach par-hole of 70pts in two deals. Thats 33pts - way above the average of of 26pts so we need to move our pegs but also we must keep opponent short of second street CPZ (43-47) so I think the best strategy will be to play cautiious offense and minimize net pegging points i.e Optimal as per CP.

Summary:

Both 2-4-J-J and 7-8-J-J start with 1¼pts more than 2-4-7-8 and also have the benefit of ½pt extra for his nob. So evven though 2-4-7-8 will peg better I don't think it will make this up. 2-4-J-J has more cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 6-9pts while 7-8-J-J has 20 cuts for improvement all of which will score 7/8pts. Also I think 2-4-J-J will peg slightly better. So on balance I feel that the 7-8 discard will have the edge. So its 7-8 for me.

Friday 10:38 AM

At 37*-35 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-4-7-8___4.70+1,37+5.25=11.31____16.1____29.4
2-4-J-J___4.41+0.24+6.63=11,28____18.2____33.4
7-8-J-J___6.07+0.39+4.50=10.97____16.9____31.6

Optimal______L6 %____L7 %
2-4-7-8______21.3____43.8
2-4-J-J______19.1____40.0
7-8-J-J______20.1____41.8

Calculations for hand expected averages have been replaced with C. Liam Brown's due to a flaw in my program when calculating with more than one J.

2-4-7-8 is just 0.03pt better than 2-4-J-J but 2-4-J-J is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally to the lead.

Friday 12:29 PM

I pick my pair of jacks

Friday 12:58 PM

Same song/second verse! Said it all yesterday - my choice is the same today with an optimal pegging strategy.