February 17, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
37*-35  ?
49%
43%
7%
0%
Total votes: 199

Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

DoctorWitty
33 votes

Joined: January 2017

   
Friday 3:03 AM
I thought the page had not updated at first! Oh well I will throw the other way today, cos why not.
Reply
Rosemarie44
362 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:20 AM
The cut gives the hand 2 points and 1 point for the matching Jack in the crib. Hand has two card eleven. Ras comments on this hand as being the best for all strategies.
Reply
dec
3484 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:23 AM
I will go with the life masters take here still. dec
Reply
BigFoot Bob
304 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Friday 5:04 AM
Again the 7-8 is a better for my crib than the jacks.
Reply
Jazzselke
707 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 5:07 AM
With this score even more important to keep the Magic 11, trying to limit the opponent's score, as we are dealing short.
Reply
james500
1323 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 5:27 AM
I still favour 7-8.

2 response to an X lead, from my 2-J-4 "sweet 16".
X(10)-2(12)-5(17)-J(27)-go-4(31/2).
Reply
Gougie00
3050 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 5:57 AM
A recurring nightmare. I keep being dealt the same cards. Argrhgrhr!
Reply
Inushtuk1
169 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 9:01 AM
Today I'll go with the Jacks. Like Jazzselke said, at this score, it's even more important to limit Pone's score while giving ourselves as much pegging potential as possible.

Sorry about the duplication of the puzzles folks. I take full responsibility for the mix up. But at least this shows how the score can affect our decision.
Reply
mfetchCT425
210 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 10:04 AM
Still a great puzzle Imushtuk1. No worries. Sticking with my 7-8 toss. Compelling hand and have written down hands of these types in my list of hands database as I have had questions on these in prior play. What would we toss for similar hands at this same position: 2-4-7-8-J-Q, A-3-7-8-10-J, A-2-7-8-10-J, or 3-3-7-8-J-Q. As Ras mentioned yesterday, does the make-up of the two small cards working with the 7-8 influence our discard in these hands?
Reply
Coeurdelion
3035 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 10:35 AM
Its going to be between 2+2pt and 4+0pts so its 2-4-J-J (7-8), 2-4-7-8 (J-J) or 7-8-J-J (2-4). Normally a fifteen in the box is going to be better than a pair and as its the touching 7-8 I think this will be even more so:

2-4-J-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

2-4-7-8: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 7¼pts

7-8-J-J: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8½pts

Potential:

2-4-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 9999, JJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/9pts with AAAA, 3333, 5555, JJ = 14 cuts. Plus 11 spades and 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

2-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 6/7/9pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

7-8-J-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 7/8pts with all cuts. Plus 11 spades and 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

Pegging:

2-4-7-8 should peg the best with 2-4-J-J next., I think.

Position:

We're need to reach par-hole of 70pts in two deals. Thats 33pts - way above the average of of 26pts so we need to move our pegs but also we must keep opponent short of second street CPZ (43-47) so I think the best strategy will be to play cautiious offense and minimize net pegging points i.e Optimal as per CP.

Summary:

Both 2-4-J-J and 7-8-J-J start with 1¼pts more than 2-4-7-8 and also have the benefit of ½pt extra for his nob. So evven though 2-4-7-8 will peg better I don't think it will make this up. 2-4-J-J has more cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 6-9pts while 7-8-J-J has 20 cuts for improvement all of which will score 7/8pts. Also I think 2-4-J-J will peg slightly better. So on balance I feel that the 7-8 discard will have the edge. So its 7-8 for me.
Reply
HalscribCLX
2781 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 10:38 AM
At 37*-35 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-4-7-8___4.70+1,37+5.25=11.31____16.1____29.4
2-4-J-J___4.41+0.24+6.63=11,28____18.2____33.4
7-8-J-J___6.07+0.39+4.50=10.97____16.9____31.6

Optimal______L6 %____L7 %
2-4-7-8______21.3____43.8
2-4-J-J______19.1____40.0
7-8-J-J______20.1____41.8

Calculations for hand expected averages have been replaced with C. Liam Brown's due to a flaw in my program when calculating with more than one J.

2-4-7-8 is just 0.03pt better than 2-4-J-J but 2-4-J-J is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally to the lead.
Reply
ken
198 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 12:29 PM
I pick my pair of jacks
Reply
Ras2829
2545 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 12:58 PM
Same song/second verse! Said it all yesterday - my choice is the same today with an optimal pegging strategy.
Reply