March 16, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
22*-23  ?
42%
32%
11%
5%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 201

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Rosemarie44
493 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:11 AM
I am thinking that it would be best to start with 4 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib with toss 4-4. I considered tossing Q-K as this hand increases with every cut except an Ace. The hand is heavily weighted on 6 points for the hand.
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glmccuskey
2315 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 3:35 AM
I want to keep the 4-4-5 together. With the cut adding no value will peg what I can get.
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dec
3639 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:57 AM
Last night in grass roots I was fortunate to have an above crib average so going with that I will start with six points and inch my par to 34 hopefully with a cut and some pegging to get me here. dec
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Jazzselke
770 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 4:37 AM
Potential with most cuts holding this hand.Also could peg well. Normally hold the most combined points but this may be a valid exception.
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BigFoot Bob
432 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Thursday 4:54 AM
The pone most likely won't toss a jack so I will keep the K-Q together with the fiver. A big part of this game is about nickels and dimes . . . . So the 4-4 goes to my crib.sixth best pair to send there.
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Gougie00
3178 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:13 AM
I want that 445 together. (just to insure an 8 cut *yuck*) Question then becomes tossing 2Q or QK in the crib.

Gotta turn aggressive with the pegging.
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Inushtuk1
271 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 5:28 AM
Every cut but one rank improves this hand. What I lose in my crib, I hope to make up in pegging. Nice three card eleven here. And a small pair with a toucher and a gapper. With only 7 known points playing off to the lead.
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james500
1445 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 6:25 AM
I'd prefer one of the Xs to be a Jack, but I'll try 2-4-4-5 anyway.

Assuming average scoring for both players, 26 points from now I'll be dealing from 48 (+5) in two hand's time. Ten points from here, Pone will be dealing from 33 in the next hand (-10).
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JQT
2041 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 6:29 AM
We are Dealer with a five hole surplus from Hole 17, while Pone stands to reach Hole 33, which is 11 holes shy of the Hole 44 par position, which calls for offense.

Seem to see this every game: Three of one suit; three of another! The choice seems to be between Toss (4 4) and Toss (Q K) today.

The PAIR in Our Crib would no doubt score more on average, but Toss (Q K) could still score 'big' after a Jack Cut.

Meanwhile, our best Hand is definitely Keep (2 4 4 5) with its three-card "Magic Eleven" for Pegging. As much as I am reluctant to stuff Queen/King into my Crib, away they go!
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JRCeagle78
239 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 9:24 AM
My first decision was to keep the 4-4-5 just to keep the possibility of a double run. The 2 should be a better pegging card. The 8 clearly will give my crib nothing to depend on, so I will peg anything and everything.

I will not reach my goal with this hand unless the pone is very helpful.
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The_Bee_Mann
190 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Thursday 9:29 AM
I like discarding the pair of 4s. I just like retaining as many points as I can. So I will toss two points to the crib.
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Coeurdelion
3156 votes

Joined: October 2007

Thursday 12:00 PM
I would like to keep the double-run potential intact so this would mean 4-4-5-K or 2-4-4-5. 2-Q will be slightly better than 2-K. But is it worth breaking it up 4-4-5 and keeping 2-5-Q-K (4-4)?:

4-4-5-K: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 7½pts

2-4-4-5: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.46) = 7½pts

2-5-Q-K: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 9¾pts

Potential:

4-4-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 82.6% up to 10/16pts with 3333, 6666 = 8 cuts.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14pts with 3333, 44, 6666 = 10 cuts.

2-5-Q-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 3333, 555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 17 cuts.

Pegging:

I think that 2-4-4-5 will peg best with a 3-card magic eleven, pair and close cards which are all low.

Position:

It looks like the third deal and we've both had below average scoring. So we still have Dealer's advantage and should be playing Defense.

Summary:

2-5-Q-K starts with 2¼pts more than the other two keeps but it has many fewer cuts for improvement and a much reduced maximum although it does have 17 cuts for 8-10pts. Even so I think the fact that 2-4-4-5 has 42 cuts for improvement and 10 cuts for 12-14pts plus the fact that it will peg better will more than off-set that 2¼pts. Therefore I'll throw the Q-K.
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HalscribCLX
2901 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 1:45 PM
At 22*-23 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
2-4-4-5___7.74+3.70+3.19=14.63____23.0____42.5
2-5-Q-K___6.19+2.57+5.56=14.30____23.3____43.8

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-4-4-5______19.3____29.8
2-5-Q-K______17.9____29.1

2-4-4-5 is better for expected averages by 0.33pt but 2-5-Q-K is slightly better for Win %s and appreciably better for Loss %s. Usually this early in the game, where we have 7/8 deals to go on average, I would put most weight on the expected averages but as 2-5-Q-K is better for both Win %s and Loss %s I'll select the 4-4 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
2672 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 2:11 PM
Submitted this puzzle as it demonstrates quite readily how the combined values of hands may considerably if choosing offense or defense as the strategy. My choice is offense, like the 3-card eleven from heaven (2-4-5) with the X-pointers to the crib. With opponent needing to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47 to deal, will take what I can in the way of pegs although would avoid giving up 12 pegs. Having the combined value edge of 1/3 point is enough for me to favor holding the hand in this manner. If playing defense, would have held 2-5-Q-K and discarded 4-4. This hand was from a live game and a trey was cut. Have played the hand this way for a few years now with good results, although earlier would have tossed 4-4 every time without a thought. If the 2 X-pointers are 10-K, play the 4-4 to own crib every time. Appreciate the insights reflected in today's posting and interesting to note the split in choosing a defense or offense strategy.
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mfetchCT425
229 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 2:27 PM
Liked the big-hand potential of 2-4-4-5, and as others have said, like the pegging potential of this hold with the 3-card magic 11. Every cut helps this hand except an ace. Agree with Ras, that if the X-pointer cards were 10-K, would have tossed 4-4. I would probably toss 4-4 even if we had gap X-pointer cards (10-Q, J-K).
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spin121
89 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 7:29 PM
Need 11 pts for minimal position. That 8 cut isn't helping my hand and based on my QK in crib I don't have much faith for any points there either. Pone is 20 holes away from hitting the next critical position zone. It's offense for me.
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