March 17, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
0*-0  ?
44%
43%
5%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 207

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dec
3526 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:03 AM
Four point sacrafice here . Play the middle cards in the pegging leave low cards till the end. dec
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Samgash
118 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Friday 3:13 AM
5-5 is too cool to hang out with that crew in the hand. Send the prodigal son to the crib to explore.
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Rosemarie44
404 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 4:12 AM
I chose toss 5-6. But this submission from Ras had me going back and forth--this one, no this one.....Even today I am not sure.
Reply
bbaer1
1936 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Friday 5:00 AM
Not being dealt any X cards sealed the deal for me.
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JQT
1977 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 5:01 AM
Top o' the Irish mornin' ... Too bad we cannot 'WISH' that Ace of Clubs to be an Ace of Spades...

Since not, we'll have to settle for the reality of trying to decide if breaking up the (2 5 5 8) hand is justified by our Sacrifice Limits. Meanwhile, busting up the (5 5 6) could be our largest 'cost' today.

Toss (5 5) is The King of Dealer Discards, and it not only produces a nearly nine-point Crib Average, but also allows a Sacrificial Limit of up to FOUR POINTS!

Meanwhile, if we Keep (A 2 6 8), we're still holding onto Two Points in a hand that should peg as well or better, as opposed to Keep (2 5 5 8), a 6-point Hand which may not fare quite as well.

Even if we call the pegging as 'even,' Toss (5 5) is apparently only 'costing' us Four Points while it promises to generate over TWICE that much in our Crib, and it does fall in nicely right within those aforementioned Sacrificial Limits. Therefore, Toss (5 5), Drink Irish Whisky (and Green Beer), and Let It Go!
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PalT47
25 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Friday 5:14 AM
One of perhaps only 3 votes so far splitting the 5s, I was reluctant to send both 5s to the crib in case an X didn't find it's way there. Split allows all cuts to add value to hand. I feel the same way Rosemarie44 does- "this one- no this one". Good puzzle.
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Gougie00
3090 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 5:16 AM
Without being dealt a face card, I'll toss 55 in my crib. Go ahead an toss me a 10-K.
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mfetchCT425
218 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 5:56 AM
5-5 is strongest discard to own crib and A-2-6-8 has a 3-card magic 11 for what should be a good pegging hand as dealer. All cuts help this hand except the X-pointers, but alas, we would be delighted to see one as it would guarantee at least 6 points in crib.
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glmccuskey
2219 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 6:35 AM
I think RAS wants the 5's in the crib but that's cutting my hand down to just two points. Not for me. A-6 is a decent discard.
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james500
1360 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 7:00 AM
- Strong discard that's within sacrifice limit.
- Every cut from Ace to 9 improves the hand, Xs help the crib.
- Three card 11 (8-2-A) and, probably not as useful today with fewer fives in circulation, a three card 16 (8-6-2) also.
Reply
PBatterson
1017 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 7:07 AM
In Massachusetts you are supposed to raise your hand when throwing two fives in your crib.
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cribbagepogo
2228 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 7:14 AM
Many cards help the hand. Let the 5.s do as they will, we have at least 2 points.
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duke62
716 votes

Joined: September 2014

   
Friday 9:11 AM
Tough choice. Considered toss A-6, 5-5, and 5-6. Settled on the way I've more traditionally played it just to ensure my lesson is learned when the stats are revealed!
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The_Bee_Mann
108 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Friday 9:43 AM
I couldn't resist. I sent the pair of 5s to the crib.
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Inushtuk1
203 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 11:28 AM
I couldn't resist either. Hey PBatterson, can you see my hand? I mean the one attached to my wrist; not my cards. I'm hoping this is another one of the 5% exceptions to The Big Hand Rule; as we cannot honestly answer "Yes", to both those by now very familiar questions. We have the A-2-8 three card eleven for defensive pegging. Why not go for it in the crib? The A-2-5-8(5-6) has that same great three card eleven, but its expected average is almost 1.75 points lower, so it's bye-bye 5's for me.

Now somebody direct me to the Baker City Elk's Club.
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Andy (muesli64)
1223 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Friday 12:12 PM
Throw the 5-5/. Must be the reason RAS put this puzzle in!
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Ras2829
2582 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 2:43 PM
Based on my accumulated empirical data, there are 9 of 91 discard combinations which are worth a sacrifice of points in hand when dealing. The Big Hand Rule does not apply here although the sacrifice limits defined therein can be applied to this hand. The 5-5 to own crib averages 8.876 (500) 1/91, scores two points 2.4%, score 8 or more 60.2%, and tallies 12 or more 20.8%. Nothing comes close to those figures. Note that the 5-5 is 40 times as likely to produce 8 or more than to score a mere two points in crib. In 500 instances of discarding 5-5 to own crib, only 12 resulted in two points (2.4%). Yet a common lament I hear is "when I toss 5-5 to my crib, it only scores two points." Don't believe that. Your mind is playing tricks on you. If dealing, look for hands where 5-5 in hand offers only six points. Can you retain two points and put the 5-5 to own crib? It is such a strong discard as folks will often toss two X-point cards (10-K, 10-Q, Q-K, and other X-point combos less frequently). Those X-point cards often are not of value in non-dealer hand and allow the retention of the better pegging cards as well. A lot of folks love the 7-8 discard when dealing; yet seldom will opponent toss two middle cards. They work pretty well if the starter card is a middle card. The 5-5 discard often scores 10-12 with no help from the starter card. Try it: you'll like it! If you would like to know more about sacrifice limits when dealing, Email
raswino29@outlook.com.
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Coeurdelion
3076 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 2:58 PM
I think its the choice between the 6pts with 2-5-5-8 (A-6) and A-2-6-8 (5-5):

2-5-5-8: 6pts + 3ūpts (Schell: 3.85) = 9ūpts

A-2-6-8: 2pts + 8ūpts (Schell: 8.79) = 10ūpts

Potential:

2-5-5-8: Improves with 222, 3333, 55, 7777, 888 + 16xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 55, 888 + 16xXs = 24 cuts.

A-2-6-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

Whether playing Defense or Offense I think A-2-6-8 will peg better with more low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

At game start as Dealer we'll be pegging Defensively.

Summary:

A-2-6-8 has the better starting value by 1pt and although the number of cuts for improvement is lower and the maximum value much lower it does have 13 cuts for 6-9pts which is a tremendous increase from 2pts. Ras's sacrifice rules I believe allow for a 4pt sacrifice in order to throw 5-5 so this fits within that. For all these reasons I'll throw the 5-5.
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HalscribCLX
2818 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:27 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-2-6-8___4.35+(-1.89)+8.82=11.28____39.9____52.2
2-5-5-8___8.87+(-2.17)+3.51=10.21____38.0____51.6

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-2-6-8_______26.4____22.7
2-5-5-8_______25.2____22.8

A-2-6-8 is better for expected averages by 1.07pt and is slightly better for Win %s although sightly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select the 5-5 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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