March 18, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
33*-31  ?
48%
36%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 190
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:14 AM
Ha Ha nice cut. This morning I kept the high cards together and the touching 6-7 to the crib.
The_Bee_Mann says: Good choice. That's what I did.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:18 AM
I'll hold 4-10-Q-K and toss 6-7 today.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:20 AM
Touchies away? In the past when I have gotten cute and did something like Q-10 I have got burnt by the pegging. dec
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 4:06 AM
I've always thrown it this way. Please show me a better way. Defense is the way to go in the pegging.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 6:27 AM
Many moons ago, JQT wrote a very thorough piece on here about the strength of 6-7 as a discard. I've looked out for it ever since, and it has tended to serve me reasonably well.

For those choosing X-X, I'd be very interested to hear whether you favour 10-Q or Q-K, and why.
Both become 3 points with a Jack, and 4 points with a 5. Q-K is "cut off" without this Jack, whereas the 10 from Q-10 could possibly contribute to 8-9-10. Pone has a liking for K-? discards however, so maybe Q-K is slightly more likely to result in a pair?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi james500: Gathering information from my notes, I would prefer not to chose either, 10-Q or G-K for my crib as there is little chance opponent will toss a Jack to me. Inadditions, the best toss to own crib would be in order, J-Q and 10-J. Today, of course, a jack is the starter card.
Rosemarie44 says: change G-K for Q-K, thank you.
Guest says: If opponent is smart, he will not toss the jack, period
spunlex says: According to Schell's Q-K is worth 0.15 more in your crib. I know I'm always happy to toss a K into the crib when I'm pone.
james500 says: Thanks to all for commenting, and to Spunlex for addressing my question.
Rosemarie44 says: I apologize for not addressing your question, I naturally assumed you knew the differences in the value between 10-Q and Q-K.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:43 AM
I'll toss 67 in the crib and *hope* the pone helps.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 8:22 AM
After the cut wish I had tossed QK. Defense.
duke62
1483 votes

Joined: September 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 8:33 AM
Have always tossed the touching cards from this hand. Can't justify any other choice.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 9:29 AM
Anytime I can discard touching cards, especially 6,7,8,or 9 into my crib I will try. Great opportunity since the 6 and 7 really can't add to my hand.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 10:00 AM
When all else fails will keep the best pegging cards.
Rosemarie44 says: Good morning and welcome.
Rosemarie44 says: Good morning and welcome.
Rosemarie44 says: Good morning and welcome.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 10:07 AM
What do you think are the odds of dealing this precise hand of ZERO POINTS to yourself? Think about this, and we'll address it later.

I seem to get 'junk' like this all the time! And I'll bet that you do, too!

I suppose a case can be made for either Toss (6 7) or maybe Toss (T Q) today. I don't think I will even consider Toss (Q K), because there is NOTHING Toss (Q K) can do for Our Crib that Toss (T Q) will not do BETTER. And so if we need a LESSON today, let that be it.

This leaves us with the 'touching' Tag Team of Toss (6 7), so away they go. We have an 8 DIV 46 equals 0.174 or 17% chance of Cutting (5555, 8888).

That Jack Cut now means that we'll make it to AT LEAST Hole 40. That's a nice 'jump' after having NOTHING!

Oh, did you want the answer to the original question? You might not like it. What are the odds of dealing ourselves those precise Six Cards above?

Actually, its the same odds of dealing ourselves (4 4 5 5 5 6), or (5 5 5 J J J), or (7 7 7 8 8 8), or a Straight FLUSH in HEARTS, etc. The odds of getting Six Exact Cards are IDENTICAL, regardless of what's 'painted' upon those cards!

Of course, the odds of being dealt MORE POINTS is MUCH LESS than the odds of being dealt FEWER POINTS. That is what is at work when we seem to get JUNK all too often, because that's true.

But those Six Cards above, or any other precise 'Bunch of Six' are as RARE as ANY OTHER SIX!
JQT says: Another way to think about this, one that is perhaps a bit less abstract: The odds of dealing ourselves THIS EXACT HAND of Six Cards that equal Zero Points is the same odds of dealing ourselves a precise bunch such as: (5 5 5 5 7s 8s), which starts off at Twenty Points in Hand and sports a Crib Value that will average greater than Six Points. But if we ignore SUITS, notice that while there are sixteen ways to get that huge hand (four different 7 Cards with four different 8 Cards equals four times four which equals sixteen), that there are literally THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS of ways to get ZERO POINTS. Therefore, while ANY PARTICULAR GROUP OF SIX CARDS is as rare as any other group of six cards (some that may even produce Twenty or More Points), the number of hands or groups of cards that produce fewer points FAR EXCEEDS the number of hands that score big.
james500 says: Hi, hope all's well. Thanks for addressing the T-Q/K-Q comparison. I happen to agree with your assessment that T-Q is a better choice than Q-K from these. I find it interesting that 467T has been selected by 38%, and 467K by only 4%.
King Richard
2825 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 10:14 AM
Shovel mid-cards into your own Crib. Sir Elmer, is there an error in the King's way?
spunlex
206 votes

Joined: January 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 11:49 AM
Improves with almost every cut, even if not by much and should peg better. 2 card 11 and 16. I'm clearly in the minority today.