March 19, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk
105-118*  ?
55%
32%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 168

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dec
3556 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:07 AM
Ace or two what is better to hold back opponent from pegging? Its a tossup, I took the potential average a .09 difference. Play the eight lead it is now only about point spread. dec
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JQT
1994 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:13 AM
I didn't see any postings after 11:49 a.m. "Hand of the Day" time (1:49 p.m. EDT) yesterday. Any idea what happened?

Today I think we have to consider either Keep (A 6 7 8) or Keep (2 6 7 8), as dec mentioned. But I think it's because of how this affects OUR HAND and not so much the pegging.

Keep (A 6 7 8) could easily become worth 14 Points or 16 Points after a (666, 777, 888) Cut, and we get the beautiful "Raggedy Ann" (AA678) for 13 Points after an Ace (AAA) Cut. That's about a Dozen Cuts for 13-to-16 Points.

Keep (2 6 7 8) could easily become worth 14 Points after a (666, 777, 888) Cut, and we get the "Raggedy Andy" (22678) for 11 Points after a Deuce (222) Cut. That's about a Dozen Cuts for 11-to-14 Points.

I don't see much difference in the pegging between these two choices, and we CANNOT allow the Dealer to score Hand and Crib today, so let's Keep (A 6 7 8) and Toss (2 3). Lead the Ace of course.
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Rosemarie44
431 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 4:06 AM
I agree with the previous two contributors. Slight advantage in keeping A-6-7-8 with regards to exp. average hand. Odds of holding dealer to two points while we need 16 points is 800-1 including pegging and the crib. (DeLynn Colvert)
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Gougie00
3117 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 4:15 AM
Mission Impossible.
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glmccuskey
2252 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 4:50 AM
Lead the eight
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Coeurdelion
3099 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 5:28 AM
I think its just a matter of comparing A-6-7-8 and 2-6-7-8 and comparing the chances of getting out:

A-6-7-8: Scores 1pts with AAA, 14pts with 666 and 16pts with 777, 888.

2-6-7-8: Scores 11pts with 222, 14pts with 666, 888 and 16pts with 777.

With 2-6-7-8 the 5 cut produces 10pts rather than 8pts with A-6-7-8 but OI don't think it gets us close enough to make much difference.

With either hand we have to try to keep dealer to 2pts or just the 1pt and with both I'll lead the low card and play as safely as possible which could be difficult with these cards!
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james500
1386 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 5:33 AM
After seeing the cut, I'll shake my opponent's hand and move on.
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JQT
1994 votes

Joined: October 2008

Sunday 7:48 AM
Hand of the Day Puzzle for March 19, 2017

Score (105-118*) Hand Dealt (As 2d 3h 6c 7d 8h)

The Discard Choice is a close neck-and-neck race in the VOTES today, but for those who post their ideas, it's a lopsided, 100% theme here. Since the discard isn't varying too much among those with opinions, let's look at the details of the hand more closely, and also look at the pegging.

How often can we hope to WIN such an endgame as Pone? Well, we know that if we Cut a Jack, it's tantamount to INSTANT DEATH (unless you think there's a way for Pone to peg Sixteen Unanswered Points!) And yet we know that we won't have to peg anything at all if we can cut a 7 Card or an 8 Card. Let's examine the lay of the land:

Keep (A 6 7 8) and Toss (2 3)

06x16=096 - 777, 888 (6 Cuts = 16 Points, Must Peg 0)
03x14=042 - 666 (3 Cuts = 14 Points, Must Peg 2)
03x13=039 - AAA (3 Cuts = 13 Points, Must Peg 3)
04x10=040 - 9999 (4 Cuts = 10 Points, Must Peg 6)
03x09=027 - 222 (3 Cuts = 9 Points, Must Peg 7)
04x08=032 - 5555 (4 Cuts = 8 Points, Must Peg 8)
23x07=161 - 333, 4444, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (23 Cuts = 7 Points, Must Peg 9)
---------
46 437

Expected Average is: 437 DIV 46 is 9.500 Points

Of course, in an endgame scenario such as this, even if this was NOT the hand with the highest Expected Average, this wouldn't be of much concern, because we're specifically looking at "discrete" scores here. For instance, if we can Cut a 7 card or an 8 Card (777, 888), we won't need to peg ANY. We'll still need to hold the Dealer to just Two Points Pegged or fewer, and that alone is not an easy task.

Looking closely at the Map of the Hand, it seems as though it might not be unreasonable for us to attempt to Peg 3 Holes, and this means a Dozen Cuts (AAA, 666, 777, 888) could deliver us a possible VICTORY. The next discrete "break" occurs after a 9 Card Cut (9999) and this would entail us pegging 6 Points while only giving up Two or fewer Points, and that seems "a bridge too far."

So the odds of 12 DIV 46 equals 0.261 or about 26%. And then the real work begins! We know that the Dealer ALWAYS pegs at least One Point, unless Pone can peg out FIRST. So the odds of the Dealer getting to at least Hole 119 look to be 100%. And we also know that the Dealer Pegging Average is around 3.5 Holes. By definition, to be an "average" this means that 50% of the time it will be lower, and 50% of the time it will be higher.

To measure Dealer Pegging and break it down more precisely, I wish the Saved Games of Halscrib were more oriented toward being in a database: then I could search among tens of thousands of my own games, or among millions of high-rated player games, for Dealer at Score 118 and Pone at say Score 110 or less (that should produce good data) and just see how often the Dealer Pegged Out. Since doing this is extremely tedious, we have to resort to a few of the known graphs that have been plotted, so let's scroll almost to the bottom of the following page and look at Dealer Pegging Data:

http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/cribbage-hand-statistics.html

It's a shame that several Cribbage Sites (such as Wikipedia) avoid gathering important data such as that we are seeking today, and instead they often collect all sorts of silly ways about how for example Pone can peg Twenty-Four Holes against the Dealer after pegging goes: 5 (5) 5 (10=2) 5 (15-8) 4 (19) 4 (23-2) 4 (27=6) 4 (31-14) and Dealer presumably now unloads the Last Card. This is akin to a "Helpmate" in Chess, where one or both sides cooperate, and so it's totally unrealistic and thus useless information. (Who writes that Wiki Stuff, anyway?! ; - )

By examining the CribbagePro Blog data closely, I would place the odds of holding Dealer to just 'Two or Fewer Holes Pegged' at somewhere between 35% to 40% of the time. But this of course involves all possible Cuts, including a Jack! And since we had no Jacks in our Hand today, the odds that we may turn over a Jack as the Cut are 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly 9%. But once we pass THAT hurdle (and let's say we do), I think the odds of a Dealer now pegging only Two Points or less should definitely 'jump' closer to maybe 45% or 50%, but I also doubt that it ever exceeds 50%. And so with all of that in mind, let's look at just one successful example where Pone WINS today:

(105-118*)

Pone (As 6c 7d 8h) Toss (2d 3h)

Dealer (5s 8d 9s Td) Toss (5c Th) Cut = 8s

Pegging: A (1) 8 (9) 8 (17-2) T (27=1) . 7 (7) 5 (12) 6 (18-3) 9 (27=1)

Pone Pegs 5 ; Dealer Pegs 2 ; Interim Score (110-120)

Pone Hand = 16 ; Dealer Hand = 10 ; Crib = 6

Final Score (121-120)
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Ras2829
2609 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:12 AM
Don't worry about the crib; toss the 2-3. In retaining the A-6-7-8, a starter card of 7 or 8 gives enough with first count to win.. If holding 2-6-7-8, only the cut of a 7 [provides the 16 points. Had the cut been a 7 or 8, would have
led from the middle of the sequence with the 7. Since the cut is of no value, will lead the Ace and pair dealer response or 15-2 if possible. A few games can be won in this situation by limiting dealer to the two pegs and getting that essential starter card for 14-16 points. Certainly all of that requires a generous amount of luck.
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HalscribCLX
2847 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 10:43 AM
At 105-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Hold Enough %s and Dealer Peg Out %s are:

Offense_________Dlr Peg Out %_______Hold Out %
A-6-7-8____________33.0______________19.4
2-6-7-8____________30.0______________15.2

Although the chances of Dealer Pegging Out are slightly higher for A-6-7-8 this is more than compensated for by the significantly higher chance of holding enough to get out. So I'll select the 2-3 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Optimally:

Lead_____Net Peg Pts.___Loss %____Win %____Spread
7__________(-1.16)_______76.9______0.0_____(-7.47)
8__________(-1.62)_______73.2______0.0_____(-7.96)
6__________(-1.95)_______83.1______0.0_____(-8.15)
A__________(-1.98)_______70.6______0.0_____(-8.34)
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