March 20, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
24*-28  ?
34%
19%
12%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 221

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dec
3703 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:08 AM
I believe this would be playing defense with this keep. However throwing J-Q was something I was looking at. Live and learn. dec
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BigFoot Bob
480 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Monday 3:22 AM
I don't know why I just did. I liked keeping the run and want to keep on ten pointer. Let's see what the J can do. . . .
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Rosemarie44
551 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:23 AM
I chose to toss J-Q and keep the smaller cards as they increase in value with every cut. Hand starts at 3 points and increases to more than 4 points in value with an expected average hand of 7.07 points.
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glmccuskey
2370 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 3:54 AM
I used to throw 3-5 or A-4 from this but if my mind serves me, RAS and Hal has taught me that J-Q is best. I'll peg aggressively especially if my opponent leads a face card knowing that six cut probably does not help him.
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DoctorWitty
164 votes

Joined: January 2017

   
Monday 4:06 AM
Any cut will do
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Inushtuk1
314 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 4:29 AM
I like where I am on the board. Playing defense I want the Magic Eleven in my hand, and that sweet (3-5) one-star toss in my crib this morning. The A-3-4-5 is better for its average hand by 0.37 points. However (3-5) to the crib is better by over a point, and playing defense I want the 'Eleven' in my hand. If playing offense I think the (J-Q) would be in my crib in a flash. Responding with the ace on any X lead. Pone has no likely A-4 combo. Might have an ace though. If so I'll make the count 22 with my J to be rid of it

Sorry about not responding to yesterday's puzzle about my reasons for submitting it, and the circumstances surrounding it. I've been busy getting my butt kicked in Baker City, Oregon. I'm along way from home without my notes, so I can't remember why I submitted that particular puzzle. It may have been taken directly from Barlow's Miracles on 4th Street. Again I don't have the book with me, so i can't be sure. Going back to bed now. It's only 3:27 out here in this beautiful part of the country.

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JQT
2045 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 4:51 AM
This puzzle looks very familiar, and Toss (3 5) somehow 'jumps' out at me in an instant.

Either I've seen this hand before, recently perhaps, or my 'Cribbage Sensors' are on High-Alert' to bust up a 3-4-5 RUN and stash a 5 Card into my Crib.

We are behind but Currently Dealing in a close game, and I think it may be a mistake to Toss (J Q) here, not just because it provides us with a much weaker Crib, which it does when compared to Toss (3 5), but with regards to how this affects our Hand as well.

Of course the 6 Card Cut tries to add Insult to Injury and it attempts to mock our decision to 'Split Up' the 3-4-5 RUN today, but so be it.
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james500
1500 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 5:16 AM
I used to choose A-X, but from this site I've learned that 3-5 is better.

Needing an above average 15 points to reach their target, if Pone leads a card that might work with the cut, I'll play off.
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Gougie00
3235 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:56 AM
Is today another teaching moment? I've tossed 3-5 from hands like this for a while. Unless there is a flush involved, the 3-5 usually catches something in the crib.

Yesterday in Woonsocket in the playoffs got 24 hands twice in game. It turned my 20 lead into a deficit, then an even game into a 20 point loss. Ugh! What are the odds of getting a pair of 24s in the same game?
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Jazzselke
798 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 6:15 AM
Ras definitely advocates 35 from this selection. Good chance for 8 or 10 in the hand, and a sure 2 in the crib.
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spin121
126 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 7:04 AM
Good defensive pegging hand
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Andy (muesli64)
1264 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 7:26 AM
3-5 according to the experts.
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smugly
187 votes

Joined: August 2016

   
Monday 8:21 AM
Surprised to see so many options. My mind only saw toss A-4 or 3-5, and 3-5 has tighter grouping to be aided by 3 other (random-ish) cards.
Reply
CA6056
159 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 10:06 AM
Tossing the jack, I have at least one point in the crib.
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The_Bee_Mann
244 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Monday 10:13 AM
I kept the 3,4,5 and J. There is so much potential there. The 9 is the only card that won't help the hand. Good chance to gain a few points through pegging too. I noticed the hand with 0% is a different hand.
Reply
superdow
54 votes

Joined: February 2016

   
Monday 1:36 PM
I threw the queen rather than the jack - I'm thinking its more likely opponent would throw a queen into the crib than a jack.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3204 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:10 PM
I think A-4-J-Q (3-5) will be better than 3-5-J-Q (A-4) so I feel it will be between 3-4-5-Q (A-J), A-3-4-5 (J-Q) and A-4-J-Q (3-5):

3-4-5-Q: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = 9¾pts

A-3-4-5: 3pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 7¾pts

A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.

A-3-4-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts =23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Pegging:

I think A-3-4-5 will peg the best with 3-4-5-Q next best.

Position:

It looks like we were First Dealer but we have slipped 2pts below the average 26pts and Pone has gained 2pts. We still just have a slight advantage in postion but I think we need to peg Offense to redress this.

Summary:

A-3-4-5 has the most cuts for improvement but only 9 cuts for 8-10pts. Athough it also should peg well the starting value is much lower so can be ruled out. A-4-J-Q has the best starting value by ¼pt and including the ¼pt for the nob is ½pt. But 3-4-5-Q has many more cuts for improvement and 9 cuts for 10-12pts. It also ought to peg slightly better. So I'll throw the A-J.
Reply
HalscribCLX
2949 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:17 PM
At 24*-28 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-4-J-Q___6.70+(-1.93)+5.79=10.56____30.7____45.4
3-5-J-Q___6.89+(-2.26)+5.24= 9.87____29.3____42.9
A-3-4-5___7.07+(-2.13)+4.62= 9.56____29.7____41.3
A-3-4-Q___4.72+(-2.02)+6.75= 9.45____27.9____41.0
A-3-4-J___4.98+(-2.04)+6.50= 9.44____28.5____41.5
A-5-J-Q___6.61+(-2.07)+4.61= 9.15____28.2____42.1
3-4-5-Q___7.98+(-2.20)+3.31= 9.09____27.9____41.6
3-4-5-J___8.24+(-2.20)+3.01= 9.05____28.5____42.1
4-5-J-Q___7.07+(-2.30)+4.24= 9.01____27.9____41.0

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-J-Q_______28.5____31.6
3-5-J-Q_______30.9____34.8
A-3-4-5_______33.7____37.0
A-3-4-Q_______31.6____36.8
A-3-4-J_______31.0____35.6
A-5-J-Q_______29.5____34.9
3-4-5-Q_______27.9____41.6
3-4-5-J_______30.8____35.9
4-5-J-Q_______31.0____36.5

A-4-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.69pt and it is also appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3204 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 4:59 PM
I think A-4-J-Q (3-5) will be better than 3-5-J-Q (A-4) so I feel it will be between 3-4-5-Q (A-J), A-3-4-5 (J-Q) and A-4-J-Q (3-5):

3-4-5-Q: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 8¾pts

A-3-4-5: 3pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 7¾pts

A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.

A-3-4-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts.

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts =23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Pegging:

I think A-3-4-5 will peg the best with 3-4-5-Q next best.

Position:

It looks like we were First Dealer but we have slipped 2pts below the average 26pts and Pone has gained 2pts. We still just have a slight advantage in postion but I think we need to peg Offense to redress this.

Summary:

A-3-4-5 has the most cuts for improvement but only 9 cuts for 8-10pts. Athough it also should peg well the starting value is much lower so can be ruled out. A-4-J-Q has the best starting value by 1¼pt and including the ¼pt for the nob is 1½pt. 3-4-5-Q has many more cuts for improvement and 9 cuts for 10-12pts and It also ought to peg slightly better. Will it catch up the 1½pts? I think it might so I'll throw the A-J.
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