March 20, 2017
34% | |||||
19% | |||||
12% | |||||
8% | |||||
7% | |||||
5% | |||||
4% | |||||
3% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
Total votes: 221 |
dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:08 AM
I believe this would be playing defense with this keep. However throwing J-Q was something I was looking at. Live and learn. dec Guest says: You chose well my friend |
BigFoot Bob 624 votes Joined: April 2016 |
    Monday 3:22 AM
I don't know why I just did. I liked keeping the run and want to keep on ten pointer. Let's see what the J can do. . . . |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 3:23 AM
I chose to toss J-Q and keep the smaller cards as they increase in value with every cut. Hand starts at 3 points and increases to more than 4 points in value with an expected average hand of 7.07 points. cwed says: Rosemarie: any run of three from Ace through 20 is a minimum of five points. cwed says: Oops, make that "from Ace through 10"! Rosemarie44 says: Hi cwed: I don't understand. M figures are before the cut. Rosemarie44 says: I get it. Minimum of hand is 5 points to a maximum of 10 points. Guest says: Glad you got it...... Guest says: Bout time |
glmccuskey 4101 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Monday 3:54 AM
I used to throw 3-5 or A-4 from this but if my mind serves me, RAS and Hal has taught me that J-Q is best. I'll peg aggressively especially if my opponent leads a face card knowing that six cut probably does not help him. |
DoctorWitty 686 votes Joined: January 2017 |
    Monday 4:06 AM
Any cut will do |
Inushtuk1 1487 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Monday 4:29 AM
I like where I am on the board. Playing defense I want the Magic Eleven in my hand, and that sweet (3-5) one-star toss in my crib this morning. The A-3-4-5 is better for its average hand by 0.37 points. However (3-5) to the crib is better by over a point, and playing defense I want the 'Eleven' in my hand. If playing offense I think the (J-Q) would be in my crib in a flash. Responding with the ace on any X lead. Pone has no likely A-4 combo. Might have an ace though. If so I'll make the count 22 with my J to be rid of it
Sorry about not responding to yesterday's puzzle about my reasons for submitting it, and the circumstances surrounding it. I've been busy getting my butt kicked in Baker City, Oregon. I'm along way from home without my notes, so I can't remember why I submitted that particular puzzle. It may have been taken directly from Barlow's Miracles on 4th Street. Again I don't have the book with me, so i can't be sure. Going back to bed now. It's only 3:27 out here in this beautiful part of the country. |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Monday 4:51 AM
This puzzle looks very familiar, and Toss (3 5) somehow 'jumps' out at me in an instant.
Either I've seen this hand before, recently perhaps, or my 'Cribbage Sensors' are on High-Alert' to bust up a 3-4-5 RUN and stash a 5 Card into my Crib. We are behind but Currently Dealing in a close game, and I think it may be a mistake to Toss (J Q) here, not just because it provides us with a much weaker Crib, which it does when compared to Toss (3 5), but with regards to how this affects our Hand as well. Of course the 6 Card Cut tries to add Insult to Injury and it attempts to mock our decision to 'Split Up' the 3-4-5 RUN today, but so be it. Inushtuk1 says: But my friend JQT; I'm sure we dealt Pone 4-5-6-J-Q-K, and he felt compelled to toss us the 4-6. I would have done the same. And so we have a "Sweet Sixteen" crib. ; - ). Inushtuk1 says: A lot of good things can happen with those two key connectors in our crib. |
james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 5:16 AM
I used to choose A-X, but from this site I've learned that 3-5 is better.
Needing an above average 15 points to reach their target, if Pone leads a card that might work with the cut, I'll play off. |
Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 5:56 AM
Is today another teaching moment? I've tossed 3-5 from hands like this for a while. Unless there is a flush involved, the 3-5 usually catches something in the crib.
Yesterday in Woonsocket in the playoffs got 24 hands twice in game. It turned my 20 lead into a deficit, then an even game into a 20 point loss. Ugh! What are the odds of getting a pair of 24s in the same game? Guest says: Congrats on placing 3/4 in Corned Beef and Cabbage Tourney! S :) Gougie00 says: Thank you. Funny how tournaments are. I wiped out my first 3 opponents in the playoffs then the cards stopped coming. Funny also how you relive the tournament when you are trying to sleep that night. Only the decision that ended up as being stupid .. Guest says: I did the same thing in Reno getting knocked out of the consy by one of your east coasters. 20 out as pone, he is 22 out as dealer. I hold 6-6-6-3-k-5. Tossed k-3, cut the 9! 18 hand, but the cut gave him a 24 hand anyway. I don't usually lament hands, but I will never forget that one. He was a very nice player though S :) Inushtuk1 says: Hi guest. I think you mean you tossed (5-K) his way. But tough break either way. Guest says: No, i tossed 3-k and meant that I would have had an 18 hand if i'd done k-5. S :) Inushtuk1 says: Gotcha |
Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Monday 6:15 AM
Ras definitely advocates 35 from this selection. Good chance for 8 or 10 in the hand, and a sure 2 in the crib. Guest says: Hmmmm...I've changed from tossing J/A into my crib, to J/Q. Guess I change again! S :) |
spin121 299 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 7:04 AM
Good defensive pegging hand |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Monday 7:26 AM
3-5 according to the experts. |
smugly 387 votes Joined: August 2016 |
    Monday 8:21 AM
Surprised to see so many options. My mind only saw toss A-4 or 3-5, and 3-5 has tighter grouping to be aided by 3 other (random-ish) cards. |
CA6056 159 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Monday 10:06 AM
Tossing the jack, I have at least one point in the crib. |
The_Bee_Mann 306 votes Joined: November 2016 |
    Monday 10:13 AM
I kept the 3,4,5 and J. There is so much potential there. The 9 is the only card that won't help the hand. Good chance to gain a few points through pegging too. I noticed the hand with 0% is a different hand. Inushtuk1 says: Hi The_Bee_Mann. You certainly have a lot more potential in your hand than I do. But I worry about messing up the crib with A-Q. Especially with us having been dealt a 4. Ras says to always think of the crib as an extension of your hand. Then again, you do have 3 more points in your hand than I do. Best wishes. BigFoot Bob says: Hey buddy I threw the Jack because the pone would never toss a jack. See you tomorrow for best of three and lunch. |
superdow 123 votes Joined: February 2016 |
    Monday 1:36 PM
I threw the queen rather than the jack - I'm thinking its more likely opponent would throw a queen into the crib than a jack. superdow says: on the other hand, you can coax a run from both sides of a thrown jack |
Coeurdelion 5595 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 3:10 PM
I think A-4-J-Q (3-5) will be better than 3-5-J-Q (A-4) so I feel it will be between 3-4-5-Q (A-J), A-3-4-5 (J-Q) and A-4-J-Q (3-5):
3-4-5-Q: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = 9¾pts A-3-4-5: 3pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 7¾pts A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts Potential: 3-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts. A-3-4-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts. A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts =23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt. Pegging: I think A-3-4-5 will peg the best with 3-4-5-Q next best. Position: It looks like we were First Dealer but we have slipped 2pts below the average 26pts and Pone has gained 2pts. We still just have a slight advantage in postion but I think we need to peg Offense to redress this. Summary: A-3-4-5 has the most cuts for improvement but only 9 cuts for 8-10pts. Athough it also should peg well the starting value is much lower so can be ruled out. A-4-J-Q has the best starting value by ¼pt and including the ¼pt for the nob is ½pt. But 3-4-5-Q has many more cuts for improvement and 9 cuts for 10-12pts. It also ought to peg slightly better. So I'll throw the A-J. Coeurdelion says: Oops! I've used figures for A-J to Opponent's crib rather than our crib. I'll recalculate 8-( |
HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 4:17 PM
At 24*-28 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Pone's Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 % A-4-J-Q___6.70+(-1.93)+5.79=10.56____30.7____45.4 3-5-J-Q___6.89+(-2.26)+5.24= 9.87____29.3____42.9 A-3-4-5___7.07+(-2.13)+4.62= 9.56____29.7____41.3 A-3-4-Q___4.72+(-2.02)+6.75= 9.45____27.9____41.0 A-3-4-J___4.98+(-2.04)+6.50= 9.44____28.5____41.5 A-5-J-Q___6.61+(-2.07)+4.61= 9.15____28.2____42.1 3-4-5-Q___7.98+(-2.20)+3.31= 9.09____27.9____41.6 3-4-5-J___8.24+(-2.20)+3.01= 9.05____28.5____42.1 4-5-J-Q___7.07+(-2.30)+4.24= 9.01____27.9____41.0 Defense_______L7 %____L8 % A-4-J-Q_______28.5____31.6 3-5-J-Q_______30.9____34.8 A-3-4-5_______33.7____37.0 A-3-4-Q_______31.6____36.8 A-3-4-J_______31.0____35.6 A-5-J-Q_______29.5____34.9 3-4-5-Q_______27.9____41.6 3-4-5-J_______30.8____35.9 4-5-J-Q_______31.0____36.5 A-4-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.69pt and it is also appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 3-5 to discard. After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |
Coeurdelion 5595 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 4:59 PM
I think A-4-J-Q (3-5) will be better than 3-5-J-Q (A-4) so I feel it will be between 3-4-5-Q (A-J), A-3-4-5 (J-Q) and A-4-J-Q (3-5):
3-4-5-Q: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 8¾pts A-3-4-5: 3pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 7¾pts A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts Potential: 3-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts. A-3-4-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10pts with 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts. A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts =23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt. Pegging: I think A-3-4-5 will peg the best with 3-4-5-Q next best. Position: It looks like we were First Dealer but we have slipped 2pts below the average 26pts and Pone has gained 2pts. We still just have a slight advantage in postion but I think we need to peg Offense to redress this. Summary: A-3-4-5 has the most cuts for improvement but only 9 cuts for 8-10pts. Athough it also should peg well the starting value is much lower so can be ruled out. A-4-J-Q has the best starting value by 1¼pt and including the ¼pt for the nob is 1½pt. 3-4-5-Q has many more cuts for improvement and 9 cuts for 10-12pts and It also ought to peg slightly better. Will it catch up the 1½pts? I think it might so I'll throw the A-J. |