March 25, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
45*-38  ?
90%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:06 AM
Lots of cards help this group. And I still get to count the X-X in the crib.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
This decision I made as soon as I saw the last card roll up. Ping action on the eight cut also. Defense on the pegging if possible. dec
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:08 AM
Needed the threes and a wo still like the dec. dec
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:56 AM
I agree with Bob.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:59 AM
Best toss, best hand, highest combined value, great cut, what's not to like.
Guest says: Me
Samgash
402 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:59 AM
Yes. Yes indeed.
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 5:53 AM
Not much to think about. Nice cut.
Guest says: What would you do if you were the pone?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi guest. I'd have to toss (2s-10d). I still have potential for 14, and have three clubs to fake a flush.
Inushtuk1 says: Now what would *you* do if we were the pone, and the pair were 5's instead of 10's?
james500 says: Hi, hope you're all well. The question wasn't asked of me, but as Pone at 45*-38 holding 222355, whatever I discard will give 2 points, so I'd keep 2355 and hope that negative delta reduces the potency of the crib.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 7:33 AM
Not as tricky as I thought. I thought a few might opt for 22.
Inushtuk1 says: I almost did.
spunlex
206 votes

Joined: January 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 8:32 AM
Rosemarie says it all.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 9:08 AM
In the lead, my crib, and no doubt in my mind. Especially with the cut.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 9:32 AM
In Schell's article "Discarding to your crib", he describes the addition method. That would have us toss (2-2) this morning. 6 + 5.82 = 11.82, using Ras's crib averages. The (10-10) is 6 + 4.72 = 10.72. However Schell then goes on to say, "It's worth knowing that the occasions where you *can't* rely on this method usually involve 2-3 or 5-5 combos. The classic example is 2-2-3-3-6-6, where tossing 6-6 works out best, even though it keeps four points less than tossing 2-2. The same is true today, with the added bonus of not even having to sacrifice any combined points before the cut. With that delightful cut I'l. Play off to the lead once again.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 9:40 AM
Being on the West coast, you all have said it all, nothing to add.
Ras2829 says: Hi Goatman: I like goats. Do you grow them? Or is it possible you have a beard like one? What's behind the "Goatman" label?
Guest says: Hi goat an. . . . ever hear of the Goat Doctors treasure? Years later after it was found I have gone back and found a few walker halves one being bend from the chimney falling over or bull dozer clearing the lot. Google "goat Doctor"
Goatman says: Hi Raz just a part of the name I go by...
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 9:59 AM
This is such a powerful scoring combination that no attempt should be made to consider crib values. Even hand the discard been 10-K, hold 2-2-2-3 intact. Similar hands appear with A-2-2-2 or 2-3-3-3. Like where I am at hole 45 and will peg defensively since I know of 12 points in hand, a guaranteed peg, and 2 points in crib. Crib could surprise with a double run if opponent tossed the frequent 9-K. Don't believe this puzzle was submitted with the idea of discarding 2-2. Think it was submitted to test the strength of the 2-3 to own crib. That's a valid consideration as the 2-3 to own crib averages 7.135(2,662)
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you Ras for saving me the trouble of mapping out 2-2-2-3-!0-K and similar. The 2-3 averages 7.14, but there's that infernal negative delta thing again, making it easy to keep all the little ones in our hand.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: For those who might not immediately spot the difference, the 2-3-3-3 combination is particularly high-scoring as the cut of a four spot tallies 17 points and the cut of a 7 or 9 among the mid cards makes for a cool dozen. With the 2-2-2-3 if cutting for a triple run will not score more than 15 points and only the 8 among the mid cards tallies the dozen.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:42 PM
2-2-2-3 improves with every cut except 5555, 7777 with AAAA, 2, 4444, 8888 + 14xXs = 27 cuts for 12pts or more. It will also peg well and of course the 10-10 scores 2pts in the crib. This will far exceed any of the alternatives so, of course, I'll go with that.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:10 PM
It's all been said. Pegging optimally
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:27 PM
At 45*-38 playing an Offense strategy fpr the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-2-2-3___10.52+3.59+4.67=18.78____25.2____58.7
2-3-10-10__8.17+2.48+5.14=15.79____16.6____48.9
2-2-3-10*__9.36+3.20+2.99=15.58____15.1____46.3

Offense_______L5 %___L6 %
2-2-2-3_______2.6_____9.2
2-3-10-10_____2.1_____11.2
2-2-3-10*_____2.6_____13.3

* 2D-10D discard

2-2-2-3 is better for expected averages by 2.99pts and is very much better for both Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 10-10 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.