Monday 3:08 AM

I toyed with keeping the most at start but only starting with two less to have possibly a very minimal crib and feel even with leading the King this would be a more defensive pegging hand also. Short of five cuts overall I have better shots to improve my hand here. dec

   

Monday 4:09 AM

As Pone first hand of the deal, chose offense strategy. Toss 5-9 to dealer leaves a hand with 31 cuts for improvement.

   

Monday 4:09 AM

I need to move down the board, so I'll keep the full six points.

I'll lead the 3, keeping the pair of Kings as long as I can. Maybe I'll have to say "go" after Dealer's second card, and then either:
A. (S)he then has to play out their last 2 cards also, leaving me free to score 20/2+1, or
B. (S)he then has to play out another one of their cards, leaving me in a 2:1 situation where I might score 30/6+1.

   

Monday 4:13 AM

Not sure what Ras has up his sleeve here. If anything it would be Dec's reasoning above. I will stick to the philosophy of offense for the first non-dealer.

   

Monday 4:46 AM

This is the way I have always broken this hand. I'm open to new ideas. Lead a king.

   

Monday 5:32 AM

Gotta keep the 5KK together. Question of 29 or 39 to the other guys crib. I kept the 3 to prevent a 4 cut. King lead.

   

Monday 7:29 AM

Offense as first pone.

   

Monday 7:36 AM

I'm with dec. I'll take the opportunity to throw K-9 to my opponent. 39 cuts for improvement and peg with gusto.

   

Monday 7:40 AM

I think its a straight choice between 3-5-K-K (2-9) and 2-3-5-K (9-K):

3-5-K-K: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = 1¼pts

2-3-5-K: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = 0pts

Potential:

3-5-K-K: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 67.4% up to 8/9/10/12pts with all cuts.

2-3-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 8/10pts with 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 27 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-5-K will peg better than 3-5-K-K with three small close cards and a high card. Although both will peg well.

Position:

As First Pone I'll be playing Offense trying to reach par-hole at 17pts.

Summary:

3-5-K-K starts with 1¼pts more than 2-3-5-K but 2-3-5-K has 39 cuts for improvement of which 27 take it from 4pts to 8-10pts, 4 to 7pts (AAAA) and 8 to 6pts (7777, 8888). This is a significant potential for improvement. With the better pegging will this catch up the 1¼pts? I think it might be close but I'm inclined to go with the 9-K throw and I'll make it unsuited just in case!

   

Monday 8:18 AM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-5-KC__7.17+1.65+(-3.92)=4.90____25.3____24.4
3-5-K-K___8.00+1.39+(-4.62)=4.77____25.8____25.0

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-5-KC_____37.0____50.0
3-5-K-K______36.8____49.5

2-3-5-KC is better for expected averages by 0.13pt and although 3-5-K-K is very slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s, because it is the start of the game I'll put most weight on the expected averages. So I'll select 9-KD to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead___Our Pegging Pts.__W9 %___W10 %__L9 %__L10 %
3__________2.16__________25.7___26.9___25.3___47.3
K__________2.02__________25.4___25.9___26.2___48.3
2__________2.10__________25.3___25.8___25.2___47.2
5__________1.88__________25.0___24.4___27.6___50.1

   

Monday 8:47 AM

There are some hands that fairly cry out for a defensive toss, even as Pone of the first deal. I expect this is one of them. Hence Ras's reason for submitting it. I suppose 2-3-5-10-K-K would be the same at 0-0*. Toss the unsuited (10-K). There are probably several more. Perhaps Ras will elaborate on the other examples, where it pays to sacrifice two points at the start, to make the defensive discard.

Sometimes the best offense is a good defense. And as Hal points out above it's really not that much of a defensive sacrifice. The average hand is less than one point lower, and it pegs better offensively as well.

This reminds me a bit of the annotated game between Heath and Wilson, as outlined in Cribbage Forum.

   

Monday 8:51 AM

Well it appears that my play is way down there. I chose to discard the 5-9. I ended up with 12 points. I like to discard the 5 into my crib whenever it's possible especially when it doesn't change the value of my hand. I ended up with 12 points in my hand and who knows what in the crib.

   

Monday 9:19 AM

leading the King is better defense and should keep me out of a run.

   

Monday 10:38 AM

I'm thinking the sacrifice of two points is worth the 9 k discard. This keep should peg better.

   

Monday 10:57 AM

Starting as pone I want to making up some points pegging and limit the crib.

   

Monday 11:36 AM

I'm with the crowd here on the hold, but I think lead here depends on who I'm playing.

There are some who will never ever pair a lead card on first deal as dealer - I'm leading a 3 against those folks.

Otherwise I'm on board with a K lead. Starting to think 5-9 is the toss as it still holds 6, is a better pegger and I'm not so scared of 5-9 in the crib.

   

Monday 12:11 PM

Inuhstuk1 says much of what is needed to be said about this puzzle. Offense is not always what it seems. Holding 2-3-5-K from this group of six allows the discard of that low-scoring 9-K to opponent crib. The added pegging potential of three lower cards and the lower scoring crib more than makes up for playing four points instead of the six with 3-5-K-K. It works this way with a few similar hands(2-3-5-9-Q-Q, 2-3-5-9-K-K, or 2-3-5-10-K-K). In these hands, toss 9-Q, 9-K, or 10-K respectively. It will not work if you drop further down the list. Generally would not advise giving up more than one point in hand value if choosing an offense strategy. Will lead the trey. If had retained 3-5-K-K, would have led the King. Try it you'll like it when these cards show. The 10-K and 9-K as here are the only two of 91 discards that score less than 4.0 points to opponent crib. These are low scoring as they score so many cribs of 0-2 points. The 10-K, scores two or less 45.494%; 9-Q does so 42.224%; and 9-K wades in with 38.143%. On the other end of the scale,these discard combinations seldom score 12 or more points: 9-K does so .871% (that's less than 1/100); 9-Q does so at a 1.495%rate; and the 10-K tallies 12 or more 2.111%. Those are great numbers with a very lop-sided ratio of low-scoring to high-scoring cribs and appreciate the substantive comments from those posting.

   

Monday 5:53 PM

Starting the game this is the best for me keeping the 5-K-K and the wide cards to the dealers crib.
Grass Roots tonight.