March 29, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
94-92*  ?
55%
28%
7%
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 200
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:08 AM
They are short J-10 sounds like a possibility of a good crib. While a dozen plus hand wpuld be pretty deep do not think I can get into that last bar with the ability to peg out next hand before its count. Defense. dec
Ras2829 says: Hi dec: Like your thoughts in this position. More later.
Ras2829 says: Except for the remaining 5-5-6. Why not 5-5-7?
Guest says: I know I thought about the seven discard but I thought a six might give a decent crib for them also. Live and learn today. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Hi guys. If wanting to avoid the (6-7), or (10-J), I would keep the 6 with the fives as well. (10-7), or (10-6) are about the same. Granted we are less likely to get that GO if our J lead is paired.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:08 AM
I would rather toss the X-J to the dealers crib than the 6-7.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:23 AM
I chose the stronger hand and a weaker toss to dealer in this position.
Guest says: C.Liam Brown site is currently conducting a brief survey. Would be nice if users of this site could take part.
Inushtuk1 says: I did about 15 minutes ago Rosemarie44.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Inushtuk1, that is a Guest, not me, But I did take the survey.
Inushtuk1 says: Ok. Glad you did too.
duke62
1483 votes

Joined: September 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:29 AM
I've learned to be conservative from here. Don't want to give opponent a shot at 16+. And keeping the 5-6 together still give me potential for a big hand as well as "magic 11". Lead the 6.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:45 AM
I will hold the double run. Lead the 7, dump the 5s.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:00 AM
At this stage of the game, six points for me is plenty. I'll choose 10-6 in order to slow the Dealer down.
As I know where 2 fives are, I'll lead the Jack.
Ras2829 says: Cribbot might not agree with your choice. RAS does
Ras2829 says: More later!
james500 says: Thanks. Always encouraging when a selection receives the endorsement of yourself or other contributors.
Guest says: tommy two times
spunlex
206 votes

Joined: January 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:11 AM
Dreaming big today
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:12 AM
I'll keep six points and deal next from 100 plus. Dealer a a couple points short and 6-10 is the worst discard from this mix. I'll lead the Jack.
Ras2829 says: Hi glmc: Like it!
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:26 AM
I'm with glmccuskey here.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:35 AM
A 16 or 17 hand, even with a couple pegs, does not get us out, or even close enough to peg out next hand.Good bye 610.
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: Takes courage to make such a choice. From my perspective you got it just right . More later!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Jazzselke, Ras, and all those who chose this option. Assuming you lead your J; what happens if it is paired? Will you play your 7, trying for the GO? Perhaps Dealer has A-4-X-? That's (31-2). So we've given up 4 points on the first play series. All right, maybe it's better to dump one of the 5's after Dealer pairs our J. Dealer may have been holding A-4-5-J. Playing offense, pairing our J, eschewing the (15-2), would have been the correct play. Now he plays his/her 5 for (30-2); followed by a (31-2). Not good. You can see that the 5-5-X-X(6-7), while being a risky keep, does have better defensive pegging prospects over the more conservative keeps. Perhaps that is the reason for the cribbots choice, as alluded to by Ras's comment in james500's post. Perhaps I am just trying to defend my weak position. Perhaps I just wanted to use that cool word "eschew". ; - )
Jazzselke says: I would play the 7 on his Jack. If he has the 4 for 31, he has an 8-point hand and probably a lousy crib. So he is going to be 14-16 points out. I would rather take that situation vs. a crib with the 67.
Inushtuk1 says: Very good. Thank you Jazzselke.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:02 AM
Let me be the first one to state that I just couldn't sacrifice 2 or 4 points here. The possibility of 21 points was just too much to pass up. I'm dreaming even bigger than spunlex I guess.

Well that didn't work. Leading my J in order to be rid of it; and like james500 says; I know where 2 fives are.

BTW, my wife and I are headed to Brookline, NH this weekend for the 7th annual Granite State Cribbage Classic. Come and give me another cribbage lesson all you people on the northeast coast; as the northwest peggers did two weeks ago.
bbaer1 says: Quite a few regulars will be there. Myself, Gougie00, and dec from the local GR club and a bunch from out of state. Might need to know your name in order to say hi!
Inushtuk1 says: Great! I'll be the one with the gray hair. Wait a second. That description fits about 85-90 % of tourney players. No, I'll be the only one wearing a white cap with the word Henselite on the front, and a navy blue sleeveless vest, with a red maple leaf over the left breast pocket. The name's Mike. I'll probably also be the only one who says 'eh'' all the time. That should narrow it down pretty fine. ; - )
bbaer1 says: And I'll be the tallest guy in the room, easy to spot as long as I'm standing.
Inushtuk1 says: Okay, I'll probably be second or third tallest then.
Guest says: Brian will be easy to find. He's the tallest guy in the room.
Guest says: He usually wear a Cincinnati Bengals sweatshirt. A glutton for punishment.
JRCeagle78 says: Good luck at Brookline. I'll try to find you and introduce myself. I'll be wearing one of my "spinner" jerseys.
lindy
515 votes

Joined: August 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:19 AM
I will discard as defensively as I can. Dealer is short and I need to keep her there. Will take only the safest pegs.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:29 PM
Thanks for the lesson about the 5-5-7-J. As you can tell, I went with the slightly more conservative approach. Which hand is better when playing defense?
Inushtuk1 says: I would guess your way would be the best when playing defense. Get rid of the touchers See you at Brookline, and good luck to you as well. P.S. What's a "spinner" jersey? We're you a member of that Motown group from the 60's and 70's? ; - )
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:47 PM
After having got timed out twice, have moved over to textmaker, will edit and copy to CHOD site. Actually this if a very good puzzle thanks to AndyMuesli64. Want to organize my thoughts as they pertain. Dealer is three holes short of 4th street CPZ (95-99), and RAS needs to reach that zone to deal. No real incentive for me to have a hjigh-scoring hand here; slowing dealer progress is more important. When dealer is 2-5 holes short to deal in this final leg of the game, I have very good results winning by slowing dealer than by being overly concerned about my moving down the board. Having said that, I would have retaind hand with a chance for 24-29 points. Here the best I could score would be 21 points by finding one card (the 5h) in the remaining 46. Then it comes down to which cards to retain as have decided to discard 10 spot with the 6 or 7. Those averages are about equal. That 5-5-6 combination does not work well for the non-dealer although often works well for dealer. So the 5-5-7 is much preferable and the 7 often becomes the key card in getting the non-dealer out of pegging difficult as the count may be advanced to 22 or more. See posting of jazzselke above, replies, and responses to get a clearer view of how these cards work. So have decided on a defense strategy and will play off dealer response to my cards where possible. Do I lead the Jack or a five? Prefer the lead of the Jack as it allows me to outpeg the dealer should all four fives be in play. If dealer makes 15-2 on my Jack lead, I pair for count of 20 and score two pegs. If dealer played the five spot from a pair, likely will peg the six pegs for the triple and advance the count to 25. I respond to advance the count o 30, score 12 pegs, and a “go” most often. So I have pegged 15 holes to the dealer 8 and know that I have reached a minimum of hole 115. Turn that over and lead the five and dealer outpegs me a likely 15 holes to my 8 pegs for the 15-8. And is is very unlikely that all four fives will be in play; my goal is to avoid pegs. Want to drop one of those fives as my second card played. Would do so if the dealer responds to my Jack lead with A, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, or K. That would leave me with 5-7 and the likely lead. Would lead the five if looking at A, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, or, 9 on the dealer side of the table. What? You would lead yhe five even if seeing 3-4 or 4-6 on the other side? Sure would as my experience suggests that opponent will peg more if I keep that lone 5 until final card played. Will come out better (often not giving up pegs at all by leading it and escape with the 7 as last carfd played. Would lead the 7 if large cards are on the table. Better to take your chances on holdinga lone 7 rather than a lone 5 until end of pegging play. That five is so easy to pickoff with 3-4, 4-6, or 6-7 for a run of three, and a go, or 15-2 as would be the case with the 4-6. By the way in previous queries I’ve run on these cards from these positions with the Cribbage Prof, the 5-5-10-J with the 6-7 discard is recommended. Sorry Prof, I’m playing it this way and that’s one of the reasons I’m leading the Prof in this 1,000 game series by 62 wins
Inushtuk1 says: Wow!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. One question. How far back would you need to be before switching to offense with these 6 cards?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Good question. Would not play the six points if I had been at hole 88 or fewer. Then it would have been to hold the ten points. My pegging strategy would have still been defensive as would seem pegs for dealer would be of grearter value than pegs for me.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:08 PM
I think the choices are 5-5-10-J (6-7), 5-5-6-J (7-10) and 5-5-6-7 (10-J):

5-5-10-J: 10pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = 4pts
5-5-6-J: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = 2¾pts
5-5-6-7: 8pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 2¼pts

Potential:

5-5-10-J: Improves with 55, 9999 + 15xXs = 21 cuts = 21/46 = 45.6% up to 13/14/16/17/20pts with all cuts.

5-5-6-J: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 777, 9999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 777 + 14xXs = 23 cuts.

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12/14/16/17pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well but I think 5-5-6-7 will peg best.

Position:

We're very close to par-hole and so is Dealer I think we need to peg cautiously to keep Dealer short.

Summary:

5-5-10-J has the best starting value but 5-5-6-7 has tremendous potential for 10-17pts with 42 cuts. Also I think the 10-J discard is safer than 6-7 plus perhaps 5-5-6-7 will peg better? A 5 lead possibly? So I'll throw the 10-J.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:14 PM
At 94-92* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Net
Optimal____Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %__W2 %
5-5-10-J___12.67+(-1.67)+(-5.72)=5.78___0.2___47.3
5-5-6-7____12.22+(-2.70)+(-5.31)=4.22___0.2___45.5
5-5-6-J_____9.50+(-2.28)+(-3.90)=3.32___0.0___38.4
5-5-7-J_____8.98+(-2.22)+(-3.90)=2.87___0.0___35.7

Optimal________L1 %___L2 %
5-5-10-J_______3.0____30.8
5-5-6-7________2.2____32.5
5-5-6-J________0.9____24.0
5-5-7-J________0.6____23.0

5-5-10-J is best for expected averages by 1.56pts over 5-5-6-7 and is also best for Win %s. 5-5-6-J and 5-5-7-J are much better for Loss %s because of the much safer 7-10 and 6-10 discards but because of the much higher expected averages and Win %s for 5-5-10-J I'll select the 6-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead__Dealer's Pegging Pts._W1 %__W2 %__L1 %__L2 %
10_________(-2.63)__________33.9__67.4__32.5__18.8
J__________(-2.66)__________34.1__67.3__32.6__18.9
5__________(-3.53)__________30.8__62.8__36.8__22.9