April 17, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
97*-94  ?
43%
40%
13%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 210

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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:45 AM
I would guess offense and defense in this position today. I would want to gain enough points to get into position for next hand so that I would be able to peg and count out first as pone. Nice one Ras.
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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 4:06 AM
In a lot of other places I would throw J-Q but here I will start with all the points. Now at least at 111 I will still peg carefully get rid of the Jack on the middle pegs. dec
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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:28 AM
I've chosen 5-T-J-Q because it is worth 9 points, as opposed to 4-5-6-X which is only worth 7.

4-5-6-X increases in value with a greater number of cuts however, and may peg a little better. Will this make up for the two point disadvantage though? Interesting puzzle Ras.

* A query to those who would choose 4-5-6-X, is it better to discard T-J or J-Q?
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Gougie00
3351 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:28 AM
Another learning opportunity. Do I toss myself 46 or 10-J? Since I think I want to peg, I kept the smaller cards. Where's the 5 cut?
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cribbagepogo
2431 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 4:33 AM
Keeping the most points and here I don't want to get into a pegging battle, keep pone back as far as I can.
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LoneStarPegger
556 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Monday 5:06 AM
I kept the wee run for pegging and tossed 10-J. I recalled a discussion where it was best of XX non-pair toss to my crib.
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glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 5:54 AM
Most cuts get me back to at least nine points with a face card helping both hand and crib. Hard to throw away 5-10-J-Q but don't like the 4-6 discard. Wth the non dealer at 94 I can peg with reckless abandon. I've got a hand, crib, next hand and pegging to get to 121. Peddle to the metal.
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bbaer1
2187 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Monday 8:46 AM
I'm keeping the 4-5-6 together here, too many good things can happen. The odds of the 4-6 toss to myself helping out are slim as pone probably won't be giving me nickels on fourth street, would have to cut one. On the other hand, the J-Q to myself is often helped by a "balking" 10-K from pone, or even their propensity to throw Ks in general as an "edge" card. Will fifteen any ten card lead.
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BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

Monday 8:53 AM
The lure of the sixteen hand made my mind up this morning.
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The_Bee_Mann
303 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Monday 8:57 AM
This hand I have had many times. I am glad to see it here. I thought about discarding the 4 and 6, but I doubt the pone would discard a 5. So I chose to discard the 10 and J. Could have discard the J and Q. Either way would have been ok although based on the cut J and Q was the best discard. Usually I get this hand when I am the pone. I am curious to see what others have to say about this hand.
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Inushtuk1
407 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 9:22 AM
I'm going with an offensive strategy. Normally that would mean tossing the (J-Q) to my box. The lower average hand is made up for by the higher average crib, and much better pegging. However the 5-10-J-Q has more chances for 16 or 17 points, despite fewer cuts for overall improvement. At this late stage of the game a 16-17 point hand, with a bit of luck, puts me out this hand, or puts me in great shape as Pone next hand. On first or second Street, on offense, would have kept the better pegging hand of 4-5-6-10. Early in the game on defense would keep the 5-10-J-Q.

After the cut switching to defense. Take the 15-2 if offered. More to be rid of it than anything else.
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mtmccarthy
235 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 10:32 AM
Is anyone having this issue? When I click on "Continue playing here", I get a message that says "unfortunately, this feature is no longer available". and I cannot play out the rest of the game. It has been like this for 2-3 days. Anyone else?
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Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:57 PM
This is a hand (or similar) often seen in play. In my view there is no reason to play defense here. Would take a pair on most any thing except the 10 spot. In that case would play the five for 15-2 and a reasonable chance to score the 31-2 also. Two points for me would be of far greater value than giving up six to opponent since RAS has first count on next deal. The closer I am to that game hole, the greater chance I have for winning. You mean holding 7 instead of 9 points provides more offense? Yup! If you hold 5-10-J-Q for nine, you short-change yourself in the crib with the 4-6 discard and you give up considerable pegging potential. Even though potential hand score will be greater by more than two points
holding 5-10-J-Q,the lower crib and fewer pegs on average will total nearly three points. So it is the 4-5-6-10 with J-Q discard. With the king cut we can be assured of 9 points in hand, a dealer guaranteed peg, and a minimum of four in the crib (although we only need one J-Q-K discarded by opponent to have an 8 point crib. Counting only the known points that would put us at 111. The 4-5-6 averages 3.72 pegs according to Cribbage Prof, which I just queried. If we can peg that average, will be at 114. So think you can see from that we need to move down the board, short of giving up 12 pegs. Even so, we would probably still win giving up 12 pegs to non-dealer. The lone four or the lone 5 could result in that type of scenario although not frequent. Much more likely to see that with a lone A-2-3.
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:33 PM
Three best possibilities are, I think, 5-10-J-Q (4-6), 4-5-6-10 (J-Q) and 4-5-6-Q (10-J):

5-10-J-Q: 9pts + 4pts (schell: 3.85) = 13pts

4-5-6-10: 7pts + 4ūpts (Schell: 4.81) = 11ūpts

4-5-6-Q: 7pts + 4ūpts (Schell: 4.61) = 11ūpts

Potential:

5-10-J-Q: Improves with 555, 9999 + 13xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 12/16/17pts with 555, 101010, JJJ, QQQ, KKKK = 16 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt

4-5-6-10: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 13xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, 101010 = 12 cuts.

4-5-6-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 13xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 12 cuts.

Pegging:

4-5-6-X should peg better than 5-10-J-Q and I think 4-5-6-10 will peg fractionally better than 4-5-6-Q.

Position:

We're in the 4th street CPZ with a slight ;lead so we have significant positional advantage. I'll play Defense to consolidate this position.

Summary:

Schell puts the J-Q discard at slightly better than 10-J despite the slightly curtailed possibility of the run. I think this is because of the frquency of Pone throwing a K and of course here being suited it helps by approx. 0.04pt. But is 5-10-J-Q better? It starts with 1žpt more and has 16 cuts for a good hand instead of 12 and a higher maximum at 17pts. Also it has the benefit of keeping the J for 0.24pt and playing Defense I think it will peg well compared to 4-5-6-X. So I'll play the 9pts and throw 4-6.
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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:21 PM
At 97*-94 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
4-5-6-10__9.72+3.72+4.42=17.86____6.4____66.0
5-10-J-Q_11.46+2.50+3.74=17.70____9.3____70.2
4-5-6-Q___9.72+3.72+4.06=17.50____5.4____64.0

Offense_______L1 %___L2 %
4-5-6-10______0.2____13.0
5-10-J-Q______0.1____10.5
4-5-6-Q_______0.2____13.5

4-5-6-10 is best for expected averages by 0.16pt but in this critical board position 5-10-J-Q is best for Win %s and Loss %s by a significant amount. So I'll select 4-6 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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