April 18, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
9-3*  ?
59%
30%
8%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 221

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Rosemarie44
493 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:07 AM
Who are we trying to match today, Ras or Hal or both????? Going with tossing 2-K to opponent. The value ( exp. average hand minus crib ) is close: J-K, 3.11 points and 2-K, 2.98 points.
Reply
JQT
2041 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:11 AM
Let's Throw Some Faces 'Over the Board' Today.
Reply
dec
3639 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:18 AM
I prefer not to gave my opponent sn eight point opportunity that way. dec
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glmccuskey
2315 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 4:24 AM
I want to keep the 4-4-5 together and I like the Jack. It's a key connector in the crib and I don't like throwing it with the king. I'll lead a four.
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james500
1445 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:40 AM
Had the two X's been T-K, T-Q or Q-K, (that's to say, not been a pair and not included a Jack), I would've been much more tempted by 2-4-4-5.
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LoneStarPegger
547 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Tuesday 4:43 AM
I'm with the Peloton today!
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Jazzselke
770 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:25 AM
Although 2445 would include a 3-card 15, don't believe it is worth throwing JK. We still have an open-ended double-run possibility, the 2 would only add 2 points if the 3 was cut.
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jmath714
393 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Tuesday 6:25 AM
My first instinct was the K-2, but then took a closer look at position. At only 9, I need some points here, and 2-4-4-5 should peg better and gives me more cuts at 6 or 8. With the J cut, I'll lead the 4 and hope to see some faces from my opponent.

Curious to read Raz & Hal here, I could be wrong here.
Reply
Gougie00
3178 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:27 AM
Torn between 2K and JK. Looks like both sides had a rough start. I kept the Jack as an escape card. Lead the 4, and unless I'm forced to engage, (a 6 or 7 reply) I'll play defensive.
Reply
BigFoot Bob
432 votes

Joined: April 2016

Tuesday 6:39 AM
Kinda hoping for a six on the cut to save this hand.
Reply
Inushtuk1
271 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 8:12 AM
This is a Ras puzzle. So you know there is probably a surprise *learning* opportunity in store for us. I think the surprise is that (J-K) is not quite as dangerous as it might appear on the surface. Don't forget that nasty negative delta with us holding a 5. Not to mention the 3-card eleven we can hold with 2-4-4-5. So to sum up; (J-K) not *that* much worse than (2-K), and better pegging potential with 2-4-4-5, gives the face card toss the edge.

Too bad about that J cut. Lead the 4d from th 3-card 11.
Reply
spin121
89 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 9:04 AM
If a 3 is cut to go with the 2K I tossed, at least it hits my hand also.
Reply
spunlex
154 votes

Joined: January 2017

   
Tuesday 10:03 AM
Is this puzzle hadn't​ been submitted by RAS I would​ have quickly tossed 2-K. Thinking there was something I was missing I went through the same process as Inushtuk and reached a similar conclusion. Eager to hear RAS's take.
Reply
Ras2829
2672 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 3:09 PM
This hand is from a live game some years back and a six spot was cut. Several times since, a trey or four has been cut for a nifty 12 points. Ran a query on Cribbage Prof way back when to open my eyes to the prospect of holding the 2-4-4-5. If this hand works this way with a J-K discard to opponent, you can know it will work even better when those X-pointers, are 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K., etc. What Inustuk1 has to say is about what I would echo. I'm playing offense with opponent at hole 3 and so I would keep if playing optimal, my second choice as strategy. If playing a defense strategy, the 2-K 4,453 (1,253) 17/91 would be a slightly more defensive toss to opponent crib than the J-K 4.627 (1,369) 27/91. Will lesd the 4d and take pegs as offered. Inushtuk1 makes a good point about dropping the deuce if dealer responds with a X-pointer on the four lead to make the count 16 so as to close the count for 31-2 with the lone 5s. In other pegging situations without one of those "elevens from heaven" showing the same card a second time is often a good thing to do as it makes the hand more difficult to read if looking at the same card twice. For example I have a better chance to read your hand if you show me a 3-4 rather than 4-4. More difficult to read your hand if you show me 10-10 rather than 9-10. If in need of pegs, don't worry about showing the same card twice. Take the 15-2, a run, or put a magic elven to work.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3156 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:54 PM
My inclination is to keep 4-4-5-J and keep the double-run potential and the J but let's look at 2-4-5-5 (J-K) as well:


4-4-5-J: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.45) = -½pt

2-4-4-5: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.77) = -1pt

Potential:

4-4-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/14pts with AAAA, 3333, 44, 555, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-4-4-5 will peg better than 4-4-5-J as it has more low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We need to reach par-hole at 17pts which with a good cut we will. It would be good to hold dealer back so if I get the cut I'll play Defense and if not cautious offense.

Summary:

2-4-4-5 starts with ½pt less ( or 0.32pt according to Schell) but has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for 8-14pts plus I believe it will peg better. 4-4-5-J also has the benefit of the J for his nob. Even so I think 2-4-4-5 will more than make up the ¾pt difference so I'll throw the J-K. After the J cut I'll lead the 4 and play cautious Offense.
Reply
HalscribCLX
2901 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 4:30 PM
At 9-3* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-4-4-5___7.74+2.07+(-4.69)=5.12____51.8____40.9
4-4-5-J___7.43+1.57+(-4.20)=4.80____49.8____40.2

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-4-4-5______46.4____38.7
4-4-5-J______44.6____39.2

2-4-4-5 is better for expected averages by 0.32pt and is also appreciably better for Win %s and only slightly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select J-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead__Our Pegging Pts.__W9 %__W10 %__L9 %__L10 %
4_________2.31__________45.2__29.6___29.9__48.6
2_________1.98__________44.2__28.4___30.8__49.7
5_________1.89__________43.9__26.5___32.4__51.5
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