April 19, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
115-118*  ?
42%
27%
21%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:05 AM
Today's scenario calls for pegging and counting out first as pone before dealer is out. Every cut increased the value of this hand with a minimum of 4 points to a maximum of 8 points.
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:19 AM
To me it's all about the Ace lead. But correct on assesment of hand improvement with cuts. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:46 AM
Keep (A 5 6 8) looks best for winning.

But note that Keep (A 5 6 Q) is probably the SECOND BEST or 'Runner Up' today, because if there is a Jack Cut, then Dealer will PEG OUT with certainty anyway, thus the Queen becomes a better 'helper' card than the Jack today.

I'll probably lead 'from the middle' here, the 6 Card. If we lead the Ace we could easily get 'all jammed up' for instance after a 7 Card reply.
JQT says: While we can get a significantly higher Average Hand Total after Toss (A 8), since we are already at Hole 115, we really only need Six Points. And while after Toss (A 8) we would have Twenty-Two Cuts that give us those Six Points or more, we can also get those 6 Points or more after Twenty-One Cuts if we Toss (J Q) instead! And I'd much rather worry about one fewer helpful cuts with Keep (A 5 6 8), a hand that has a much greater chance of negotiating the pegging challenges here. I'm still not too fond of leading our Ace however: it's our safest lead, but it's NOT our safest overall play in order to survive a Dealer who sits at Hole 118. But still, if we give up two holes with our lead card, we've essentially lost the battle, so it's not an easy decision.
JQT says: If Dealer scores an immediate (15-2) or PAIR, Dealer will STILL get either Last Card or a "go," therefore, it's essentially a Pegging Race if this occurs, and we'd like to therefore parry the Dealer if points are scored upon our lead card. Only by leading the 8 Card, and if Dealer grabs (15-2) with a 7 Card, could we then still threaten to win by playing our 6 Card for (21-3) and leaving the Count at Twenty-One and the score at (118-120). The Dealer could then win with several cards: (555, 666, 888, 9999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQ, KKKK). But after Dealer plays another 7 Card, or after Dealer plays any Low-Ranking Card, at least we would still have a chance of winning! Knowing when to switch from DEFENSE to OFFENSE is crucial during Endgame Pegging situations such as these, and against a Dealer at Hole 118 this happens quite frequently, either when the Dealer PAIRS or scores (15-2) on the Lead Card, or when the Dealer Cuts a Jack: in those circumstances, we must immediately "flip the switch" from DEFENSE to OFFENSE, as we truly mo longer have anything (else) to lose (but the game itself!)
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. Thanks for this. However if Dealer plays a 5 for (26), our 5 puts us out, with (31-4). But great advice about knowing when to switch from DEFENSE to OFFENSE. Not one of my, (forgive the pun) strong suits.
JQT says: Ahh, but remember the score and the scenario we are struggling with today (115-118*): 8 (8) 7 (15=2) 6 (21-3) 5 (26=4) and Dealer is VICTORIOUS - if only we COULD now PAIR that 5 Card!
Inushtuk1 says: I see said the blind man.
james500
3918 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:04 AM
There are fewer scoring replies to an Ace lead than to any other card, although I take JQT'S point about a middle card response making it awkward for us.

Maybe the "see one, play one" tactic of leading might be better, keeping the Ace as an escape card?
glmccuskey
4096 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:58 AM
I think this will peg more defensively if I get a cut for 6 or more points. Looks like I'm the Lone Ranger. I'll lead the six.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:03 AM
Keeps the count as low as possible and ace lead.
bbaer1
3687 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:16 AM
Keep your peggers.
Inushtuk1
1482 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:46 AM
Most important thing is to have enough to count out. This hand has the highest average hand. I'll lead my Q.
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:46 AM
I guessed wrong
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:19 AM
As others have said, I need points first. 5-6-J-Q has the highest potential. A cut of 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, J, Q, K puts me out (but a Jack cut pretty much means I lose as dealer would be out during the play).
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:25 AM
This is a time to control the pegging. I will discard the two face cards. With the cut I have enough to go out. So my plan would be to minimize the pegging points. I want only goes. The dealer is going to keep pegging cards so I think I would lead with the 6 or 8.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:22 PM
Lead the ace and try my best to avoid pegging but if I have to, let him lead to me. With 3 middle cards, I could easily be led into a trap run. Since I do not have the necessary points before the cut, I had to hold the 5. Normally if I had enough points the 5 would be in his uncountable crib.

As Tweety often says "Be vewy, vewy, caweful!"
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:18 PM
I think we must either keep 4pts or the potential to score at least 4pts. A-5-6-8 improves with any cut to 4/6/7/8pts and there are 21 cuts for 6pts or more AAA, 4444, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 21 cuts. To keep 4pts its either A-5-J-Q, 5-6-J-Q or 5-8-J-Q. I think the A may be dangerous and 5-6-J-Q has more cuts for improvement with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts. I think with 5-6-J-Q it will be easier to play Defense but if we don't get a cut for improvement we should be able to peg 2pts with a little luck. So I'll throw the A-8.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:52 PM
Very difficult to limit dealer to two pegs. Takes a lot of luck to do so as it's about 85/15 favoring the dealer to score three pegs. RAS is close enough that dealer may skip pairing as six pegs gives me the win. Dealer will take 15-2 in any shape, knowing that I cannot peg out no matter what my response. So got to keep as many points as possible up to six. If I had a hand with more than six points would trim it back to six (e.g. if 6-7-8-9-9-K would retain 6-9-9-K).
Will lead the Queen which is safer than the J in end game such as this. Since need pegs will keep 5-6 intact as might be able to pair a six or pick off a stray four or seven in later pegging sequence. If I did not need pegs, would drop the five if looks reasonably safe as second card played as dealer would have played a five spot to score 15-2 if had one. Remember with the lousy cut, we need two pegs. My choice of strategy prior to seeing the starter card was defense. Once not picking up a point with the cut, I have moved to cautious offense.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:01 PM
At 115-118* playing an Offense strategy the Hold Enough %s and Dealer Peg Out %s are:

Offense_____Hold Out %_____Dlr Peg Out %
5-6-J-Q_______92.0____________60.9
5-8-J-Q_______87.9____________59.8
A-5-J-Q_______85.5____________70.4
A-5-6-8_______84.2____________78.1

5-6-J-Q is best for Chances of Holding Enough and is a close second best for holding Dealer in the pegging. So I'll select the A-8 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead the Q and play Optimally:

Lead___________Win %
Q______________7.7
J______________7.0
6______________1.4
5______________0.1
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:26 PM
Late but on the mark
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 12:18 AM
I have to hold the dealer from pegging three. Keep this four cards for four points, and hope for a cut that gives me a total of two more points. No Problem!
With the cut . . . . I need some pegs.