April 19, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
115-118*  ?
42%
27%
21%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214

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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:05 AM
Today's scenario calls for pegging and counting out first as pone before dealer is out. Every cut increased the value of this hand with a minimum of 4 points to a maximum of 8 points.
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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:19 AM
To me it's all about the Ace lead. But correct on assesment of hand improvement with cuts. dec
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JQT
2114 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 4:46 AM
Keep (A 5 6 8) looks best for winning.

But note that Keep (A 5 6 Q) is probably the SECOND BEST or 'Runner Up' today, because if there is a Jack Cut, then Dealer will PEG OUT with certainty anyway, thus the Queen becomes a better 'helper' card than the Jack today.

I'll probably lead 'from the middle' here, the 6 Card. If we lead the Ace we could easily get 'all jammed up' for instance after a 7 Card reply.
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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:04 AM
There are fewer scoring replies to an Ace lead than to any other card, although I take JQT'S point about a middle card response making it awkward for us.

Maybe the "see one, play one" tactic of leading might be better, keeping the Ace as an escape card?
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glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 5:58 AM
I think this will peg more defensively if I get a cut for 6 or more points. Looks like I'm the Lone Ranger. I'll lead the six.
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spin121
238 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 6:03 AM
Keeps the count as low as possible and ace lead.
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bbaer1
2187 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Wednesday 7:16 AM
Keep your peggers.
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Inushtuk1
407 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 7:46 AM
Most important thing is to have enough to count out. This hand has the highest average hand. I'll lead my Q.
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Gougie00
3351 votes

Joined: March 2008

Wednesday 7:46 AM
I guessed wrong
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wasa
744 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 8:19 AM
As others have said, I need points first. 5-6-J-Q has the highest potential. A cut of 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, J, Q, K puts me out (but a Jack cut pretty much means I lose as dealer would be out during the play).
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The_Bee_Mann
303 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Wednesday 9:25 AM
This is a time to control the pegging. I will discard the two face cards. With the cut I have enough to go out. So my plan would be to minimize the pegging points. I want only goes. The dealer is going to keep pegging cards so I think I would lead with the 6 or 8.
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JRCeagle78
333 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 12:22 PM
Lead the ace and try my best to avoid pegging but if I have to, let him lead to me. With 3 middle cards, I could easily be led into a trap run. Since I do not have the necessary points before the cut, I had to hold the 5. Normally if I had enough points the 5 would be in his uncountable crib.

As Tweety often says "Be vewy, vewy, caweful!"
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 2:18 PM
I think we must either keep 4pts or the potential to score at least 4pts. A-5-6-8 improves with any cut to 4/6/7/8pts and there are 21 cuts for 6pts or more AAA, 4444, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 21 cuts. To keep 4pts its either A-5-J-Q, 5-6-J-Q or 5-8-J-Q. I think the A may be dangerous and 5-6-J-Q has more cuts for improvement with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts. I think with 5-6-J-Q it will be easier to play Defense but if we don't get a cut for improvement we should be able to peg 2pts with a little luck. So I'll throw the A-8.
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Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 2:52 PM
Very difficult to limit dealer to two pegs. Takes a lot of luck to do so as it's about 85/15 favoring the dealer to score three pegs. RAS is close enough that dealer may skip pairing as six pegs gives me the win. Dealer will take 15-2 in any shape, knowing that I cannot peg out no matter what my response. So got to keep as many points as possible up to six. If I had a hand with more than six points would trim it back to six (e.g. if 6-7-8-9-9-K would retain 6-9-9-K).
Will lead the Queen which is safer than the J in end game such as this. Since need pegs will keep 5-6 intact as might be able to pair a six or pick off a stray four or seven in later pegging sequence. If I did not need pegs, would drop the five if looks reasonably safe as second card played as dealer would have played a five spot to score 15-2 if had one. Remember with the lousy cut, we need two pegs. My choice of strategy prior to seeing the starter card was defense. Once not picking up a point with the cut, I have moved to cautious offense.
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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 3:01 PM
At 115-118* playing an Offense strategy the Hold Enough %s and Dealer Peg Out %s are:

Offense_____Hold Out %_____Dlr Peg Out %
5-6-J-Q_______92.0____________60.9
5-8-J-Q_______87.9____________59.8
A-5-J-Q_______85.5____________70.4
A-5-6-8_______84.2____________78.1

5-6-J-Q is best for Chances of Holding Enough and is a close second best for holding Dealer in the pegging. So I'll select the A-8 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead the Q and play Optimally:

Lead___________Win %
Q______________7.7
J______________7.0
6______________1.4
5______________0.1
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LoneStarPegger
556 votes

Joined: January 2008

Wednesday 10:26 PM
Late but on the mark
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BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

Thursday 12:18 AM
I have to hold the dealer from pegging three. Keep this four cards for four points, and hope for a cut that gives me a total of two more points. No Problem!
With the cut . . . . I need some pegs.
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