Saturday 3:29 AM

AS much as I can see throwing 6-9 I believe we need some defense here. I will lead the six here however and see if I could peg a few here. dec

   

Saturday 3:45 AM

To be in position for next deal we only need to reach par hole 44 so toss 2-7 it is to dealer. Combined value of this hand is 2.55 points (avg. expected hand 7.35 minus crib 4.80). Toss 6-9 to dealer statistics are: combined value 1.89 points (avg. expected hand 8.09 minus crib 6.20).

   

Saturday 4:21 AM

I can't see giving up points to the crib with dealer at 45. I'll keep the six points and lead the three of clubs.

   

Saturday 4:58 AM

As has already been stated, if the Dealer was a little further back, (level with me at 40 say), I'd choose 6-9.

   

Saturday 5:05 AM

I like playing 6's 3's and 9's. So my "pick of the day"

   

Saturday 5:31 AM

Think Different(ly)!

Let's look at the 'Alternative Choice' today.

Since it's 'not even' a One-Star Discard to our Own Crib, Toss (6 9) can also often be considered when discarding 'over the board' as well.

Here it might make sense, as it allows us to retain the powerful (2 3 3) combination, which forms the 'Business End' of our hand with MANY Cuts.

When we look at risk, we must always do so in COMPARISON to the choices present. Today we must compare Toss (6 9) with Toss (2 7), which I believe to be an approximately equal comparison, especially if we take into account what the latter choice does to our hand.

The Keep (3 3 6 9) hand grows only if the Cut is a 'like' card, which has a tendency of reducing the odds of it happening. Keep (2 3 3 7) however grows if the Cut is a NEW card, one we have yet to see (including the NUMEROUS 'Ten Cards'), and this tends to boost the odds of it occurring.

So am I really saying that Toss (6 9) is actually a better choice than Toss (2 7)? Maybe and maybe not. What I really wish to stress and point out is that we may have another choice here other than the 'obvious' choice.

   

Saturday 5:39 AM

Pregnant 3s again.

   

Saturday 9:03 AM

I was tempted to toss the 9-6 or 6-7, but not comfortable with the potential. So I tossed the 7-2.

   

Saturday 9:05 AM

In the recent past would have tossed 2-7. Playing offense I will toss the 6-9. But I can still recall the last time I got burnt doing this. I stand at 48 now, so I know I will be dealing beyond my CPZ. Having given Dealer at least 2 points in the crib will play off now. Lead the 3h. "I'm a man...but I can change...if I have to...I guess.

If I had liked where i was on the board I would have kept pregnant 3s. Also on 4th Street, maybe deeper on 3rd Street 2-3-3-6 may be worth a shot.

   

Saturday 10:59 AM

Know the temptation to keep the 3-3-6-9 for six points as RAS did so for years. The remaining 46 cards (assuming we were dealt six) add points to 2-3-3-7. Points are added by AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999, 10101010, JJJJ, QQQQQ, and KKKK. Did I miss any? With 3-3-6-9, only 33, 666, 999 add points. That's a meager 8 cards that add to the value of 3-3-6-9. That's a huge difference to overcome and those few times a 3, 6, or 9 is cut will not bridge such a chasm. In addition 2-3-3-7 has the edge on pegging. After seeing the queen cut for 8 points, will peg defensively and lead the 3 of hearts. Be cautious if dealer pairs the trey in this position as most dealers would not pair at hole 45 unless holding a pair of treys. I would play the 7 spot, advance the count to 13 if dealer paired my trey. Giving up 12 pegs to dealer here would nearly shut us out in this game. We have a chance to win if we take the pegs that appear safe, slow the dealer down, and get out of the crib with small score. It seems that the Queen is of no benefit to our 6-9 discard. If dealer is playing middle cards, we can sigh with relief as the crib may be the mere two points we tossed.