April 24, 2017
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Total votes: 204 |
BigFoot Bob 624 votes Joined: April 2016 |
    Monday 3:06 AM
Hopefully the crib will make up some points missing here in my hand. |
dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:12 AM
Four card eleven and two in the crib. dec |
Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Monday 3:17 AM
I think we may have had this hand a couple weeks ago? Hand improves on any hand except a 9 or face-card, but of course a face-card helps the crib, Rosemarie44 says: On 3/24 we had the hand A-2-2-5-7-9. Could this be the one. Also submitted by Ras. Jazzselke says: Thanks, I am sure that's the one I was thinking of. |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 3:23 AM
Looks like I am with the majority this morning! Four card eleven as said by dec. Hand improves on any cut except a 9 or face card as Jazzselke explains. Only can add that this has the highest combined value of any of the three tosses: 5-Q, 5-7, or 2-7. |
james500 3924 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 4:59 AM
Ah-2-5-7 (Q-As) may peg well, and will be helped by every cut, (a 4 scores in the crib). I can't quite justify choosing it though. Probably a more appropriate choice if Pone.
I've chosen the more conventional Q-5. |
Gougie00 5731 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 5:09 AM
I'll play this way just incase of a 3 cut. |
glmccuskey 4102 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Monday 5:27 AM
Don't see much here except the 5-Q and some pegging cards. So I'll keep the peggers and throw the good stuff. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Monday 7:27 AM
Keeping the pegging cards with a possible 3 cut is clearly the best alternative. This hand, with a magic eleven should be good enough for at least three pegs. |
Inushtuk1 1487 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Monday 8:30 AM
It's all been said above. With only 9 known points will have to play on, and dump my 7 on every lead but the Ace or Deuce. Yes, including the 5, 6, or 9 lead. Must be willing to give up a run of three in order to keep my A-A-2 intact. james500 says: Hi. A 5 lead tends to be "fishing" for an X reply, (certainly when I lead a 5 anyway), so your 7 response may be close in rank, but not as risky as it might seem. Inushtuk1 says: Very true james500 |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Monday 3:14 PM
We have a logical 'split' between the Four-Card "Magic Eleven" and Toss (5 X) today. |
Coeurdelion 5595 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 4:07 PM
I think its between A-A-2-Q (5-7), A-A-5-Q (2-7), A-A-2-7 (5-Q) and 2-5-7-Q (A-A):
A-A-2-Q: 2pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 8pts A-A-5-Q: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts A-A-2-7: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts 2-5-7-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 7¼pts Potential: A-A-2-Q: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, QQQ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 6/8/12pts with AA, 222, 3333, 4444 = 13 cuts. A-A-5-Q: Improves with AA, 3333, 4444, 555, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8pts with all cuts. A-A-2-7: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/8pts with AA, 3333, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts. 2-5-7-Q: Improves with AA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7pts with 3333, 555, 6666, 8888, QQQ = 18 cuts. Pegging: I think A-A-2-7 will peg best with more low cards and a 4-card magic eleven. Position: We're both short of position but Pone only needs 3pts to be in position for their deal next. So I think we need to peg points but safely and keep Pone short. Summary: A-A-2-7 starts with ¼/1¼pts more and should peg best but 2-5-7-Q has most cuts for improvement and more cuts for a reasonable hand of 6/7pts. A-A-2-7 does have 7 cuts for 8pts with 3333, 777 and A-A-2-Q has 4 cuts for 12 cuts 3333 whilst with A-A-5-Q all 38 cuts will reach 6/8pts. Even so I'll go with the hand that has the highest starting value and should peg best and throw the best discard with 5-Q. Rosemarie44 says: Welcome back Coeurdelion. Coeurdelion says: Thanks Rosemarie44! I'd been invaded by grandchildren 8-) and run off my feet! |
HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 4:37 PM
At 38*-41 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 % A-A-2-7___4.17=3.41+6.65=14.23____21.4____18.0 A-A-2-Q___4.14+3.39+6.24=13.76____20.5____19.5 A-A-5-Q___6.26+3.52+3.87=13.65____19.6____20.6 2-5-7-Q___4.52+3.48+5.16=13.16____18.4____18.2 Offense_______L6 %____L7 % A-A-2-7_______44.3____61.1 A-A-2-Q_______39.4____59.0 A-A-5-Q_______37.2____57.7 2-5-7-Q_______39.4____60.4 A-A-2-7 is best for expected averages by 0.47pt but A-A-5-Q is best for Win %s and Loss %s but by a small margin over the rest. So as we're still in second street I'll put most weight on the expected averages. I'll select 5-Q to discard. After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead. |
Ras2829 5155 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 4:58 PM
Submitted this puzzle as see so many overlook opportunity for pegs with 4-card elevens as dealer. If a X-point card is led, play the 7 which forces the five off the play and dealer has a high percentage 31-4 (deuce for 29 followed by A-A). If opponent is holding 5-X-X-X, 5-5-X-X, or XXXX, which are very frequent hands, look for this pegging opportunity as it is often available. Other 4-card ll's which get magical pegging results as dealer are A-A-A-8. Play the 8 on any X-point lead (lower cards as well as pointed out by Inustuk1 above). Non dealer even if holding a five spot or 5-5 with X-pointers is likely to advance the count to 28, ideal for playing A-A-A for 31-8. The 2-2-2-5 for dealer offers a particularly inviting pegging coups. Play the 5 spot on a X-lead. If the five gets paired, most of the time you'll still get 2-2-2 make the count 22 and likely score 26 for 7. This works if non-dealer holding 5-X-X-X, or XXXX. Of course with the latter, the count gets to 27 with the play of dealer first deuce. You can see where that is headed. The other interesting one 4-card "eleven from heaven" is 2-3-3-3. Dealer dumps the deuce on a X-lead. This one doesn't work quite as well as the others as the play of a five breaks the treys up. If non-dealer is holding XXXX in any combination, you can see how those treys are going to stack up. Have mentioned in the past, that I qualified for the All -American Cribbage team a couple of times by holding one of these jewels on fourth street and scoring 20+ points topped by that wonderful final triple. Should mention also to take the pegs as they occur. Often see folks score a triple and not take the two pegs for the pair. Good idea to score the pegs as the play occurs. In that case, the distance between your pegs is always the amount of the last score pegged. That does two good things. It minimizes the chances that you will miss pegs and reduces the chance for disagreement as to the placement of the pegs or the distance between them. Some folks say "I have nine pegs coming" (or words to that effect), and they take all nine. Much better to take "two for the pair", move the pegs two, "six for the triple", move the pegs six, and "a go", move the pegs one. Nice to see Coeudelion's post in the mix today and that says it all. Good to see such a high number of responses to day that recognize the value of the A-A-2-7 for dealer pegging and the high average of the 5-Q to the crib. Ras2829 says: BTW HalscribCLX has it just right as to moving down the board although do hope to keep the A-A-2 intact. Would pair a Ace or deuce earlier in the play if presented by non-dealer. Would play the 7 on a 3/4 lead. Would play the deuce on a 5-6 lead. Would play the 7 on 7-8-9 or any X-pointer. |