May 15, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ccjohnson
117-107*  ?
55%
14%
7%
6%
6%
3%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 173

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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:09 AM
First vote again although I did consider K-10 but went for as much offensive chances I could get ( third King). 2,6,7,8,9,K dec
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BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Monday 3:14 AM
I did not feel good about this hand. I kept the kings and a posable run for a win, with plans to lead the seven.
Lucky starter card for myself counting first. Will lead a king.
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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:43 AM
I too kept the pair of kings and the two close card, 6 and 7.
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Jazzselke
876 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 4:40 AM
Best we can do.
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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 5:30 AM
Dec says it well above, cuts of 2,5,6,7,8,9 or K (24/46), will give us the extra two points we need.

24 cards = 4 groups of 6 cards =
24 cards = 4*13% =
24 cards = 52% of the remaining deck.
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Gougie00
3351 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:51 AM
Got lucky with the cut. Lead the 7 and play off. Had the cut card been useless, I would lead the king and pounce on any points possible.
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JQT
2114 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 6:01 AM
Since I cannot hold the Four Points that I need to ensure VICTORY with First Hand Show, I'll retain those four cards that can be helped by the most Cuts.
Reply
JRCeagle78
333 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 6:46 AM
I figured that the best offense is a good defense.
I decided that if I could not keep what I needed, the least I could do is try to blank his crib and hope my low cards could peg me to victory.

To quote the script writers of Rowan and Martin's Laugh In, "the fickle finger of fate has show me the way"
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 2:14 PM
I'll keep the pair and the close cards. we'll get the 4pts if we cut 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, KK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2%. Of course if we don't get a cut we need to peg 2pts. I'd lead the 7.
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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 2:38 PM
At 117-107* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Hold Enough %s and Peg Out %s are:

Defense_____Hold Out %____Peg Out %
3-6-K-K_______74.7__________1.5
6-7-K-K_______74.6__________2.6
3-7-K-K_______68.2__________0.0
6-10-K-K______65.1__________0.0
3-6-7-10______59.8__________2.9

6-7-K-K has a very slightly lower chance of Holding Enough but has a 1.1% better chance of Pegging Out. So I'll select 3-10 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead a K and play Defense:

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Points____Win %
K________________1.39________________100.0
7________________1.37________________100.0
6________________1.18________________100.0
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The_Bee_Mann
303 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Monday 5:26 PM
I kept the 6-7-K-K. I only need 2 more points either by pegging or by the cut. And the cut finished the game. I will avoid allowing the dealer to peg 14 points.
Reply
Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 5:46 PM
Needing four points to win with first count and dealer needing 14 pegs to win, it's a case of retaining the cards most likely to score 4 points. The 6-7-K-K wins with cut of 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, and KK. Is that 24 cards? The 3-6-K-K wins with cut of 2222, 333, 5555, 666, 9999, and KK. That looks like 22 cards. How does 3-7-K-K fare? A cut of 2222, 333, 5555, 777, 8888, and KK provide the four points needed for the win. Is that 20 cards. Think it is important down here to play the hand which has the greatest number of cuts to win. Will lead a King and play defense unless dealer pairs the King, then the game is over with my triple for six.
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