May 17, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
50-45*  ?
55%
18%
17%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 180

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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:03 AM
This would work as our wild card hand in grass roots tonight. We call it 4 of a Kind progressive Ace low , King high. Spade lead. dec
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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:11 AM
I would rather throw 6-8 than 8-9 to dealer as we are holding the other three nines. Also with tossing the 8-9 cards they would be increased in value with a 7, 8, or 10 cards. I like holding the 4 nines.
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DoctorWitty
258 votes

Joined: January 2017

   
Wednesday 3:11 AM
Would rather chuck 6 8 in the box than consecutive 8 9
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BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Wednesday 3:24 AM
In my quick counting I ended up with same point if a six is cut keeping the 4 nines or the 6-9-9-9. Tossing the 6-8 pr or 8-9 a seven cut or added to the crib is the same damage and having a six in my hand is worth the risk of hitting a ten. Lets see what we learn today.
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JQT
2114 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 4:49 AM
Both of these hands are virtually identical, as many have already discovered.

Each hand is worth a 'static' Dozen Points, and each hand is helped up to Twenty Points but only by the Cut of a 6 Card (666).

It sounds a bit silly to say that I like the "variety" of Keep (6 9 9 9), because I often talk about pegging with "safety in numbers" in mind, but this concept does tend to work best when that number is lower in rank than a 9 Card.

The problem with having all higher-ranking cards is such that we can sometimes get "jammed up" and it can leave us vulnerable against a hand of low-ranking cards, such as a Dealer who holds Keep (A 4 4 4).

For example, with four 9 Cards, the pegging could proceed: 9 (9) A (10) 9 (19) 4 (23) "go" 4 (27=2) 4 (31=8). 9 (9) 9 (18-3) which has us being out-pegged 10-to-3! Having just one "out" card can usually protect us from this fate.

As far as the Crib is concerned, Toss (8 9) is valued at about 5.83 Points, and Toss (6 8) is valued at about 5.86 Points (Schell Composite), so it's basically a "wash" as far as the two Crib Values are concerned. But what about Delta?

I was recently "schooled in Delta" by Coeurdelion, and so I also looked up the corresponding Negative Delta for both discards, and I found that Toss (8 9) has a Negative Delta of about -0.17 Points, and Toss (6 8) has a Negative Delta of about -0.09 Points (Hessel DS.EXE Tool), and the higher number works in our favour here (since we are Pone).

But even though one figure is almost DOUBLE the other, these are rather small Deltas, and it's only a difference of 0.08 Points between them, so this too can virtually be neglected.

What we're left with today is therefore almost-identical Hands and almost-identical Cribs, but maybe we can muster some small advantage in the PEGGING if we retain Keep (6 9 9 9) instead of Keep (9 9 9 9).

After the King Cut, just like those who decided to Toss (6 8), I'll lead a 9 Card! ; - )
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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:28 AM
I'll keep the escape card, and lead the 9 of Spades.
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glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 5:52 AM
I like this better for a little flexibility in the pegging. I'll lead the nine of spades.
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JRCeagle78
333 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 9:30 AM
Other than avoiding 8d-9d discard, this decision was rather easy.

Keeping the 6 as an escape card, (Surprise! Surprise!) I'll lead the 9.
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:37 PM
Its between 6-9-9-9 (8-9) and 9-9-9-9 (6-8):

6-9-9-9: 12pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = 6¼pts

9-9-9-9: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = 6½pts

Potential:

6-9-9-9: Improves with 666 = 3 cuts = 3/46 = 6.5% up to 20pts

9-9-9-9: Improves with 666 = 3 cuts = 3/46 = 6.5% up to 20pts

Pegging:

I think both hands will much the same but 9-9-9-9 has no room for manoeuvre so I think 6-9-9-9 will peg slightly better.

Position:

At 50-45* Dealer is in position and we don't have a sufficient lead. So I'll play Offense but with caution to make sure opponent doesn't improve their position too much.

Summary:

According to Schell there is virtually no difference in the Crib expected average. I don't think there's much differnce in negative delta and the difference in pegging is slight but I'll go with this and throw the 8-9.
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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:57 PM
At 50-45* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offense____Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %___W6 %
6-9-9-9*___12.52+1.02+(-4.91)=8.63____26.7___47.5
9-9-9-9____12.52+0.83+(-4.87)=8.48____25.2___46.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
6-9-9-9*______16.9____33.6
9-9-9-9_______16.8____33.9

* an unsuited 8-9

6-9-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.15pt and is also for Win %s and Loss %s by a slight margin. So I'll select an unsuited 8-9 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___Net Pegging Pts._W5 %___W6 %__L5 %___L6 %
9__________(-1.59)______24.1___44.3__13.5___36.2
6__________(-1.98)______22.9___43.1__13.8___36.9
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Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 6:12 PM
It's all been said. The 8-9 does produce a slightly larger crib (see HalscribCLX analysis above) because it connects to the frequent 10-J discards by dealer where as the 6-8 doesn't reach those. Having said that, it is important as JQT points out to have an escape card if some pegging situation of benefit to dealer seems to be developing. Will lead the 9s and take the pegs that seem reasonably safe.
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