May 17, 2017
55% | |||||
18% | |||||
17% | |||||
5% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
Total votes: 180 |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Wednesday 3:03 AM
This would work as our wild card hand in grass roots tonight. We call it 4 of a Kind progressive Ace low , King high. Spade lead. dec |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Wednesday 3:11 AM
I would rather throw 6-8 than 8-9 to dealer as we are holding the other three nines. Also with tossing the 8-9 cards they would be increased in value with a 7, 8, or 10 cards. I like holding the 4 nines. |
DoctorWitty 686 votes Joined: January 2017 |
    Wednesday 3:11 AM
Would rather chuck 6 8 in the box than consecutive 8 9 |
BigFoot Bob 624 votes Joined: April 2016 |
    Wednesday 3:24 AM
In my quick counting I ended up with same point if a six is cut keeping the 4 nines or the 6-9-9-9. Tossing the 6-8 pr or 8-9 a seven cut or added to the crib is the same damage and having a six in my hand is worth the risk of hitting a ten. Lets see what we learn today. |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Wednesday 4:49 AM
Both of these hands are virtually identical, as many have already discovered.
Each hand is worth a 'static' Dozen Points, and each hand is helped up to Twenty Points but only by the Cut of a 6 Card (666). It sounds a bit silly to say that I like the "variety" of Keep (6 9 9 9), because I often talk about pegging with "safety in numbers" in mind, but this concept does tend to work best when that number is lower in rank than a 9 Card. The problem with having all higher-ranking cards is such that we can sometimes get "jammed up" and it can leave us vulnerable against a hand of low-ranking cards, such as a Dealer who holds Keep (A 4 4 4). For example, with four 9 Cards, the pegging could proceed: 9 (9) A (10) 9 (19) 4 (23) "go" 4 (27=2) 4 (31=8). 9 (9) 9 (18-3) which has us being out-pegged 10-to-3! Having just one "out" card can usually protect us from this fate. As far as the Crib is concerned, Toss (8 9) is valued at about 5.83 Points, and Toss (6 8) is valued at about 5.86 Points (Schell Composite), so it's basically a "wash" as far as the two Crib Values are concerned. But what about Delta? I was recently "schooled in Delta" by Coeurdelion, and so I also looked up the corresponding Negative Delta for both discards, and I found that Toss (8 9) has a Negative Delta of about -0.17 Points, and Toss (6 8) has a Negative Delta of about -0.09 Points (Hessel DS.EXE Tool), and the higher number works in our favour here (since we are Pone). But even though one figure is almost DOUBLE the other, these are rather small Deltas, and it's only a difference of 0.08 Points between them, so this too can virtually be neglected. What we're left with today is therefore almost-identical Hands and almost-identical Cribs, but maybe we can muster some small advantage in the PEGGING if we retain Keep (6 9 9 9) instead of Keep (9 9 9 9). After the King Cut, just like those who decided to Toss (6 8), I'll lead a 9 Card! ; - ) Samgash says: Good lead! Samgash says: Good lead! |
james500 3895 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Wednesday 5:28 AM
I'll keep the escape card, and lead the 9 of Spades. |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Wednesday 5:52 AM
I like this better for a little flexibility in the pegging. I'll lead the nine of spades. cribbagepogo says: Hey Gary, can you Email me Ras' Email address? Thanks, Paul cribbagepogo says: Hey Gary, can you Email me Ras' Email address? Thanks, Paul Ras2829 says: Hi cribbagepogo: My Email address is raswino29@outlook.com. Ras2829 says: Hi cribbagepogo: My Email address is raswino29@outlook.com. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Wednesday 9:30 AM
Other than avoiding 8d-9d discard, this decision was rather easy.
Keeping the 6 as an escape card, (Surprise! Surprise!) I'll lead the 9. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Wednesday 3:37 PM
Its between 6-9-9-9 (8-9) and 9-9-9-9 (6-8):
6-9-9-9: 12pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = 6¼pts 9-9-9-9: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = 6½pts Potential: 6-9-9-9: Improves with 666 = 3 cuts = 3/46 = 6.5% up to 20pts 9-9-9-9: Improves with 666 = 3 cuts = 3/46 = 6.5% up to 20pts Pegging: I think both hands will much the same but 9-9-9-9 has no room for manoeuvre so I think 6-9-9-9 will peg slightly better. Position: At 50-45* Dealer is in position and we don't have a sufficient lead. So I'll play Offense but with caution to make sure opponent doesn't improve their position too much. Summary: According to Schell there is virtually no difference in the Crib expected average. I don't think there's much differnce in negative delta and the difference in pegging is slight but I'll go with this and throw the 8-9. |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Wednesday 4:57 PM
At 50-45* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_________________Our Offense____Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %___W6 % 6-9-9-9*___12.52+1.02+(-4.91)=8.63____26.7___47.5 9-9-9-9____12.52+0.83+(-4.87)=8.48____25.2___46.5 Offense_______L5 %____L6 % 6-9-9-9*______16.9____33.6 9-9-9-9_______16.8____33.9 * an unsuited 8-9 6-9-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.15pt and is also for Win %s and Loss %s by a slight margin. So I'll select an unsuited 8-9 to discard. After the K cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense): Lead___Net Pegging Pts._W5 %___W6 %__L5 %___L6 % 9__________(-1.59)______24.1___44.3__13.5___36.2 6__________(-1.98)______22.9___43.1__13.8___36.9 |
Ras2829 5125 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Wednesday 6:12 PM
It's all been said. The 8-9 does produce a slightly larger crib (see HalscribCLX analysis above) because it connects to the frequent 10-J discards by dealer where as the 6-8 doesn't reach those. Having said that, it is important as JQT points out to have an escape card if some pegging situation of benefit to dealer seems to be developing. Will lead the 9s and take the pegs that seem reasonably safe. Ras2829 says: If playing in our GR club, would have retained 9999 as 4 of a kind without the starter card pays $5. Think what I might do for a $100! |