May 19, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by jqt
101*-107  ?
34%
31%
21%
6%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 166

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BigFoot Bob
432 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Friday 3:06 AM
Tossing the 5-9 which does work with this hand but could spike my crib. 3 hands to 1. It will be a tough one.
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Rosemarie44
493 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:29 AM
Good one JQT. Believe it is between toss A-5 and 5-9. Sweet sixteen with 5-9 and "It pays to flush" with A-5????? My first choice was the flush and I will go with that today.
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mfetchCT425
229 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 4:02 AM
I liked the powerful 5-J to our crib. The 3-card magic 11 of A-A-9 should be advantageous with respect to pegging, both as a defensive strategy and potential offensive opportunities if they become available. Would have kept the flush but did not like the A-5 to our crib, especially with a known A, 4, and 9 in our hand, decreasing the number of helpful cuts for the crib when tossing that combo. Don't like that cut. Will take pegs when I can, but will avoid giving up pairs royal (trips) or getting trapped in runs that may put opp out after count of hand. If cut was a "10" card, would peg defensively, but with an 8 cut, we may need some pegs to get down the board.
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Gougie00
3178 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 4:59 AM
When in doubt, Face-Five.

The 8 is useless to me. If the pone is leading an 8 or a 7, I might be in trouble. Otherwise, I am thinking offense to get as close as possible for next deal in what I should try for.

Nice thunderstorm here last night. It cooled things down to the 70s.
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dec
3639 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 5:34 AM
To above on the flush so close a .03 difference in favor as far as the hand averages go... however the pegging and we do have to be wary could at be a dynamic pegger or at least a defensive stalwart and even a six point crib here would help up get closer to that an important first count. offense. dec
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glmccuskey
2315 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 6:03 AM
I like keeping the A-A-4 together. Then it's 5-J to the crib.
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james500
1445 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 6:13 AM
Few options here.
Was tempted by A-A-5-9 (J-4) for its 9-A-A eleven and its 9-5-A-A sixteen, but I don't like the J-4 discard with a pair of Aces out of circulation.

I'll keep A-A-4-J (5-9) which still provides me the option of an eleven and a sixteen, but also guarantees me two points in the crib.

X(10)-9(19)-X(29)-A(30)-go-A(31/4).
X(10)-5(15/2)-5(20/2)-9(29)-go-A(30)-A(31/4).

X(10)-J(20)-X(30)-A(31/2).
X(10)-4(14)-X(24)-A(25)-5(30)-A(31/2).
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wasa
626 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 7:06 AM
Need to prevent opponent from getting pegs, but need enough points to go out next show. Flush appears best to me.
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Inushtuk1
271 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 8:22 AM
Well what do you know? JQT finally came up with a good one. ; - ). No, just kidding. Another great puzzle. I see mfetchCT425's point about the negative delta attached to the (A-5) toss. But at this score my main concern is keeping the Pone from crossing the finish line before I get to count. I think I can best do that with the flush. I have 4 cards of different ranks to choose from as my response to the opening lead. Better defensive flexibility. Besides, who wants to start with only 7 known points when we can start with 9? Of course if I get a poor cut I'll be wishing I had kept it A-A-4-J with 9 known points and more offensive potential with the eleven *and* the sixteen.

It figures. Pone cuts me an 8. Nothing else to do. Play defense to the lead.
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bbaer1
2019 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Friday 8:59 AM
Maximizing my points here, have a nice spread of cards for defense.
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JQT
2041 votes

Joined: October 2008

Friday 9:58 AM
Here is one way this played out against a strong hand by Pone with a 5 Cut that only helped the Dealer:

Cribbage Hand of the Day: May 19, 2017

(101*-107) (Ah As 4h 5s 9h Jh)

opPone Keep (7s 8c 9s 9c) Toss (5d Td) vs
Dealer Keep (Ah 4h 9h Jh) Toss (As 5s) Cut 5c

Pegging: 9 (9) 4! (13) 9 (22) 9 (31=4) . 8 (8) J (18) 7 (25) A (26=1)

opPone Peg 0 plus Hand 10 = Total 10
Dealer Peg 5 plus Hand 10 plus Crib 14 = Total 29

Final Score = (121-117)

Ah, I could have made it all the way from an Initial Score of (92*-110)!
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Ras2829
2672 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 2:12 PM
The answer to two compelling questions provides the basis for this choice. First who counts first next deal? Who has the pegging advantage as dealer next deal? At 101 RAS needs 20 points. Not much chance of that in a single hand - that happens once in each five deals to include pegs, hand and crib scores. RAS need both deals. What are chances of non-dealer scoring 14 points on this deal to end the game? It's five to one against doing so. So need to limit opponent pegs. As Inushtuk1 points out, choosing defense, play off the lead which is generally a biased presentation. Limit non-dealer pegs on this hand - average non-dealer hand to include pegs is 9-10 points. That would put them at 116-117 with the upcoming deal. If opponent picks up a couple of pegs, what looms as a possible win for me ends up as a likely loss. If cautious on the pegging, have a good chance to win this game. Holding the flush offers the greatest variety of cards with a good spread from Ace to Jack. Our discard of the A-5 also gives the retained A and Jack some added safety in the pegging sequence.
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Coeurdelion
3156 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 2:24 PM
For this hand I feel strongly drawn tp A-A-4-9 (5-J). It starts with 4 + 2pts and A-A-4-9 has great potential with the A-A-4 combination and will also peg well with the 3-card magic eleven and of course the very strong 5-J to the box. But the flush is also worth looking at, as is A-A-4-J (5-9):

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

AH-4-9-J: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 11½pts

A-A-4-J: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/12pts with AA. 444, 555, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts.

AH-4-9-J: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/11/12pts AA, 444, 555, 10101010, JJJ = 15 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for an extra 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-A-4-J: Improves with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 999 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with AA, 444 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well but I feel A-A-4-9 should peg best.

Position:

With Pone at 107 if they score the average 10pts they will be in danger of pegging out before we can have our first show next deal. So I'll play Defense to keep them short.

Summary:

I'm really not sure what to go for here. All three hands score 11-11½pts. The test of a good puzzle eh JQT? I think that both hands with the A-A-4 combination may peg well playing Offense but pegging Defensively the flush will perhaps be better? It does also start with a slightly higher expected average so I'll throw the suited A-5.
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HalscribCLX
2901 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 4:01 PM
At 101*-107 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
AH-4-9-J__8.70+(-1.93)+5.27=12.04____11.3____66.2
A-A-4-J___8.72+(-2.37)+5.25=11.60____15.3____62.0
A-A-4-9___6.78+(-2.39)+6.89=11.28____12.0____59.1

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
AH-4-9-J______17.2____27.8
A-A-4-J_______21.1____30.8
A-A-4-9_______21.1____34.5

The flush is best for expected averages by 0.44pt and is also slightly best for Win %s and significantly better for Loss %s. So I'll select AS-5 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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